Dukascopy Market and Economic Research

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on EUR.
Full research available here​.



After a plunge amid more favorable data from the US and anticipation of further action by the European Central Bank on January 22 and some wobbly movements on the following Friday, the EUR Index rushed through the new week on an uptrend, ultimately becoming one of the best performer of the period. The single currency posted modest weekly loses against the pound, the Canadian dollar and the krona, whose indexes held in the appreciation area throughout the whole period, but managed outperform notably the Pacific currencies and the Swiss franc.



In spite of the fact that the period was rich with influential economic events, the market volatility during the period was mostly below the historical level and slightly exceeded it only in 15% of time. However, on Thursday, at the end of the observed period the Euro’s volatility skyrocketed significantly almost above the historical level. Such a strong reaction started after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged between 0.25% and 0.50%, following the first rate hike from the record low in a decade.



The period was marked by an increase in the average values of all observed correlation pairs. The most noticeable strengthening was observed in the bonds between EUR/USD and the EUR/JPY as well as EUR/CHF. Changes of the average EUR/USD correlations with EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD, in turn, were minimal, even though the dynamics of the component was rather animate. It held at the level of 0.35, but during the weekend and at the Wednesday’s evening, sharp falls of the component were noted , bringing it as low as 0.20 and notably skewing the average.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on USD.
Full research available here​.



The past week was full of ups and downs, but the market managed to retain its previous leaders and losers. Thus for the second week in a row the Canadian dollar became the best performer of the period, whereas the yen ended the week with a strong decrease. The BoJ’s decision to introduce a negative interest rate surprised the market, and the yen fell sharply, losing 2.4%. The commodity currencies started the period with a downward trend, but the recovering of the oil prices on Tuesday became the turning point for the Loonie and the Aussie – their indexes changed direction and finished the observed week with 1.4% and 1.0% gains, respectively.



The past week was the first one this year during which the market’s elevated volatility portion did not exceed the 50% mark, moreover, it could hardly pass the 20% level. It means that the market calmed down and there were very few events to notably affect the observed currencies. The pound and the yen became the absolute leaders in terms of turbulence, as the former posted 43% portion of elevated volatility, but the volatility measure of the latter reached the 6.0 points mark against the background of BoJ decision to put the benchmark interest rate below zero. Undoubtedly, it became the most resonant event of the trading week as both the USD and DC volatility indexes reached their 2.3 points highs, but the USD/JPY component surged above the 10.0 level.



The dollars correlation composite held firmly below the significance threshold for the fourth week in a row. The measure remained heavily influenced by the commodity currencies, whose pairs’ continued to inject negativity into the associated components. Thus, the USD/EUR correlation with USD/AUD, USD/CAD, and USD/NZD edged further down, bringing their averages closer to significant levels and signaling a well-defined opposing behavior. Meanwhile, the pair’s bonds with USD/SEK and USD/CHF lost around 0.1 points, also contributing to the composite’s weakness.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on JPY.
Full research available here​.



Without a doubt the Japanese Yen was the worst performing currency of the period ended February 2. The Bank of Japans interest rate decision was quite unexpected for many market participants, while nobody had anticipated anything even similar to negative rates. BOJ Governor Kuroda had assured markets in Davos that the move was unlikely, but policymakers voted 5-4 in favour of cutting the rate from +0.10% to 0.10%. Bank of Japan is intended to combat declining inflation expectations and sluggish economic growth in the country. Following the decision, the Yen has immediately slumped 2%.



Volatility readings for the Yen are clearly reflecting everything that took place in the worlds third largest economy on Friday of the previous week. The Bank of Japan lowered the deposit rate, meaning now the commercial banks have to pay the central bank for parking cash there. The decision was followed by the Yens turbulence indicator spiking as high as 6.11 points, the levels we have not observed for quite some time in recent past. On the other hand, the reaction used to be short-lived, as market focus moved on to the ECB and even Fed, which is now not considered to hike rates in March. On top of that, Japan released no important fundamentals throughout other days of the period.



Different currency pairs of the observed Japanese currency correlated pretty well in course of the whole time period ended Tuesday of the first week of February. This fact is confirmed by the mean correlation coefficient, which used to hold at 0.60 points, down slightly from 0.63 points on the basis of the previous four working weeks. However, last periods gauge has substantially overshot the 6-month and yearly averages of 0.45-0.41 points. All crosses posted higher correlations with EUR/JPY than it was usually in the past. With Euro and Swiss Franc being quite interconnected to each other, it resulted in the mean correlation coefficient of 0.81 for EUR/JPY & EUR/CHF last week, the best reading of the period compared to other JPY components.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on EUR.
Full research available here​.



