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  • #139,001
  • Feb 4, 2016 8:30am Feb 4, 2016 8:30am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} 1) When you mention 1.097 is the top point during last dovish slighty FED. In terms of swing trading, that does it mean that is a point where the market will be hanging around before next FED? Thanks in advance
No its FA res/supp level on rate differentials with the current FED rates (after the hike DEC) and ECB (last micro cut). We went overboard because the last JAN selloff in Equities triggered expectations that FED (dovish FED) wont be able to cut 3 or 4 times this year...

Its just noise for now as both the Y/Q and M held steady ...track it with M and/or Q not with anything below cause those are MACRO FA levels and are meant to be trade with macro flows for direction not with your average swing trade...

------

In any case NY coming, we overshot across the FX board but Dollar is entering in MAJOR support only GOLD with crumbs left to complete the move. We'll need something massive in Dollar to break it further down so expecting hypersensitive FX sessions until NFP close the deal for the week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,002
  • Feb 4, 2016 9:00am Feb 4, 2016 9:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} No its FA res/supp level on rate differentials with the current FED rates (after the hike DEC) and ECB (last micro cut). We went overboard because the last JAN selloff in Equities triggered expectations that FED (dovish FED) wont be able to cut 3 or 4 times this year... Its just noise for now as both the Y/Q and M held steady ...track it with M and/or Q not with anything below cause those are MACRO FA levels and are meant to be trade with macro flows for direction not with your average swing trade... ------ In any case NY coming, we overshot...
sisse, wanna kindly ask.... r u planning to trade DAX in near future? I think its gonna be bottoming out very very soon around 921x - this/next week. Would want to load short/mid/long term legs as its going to be all allined. What worries me = SP500 stays choppy and could drag DAX down again. Any idea is welcomed
  • #139,003
  • Feb 4, 2016 9:32am Feb 4, 2016 9:32am
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, wanna kindly ask.... r u planning to trade DAX in near future? I think its gonna be bottoming out very very soon around 921x - this/next week. Would want to load short/mid/long term legs as its going to be all allined. What worries me = SP500 stays choppy and could drag DAX down again. Any idea is welcomed
Not for the mid or long term mate... I would only consider loading for the mid/long term in European Equities by the end of year (mid Q4 on my current forecast). On the short term agree with 921x (I got 923x which is the same) for a bounce to the top of the neutral range but we will need a very strong hand from NFP ...

Key and strong moves in Dollar are given screaming signals of whats about to come. Markets are aligning for a new clean sweep (test of lows and complete the crumbs left in both side of the Atlantic) in equities (via OIL) until CB's step back in March. In the case of DAX, dark clouds are already on top, losing 923x.x unlocks a rather fast and scary leg to 766x.x ...

For now only a strong NFP and German GDP will unlock the direct trade 923x -> 10000.x but it looks rather weak and feeble give the latest massive moves in correlated markets...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,004
  • Feb 4, 2016 10:12am Feb 4, 2016 10:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not for the mid or long term mate... I would only consider loading for the mid/long term in European Equities by the end of year (mid Q4 on my current forecast). On the short term agree with 921x (I got 923x which is the same) for a bounce to the top of the neutral range but we will need a very strong hand from NFP ... Key and strong moves in Dollar are given screaming signals of whats about to come. Markets are aligning for a new clean sweep (test of lows and complete the crumbs left in both side of the Atlantic) in equities...
hmmm, I wish we were trading last years logic - it was so much more simple than this!! Bet I would be completely lost with all the action across everything without this thread!

if we continue....

1. u see strong NFP print as the only coming data that can up-hold the sentiment?

2. if NFP fails = to complete the crumbs equals to test these lvls (177x SP500, 923x DAX), right?

3. you really think that those lvls are the ones to deter FED from hiking in march? If those are final targets of mid term swing shouldnt it be ok for FED that those legs terminated, so they hike and markets chop around and slowly grind up?

4. if it really detered FED from hiking in march.... what are the implications for dollar? Not much right? the march hike is already priced out pretty much so E/U is gonna stay capped by 1,128 as absolute max and wait for the ECB delivery of the momentum for the mid term leg.

4. you talked about dark clouds above DAX.... is there anything special about DAX which makes it more dark? I would expect DAX to have the brightest clouds among equities given ECB policy.

5. Plus you talk about DAX losing 923x and opening 766x = if this happenes. I expect the same to happen analogically on SP500 - loosing 177x. But in this scenarion SP500 would open lvls around like 1600 or lower. So does it mean that you also count with a possible scenarion of a full blown equities crises/crash? What would be the implication for E/U?

Answer and I will hail you forever Thank you
  • #139,005
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:49am Feb 4, 2016 11:49am
I also got out of sync a bit here on the dollar side. It was just the magnitude/volatility of the move by itself that caught me off guard more than anything else.

