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  • #138,981
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:34am Feb 3, 2016 9:34am
Quoting sisse
....and i will take that. Clearing main target on 1.099x target in Euro and we are pretty much done after the miss in ISM. Eyes on OIL to settle the deal until NFP with Euro sweeping with momentum 1.097x as widely expected since the M close... {quote} sisse
Why did you take away the 10,80 step as you had in previous posts?
  • #138,982
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:59am Feb 3, 2016 9:59am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} Hi USD-Bear, I am curious about your trades (also the trades that were clustered around 160). When interest rates fall (or forecast to fall) the market price of bonds should rise, thus lowering the bond yield. If Euro interest rates are (seemingly) biased down (and bond prices are biased up) is there a specific reason why you are shorting against this bias? Are you just catching swings? It just seems a little high-risk to me, but maybe you have more in-depth knowledge about how bunds prices fluctuate.
No, I am trying to find a final very very long term trend-turn in interest rates.
What currently is happening is unique in history. Bernard Bernanke started quantitative easing (QE) which is mainly buying treasury bonds (pressure on yields) just by printing money. Trough low yield one could argue lets spend the money as the reward of piling it up in bonds has been made unattractive by those low yields. As the main task of CB's is to maintain price-stability it was/is a dangerous strategy never employed before because it could induce inflation and price-instability.
So far that risk did not develop because the almost free money was allocated in stocks and not in consumption. Other CB's in particular Europe (formally strongly apposed against QE mainly through historic German experience of hyper-inflation) felt the risk of inducing inflation was not that great and joined the QE-strategy and applied it in the extreme. Today if you would invest in German Bonds until a duration of 7 years you have to pay for it (negative rates) and buying a 10 year Bund nowedays generates a yield of 0,3%. This is not normal, it became a synthetic instrument purchased by entities that are printing money till it becomes toilet paper. And the commercial banks purchase a fraction of it to pass on 10x the nominal deposit they make to their customers. This situation will blow up and even hyper-inflation could well be the price the world has to pay in future. The problem is, there's nothing at the horizon which triggers a turn atm, so selling bunds atm is not based on inflationary pressures atm but solely on it's ridiculous and abnormal price/yield. When it turns there will be a massacre for bond holders, it might be wiser though to wait for a fundamental change before acting,
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,983
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:29am Feb 3, 2016 10:29am
Quoting Vladimir1987
euro/dollar mostly... good data from payroll should suggest hike rate but the dollar stalls...
I have mentioned a few times here. You need to put reports in context. In general for your reference if you track back a few pages there is long explanation of the type of reports and how they impact trading flowa ,etc)
--> When you have major report that will set the short term direction for a pair (i.e FED last week) the correlated minor reports in between will give you the ebb and flow for the short term leg.
As rough reference:--> if these reports are inline or nothing new = continuation of the main direction flow (aka same levels same trades same all comments...)
--> if these minor report overshoot/undershoot in the direction of the main report == momentum legs (continuation )
--> if these minor reports overshoot/undershoot by a lot AGAINST the main report direction they create small short circuits in the flow (those sharp retraces/pullbacks that quickly get fade it)
So for your question. First you need to put the 2 reports in play in context:--> ADP was inline with expectations and trend (its a multi year super solo one in employment) and more importantly didn't contradict the FED (the main FA setting the current short term leg).....meaning soft continuation (Euro move a dozen ticks to test 1.097x till NY and manufacturing)
--> ISM and Oil (in play today too in euro via risk) ...Undershoot/(overshoot in OIL) of the minors= momentum continuation (broke the handle) to complete main move in the leg...etc
Basically my 2 cent's DON'T isolate minor reports when there are major forces in play.
That's why lots of small Tf traders get sweep very quickly in the wrong side of the flows because they quickly forget that a major force only occurred a couple of days before...I hope it helps...
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Why did you take away the 10,80 step as you had in previous posts?
Ask IMARICH....... 1.108x is Mid term swing mate not related to the short term leg we are discussing since the FED...check backposts for ref...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,984
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:33am Feb 3, 2016 10:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} No, I am trying to find a final very very long term trend-turn in interest rates. What currently is happening is unique in history. Bernard Bernanke started quantitative easing (QE) which is mainly buying treasury bonds (pressure on yields) just by printing money. Trough low yield one could argue lets spend the money as the reward of piling it up in bonds has been made unattractive by those low yields. As the main task of CB's is to maintain price-stability it was/is a dangerous strategy never employed before because it could induce inflation...