The period, which put most of the observed indexes either on or above the baseline, resulted in a 0.6% gain for the EUR Index, making it the week’s second best performer. The only peer to advance above the Euro’s measure was the New Zealand dollar gauge, which was spurred by the unemployment figures which managed to came in much better than expected, rebound in oil prices and also, due to the central bank attempts to delay expectations of the further easing. On the other side of the baseline, the Greenback became the main looser and posted a 2.04% weekly plunge, greatly affected by the weak data on factory orders for December which dropped the most in a year.



In a terms of the elevated volatility, the market and the Euro were much more volatile compared to the previous week tendency. Thus, the portions of elevated volatility of the aggregate and EUR were 32% and 27%, respectively. For the most of the components the observed period was quite turbulent. The major gainers were EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and EUR/SEK. The highest peaks of the market and EUR volatility indexes even managed to reach 2 points. Among the components, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF and EUR/SEK managed to overcome the 2-point level. Meanwhile, the most outstanding jump was demonstrated by EUR/JPY, which skyrocketed above the 11-point level.



The period was marked by an increase in the average values of all observed correlation pairs. The less noticeable strengthening was observed in the bonds between EUR/USD and the Asia-Pacific currencies. Changes of the average EUR/USD correlations with EUR/JPY were minimal, even though the dynamics of the component was rather animate. It held at the level of 0.51, as the Yen was on the back foot after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly decided to cut its benchmark rate into the negative territory.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on USD.
Full research available here​.



The observed currency indexes posted another wide range of weekly changes, with some of the measures turning tables on their previous results. The most notable change of mind was showed by the yen’s gauge, which was pushed 2.5% below the baseline by the BoJ decision to introduce a negative interest rate on January 29. Then the index became the period’s worst performer, but in the past week it managed to pare some of the losses, posting a 2% growth over the base value. Similarly, the previous week’s second worst, the CHF Index, became the second best. The Euro’s gauge, in turn, remained on the third position. Meanwhile, the previous winners, the Loonie’s and the Aussie’s measures, lost the momentum and fell into the bottom-3.



Against the background of the rather turbulent second half of January, the Volatility Indexes showed quite weak activity in the past period. In terms of elevated volatility, the British pound became the most changeable currency among its peers, spending about 31% of the time above the historical level. The most tranquil, in turn, was the yen with only 11% of elevated volatility. Thus the portion of elevated volatility of the market was 20%. The Greenback held above the 1-point line for a quarter of the period and had the second highest volatility peak, losing only to Loonie, which managed to surge to 2.38 mark.



The first week of February brought some improvement to correlations of the USD pairs. The average of the Greenback’s composite gained 0.2 points and came closer to the long-term value. However, it did not mean that the picture changed significantly, as the commodity currencies coupled with the yen continued to hold on leading positions. The US dollar’s composite with its European counterparts stayed behind while the pound was the only one which could compete with the pacific peers. The currency strongly reacted to the manufacturing PMI and the interest rate releases, which made its significance measure hold around the 0.5 level.

January Release of Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index Report

Full report available here.

Summary

1. The global economy entered into 2016 on a wobbly footing, with China sending jitters around the world. China’s economy in 2015 grew 6.9%, the slowest pace in 25 years. The world's second biggest economy saw a difficult start to the current year, which included financial markets closure on two occasions as steep declines of more than 7% triggered market circuit breakers and a halt to trading. These developments had a devastating impact on business and consumer sentiment in January.
2. It came as no surprise that the Asia-Pacific region experienced massive declines in both short and long term sentiment indexes, with the three-year gauge plummeting to the lowest level since records began in November 2011. Given the weight the Chinese economy has on the global economic arena, future development in the world’s second biggest economy will continue to determine central banks’ monetary policy decisions, and effect market participants’ risk appetite, business and consumer confidence.
3. Europe, in contrast, was a bright spot in Dukascopy Bank January report, as both readings climbed in the measured month.
4. North America saw mixed results in January, as the six-month sentiment index inched down slightly, while the three-year measure rebounded.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on GBP.
Full research available here​.



The Pounds fate was determined by the events surrounding the Bank of England on Thursday of the previous week. By turning increasingly dovish on interest rates, the BOE sent the national currency deeper into red and on Thursday-Friday it was the second-worst performing component across the board, just behind the US Dollar. Concerns over the Fed rate increases, namely the possibility of no hikes throughout 2016, pushed the Greenback down by 2.17% over the whole period, the most negative result among G9 currencies. Australian Dollar got the second place from the end, by losing 1.73% in five days through Tuesday.



