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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #138,421
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:46am Feb 2, 2016 2:46am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Grous How are you my friend. Truthfully I have no idea is really the response to those questions lol. What I mean is in my regular trading month to month I might take 1 trade I might take 30 trades. Depends on the market. I might take all those trades on daily, or all those trades on hourly etc. I don't search for trades just whatever shows it's head as being solid. The tricky thing for sure is that I can't send all my trades because some just don't have enough time to get out and give people enough time to have a chance to follow. Of...
Thanks Mike and I've always been very impressed with your (and others on here) response times and transparency. As per my CAD JPY trade I posted on here I am trying to contribute a bit more now as this thread helped me immensely go from a BE trader to a profitable one. All the best for now.
Cheers,
GM
  • #138,422
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:54am Feb 2, 2016 2:54am
Quoting trader1212
Hi everybody! What do you think, is this good spot to get long? The pair is GBPCAD in daily. E: The first FTA is just under the blue zone. {image}
Hi 1212. To me this looks like a risky trade because price is right at a PPZ. It could burst through and do another price flip and be all wonderful for you OR it could bounce downward? I also can't see what price action you have used for confluence - for instance there's no standout bar? I think you need to explain a little more as to why you took the trade
Having said that there are better traders than me here to comment.
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  • #138,423
  • Feb 2, 2016 4:24am Feb 2, 2016 4:24am
Hi 1212, are you trading it as a break of the inside bar? It's usually best to trade the extremes of the box price is in or off the mid PPZ, price is kind of in no mans land, but the 4 hr chart may be helpful here.

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Daily chart

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  • #138,424
  • Edited 5:31am Feb 2, 2016 5:16am | Edited 5:31am
Hello everyone,

I have just joined here and wanted to say hi. I've been trading unsuccessfully for a few years now so I have a good understanding of how the process of trading works. However I'm at the stage like a lot of people that have gone before me where I have reached the realisation that I need help in making this a sustainable form of income.

I am also considering joining the James16group but I have a few questions about how the training process works with them (you). Jim, Mike, Kevin would it be possible to have a one on one chat about this via Skype my username is Daveydudeuk.

Thanks.
  • #138,425
  • Feb 2, 2016 6:34am Feb 2, 2016 6:34am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Morning Bill. Congrats on the month. I am in short on that E/C PB but will be watching closely. It is counter trend, and price still has plenty of space to move up into. Last monthly low is 1.1305. However price is at a BRN with D1 PB bearish close below 1.11000 and I am comfortable with my risk. Maybe a small position size with a view to adding to it later might be a consideration? Price in uptrend so tricky. {image}
I'm in too with practically the same entrance))).....
  • #138,426
  • Feb 2, 2016 7:03am Feb 2, 2016 7:03am
Hi all, Does this looks like a re-trace pin
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  • #138,427
  • Feb 2, 2016 7:27am Feb 2, 2016 7:27am
Hello guys and gals
I wanted to share my findings with you all.
I've manually backtested all the instruments I'm currently interested in trading. In total that's 62 instruments. Mostly forex and futures contracts, a few stockindexes but no individual stocks.
I've managed to find 242 entries. To eliminate as much as the hindsight-effect I've done it all with the F12 key in metatrader, which means that I only see one new bar at a time, which should lower the amounts of patterns I'd trade since I didn't see them working out before I've decided.
The subjective element of trading this way is very large, and using the method described above I really test MY WAY of looking at pinbars with my specific rules.

I've had very simple rules to trade, the only subjective element of my trading is whether the pinbar is valid or not, the actual management is very mechanical.
Entry at H/L with SL at L/H. TP is 2 RvR and breakeven after 1 RvR.
I remove the pending order if it hadn't been filled the next timeframe (daily or weekly, depending on where the pinbar emerged).
That's it, in order to test this properly I needed strict rules that never change and this is something I'm comfortable trading with live aswell. (Suits me personally)

Out of the 242 pinbars I found, 147 were winners, 65 were taken out at breakeven and lastly, 30 were losers.
That turns out to be a win percentage of 60,7%
A losing percentage of 12,4%
And a breakeven percentage of 26,9%

On average it would present 5,2 pinbars per month for me to trade, which is plenty. Notice that this is from more than 60 instruments.

I also noted whether my breakevens would eventually turn out to be winners more often than losers and from my 65 breakevens I found that 25 would continue and turn out to be winners. 40 would be losses. From a strict winning% perspective it's better to include a breakeven. But since each loss is -1R and each winner is +2R I would actually, according to my findings, make more money not using BE. It is however a very nice thing to utilize when trading longterm. Combined with the rather small sample size I've decided to keep my breakeven when trading live. This could be the goal of my next backtest-project to find out if it's really worth it (need a lot more data for that...).

I'm very comfortable trading this with live money and I really recommend you backtesting your strategy exactly how you want to trade it. If it turns out to be profitable and you kept the backtesting-process totally subjective it should work out the way you planned.

This project has taken me several weeks to backtest, let me know if you have any questions.
  • #138,428
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:25am Feb 2, 2016 8:25am
He guys,

I just went long on this pre-emptive H4 BUOB on USD/CAD:

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The other trade on the chart is from the monthly wick, SL > BE.