  • #138,985
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:34am Feb 3, 2016 10:34am
Thanks USD-Bear, I see your point.
I don't usually trade Bunds but you've got me interested now.
I'll keep watching.
  • #138,986
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:43am Feb 3, 2016 10:43am
Waited patiently.....Lol and finally got my boat filled!

Yes, read all the posts sisse responded to my elementary questions in trying to understand this. I mixed my "Legs" and news flows and actual flows together.

I am in SHORT now with boat stocked up but a little more if we hit .114x. I can't say that I understand the entire move in one day. OIL has found some support and Equities as well. May get another retest. GOLD is at Highs. DXY is close to its 96.XX floor. Just surprised we got here today.

My scenario was a return to .0870 and then to .108x...guess, market thought otherwise. sisse do you see this move begining our MID TERM LEG? Maybe Non-farm will trigger it SOUTH to begin this Leg to .04XX or .02XX
  • #138,987
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:58am Feb 3, 2016 10:58am
Quoting IMARICH1
Waited patiently.....Lol and finally got my boat filled! Yes, read all the posts sisse responded to my elementary questions in trying to understand this. I mixed my "Legs" and news flows and actual flows together. I am in SHORT now with boat stocked up but a little more if we hit .114x. I can't say that I understand the entire move in one day. OIL has found some support and Equities as well. May get another retest. GOLD is at Highs. DXY is close to its 96.XX floor. Just surprised we got here today. My scenario was a return to .0870 and then...
crazy times in the markets this year!! Im gonna ride this mid term leg too!!! Have been sooo much waiting BUT.... I still dont believe equities. I think they have some suprise for us - the low is so naked = therefore i bet E/U is gonna get to 1,114 short term swing extension and maybe even overshoot - perfect to "choose your poison time" (even though I would say that the "choose your poison time" for mid term leg is gonna last for a week at least) or reload more well see but Im waiting for the equities action first to get us a little bit more up - too bad that oil is holding the slide but I would be really suprised if today lows survived closing range
  • #138,988
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:06am Feb 3, 2016 11:06am
...and I happily take that...in a flawless trade clearing final target in the Euro on the test 1.114x. ...

flat as pancske and actively looking for positions for NFP .sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,989
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:08am Feb 3, 2016 11:08am
Quoting sisse
...and I happily take that...in a flawless trade clearing final target in the Euro on the test 1.114x. ... flat as pancske and actively looking for positions for NFp..sisse



that says it all right there..
  • #138,990
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:18am Feb 3, 2016 11:18am
not for nothing it is absolutely amazing watching you work... I'm always in awe by the sheer magic you seem to possess... mind blown....

Quoting sisse
...and I happily take that...in a flawless trade clearing final target in the Euro on the test 1.114x. ... flat as pancske and actively looking for positions for NFP .sisse
  • #138,991
  • Edited 12:13pm Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm | Edited 12:13pm
1086 and 1115 hit now. bears have done all needed to make a new sub 045x LL. meanwhile bulls still have 1.2470 as valid. usdx didnt hit 96.70. a smaller 1161 target wasn't reached. ypp still 1145..
summarize, i was able to close my 1.05xx longs. i have taken some small shorts. i would have taken larger ones if 1.2470 wasn't valid. also if bears take this to a LL.. contrary to trend and LL belief. a new short after it tires may be right back at today's highs in the 1.115/1.17xx (w/o a HH) area is the better trade. (it may take a while) if a LL cannot be made 1.2470 will be reached. but let's not forget dragis is weakening euro with cheap money. meanwhile back at the ranch, in the real world. euro banks are drowning in bad paper making them insolvent. so the ecb has a cure of making money easier to get. making those insolvent banks less able to make money due to low profit in low interest loans. it's a joke.. i am waiting for the movie to be released on blu ray. the explanations to follow. china is crashing, and so will the ebanks that depend on them and other e banks holding bad ez paper.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,992
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:12pm Feb 3, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
1086 and 1115 hit now. bears have done all needed to make a new sub 045x LL. meanwhile bulls still have 1.2470 as valid. usdx didnt hit 96.70. a smaller 1161 target wasn't reached. ypp still 1145.. summarize, i was able to close my 05xx longs. i have taken some small shorts. i would have taken larger ones if 1.2470 wasn't valid. also if bears take this to a LL.. contrary to trend and LL belief. a new short after it tires may be right back at today's highs in the 1.115/1.17xx (w/o a HH) area is the better trade. (it may take a while) if a LL cannot...
congrats gatorinla, nicely done and with such conviction
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,993
  • Edited 1:07pm Feb 3, 2016 12:41pm | Edited 1:07pm
sisse and gator,