Markets were increasingly turbulent over the whole five-day period, and there were separate reasons for literally every single day. The periods first part was especially busy with many statistical data releases from G8 countries. Economists were waiting for US employment and wage numbers to conclude the previous calendar week, in order to access the level of pressure on the countrys labour market from global instability that has been in place since the first weeks of 2016. However, volatile time slots were equally being changed by a more tranquil development. Therefore, elevated volatility indicator has only reached 36% for the Sterling and 35% for the whole market.



Significance of the British currency for the previous trading week has broadly come in line with longer-term average readings. Average correlations held at 0.42 points, the same as a 20-day mean and slightly above 0.37 points posted by half-year and annual time frames. Traditionally, some correlations were weaker than others from time to time. However, they were helped by a number of components with absolutely green correlations. A good example is the interconnection between GBP/EUR and GBP/JPY (0.82 points), which truly mirrored everything that took place on the markets in the past 30 calendar days.

Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 11 February, 2016

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11:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
12:30 - Current Week in Focus
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14:00 - Introduction to Visual JForex in Russian
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Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 12 February, 2016

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09:00 - Trading at the Right Levels
10:00 - Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
11:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
12:00 - DUKASCOPY RESEARCH WEBINAR
13:00 - Algo war, tech talk and everything you wanted to know about the market but were afraid to ask
13:20 - USA - RETAIL SALES DATA RELEASE
14:00 - Analysis of 21 Currency Pairs
15:00 - Introduction to Visual JForex in Russian

Today the schedule looks very promising, because we are going to have our 12:00 GMT Research Webinar, where we will discuss the latest Market Research on the European Shared Currency, give you some Trade Pattern Ideas as well as bring you our regular Fun Quiz because it is Friday! Moreover, at 13:20 GMT the Research Team will be back on the Telefision to discuss the US Retail Sales economic data release live on air, so make sure you tune in and stay with us for this interesting discussion!

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Highlights of the latest Market Research release on EUR.
Full research available here​.



For the majority of the observed indexes, the movement directions for the entire period was set on its very first day. As the market was heavily influenced by the falling oil prices, the commodity currencies’ gauges mostly followed a downtrend pattern, while the yen continued its rapid appreciation that started in the first days of February, after the currency was hit by the surprising BoJ interest rate decision. As a result, the yen added 4% in value during the period and gained 2% over its nearest counterpart – the franc, another safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, the Euro took the third gainer’s position with a 0.7% appreciation of its index. The rest of the observed currencies finished the period below the baseline.



The periods of elevated volatility broadened compared to the previous readings, mostly due to a more even distribution of activity across trading days. The market and the Euro both added 10% to their overturbulence portions, while most of the hustle came from the yen, which was climbing up throughout the week, but suffered some ups and downs in Tuesday and Wednesday Asian sessions, putting its measure at 54.1%. The JPY Volatility Index was also the one to reach the period’s second highest peak, jumping to 3.2 as the yen zigzagged with the wave of demand for the safe-haven currencies on Thursday. The period’s high, in turn, was posted by the krona’s gauge, which spiked to 4.8 with the Riksbank’s decision to put rates deeper into the negative territory.



The past week was marked by the weakening of the single currency’s significance. The average value of the EUR significance measure has lost 0.07 points comparing with previous three periods. The EUR/USD components also showed the weakening of bonds and lost from 0.02 to 0.16 points. The only EUR/USD components to not lose any points were the ones with EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD. Comparing with the long-term values, the average values of the composite and almost all EUR/USD components also suffered a 0.03-0.18 points decline.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release on USD.
Full research available here​.



For the second week in a row the yen confidently maintained the leading position, ending the period well ahead of its peers. The yens strengthening started at the very beginning of February as a recovery from a plunge following the BoJ unexpected interest rate cut. This time the JPY Index was further supported by an upsurge of interest towards safe-haven currency, and posted a solid 2.6% increase. The franc and the Euro followed their safe-haven peer, but at a much more moderate pace and finished the period notably closer to the baseline. For other observed currencies the period was not successful, and they ended the week at the negative area.



After two relatively tranquil weeks, when the volatility indexes peeked above the reference line on only three out of five trading days, activity on the market picked up. Though occurring mostly in late afternoon and thus still deviating from the usual pattern of increased turbulence all throughout the European and North American sessions, higher-than-historical volatility values made up around 50% of observations for the major currencies, peaking at 63% for the yen. The most tranquil currencies were the Loonie and the Kiwi, both posting the readings of 37%, which were still more than 15% higher than previous. Maxima-wise, the most notable result was shown by the Swedish krona, whose turbulence measure jumped to 4.9 with the Riksbanks decision to put rates deeper into the negative territory.



