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AUD/USD

  • #95,341
  • Feb 5, 2016 2:49pm Feb 5, 2016 2:49pm
might be at a level for some retracement, i will consider hedging with audhkd to lock the profit if necessary. and do not forget to check your weekly chart if you enjoy beautiful view.
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As Above, So Below
  • #95,342
  • Feb 5, 2016 3:06pm Feb 5, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting tashkent
might be at a level for some retracement, i will consider hedging with audhkd to lock the profit if necessary. and do not forget to check your weekly chart if you enjoy beautiful view. {image}
I see a long legged doji on the weekly. Perhaps a small bounce up to start next week before another drop?
  • #95,343
  • Feb 5, 2016 3:23pm Feb 5, 2016 3:23pm
Weeekly Cftc Report:

AUD short 26K vs. 33K short prior week.
  • #95,344
  • Feb 5, 2016 3:38pm Feb 5, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting Bushi-pips
{quote} I see a long legged doji on the weekly. Perhaps a small bounce up to start next week before another drop?
i have some thoughts, will share later
As Above, So Below
  • #95,345
  • Feb 5, 2016 10:50pm Feb 5, 2016 10:50pm
It is my analiz in next week.What do you think about that? A/U.
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  • #95,346
  • Feb 6, 2016 12:33am Feb 6, 2016 12:33am
Quoting Sitkhi
It is my analiz in next week.What do you think about that? A/U.{image}{image}
I think we have to wait and see if it holds or breaks through the channel.

It looks like it has some support atm and It may bounce up to the 61.8% which has some resistance there then pull back down again.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #95,347
  • Edited 1:16am Feb 6, 2016 1:03am | Edited 1:16am
Quoting Sitkhi
It is my analiz in next week.What do you think about that? A/U.{image}{image}
Its possible , it is the markets after all, anything is possible, I would be more inclined to think it goes to .7000 area again, its already sliced thru the 500 fib mark on the last swing high, just saying , then look for a bounce to the 500 mark , its free to wait . At some point in time that should get tested again. not saying what I drew in will happen but thats what Im watching for to develop. Pretty good whack at the quarterly pivot, 7000 area is last quarters low. Coincidentally the quarterly pivot is also a retest of a trendline I have on my monthly chart (little red circle) Fib projections on monthly are from the swing in the big white circle.
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  • #95,348
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:18am Feb 6, 2016 1:18am
How about this guys?
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #95,349
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:27am Feb 6, 2016 1:27am
Quoting PaulDaemon
How about this guys? {image}
Exactly what Im watching
  • #95,350
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:34am Feb 6, 2016 1:34am
Quoting PaulDaemon
How about this guys? {image}
Looks like my chart too. Expecting a slow retrace up to 7150 or so on light news to start the week and then the Yellen testimony to push it down.
  • #95,351
  • Feb 6, 2016 5:33am Feb 6, 2016 5:33am
Quoting dab
{quote} I don't think the move up in A/U suggests any disregard of fundamentals. In my opinion it's just a reminder that there are two currencies (and hence economies) involved and possibly too many commentators in here focus on the Australian economy and forget that US economy may not be as rosy as the FED would like it to be.
Hey Dab you were Obviously right that part of the cause of the rise in the AUD/USD this week was really due to fall in USD against other currencies. While rising against the USD this week it was trending down against the Yen. Last night before the NFP I closed my short on AUD/USD for 15 pips profit and shorted AUD/JPY at 83.88, partly because trend favored it, and partly due to uncertainty of what NFP would do to AUD/USD pair, I felt safer with the Yen. I had TP at 82.55, which missed being hit by 2.2 pips, so I'm still in trade with 112 pips on the table. So 15 plus 112 =127 pips after switching pairs. If I had stayed in AUD/USD I'd have 140 pips in hand but my SL would have almost been taken out. Summary....USD/JPY dropped 439 pips this week. AUD/JPY dropped 324 pips this week. AUD/USD only dropped 20 pips this week. Last night AUD/USD dropped slightly more than AUD/JPY, which seems to bring the correlation with USD/JPY back into balance for the day, as also evidenced by the closing daily candle on USD/JPY. I know there's more to figuring the dollar value of the pips than these numbers, but if you take the 324 from 439=115-20=95 it seems the Aussie held better against the Yen than it should have. Of course the pairs are subject to the fluctuations and differences in supply-demand etc., and the rebalancing of the currencies, such as the USD value being re weighted in light of the expectation of interest rate changes being delayed, but I think the math is interesting. Comparing weekly close on the three pairs, USD/JPY has HUGE bearish engulfing candle covering 2 previous weeks. Also threatening to break head and shoulders on weekly chart. AUD/JPY has a strong bearish engulfing candle. The AUD/USD candle, while I'm not certain of the exact technical term, is a bearish doji with long upper shadow. It's interesting to note that it is however almost IDENTICAL to the the fourth candle back on weekly USD/JPY just before a STRONG rise of appx 400 pips for two weeks. Food for thought... charts say more decline in USD/JPY to come. My thought if inclined to short Aussie, the Yen is the better option.
  • #95,352
  • Feb 6, 2016 5:44am Feb 6, 2016 5:44am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} I think we are going higher after NFP so I will be looking to buying the dips.
I had a long at 0.7172 before NFP but unfortunately it hit my sl.

