Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 348 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,941
  • Jan 30, 2016 6:34am Jan 30, 2016 6:34am
Hello Frank
thank you for sharing your idea
I have the same analysis
Just a note on the weekly trend line - you want to only use the last 2 valleys. The one u drew goes too far back and probably belongs to a larger timeframe.
The weekly trendline should just connect the last 2 valleys

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,942
  • Jan 30, 2016 9:04am Jan 30, 2016 9:04am
Quoting Akt
Hello Frank thank you for sharing your idea I have the same analysis Just a note on the weekly trend line - you want to only use the last 2 valleys. The one u drew goes too far back and probably belongs to a larger timeframe. The weekly trendline should just connect the last 2 valleys Best wishes
Yeah Thanks I noticed that,
I sent you a message on your profile.

Hope u respond
FRK
  • #6,943
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:25am Feb 1, 2016 12:25am
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone USDJPY Short into daily supply monthly has violated lows Weekly is down daily is down short inside daily supply zone {image}
Hello Akt,

The way you are talking is like taking into account price action alone and not supply and demand imbalances. You said monthly lows have been violated, well that may have happened, but what you didn't mention or attached is a monthly chart. Monthly demand zone is in control on USD/JPY and price rallied strongly from there + monthly 20 ema confluence. If somebody attaches a monthly chart, you will see what I mean. You are just using the Daily chart for your analysis, at least you are only referring to it, but what about a top down analysis?

Longer term long bias, monthly demand zone.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,944
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:38am Feb 1, 2016 12:38am
Weekly supply in control on USDCHF, the one that took out previous weekly CP demand. Too high to buy. If new supply imbalances are created on D1 and H4, some shorts could happen.

Else waiting for weekly supply to be broken to continue buying.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,945
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:39am Feb 1, 2016 12:39am
Tested monthly demand zone in control on USDJPY. Brand new D1 demand imbalances created. D1 and H4 longs available to keep on trading in the longer picture long bias.

Room to reach upper tested weekly supply zone where there is a D1 supply zone that has been tested 3 times.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 88 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,946
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:40am Feb 1, 2016 12:40am
Weekly supply zone still in control on EURUSD, price has been bouncing from it for the last weeks creating brand new supply zones in lower timeframes like H4.
Bullish D1 trendline has been broken creating a potential D1 supply formed by a bearish engulfing pattern where there is a nested H4 supply zone. Lots of room to opposing strong D1 demand zone at 1.0332
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,947
  • Feb 1, 2016 1:30am Feb 1, 2016 1:30am
My Analysis on Copper:

Monthly: down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Weekly: down, but opposing DZ in control

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily: out of alignement, fresh DZ was created. We can go countertrend long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XCUUSDDaily.png Size: 37 KB
  • #6,948
  • Edited 3:14am Feb 1, 2016 2:56am | Edited 3:14am
New Daily demand zone to buy Facebook US stock. Weekly demand zone in control.

Daily imbalance has the strongest picture an imbalance can have, a gap up in a clear uptrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,949
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:52am Feb 1, 2016 5:52am
Alfonso ,what is the confirmation image example?
an example?
on the graph?
my dream Australia.....
  • #6,950
  • Feb 1, 2016 6:24am Feb 1, 2016 6:24am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Akt, The way you are talking is like taking into account price action alone and not supply and demand imbalances. You said monthly lows have been violated, well that may have happened, but what you didn't mention or attached is a monthly chart. Monthly demand zone is in control on USD/JPY and price rallied strongly from there + monthly 20 ema confluence. If somebody attaches a monthly chart, you will see what I mean. You are just using the Daily chart for your analysis, at least you are only referring to it, but what about a top down...
Hello Alfonso
Thank you so much for your feedback. Much appreciated.

I only ever do top down analysis, nothing else. That's the only thing I have learnt. I have never understood how someone can trade without referencing multiple time frames

I have attached a monthly chart now. I just didn't add it because I thought saying it was enough and so just posted the daily for discussion sake.

Just to say also, I don't use the 20 period EMA confluences at all. I have not found them useful personally but I know you have. That's the only difference I have found since I started learning from you.
You have helped bring structure to my knowledge of S&D so thank you sir.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy a.PNG Size: 84 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,951
  • Feb 1, 2016 6:54am Feb 1, 2016 6:54am
Hello everyone.

