Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 349 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,961
  • Feb 2, 2016 3:07am Feb 2, 2016 3:07am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That D1 demand zone on EURUSD is confirmed, it broke previous daily bearish trendline. Cheers, Alfonso
Alfonso,

I assume the 1.0332 for D1 DZ was a typo and the 1.0632 is what you meant to put on chart and text of your message. I don't see anything at 1.0332 back in December 2002. I agree that it is a DZ but has been hit pretty hard a few times.

I see the 1.05 round number can get maybe a good rally or two or three, back to daily supply but I don't think it survives for too long as a demand zone, especially with untested demand at par.

Enjoying your updates.
Trading is simply about managing the area between your ears
  • #6,962
  • Feb 2, 2016 6:53am Feb 2, 2016 6:53am
Quoting sympathy
NGAS MN/W1 is clearly down, Price has been dropping from a weekly supply level afetr re-aligning with the monthly downtrend D1 creacted a cp supply level and triggered, Shorts is the way. {image} {image}
Hello Sympathy.
Thank you for sharing your NGAS analysis.

I would like to show you what I had and ask for your comments please.

Many thanks and best wishes
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,963
  • Edited 8:21am Feb 2, 2016 7:37am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Sympathy. Thank you for sharing your NGAS analysis. I would like to show you what I had and ask for your comments please. Many thanks and best wishes {image} {image} {image}

I think Monthly is clearly down
  • #6,964
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:31am Feb 2, 2016 8:31am
Quoting Cepbra
{quote} I think Monthly is clearly down
+1
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Trade what you see..
  • #6,965
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:25am Feb 2, 2016 9:25am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} +1 {image}
Hello Chawl.
Thank you for your input.
Makes it interesting.

I was looking at the Trend line rule about joining peaks though, not so much lower lows.
That rule about trend lines should have us joining peaks once a lower low is made.
So if you were to join the peaks you kindly highlighted in green, would you still have an intact downtrend or would you have at least one candle with its open, high, low and close to the right of the trend line?

I understand this may seem like semantics but it is critical so we can all be consistent in our approach every time we look to draw Trend lines.
in some ways, the fact that we are having this conversation shows that TLs are the one subjective part of the strategy.
We could easily all draw them differently.

Alfonso has done a lot of work in helping us all do things mechanically so it is repeatable so I need to understand so I can repeat the process time and time again.

best wishes
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,966
  • Edited 10:15am Feb 2, 2016 9:42am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Chawl. Thank you for your input. Makes it interesting. I was looking at the Trend line rule about joining peaks though, not so much lower lows. That rule about trend lines should have us joining peaks once a lower low is made. So if you were to join the peaks you kindly highlighted in green, would you still have an intact downtrend or would you have at least one candle with its open, high, low and close to the right of the trend line? I understand this may seem like semantics but it is critical so we can all be consistent in our approach...
I've marked (possibly) correct TL with red, green lines are just to show how one should see the price action. Obviously you should have a trend to draw a trend line, otherwise it would be just a line connecting two points, and trends imply higher highs, lower lows by definition. I'm with you that trend lines might be confusing time to time, but by considering the underlying "trend" in terms of "price levels" things may become easier.

Edit: I saw your image recently. I think you should consider wicks of the candles carefully, as price continues to make lower lows, you should draw the trend line tangent to extremes of all the price action which reached the last lower low as in my drawing. If price fails to make a new lower low, then you can leave your trend line in its last position and consider a TL break thereafter. You may ask why I haven't covered the high of the last green candle, that's because your weekly chart clearly shows that lowest of that monthly candle formed way before its highest, so taking its highest point as my trend line's pivot would be quite misleading.
Trade what you see..
  • #6,967
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:46am Feb 2, 2016 9:46am
Quoting panoramia
Weekly supply zone still in control on EURUSD, price has been bouncing from it for the last weeks creating brand new supply zones in lower timeframes like H4. Bullish D1 trendline has been broken creating a potential D1 supply formed by a bearish engulfing pattern where there is a nested H4 supply zone. Lots of room to opposing strong D1 demand zone at 1.0332 {image}

where to find those two indicators please, thank you
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  • #6,968
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:32pm Feb 2, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting soryn
{quote} where to find those two indicators please, thank you {image}