Actually had to revise my E/U charts (was playing too close to the market the last couple of weeks.) after the fact and the technical catalyst was Last year and last month (just.) holding above (2015Q3) quarterly low before moving to and testing that same open (which encompassed the August risk leg and unwind after the close.)

We have overshot even those levels now but it's unlikely we hold the breach for the week even with a relatively bad NFP, imo. DXY testing the huge 96.27 as well so this should be close to the end of the road. It's just those potential threats that have been dogging us all year from oil/China that can throw us for a loop but if it comes to that perhaps the dollar will also start catching some safety flows and gain some genuine strength in its own right.
  • #139,006
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:03pm Feb 4, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting IMARICH1
...., to ask a question to sisse which will probably cause me some correction. Why would you wait and take a position for NFP instead of getting in at around YYP .114X,

Quoting sisse
First because i don't trade pivots second let me recap a few points I have been repeating over and over the last couple of months and i hope one day they will trigger something in your trading:

 

  1. The money is not in the levels but when to trade them....

​
sisse,

Well, I can see another mistake I made. Here I thought I missed the boat a couple of weeks ago when we closed below .0860 and then .0830 and now I loaded the boat only to see PA go to .1240. I know you indicated overshoots are good and I get that; however, I really didn't see this big of a move. I did have .12XX as strong steel R (posts last yr I offered when you challenged me)-but, never suspected it would get this far. It did.

Smart money waited as you said and is why you can get a better position than me for Non-Farm. I questioned why you didn't at least position at .114X and now I know. I did at that level and around .108X and smaller ones at .097X in case Short term Leg fizzled which is obviously was a far cry from that as your MAP clearly was followed.

I appreciate all your points and will continue to take them in. Perhaps, I am a slow learner. For now, I would think everything is priced in and short term leg should be done; but, maybe Equities and Oil are still keeping it alive before MID TERM LEG.

DOLLAR had the 96.50 for London R. Gator wanted 96.70. Another Hour close above 96.50.

  • #139,007
  • Edited 1:09pm Feb 4, 2016 12:57pm | Edited 1:09pm
ufff ...plenty of information to cover so lets go one by one..

Quoting chester123
1. u see strong NFP print as the only coming data that can up-hold the sentiment?
--> Yes in the short term. A strong NFP will put us back to earth on the FED dovish part and pull the emergency hand break in Equities. Anything else ...

Quote
1if NFP fails = to complete the crumbs equals to test these lvls (177x SP500, 923x DAX), right?

--> Yes 1778x in S&P will be naked for a test. A major flop will just add momentum in the leg.

Quote
you really think that those lvls are the ones to deter FED from hiking in march? If those are final targets of mid term swing shouldnt it be ok for FED that those legs terminated, so they hike and markets chop around and slowly grind up?

--> I don't think March hikes are in play. We pretty much already killed March hikes on the last FED (we kicked the can to early summer). The odds will plummet to zero with a NFP flop.

Quote
if it really detered FED from hiking in march.... what are the implications for dollar? Not much right? the march hike is already priced out pretty much so E/U is gonna stay capped by 1,128 as absolute max and wait for the ECB delivery of the momentum for the mid term leg.

--> The last +/- 500 ticks rally from 1.073x are pretty much digested (the test 96.5x in DX). A major flop in NFP with a test of lows in US Equities may open expectations for FED back-pedalling on rates but that will be catastrophic for the US and world economy. More importantly it will be a major blow in confidence opening pandoras box for a MAJOR BEAR market worldwide.

--> So agree we pretty much already digested the move. 1.128x (in Euro as ref of max ext) is the FA resistance on FED back-pedalling to pre-Dec hike but as you clearly point out ECB will hammer down the other side via +QE on March without counting a collapse in Equities via Risk that will also strengthen the Dollar.

In simple words, the odds of Dollar going much further down these levels are very slim to say the least in the current circumstances

Quote
you talked about dark clouds above DAX.... is there anything special about DAX which makes it more dark? I would expect DAX to have the brightest clouds among equities given ECB policy..

--> Deflation (via risk & OIL) derailing the recovery....

Quote
. Plus you talk about DAX losing 923x and opening 766x = if this happenes. I expect the same to happen analogically on SP500 ... So does it mean that you also count with a possible scenarios of a full blown equities crises/crash? What would be the implication for E/U?

--> Yes a crash will be the scenario in play. A 'flash' crash.

Bastards like usual rode the FREE money QE PIG on a rush and blindly leaving an unmarked path on the way up so TA wise its a blank page down below 177x. Macro numbers DO NOT support 1550.xx in S&P right now but a RISK flash crash via China crashing with force and OIL collapsing to the lows of the $20 handle will let a TA clean map for a -20% correction on air until CBs step in and save the day one more time ...

