• Home
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • User/Email: Password:
  • 5:57pm
Menu
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 5:57pm
Sister Sites
  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Printable Version

Similar Threads

How did you do this week? - Surviving a bad week 5 replies

Why did YOU persist after years of unprofitable trading? 42 replies

Why did EURUSD drop right after Dec 1st? 7 replies

why did EUR/JPY drop during NFP? 32 replies

Why did jpy strengthen? 17 replies

  • Trading Discussion
  • /
  • Reply to Thread
  • Subscribe
  • 4
Attachments: Why did the USD/JPY go up after bad GDP figures on 29 January?
Exit Attachments

Why did the USD/JPY go up after bad GDP figures on 29 January?

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Jan 29, 2016 4:52pm Jan 29, 2016 4:52pm
  •  Fibigero
  • | Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Member | 5 Posts
As you see on the screenshots (one showing the chart, the other the calender), today we saw the USD/JPY going up for around 70 pips after some releases (incl. GDP) at 3.30pm (GMT+2). I was wondering why it went up when the GDP numbers were below the forecast. Can anyone explain that?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: cal.JPG
Size: 38 KB


Attached Image
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2016 7:16pm Jan 29, 2016 7:16pm
  •  steve10%
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 348 Posts
The earlier news release from the BOJ was the only thing that mattered today.
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2016 7:19pm Jan 29, 2016 7:19pm
  •  TheGreatMilenko
  • Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 967 Posts
Quoting Fibigero
Disliked
As you see on the screenshots (one showing the chart, the other the calender), today we saw the USD/JPY going up for around 70 pips after some releases (incl. GDP) at 3.30pm (GMT+2). I was wondering why it went up when the GDP numbers were below the forecast. Can anyone explain that? {image} {image}
Ignored
No. No one can explain that.
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2016 8:39pm Jan 29, 2016 8:39pm
  •  tunera
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2005 | 2,784 Posts
Today boj went negative on rates, what would you expect usdjpy to do?
Surely a a bad us gdp figure wasn't going to let usdjpy go down, to not talk about the fact that gdp figures nowadays are all fake and irrelevants, just go with the flow and don't pay attention to minor news.
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2016 9:06pm Jan 29, 2016 9:06pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,081 Posts
Curiously, both EU and GU fell across the same period, perhaps suggesting that any rise in UJ was (at least partly) caused by USD strength as much as it was JPY weakness.
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2016 9:12pm Jan 29, 2016 9:12pm
  •  SmoothTrader
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Perpetual Student of the Charts | 947 Posts
While the GDP (QoQ) was 0.1% less than what was forecast which is negative, there was a large upward revision to the previous quarters reading that more than offset the negative current number. This may have prompted some of the USD strength. This combined with the BOJ implementing negative interest rates propelled the USD/JPY.

GREEN pips to one and all.
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2016 10:50pm Jan 29, 2016 10:50pm
  •  numbnuts
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: overcaffeinated.... | 1,536 Posts
The GDP wasn't that bad - it was expected to fall from 2% to 0.8%, instead it fell to 0.7% (which isn't a great deal different). It's old news anyway ..... it is Q4 2015 growth, and we have all known for a while now that GDP growth fell away drastically at the end of 2015.

BOJ introducing negative rates a few hours beforehand created huge buying pressure across all the JPY pairs - clearly a lot of traders hesitated 'just in case' the US GDP report contained a big surprise. It didn't, so they continued buying UJ.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2016 1:57am Jan 30, 2016 1:57am
  •  Mingary
  • Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 6,275 Posts
Always consider that any price move is always in the direction that will cause the most damage to most accounts.
The price moves from one level to another not because traders are making money, but because they are losing.
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2016 2:40am Jan 30, 2016 2:40am
  •  jw1981
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 486 Posts

  1. Weak GDP numbers were already priced in. Missed estimates by a soft margin. So didn't make much difference
  2. BoJ's -ve rate surprise wasn't priced in, so USDJPY was merely evolving over the day
  3. Markets were in nearly 2 weeks of risk aversion mode.. and by Week 2 looking at anything possible for a rally (remember the small rally after Draghi's presser before markets fell back again)
  4. End of month $ flows
  5. Mr. Market is fickle
  6. Supply demand/technicals
  7. .... <<add any other justifiable headlines here>>

  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2016 4:37am Jan 30, 2016 4:37am
  •  skfx
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 537 Posts
Also allow for what the FX market has positioned for.
They will position for an expectation.
If they expect Kuroda to fire the pistol left and they have traded that in, then they will have a problem if Kuroda then fires the pistol right.

The market had been digging the JPY since start of the year on risk-off trade along with expectations that BOJ was getting close to being done easing.
(See below for positioning in JPY)

rgds
S
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: jpy1.png
Size: 148 KB

Attached Image
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2016 4:47am Jan 30, 2016 4:47am
  •  GnWFx
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 99 Posts
Interestingly, at GDP news time EU, GU as well as UJ were, each one, displaying reverse (some call it hidden) divergence on the last closing candles on 15m and 30m charts, indicating a continuation of previous trend.
I am perfect, I don't make mistaeks, misstaks, misteaks, miskates...
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jan 30, 2016 11:46am Jan 30, 2016 11:46am
  •  GEfx
  • Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,118 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Fibigero
Disliked
As you see on the screenshots (one showing the chart, the other the calender), today we saw the USD/JPY going up for around 70 pips after some releases (incl. GDP) at 3.30pm (GMT+2). I was wondering why it went up when the GDP numbers were below the forecast. Can anyone explain that? {image} {image}
Ignored
Consider what the market "knew" (had priced in, to some extent) before the GDP announcement. It knew or was projecting that GDP would be reported below 1%, with consensus being .8. But, it also knew that the early revisions to GDP are going to push it up to around 1%. So when the .7 was printed, you can start pricing in the .3 improvement to GDP. If the print had been 1.5, the market would start pricing in a reduction to later GDP figures for the 4th. However, the market has already anticipated lower GDP and what we saw on Friday was fine tuning of data released the previous 24 hours. USDJPY ended the day at about where it was at the GDP announcement. If you thing about market structure, the GDP announcement did nothing to alter structure, whereas the BOJ announcement did. Something to consider going forward.
  • Trading Discussion
  • /
  • Why did the USD/JPY go up after bad GDP figures on 29 January?
  • Reply to Thread
0 traders viewing now
Top of Page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
About FF
  • Mission
  • Products
  • User Guide
  • Media Kit
  • Blog
  • Contact
FF Products
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • Calendar
  • News
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Trade Explorer
FF Website
  • Homepage
  • Search
  • Members
  • Report a Bug
Follow FF
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

FF Sister Sites:

  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Forex Factory® is a brand of Fair Economy, Inc.

Terms of Service / ©2021