Please allow me to present a method I learnt for mechanically identifying supply and demand zones. I did not invent this, I merely learnt it from other S&D traders.
Alfonso has referenced some of them in his webinars, Jose Blasco, Justin Krebs, Sam seiden, Sam evans etc.
I learnt this particular approach from Jose Blasco.

He teaches a "boring-exciting" approach to identifying a zone.

1. Find a large move in price. As i said in a previous post, always start with the imbalance rather than the zone. Find the imbalance then trace it back to its source
2. Once you reach the end of the imbalance, apply the boring-exciting method to identify the base

A boring candle is a candle whose open to close range is less than or equal to 50% of the entire range of the candle from high to low (basically a candle with a considerably smaller body compared to the entire candle including the wicks)

An exciting candle is one whose open to close range is >50% of the entire range of the candle from high to low (basically a candle with a body almost as wide in range as the entire candle itself)

Boring candles are used to identify basing
Exciting candles denote the imbalances we look for in S&D i.e the so called Expanded or large range candles or large moves away.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy b.PNG Size: 89 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,952
  • Feb 1, 2016 6:55am Feb 1, 2016 6:55am
Alfonso, please see my chart below.
I would really appreciate your view on it.

Best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy c.PNG Size: 77 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,953
  • Feb 1, 2016 9:26am Feb 1, 2016 9:26am
Regarding EUR/USD

Thank you very much for your analysis Alfonso.

Full disclosure..I took a short from a 3hr SZ in that daily SZ area you highlighted. Trade just entered in the last few minutes
I had not intended to look at the EUR/USD but your analysis caught my eye so I went to look.
Just barely had time to enter as I completed my analysis and so ended up taking what's called a number 3 entry i.e entering as price is leaving the zone
Not enough time to do my usual set and forget.
Added to my position inside the zone as well using confirmation

Thanks again Sir.

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,954
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:00pm Feb 1, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting Akt
Alfonso, please see my chart below. I would really appreciate your view on it. Best wishes{image}
That's the monthly demand zone, you like it or not, it's demand. You wait for confirmation since it's been tested several times. Going short against it is not high odds.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,955
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:01pm Feb 1, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting darko40
Alfonso ,what is the confirmation image example? an example? on the graph?
Confirmation is explained in many webinars and throughout the thread my friend. Take your time to read the posts and watch the free webinars. The information is there. I just can't repeat things over and over, I am sure you understand what I mean, you must do your homework, read the posts, watch the webinars and practice.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,956
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:45pm Feb 1, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That's the monthly demand zone, you like it or not, it's demand. You wait for confirmation since it's been tested several times. Going short against it is not high odds. Cheers, Alfonso
Thank u alfonso. Much obliged.
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,957
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:11pm Feb 1, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting panoramia
Weekly supply zone still in control on EURUSD, price has been bouncing from it for the last weeks creating brand new supply zones in lower timeframes like H4. Bullish D1 trendline has been broken creating a potential D1 supply formed by a bearish engulfing pattern where there is a nested H4 supply zone. Lots of room to opposing strong D1 demand zone at 1.0332
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 119 KB

Not sure what should I think about green rectangle. To me it seems like possible demand but not confirmed. Are you somehow counting with it? Is it safe to sell from supply against this possible demand?
  • #6,958
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:30am Feb 2, 2016 12:30am
NGAS MN/W1 is clearly down, Price has been dropping from a weekly supply level afetr re-aligning with the monthly downtrend
D1 creacted a cp supply level and triggered, Shorts is the way.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,959
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:12am Feb 2, 2016 1:12am
I Planned this trade last week on UNOK, MN is up and reacting to monthly supply level. W1 creacted a supply level after the break of a weekly ascending trendline. D1 is out of alignment creacted a cp supply level that was triggered last week. Counter trend short is all we need down to tested weekly demand level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: UNOKD1.png Size: 26 KB
  • #6,960
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:33am Feb 2, 2016 1:33am
Quoting Milanoss
{quote} {image} Not sure what should I think about green rectangle. To me it seems like possible demand but not confirmed. Are you somehow counting with it? Is it safe to sell from supply against this possible demand?
That D1 demand zone on EURUSD is confirmed, it broke previous daily bearish trendline. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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