I applaud your trading. I am amazed and hope some day to acquire these skills. I have been at it awhile walking aimlessly around in the forex woods just bumping into trees rather than finding a path.

Just wanted to show my respect to these Levels and Maps you both put out here way before it happens. sisse gives me some credit to .097X but that is ALL HIS LEVEL. He showed it to us here. But, thanks to you both for taking time to share and not just keeping all your knowledge to yourselves. Appreciate all the input you both give in these threads!

Now, to ask a question to sisse which will probably cause me some correction. Why would you wait and take a position for NFP instead of getting in at around YYP .114X, if you believe this to be the max ext of this short term leg move? Is it due to watching to make sure market reacts correctly? Or, because Equities and Oil still in play for Short Term Leg to extend longer as chester123 suggests? Or is it always wise to wait for a re-test of a level before entering?

Here is my hand that I played: a small position around .0927, .0995 and a bigger position around .1080 and smaller one at .1140 (due to keeping leverage in check). I just wanted to make sure I got in this MID TERM LEG developing soon;regardless, if I "FELT" strongly that your MAP was correct in reaching the max ect .1140. Perhaps, I should have waited as you did; but, I felt I missed the move last time we went below .0860 and I didn't want a repeat. TIMING is one of your points in trading. I know the big mover NFP could affect the Short term leg more if its not done; but, waiting on a better positions (CHEAP SEATS) could have kept me out of positioning at a good level for this Mid Term Leg which I believe could begin the move any time now.

As stated earlier, this move today surprised me as I didn't believe this much movement would come from last weeks' NEWS play (Fed Dovish but convincing about action and Global Risks) and this Weeks News play combined with actual flows. But, we are here and a decision was made and executed. For better or worse. Heard those words before and got Worse. But, after Worse left; it got BETTER!

My concern is if we haven't reached a bottom yet in Equities and Oil and are already at YYP Level .114X
  • #138,994
  • Edited 2:29pm Feb 3, 2016 1:22pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
1086 and 1115 hit now. bears have done all needed to make a new sub 045x LL. .
Yeap agree. Not much to add in your TA view.

Here not interested in the short term crumbs left at these levels but...

....Map is crystal clear to the short side. 1.108x is the rain maker, 1.097x is FED line, 1.080x intermediate stop, 1.061x ECB line before momentum line on the lows ....To the other side nothing to see in the current circumstances both TA and FA wise....We'll see how it pans out in the next few months...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,995
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:15pm Feb 3, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting IMARICH1
...., to ask a question to sisse which will probably cause me some correction. Why would you wait and take a position for NFP instead of getting in at around YYP .114X,
First because i don't trade pivots second let me recap a few points I have been repeating over and over the last couple of months and i hope one day they will trigger something in your trading:

  1. The money is not in the levels but when to trade them....

    1. Look there are even some traders in this same thread that 'saw and trade' the leg up on the first time we retrace 1.086x. Sure you could sit for 5 weeks waiting to pan out and with a 140 ticks drawdown no problem but that is not the way to trade properly why?