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I'm not quite experienced in trading pre-emptive break-outs, so criticism is quite welcome here.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,429
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:26am Feb 2, 2016 8:26am
UsdCad 4hr

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  • #138,430
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:44pm Feb 2, 2016 12:44pm
Thx Bill618 and alphac for your analyses..! When I watched closely I noticed that we are going towards mid point of box but I still got triggered my order buy stop.
I put my FTA just under midpoint of that box.

GBPCAD Daily:
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Im gonna beat this game.
  • #138,431
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:59pm Feb 2, 2016 12:59pm
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  • #138,432
  • Edited 3:08pm Feb 2, 2016 2:06pm | Edited 3:08pm
Quoting demp
Hello guys and gals I wanted to share my findings with you all. I've manually backtested all the instruments I'm currently interested in trading. In total that's 62 instruments. Mostly forex and futures contracts, a few stockindexes but no individual stocks. I've managed to find 242 entries. To eliminate as much as the hindsight-effect I've done it all with the F12 key in metatrader, which means that I only see one new bar at a time, which should lower the amounts of patterns I'd trade since I didn't see them working out before I've decided. The...
Hi Demp. This is great and thank you for sharing, you have inspired me to do much more backtesting!
If i have read this correctly, you only traded 5.2 pinbars per month in total across all 60 instruments - so that means you backtested 4 years of data, yes?.... and with your strict R:R setup, how many pips do you risk:want for your reward?.... and last question, where is your entry of the PB - the break or a 25% retrace or top of preceding bar or something else?
Bill
  • #138,433
  • Edited 9:46pm Feb 2, 2016 5:50pm | Edited 9:46pm
Trade Idea.

Update: Price had little retrace before moving down. It could still end up a good trade but for now i have removed my sell limit order. On the watchlist!
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  • #138,434
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:46pm Feb 2, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting Bill618
Trade Idea. Update: Price had little retrace before moving down. It could still end up a good trade but for now i have removed my sell limit order. On the watchlist! {image}
Hey Bill,

Good Trade and have enough confluences to pick ..
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Enter @ low of yesterday bar

Adhav
  • #138,435
  • Feb 2, 2016 11:28pm Feb 2, 2016 11:28pm
Quoting Adhavan
{quote} Enter @ low of yesterday bar Adhav
Ad, that would have been lovely
  • #138,436
  • Edited 4:23am Feb 3, 2016 12:45am | Edited 4:23am
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Hi Demp. This is great and thank you for sharing, you have inspired me to do much more backtesting! If i have read this correctly, you only traded 5.2 pinbars per month in total across all 60 instruments - so that means you backtested 4 years of data, yes?.... and with your strict R:R setup, how many pips do you risk:want for your reward?.... and last question, where is your entry of the PB - the break or a 25% retrace or top of preceding bar or something else?
Bill
Hi Bill
Yes it's very rewarding!

I had more data for some pairs and less on others, but on average, yes. Just wanted a rough estimation on how often I'm likely to trade.

My TP is double my risk no matter what. So if I have to use a SL of 150 since that's the length of the pinbar; I'm using a TP of 300 pips.
If you mouseover a bar on your chart you see your OHLC-value in the bottom right, if it's a bullish pattern I simple put my buy stop at "H", SL at "L" and TP double the distance from entry to SL.

I realise this may not be the best way of trading pinbars but I'm more interested in easy and something that works practically for me. And I'm more than satisfied with the results. So imma stick with it!
  • #138,437
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:41am Feb 3, 2016 2:41am
Trade idea:

What do you think about SP500 in weekly TF. A bullish pinbar nicely rejecting from support level, possible long entry at high of pinbar + 10 pips..? SL just under left and right eye.
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Im gonna beat this game.
  • #138,438
  • Feb 3, 2016 7:23am Feb 3, 2016 7:23am
@ Demp
Thanks man that is really pretty inspiring, i will take my time too and make manuall backtests. Also thx for sharing your trading strategy! Sounds quite simple but effective. I love Posts like this. Best for your trading. Maybe you can post one or two of the trades you take with screenshots. Would be awesome.
  • #138,439
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:09am Feb 3, 2016 9:09am
Quoting zero966
@ Demp Thanks man that is really pretty inspiring, i will take my time too and make manuall backtests. Also thx for sharing your trading strategy! Sounds quite simple but effective. I love Posts like this. Best for your trading. Maybe you can post one or two of the trades you take with screenshots. Would be awesome.
Thank you Zero.

The thing, though, is that my entries aren't very special. Especially when looking at the more complicated entries people post here all the time. I simple look for "eye-popping" pinbars, as I like to call them. And make sure they're at a good levels with confluence from other technical factors, as S/R, BRN 200SMA etc.

Here's an example of a cable trade I'm currently in:
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I find on average 1 setup per week and that's okay. Since the ones I do take have very high probability of working out favorable.
  • #138,440
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:23am Feb 3, 2016 10:23am
Hi all! Here my trades from the start of the week. I am in profit but I could make much more if I exit my positions better. What would you say about my trades?
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