After NFP were released EUR/USD went down & I thought it's going to reverse despite the numbers which it did make a come back but AUD just kept going lower & lower, even Gold was going higher but it didn't help AUD.

I still think the EUR/USD will go higher next week which will cause AUD to go lower so I'm staying away from AUD as it's already fallen a lot, it's risky to trade, wish I kept my short from 0.723x.
  • #95,353
  • Feb 6, 2016 6:10am Feb 6, 2016 6:10am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} I had a long at 0.7172 before NFP but unfortunately it hit my sl. After NFP were released EUR/USD went down & I thought it's going to reverse despite the numbers which it did make a come back but AUD just kept going lower & lower, even Gold was going higher but it didn't help AUD. I still think the EUR/USD will go higher next week which will cause AUD to go lower so I'm staying away from AUD as it's already fallen a lot, it's risky to trade, wish I kept my short from 0.723x.

Very bullish weekly close candle on EUR/USD, which agrees with USD/YEN bearish engulfing weekly saying short USD. I'm very interested to hear analysis of USD/YEN chart. The close and open bodies of three of the last four weekly candles line up with open of 2nd Feb 2015. In particular the close of this week's candle is 19 pips below open of 2nd Feb 2015, which is what I perceive to be the lowest body on the rising side of the formation of a head and shoulder pattern dating back to Nov 2014. Could a break and weekly close below here target 700 pips?
  • #95,354
  • Feb 6, 2016 7:11am Feb 6, 2016 7:11am
AUDUSD....

Focusing on Sell Opportunity Next week
  • #95,355
  • Feb 6, 2016 3:51pm Feb 6, 2016 3:51pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hey Dab you were Obviously right that part of the cause of the rise in the AUD/USD this week was really due to fall in USD against other currencies. While rising against the USD this week it was trending down against the Yen. Last night before the NFP I closed my short on AUD/USD for 15 pips profit and shorted AUD/JPY at 83.88, partly because trend favored it, and partly due to uncertainty of what NFP would do to AUD/USD pair, I felt safer with the Yen. I had TP at 82.55, which missed being hit by 2.2 pips, so I'm still in trade with 112...
You have many interesting points. Personally I'm just trading A/U until I'm 100% sure of my methodolgoy and maybe until I'm no longer working my traditional job.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,356
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:51pm Feb 7, 2016 3:51pm
Aussie for a week in my head.
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HumbleTraders
  • #95,357
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:38pm Feb 7, 2016 4:38pm
Quoting dab
{quote} You have many interesting points. Personally I'm just trading A/U until I'm 100% sure of my methodolgoy and maybe until I'm no longer working my traditional job.
Got out of my short AUD/JPY at 82.71. 100plus pips in pocket (nice for a change). Dab I'm with you mate. My goal here is to become consistently profitable enough to quit my dreary job. No get rich plan. Just get out. Trying to learn from those who have done it.
  • #95,358
  • Feb 7, 2016 8:10pm Feb 7, 2016 8:10pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} My goal here is to become consistently profitable enough to quit my dreary job. No get rich plan. Just get out.
This is what we should all be aspiring to achieve. Not too much, just enough...
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #95,359
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:07pm Feb 7, 2016 9:07pm
I'm now flat and will be waiting for at least 50 pip move in one direction or the other before I'm likely to decide on next entry.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,360
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:15am Feb 8, 2016 12:15am
Moodys downgrade Western Australia to Aa2

For those who aren't aware what WA produces its resources energy and agriculture. Australia's powerhouse of primary production .

Meanwhile over the other side of the country where the RBA resides they cant see a problem .
Admittedly Moodys haven't always made great judgement but the writing was on the wall for Australia's wealth state .
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