--> European equities are better protected short term via ECB QE and negative rates, however in a major global crash wont hold as good as the US as the macro numbers are very feeble and barely turning around from the Crisis.

--> The implication for the Euro ...uff well in a scenario like that I would say closer to the 2008 Lehman crash time but with a lot wider zigzag volatility as it will get hammered from both sides:

--> Dovish ECB vs FED back-pedalling |||| with risk pulling to Dollar vs Euro carry trade on the pullbacks via ECB negative rates.


Meaning very sharp legs to both sides until we blow on Equities where Dollar will be the one and only one KING left until we find floor ...

For now...lets focus on the norm rather than on the extreme case ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,008
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:23pm Feb 4, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting sisse
ufff ...plenty of information to cover so lets go one by one.. {quote} --> Yes in the short term. A strong NFP will put us back to earth on the FED dovish part and pull the emergency hand break in Equities. Anything else ... {quote} --> Yes 1778x in S&P will be naked for a test. A major flop will just add momentum in the leg. {quote} --> I don't think March hikes are in play. We pretty much already killed March hikes on the last FED (we kicked the can to early summer). The odds will plummet to zero with a NFP flop. {quote} --> The last +/- 500 ticks...
Awesome. Thank you so much! These explanations always get me back on track - im always gonna be shocked by the simle logic you put into it! For me as a not so experienced trader its always hard to keep things in the right perspective and nor to under/overvalue some phenomena and this always helps
  • #139,009
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:44pm Feb 4, 2016 1:44pm
It has been an outstanding 2 days in the FX board no doubt about it but something major is cooking in the background...

Tracking extremely closely the closing range. I am expecting REAL money to step in and make major decision rather soon. As early as today pre NFP....

OIL losing 31.4x on the close and US equities (ref S&P 1897.xx) will trigger imminent MAJOR break downs alerts across the board. GOLD is crystal clear as it usually is when RISK is cooking with 118x wide open for a test with a soft push from anywhere.

On the currency board not much to see at these levels, Dollar crashing in key Support before NFP while Euro trading air as collateral after 1.097x stops were raised. For the roll tracking 1.121x as soft reference to mark the micro flip zone for the NFP flows ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,010
  • Feb 4, 2016 3:07pm Feb 4, 2016 3:07pm
Quoting sisse
It has been an outstanding 2 days in the FX board no doubt about it but something major is cooking in the background... Tracking extremely closely the closing range. I am expecting REAL money to step in and make major decision rather soon. As early as today pre NFP.... OIL losing 31.4x on the close and US equities (ref S&P 1897.xx) will trigger imminent MAJOR break downs alerts across the board. GOLD is crystal clear as it usually is when RISK is cooking with 118x wide open for a test with a soft push from anywhere. On the currency board not much...
Hello Sisse, the raise of stops was due to technicals or fundamentals? Thank you.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #139,011
  • Feb 4, 2016 4:05pm Feb 4, 2016 4:05pm
Equities easily held giving the heads up for tomorrow NFP. Dollar also held first soft test on key support while OIL barely but held at the end too. Euro with a slightly bearish daily close and we are set till tomorrow NFP....

Markets look set for a inline/better than expected numbers unlocking a decent rally in Equities for the next few weeks....

Quoting troneras
{quote} Hello Sisse, the raise of stops was due to technicals or fundamentals? Thank you.
Both.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,012
  • Feb 4, 2016 4:13pm Feb 4, 2016 4:13pm
Quoting sisse
Equities easily held giving the heads up for tomorrow NFP. Dollar also held first soft test on key support while OIL barely but held at the end too. Euro with a slightly bearish daily close and we are set till tomorrow NFP.... Markets look set for a inline/better than expected numbers unlocking a decent rally in Equities for the next few weeks.... {quote} Both. sisse
Which would increase panic in case of a miss?
  • #139,013
  • Feb 4, 2016 4:38pm Feb 4, 2016 4:38pm
@sisse

its quite hard to grasp this ideology with the FA. made a mistake that i closed my longs which was taken last friday at the late lows of the market as i expected more of an range till nfp but anyway ill try to follow the reports for FA and tackle with that when i grasp it till then ill demo it.

have trouble to lay the path from the past events since i dont seem to understand it well.

ill try from past events:

  1. 3.12 ECB- deposit rate cut 10 basic points to -0,3 as i read it (dont know what it means for the market) the market was bought up quite high
  2. 16.12 FED- hike makes a stop to the euro demand as no new highs are formed
  3. 21.1 ECB- draghi comes forward with more qe in march as market had expected at the date of 3.12 but didnt get it
  4. 27.1 FED- kills it with the dowish comments and hints for no hike in march, as you mentioned at that time (good news is bad news and bad news is bad news phase kicks in which i understand now)


So basically the major events are just FOMC statements and the ECB press releases which give the larger leg or is it more the rate difference?