  2. Because or job as trader is minimise risk first, second and third before aiming for gains....

    1. ​So sitting for 5 weeks (or 6 hours if you are trading a M1 is irrelevant the TF) locking capital in drawdown is not really minimising risk but simple increasing it.


  3. The money is in trading the meat of the move not in aiming to trade the ultimate tick to enter and exit. Mostly newbies and scare money try to position at the ultimate extreme level

    1. which leads to my next tip that I have repeated it many times to you


  4. Try to aim for your entries to be in area where they can be overshoot because you want to trap (FADE) those late comers buying the highs / or selling the lows in the way back as they will provide the initial momentum when they get trapped ....

You have been tracking for a while these Euro flows so by now you must recognise a pattern on the way I trade and I suggest you to take some hints for your own trading plan .....final tip for today ....

  1. 'Smart' money ENTERS cautious and EXITS FAST while 'dumb' money ENTERS like a machine gun hyper fast and EXITS very late and slow

    1. Smart entries are during chop zones/compression areas when there is enough time to load size and have certainty while exits super fast in the spike up/down grabbing profits before the congestion starts and the latecomers start jumping in....
    2. Mostly suckers trade on a hunch and take the other side on a strong spike in a trend and the few times the they got it right they sit in large drawdowns or close too early (or even worse they lack a exit strategy) until the trades pan out...


Point being. Trade smart, Entry slow and safe. Minimise risk. Let the 'suckers' go over board before fading them and then sit tight to ride the pig if you got the direction right ....

So answering you question Why would not take a blind trade, etc ??? ...just read the points above and you tell me ....

I hope it helps.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,996
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:42pm Feb 3, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}.... First because i don't trade pivots second let me recap a few points I have been repeating over and over the last couple of months and i these Euro flows so by now you must recognise a pattern on the way I trade and I suggest you to take some hints for your own trading plan .....final tip for today .... 'Smart' money ENTERS cautious and EXITS FAST while 'dumb' money ENTERS like a machine gun hyper fast and EXITS very late and slow Smart entries are during chop zones/compression areas when there is enough time to load size...
finally someone said it ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #138,997
  • Feb 4, 2016 2:38am Feb 4, 2016 2:38am
Quoting USD-Bear
this stuff is highly unpredictable unless your name is sisse, trying again @ 164.15 stop already at BE BUND H4: {image}
so far so good, don't think this is the start of a major turn yet, looks like it's mainly driven by absolute validation extremes and Oil.
A production cut could be a trigger here besides that we need a turn in fundamentals like growth and inflation

BUND M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0118.png Size: 60 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,998
  • Feb 4, 2016 4:03am Feb 4, 2016 4:03am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap agree. Not much to add in your TA view. Here not interested in the short term crumbs left at these levels but... ....Map is crystal clear to the short side. 1.108x is the rain maker, 1.097x is FED line, 1.080x intermediate stop, 1.061x ECB line before momentum line on the lows ....To the other side nothing to see in the current circumstances both TA and FA wise....We'll see how it pans out in the next few months... sisse
1) When you mention 1.097 is the top point during last dovish slighty FED. In terms of swing trading, that does it mean that is a point where the market will be hanging around before next FED?

Thanks in advance
  • #138,999
  • Feb 4, 2016 5:20am Feb 4, 2016 5:20am
DAX approaching 921x lvl! Its suprising that US equities show much better resilience than the EU equities in short term even though the monetary conditions say the opposite. WeŽll see what NY brings
  • #139,000
  • Feb 4, 2016 5:22am Feb 4, 2016 5:22am
All eyes on DOLLAR. DXY testing 96.5x with plenty of action across the currency board with Dollar in full control as expected since the FED.....

Quoting sisse
....

  1. A dovish FED unlocks DXY 96.5x [check] in a rather quick move while ....More importantly it will trigger decoupling (break correlation short term) from Dollar with Equities [check]...

Quoting sisse
But more importantly ...

--> Changing short term outlook in the DOLLAR from Neutral to soft sell all still on imminent break up for the mid term leg...
For strictly TA reasons until NFP very important update:

--> Changing short term outlook in DOLLAR from Soft SELL to NEUTRAL....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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