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Flag trading the trend

  • #10,001
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:18am Feb 4, 2016 11:18am
long setting up to enter at 13
  • #10,002
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:20am Feb 4, 2016 11:20am
target missed by a tick
  • #10,003
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:25am Feb 4, 2016 11:25am
thanks Harold .. going through your charts now trying to compare. here's what i saw:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym04feb16.png Size: 48 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym04feb16a.png Size: 43 KB


so three +30's, three +15's & two -15's for 105 .. i only took +15(the difference between backtesting and real trading - i need to sharpen up)
Become the casino
  • #10,004
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:31am Feb 4, 2016 11:31am
Quoting Divergence
DD because ES trades in quarters and each one would be considered a tick instead of points could you relate them as ticks so a 10 point win is 40 ticks. its tough for this old mind to wrap around points when I see only ticks
Will do: My Targets are generally going to be +40 ticks or more, with a minimum target of 24 ticks. My initial stop loss should be 15 ticks, with a +/- of 3 ticks to keep it at least 4 ticks from the low/high I'm fading.
  • #10,005
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:38am Feb 4, 2016 11:38am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Will do: My Targets are generally going to be +40 ticks or more, with a minimum target of 24 ticks. My initial stop loss should be 15 ticks, with a +/- of 3 ticks to keep it at least 4 ticks from the low/high I'm fading.
Thanks DD. that trade you showed earlier I thought the 21.75 was points which would have been 87 ticks
  • #10,006
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:41am Feb 4, 2016 11:41am
Quoting erasmus66
thanks Harold .. going through your charts now trying to compare. here's what i saw: {image} {image} so three +30's, three +15's & two -15's for 105 .. i only took +15(the difference between backtesting and real trading - i need to sharpen up)
super Erasmus we had almost the same chart. the other day my modem was acting up I got it replaced so maybe charts will now be close. the problem seems to have been going on for about 1.5 weeks so maybe that's why charts looks a little different but not today
  • #10,007
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:42am Feb 4, 2016 11:42am
Erasmus do you have a 2b at 290 that just trigger a few minutes ago
  • #10,008
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:46am Feb 4, 2016 11:46am
heres chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,009
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:09pm Feb 4, 2016 12:09pm
Really great trade reporting this afternoon, everybody, triple - very helpful stuff, thanks.

Well, it must be early afternoon in NYC & I'm around, so I might just trade the last 90 minutes or so (if a hot bath hasn't tempted me) - this was what I used to do when I traded the ER2 that dd mentioned the other day. First 90 mins or so of US session, then the last 90 up to 10.15pm local. Usually too tired by later evening these days, but I've been missing my screen this week...
  • #10,010
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:27pm Feb 4, 2016 12:27pm
The one thing I noticed with the ES vs the YM is the days range and the huge difference in days range while the es trades from 100 to 200 ticks ym is 200 to 400. I am sure I am missing something since they are correlated in some way beyond my understanding BUT me personally would rather trade a larger range market. DD trades ES and when he gets his 40 ticks (10 pts) the ym probably goes 160 I think that's the correlation but non the less DD makes the money with ES and I make the money with YM bottom line is there is money to be made. Plan your trade then execute your trade plan emphasis on the execution
  • #10,011
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:43pm Feb 4, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting Divergence
The one thing I noticed with the ES vs the YM is the days range and the huge difference in days range while the es trades from 100 to 200 ticks ym is 200 to 400. I am sure I am missing something since they are correlated in some way beyond my understanding BUT me personally would rather trade a larger range market.
ES 100 ticks = $1250
YM 100 Ticks = $500

The $$ value of the ranges is very similar.

If you really want to trade something with bang for the buck, take a look at the NQ (nasdaq 100 emini).

Today's RTH YM 226 ticks = $1130
Today's RTH ES 112 ticks = $1400
Today's RTH NQ 331 ticks = $1655
  • #10,012
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:48pm Feb 4, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting ddaytrader
If you really want to trade something with bang for the buck, take a look at the NQ (nasdaq 100 emini).
Just sold the NQ pivot at 4157.50, and my target is S1 4104.25 which is 213 ticks with a $$ value of $1065

Stop loss is 15 ticks or -$75

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,013
  • Feb 4, 2016 12:56pm Feb 4, 2016 12:56pm
I know 100 tick in both is big difference money wise but if range isn't same ES never goes up 50 ts in day. What's the specs on e mini nq
  • #10,014
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:00pm Feb 4, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting Divergence
I know 100 tick in both is big difference money wise but if range isn't same ES never goes up 50 ts in day. What's the specs on e mini nq
I don't think in terms of ticks per day, I think in terms of the $$$ value of the range per day. NQ is $5/tick, or $20/point.

Here is the set up that got me short: Bear flag wedge with 3 pushes up and a failure to bull breakout at the red to green line. Red/Green = negative for the day vs positive for the day. In this chart, the gold line is yesterday's close. This is a chart of the Nasdaq 100 cash index, from which the NQ emini is derived,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NDX-X Bear Flag Wedge failure at the red to green failure.GIF Size: 85 KB
  • #10,015
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:05pm Feb 4, 2016 1:05pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Just sold the NQ pivot at 4157.50, and my target is S1 4104.25 which is 213 ticks with a $$ value of $1065 Stop loss is 15 ticks or -$75
Lowered stop loss to 4149.25. which locks in +33 ticks if hit. Still holding short for 4104.25, though 4113.50 is low of day - and I'll tighten stop if we bounce hard there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,016
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:09pm Feb 4, 2016 1:09pm
Nice setup. As part of my trade plan big ranging markets are a prerequisite the money part to me doesn't matter. My reasoning is the swiftness to hit my targets. Trades last less than 5 minutes. That's just my trade plan nothing more nothing less.
  • #10,017
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:17pm Feb 4, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting Divergence
My reasoning is the swiftness to hit my targets. Trades last less than 5 minutes. That's just my trade plan nothing more nothing less.
NQ is pretty quick when she sets her mind to moving, as is the YM. I'm less concerned with how quick the move. I have tended over the years to gravitate toward fewer trades but holding for bigger targets. What matters is that you have a price action plan you can trade comfortably and confidently. Each of us are different. Developing a consistently profitable trading plan that you can abide by is what is important.
  • #10,018
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:19pm Feb 4, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Lowered stop loss to 4149.25. which locks in +33 ticks if hit. Still holding short for 4104.25, though 4113.50 is low of day - and I'll tighten stop if we bounce hard there.
Stopped +33

NQ is definetly one where a three contract position would be best: +30 ticks +60 ticks = a runner contract, in my opinion.
  • #10,019
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:23pm Feb 4, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} NQ is pretty quick when she sets her mind to moving, as is the YM. I'm less concerned with how quick the move. I have tended over the years to gravitate toward fewer trades but holding for bigger targets. What matters is that you have a price action plan you can trade comfortably and confidently. Each of us are different. Developing a consistently profitable trading plan that you can abide by is what is important.
totally agree. in my trade plan is the risk mode which says try and reduce risk as quickly as possible that's why when I get up 7 ticks I move stop to +1. will some trades go up 7 then kick me out AT +1 AND THEN GO UP yes. BUT 80% of time it doesn't
  • #10,020
  • Feb 4, 2016 1:28pm Feb 4, 2016 1:28pm
Short 3 contracts 4144.25

Targets are now 1 @ 4133 (+45 ticks), [email protected] (+122 ticks), and [email protected] (+160 ticks).

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