It would be logical to trade then at those events or a day two later

  1. so after ecb deposit cut it was a long path till fed hike
  2. market reacted acc that but next day Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was quite bad and stopped the train south
  3. but dont know on the 4.1 the pmi was worse then forecast but still the dollar went higher despite it should indicate slowing growth maybe that stopped the fall of E/U with later higher unemployment claims
  4. so at this point the hike had cooled down after the pmi. But bad pmi should push the price up that day but didnt that confuses me a bit or was it still not so drastic?
  5. the draghi comment of more QE and FED dovish is clear to understand just thought that nfp is going to clear this and not adp now at this point could be a rising wedge till mid march waiting for the FED

o man i hope it is logical to read cause im really bad at explaining i mean really bad at this..

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  • #139,014
  • Edited 11:42pm Feb 4, 2016 11:02pm | Edited 11:42pm
btw for "news traders" shouldnt forget that the actual NFP numbers will not matter as much if other data points dont do as such... meaning lets say that even if NFP numbers are 3 times better but the other data points are worse things can and will start going to get ugly


as i mentioned on my previous post when the whole thing was about to start happening and taking in account also sisse posts

Quoting KGP
... now more blood int he horizon....
  • #139,015
  • Feb 5, 2016 12:01am Feb 5, 2016 12:01am
Quoting sisse
Markets look set for a inline/better than expected numbers unlocking a decent rally in Equities for the next few weeks....
I'll buy that for a dollar.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,016
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:34am Feb 5, 2016 5:34am
U/J wants to test 118.80's/119.20's, but before that might check 116.1x first..
116.85 is a flip level to the upside, 116.58 to the downside
69
  • #139,017
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:27am Feb 5, 2016 7:27am
Here we go for NFP....Expecting inline or slightly better numbers.

---> On the fundamental side:

Not much in play. Employment in a strong trend so even a flop wont carry a game changer in the trend. However, a flop will give a lot of fuel to FED doves and guarantee no hikes March and increase expectations of FED not hiking 4 times this year.

---> On the technical side:
Inline or better for a rally in equities and dollar correcting most of the overreaction of FED rates. S&P 1910.xx --> 1950.x for while a flop will unlock a quick test 189x.x for the W roll. A break below will open the lows one more time.

On the Euro, 1.128x as max top of the range with a slightly miss so not much room for anything else until further data. To the other side losing 1.114x unlocks a quick test 1.097x to give the last rally in unch until further data ...

--> For the actual flows:

1.121x as expected is the flip for the flows. Inline or better unlock a quick test 1.114x -> 1.108x -> 1.097x. To the other side is just a soft (not tradable in my case) to 1.128x to kill the week in the highs...

Cheap tickets available for those on the mid term ride with the 'right news' ...for the rest soft positions for the news play....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,018
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:37am Feb 5, 2016 7:37am
Quoting sisse
Here we go for NFP....Expecting inline or slightly better numbers. ---> On the fundamental side: Not much in play. Employment in a strong trend so even a flop wont carry a game changer in the trend. However, a flop will give a lot of fuel to FED doves and guarantee no hikes March and increase expectations of FED not hiking 4 times this year. ---> On the technical side: Inline or better for a rally in equities and dollar correcting most of the overreaction of FED rates. S&P 1910.xx --> 1950.x for while a flop will unlock a quick test 189x.x for the...
hmmm, isnt this still more like a neutral (or even positive) report? Miss in number but average hourly earnings rose a lot, almost no revisions, unemployment down, participation rate up
  • #139,019
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:41am Feb 5, 2016 7:41am
Slight miss in both the headline and revision NFP but for the main stream NEWS headlines unemployment ticking 4.9% which not only is a great benchmark from the 2008 collapse but it also match even the revision of the revision of the revision of the FED employment target ...

Its definitively a big mismatch between real macro numbers with the jitters in Equities. Every day it pass it looks more and more like sour grapes from the bastards since the hike more than actual economic reality ....

In any case, a slightly miss in NFP but with unemployment hitting the theoretical FED target (set by themselves)...inline nothing new so expecting corrections on the last overshoot after the FED...

NY opening range will set the rest of the legs ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,020
  • Edited 7:59am Feb 5, 2016 7:42am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmmm, isnt this still more like a neutral (or even positive) report? Miss in number but average hourly earnings rose a lot, almost no revisions, unemployment down, participation rate up
I think it's a mildly positive report, particularly against the extremely negative market sentiment. Strong earnings growth and a positive number in manufacturing jobs are the key positives. Consensus earlier in week was for 190k, but this was downgraded in recent days to 160-170k.
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