The average of the dollar's correlation composite was unchanged from the previous weeks somewhat recovered readings, but the bonds between the pairs containing the safe-haven and the commodity currencies turned back to posting strongly negative values. Correlation between USD/EUR and USD/CHF, on the other hand, notably strengthened, adding 0.09 points to the average and pushing the distribution tightly to the upper limit. All in all, after spiking on Friday, February 5, the dollar's composite spent the first part of the week among its averagely performing counterparts, but, as the pull of the turmoil between the safe-haven and the commodity currencies bought it back below the significance level, it returned to being the weakest of the observed gauges.

Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 16 February, 2016

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Today's agenda:
08:30 - Catching Every Pip
09:00 - January Trader Contest 1st place winner presents his strategy
09:20 - UK - CPI Data Release
10:00 - Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
11:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
12:30 - Current Week in Focus
13:00 - Algo war, tech talk and everything you wanted to know about the market but were afraid to ask
14:00 - Trade Opportunities and Sub-abcds
16:00 - 1 Pip Box Renko Price Action Scalping + 70 Tick EUR/USD + 4h Majors and Crosses Overview

Today the schedule looks very decent, because at 09:20 GMT the Research Team will be on the Telefision to discuss the UK CPI economic data release live on air, so make sure you tune in and stay with us for this interesting discussion! Moreover, right before the Team breaks the ice, January Trader Contest winner is going to talk about his winning strategy.
Another piece of very pleasant news is that today is going to be marked with a return of one of our regular broadcasters that we have not seen for a while, so that is going to be interesting indeed!

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Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 17 February, 2016

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08:30 - Catching Every Pip
09:20 - UK - Claimant Count Change Data Release
10:00 - Trading at the Right Levels
11:00 - Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
12:00 - Dukascopy Research Webinar
13:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
14:00 - Jignesh and Doc tech talk and everything you wanted to know about the market
15:00 - Trade Opportunities
16:00 - 1 Pip Box Renko Price Action Scalping + 70 Tick EUR/USD + 4h Majors and Crosses Overview


Today the schedule looks very decent, because at 09:20 GMT the Research Team will be on the Telefision to discuss the UK Claimant Count Change economic data release live on air, so make sure you tune in and stay with us for this interesting discussion! Moreover, we are going to have our regular 12:00 GMT Research Webinar, where we will discuss the latest Market Research, give you some Trade Pattern Ideas as well as discuss the latest release of our weekly Community Forecasts and cover the interview on Russian Economy from Capital Economics.

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Highlights of the latest Market Research release on JPY.
Full research available here​.



Last time when we discussed the Japanese currency, it used to be the worst performer across the board amid a decision of the Bank of Japan to introduce a negative interest rate. However, the Yens bearish reaction was very short-lived and it resumed rallying in a few days post-decision. This is all about the safe haven status of this currency, which is attractive in times of increased instability in global equity and commodity markets. The vast part of indexes, even including the Euro and Swiss Franc, traded in the negative zone during last period ended February 16, while the researched currency earned the first place.



Japanese events were not those that dominated in the economic calendar during the researched time period. However, volatility of the Yen was still higher than two weeks ago when the Bank of Japan made its rate decision. JPY remained volatile for 44% of all time in the past five trading days, while the markets elevated volatility touched only the 35% mark. The only cross to trade in a turbulent manner more than 50% of all time was SEK/JPY. On Thursday the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank, curbed the Repo rate to 0.50% from the previous level of 0.35%, thus creating a great deal of turbulence for the whole market.



Although weakening by the end of the period, significance of the Yen was high overall, helped by especially confident gains on Wednesday-Friday. Looking at violins, only the JPY/EURs component with the JPY/USD pair, the most liquid one, was shortly moving into the red territory, even though general picture still looked quite positive. The mean correlation coefficient skyrocketed to 0.73 points, therefore surpassing all previous periodical averages. At the moment the 20-day mean is 0.65 points and it drops to only 0.42 on a yearly basis.

Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 18 February, 2016

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09:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
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12:00 - First place in January Strategy Contest
12:30 - Current Week in Focus
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Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 19 February, 2016

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Today's agenda:
08:30 - Catching Every Pip
09:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
10:00 - Trading at the Right Levels
11:00 - Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
12:00 - Dukascopy Research Webinar
13:00 - Tech talk. Algo`s and Everything you wanted to know about trading but was afraid to ask
13:20 - US - CPI Data Release
14:00 - Review currencies for next week
15:00 - 1 Pip Box Renko Price Action Scalping + 70 Tick EUR/USD + 4h Majors and Crosses Overview

NB! Today we are going to have our regular 12:00 GMT Research Webinar, where we will discuss the latest Market Research, give you some Trade Pattern Ideas as well as make your brain work in a funny atmosphere with our regular Fun Friday Quiz! Moreover, at 13:20 GMT the Research Team will be on the Telefision to discuss the US CPI economic data release live on air, so make sure you tune in and stay with us for this interesting discussion!

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Highlights of the latest Market Research release on EUR.
Full research available here​.



The EUR Index lost the momentum it accumulated during the last days of the previous period, making its movement less directed and thus less successful. Among more determined indexes, the Lonnie's and Aussie’s measure retained the uptrend it took up on February 12 and strengthened due to rising oil prices on the back of the Doha commitment, being commodity currencies. However, Australia's labor market took a turn for the worse in January as a large number of full-time jobs were lost and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level n five months.



During the period, the market volatility was below the average historical level. While the Euro volatility index’s values were very close to those of the market, the pound became the most turbulent currency. Its index spent 29% of time in the area of elevated volatility and reached the 1.42 mark on Tuesday evening, following the release of disappointing CPI data from the UK and continued market uncertainty. Despite accelerating at its fastest pace since January 2015, the poor form of UK inflation continued as the latest UK CPI showed minimal 0.3% growth year-on-year, far below the 2% inflation target set by the Bank of England.



The Euro’s significance measure held at its usual level throughout the past period. Thus compared with the short-term values, averages of the aggregate and its components changed for 0.01-0.47 points. Most of the components started the period at a rather high level, but declined in the middle of the week. The drop was most notable in the components containing EUR/JPY, especially in correlations with EUR/CHF and EUR/SEK, which fell into the negative area on Thursday. Most correlation distributions, in turn, shortened their lower tails and concentrated around the averages.

Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 22 February, 2016

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08:30 - Catching Every Pip
10:00 - Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
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Highlights of the latest Market Research release on USD.
Full research available here​.



The past week was full of ups and downs, with the observed indexes switching positions throughout the whole period. The yen’s gauge posted the greatest weekly growth for the third time in a row, though its ascent was notably less firm, and it spent the first day and a half below the baseline, hit by the preliminary Japanese GDP showing a greater-than-expected decline in Q4. The yen’s main competitors were the Loonie’s and Aussie’s measures, both of which surged with the oil prices on Wednesday and finished the week with a 0.8% gain. The period’s biggest loss, in turn, was posted by the pound’s index. The measure finished the week with an uptick, supported by the news of an agreement reached by the UK Prime Minister and the EU leaders at the summit in Brussels, and outpacing its closest peers—the Euro’s and the franc’s gauges. However, all gains were erased as the new week opened after London Mayor expressed his support for “Brexit”, and the GBP Index lost 1.1 points from the Friday’s value.



The past trading week was relatively calm for the Greenback and its counterparts. The pound became the most turbulent currency in terms of elevated volatility portion as it notably reacted to domestic news such as CPI and unemployment releases. However, the portion reached only 20%, while the market volatility exceeded its historical level only in 7% of time. The safe-haven yen, in turn, turned out to be the most tranquil against the background of turbulent first half of February and the USD/JPY volatility index posted 3% of overturbulence instead of 63% previous week.



For the third week in a row the Greenback’s significance measure held roughly at the same level. Comparing with the previous period average of the composite lost only 0.03 points. Growth of the commodity currencies’ rates was reflected in rise of average values of correlations with USD/AUD and USD/CAD. In contrast, the bond between USD/EUR and USD/GBP weakened and the component lost 0.13 points.

Dukascopy Community TV Webinars as of 23 February, 2016

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Today's agenda:
07:00 - Market Analysis Live in 3 Different Time Frames
08:30 - Catching Every Pip
09:30 - Current Week in Focus
10:00 - Visual JForex: Building, testing and using a strategy in Chinese
11:00 - Introduction to Visual JForex in English
12:00 - Reviewing the impact of news and events on the FX market and Daily Technical Levels
13:00 - Algo war, tech talk and everything you wanted to know about the market but were afraid to ask
14:00 - Timeframe Relationships
15:00 - 1 Pip Box Renko Price Action Scalping + 70 Tick EUR/USD + 4h Majors and Crosses Overview

Today we are going to have two webinars held by our colleagues from Research and Monitoring Team testing various Visual JForex strategies, so make sure you tune in and stay with us for this interesting discussion!

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