You have to go to this Website and register: http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

I think the left one is only available in the private communtity, the upper right one is the rectangle indicater which is for free after registration.
  • #6,969
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:24pm Feb 2, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting soryn
{quote} where to find those two indicators please, thank you {image}
That indicator as well as other indicators are tools have been created by members of the set and forget community for the community, they are not available here sorry.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,970
  • Feb 2, 2016 7:19pm Feb 2, 2016 7:19pm
Hello Alfonso and everybody!

I have a question about USDCAD. My analisys is LONG bias. Price reached Weekly Demand zone but didn't reached Daily Demand Zone nested in Weekly by 12 pips (FXCM broker) and bounced UP.
In this case we have to delete bylimit order and it is not longer valid?

Thank's
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  • #6,971
  • Feb 2, 2016 11:15pm Feb 2, 2016 11:15pm
hi alfonso in the lastest video you said about FRA40eur. i confuse down trend in this case. you connect two peak by yeallow down trend, but i see there are more a peak lower(peak #2). so i draw it red downtrend, and as rule conf with tested higher zone in trend: break trendline and a S/D zone takeout. if i right, demand cause break trendline and peak #2 be remove. monthy up. is it validate? please explain me!
cheers!
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  • #6,972
  • Feb 3, 2016 6:31am Feb 3, 2016 6:31am
Hello everyone

GBP/AUD. Thought I'd share this set analysis.
Views and comments welcome please.

Best wishes

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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,973
  • Feb 3, 2016 7:59am Feb 3, 2016 7:59am
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone GBP/AUD. Thought I'd share this set analysis. Views and comments welcome please. Best wishes {image}{image}{image}
Daily down trend "will be" broken when the last candle closed at the end of the day
Trade what you see..
  • #6,974
  • Feb 3, 2016 8:08am Feb 3, 2016 8:08am
Quoting baolong610
hi alfonso in the lastest video you said about FRA40eur. i confuse down trend in this case. you connect two peak by yeallow down trend, but i see there are more a peak lower(peak #2). so i draw it red downtrend, and as rule conf with tested higher zone in trend: break trendline and a S/D zone takeout. if i right, demand cause break trendline and peak #2 be remove. monthy up. is it validate? please explain me! cheers! {image}
monthy supply fresh and original control so buy at weekly is not good idea
  • #6,975
  • Feb 3, 2016 8:55am Feb 3, 2016 8:55am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Daily down trend "will be" broken when the last candle closed at the end of the day


Chawl you made me laugh today so thank you.
You are absolutely right.
Point taken.
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,976
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:41am Feb 3, 2016 9:41am
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates

i have a short on h4 and d1 supply
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passion and discipline
  • #6,977
  • Feb 3, 2016 9:51am Feb 3, 2016 9:51am
Quoting rohule
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates i have a short on h4 and d1 supply {image}
Hello Rohule. well done on this trade
I took the same trade.

I exited my positions this morning.
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,978
  • Feb 3, 2016 10:17am Feb 3, 2016 10:17am
Hello,
whether the approach of the plan and of the investment?
Sorry for my English.
it helps me google
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my dream Australia.....
  • #6,979
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting darko40
Hello, whether the approach of the plan and of the investment? Sorry for my English. it helps me google {image} {image} {image}
Hello my friend,

I don't know what you are asking for. You uploaded your top down supply and demand analysis for NZDUSD but I don't know what you are asking since there is no question.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,980
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm Feb 3, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting rohule
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates i have a short on h4 and d1 supply {image}
Well done on that supply short on AUDJPY Roberto, similar trades on CADJPY at WK supply zone and other Yen cross pairs.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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