Menu

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Right Wrong Right Wrong Right Wrong 13 replies

EURUSD - why did the market suddenly go flat? 7 replies

Why did the EURUSD stall out? 6 replies

why did EUR/JPY drop during NFP? 32 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

Attachments: Why did EURUSD drop right after Dec 1st?
Exit Attachments

Why did EURUSD drop right after Dec 1st?

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Dec 28, 2009 3:34pm Dec 28, 2009 3:34pm
Like the title says. EURUSD was gaining steadily but after 12/1-12/3 has been dropping steadily. Did something specific happen? Interest rate announcement? End of fiscal year? Someone killed Santa? What did I miss?
Quoting BF Skinner
What did I miss?
Technical analysis? EUR/USD was in overbought for too long.
fundamentally, not a clue

but technically, on a day chart we have a beautiful rejection bar that closes under that down sloping red line (see area at yellow circle), from there,
there is an 80% chance price will reach the middle red line, and then,
if it breaks that line, a 70% chance price will reach the lowest red line,
at this point if it reverses, which it has, there is a whooping 90% probability price will reach that middle red line again, which is where it is presently headed.

..........systematic trading backed up by solid statistics
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 291209.gif Size: 32 KB
Just a silly USD rally. The same thing happened to GBPUSD, AUDUSD, etc. No real reason for it other than some retracement. I look for the dollar to start sliding again early in 2010.
Quoting BF Skinner
Like the title says. EURUSD was gaining steadily but after 12/1-12/3 has been dropping steadily. Did something specific happen? Interest rate announcement? End of fiscal year? Someone killed Santa? What did I miss?
on 12/3 there was a pinbar @ swing high, no other things involved

*sigh*
Never whishing, always trading.
Quoting BF Skinner
Like the title says. EURUSD was gaining steadily but after 12/1-12/3 has been dropping steadily. Did something specific happen? Interest rate announcement? End of fiscal year? Someone killed Santa? What did I miss?

Non Farm Payrolls
wow, thanks for the great responses.

PeterE, i understand your red and blue lines form a sort of "performance envelope" and when the market moves outside the envelope, this signals a change in trend. my question is, where did you get the statistics? how do you know there's an 80% chance it will hit the middle line, for example? (i'm not doubting your method, just curious about it!)

magnumfreak, that's what i was thinking too, i noticed it in GBPUSD but never looked at AUDUSD. good find.
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Dec 29, 2009 5:37pm Dec 29, 2009 5:37pm
hi BF, my response was based upon median lines, also known as Andrews Pitch Fork. The stats are tried-and-tested, and orginally extracted from this document http://le-blog-de-reklats.over-blog....-30572730.html

the essence of this document is summarised in the picture below


Quoting BF Skinner
wow, thanks for the great responses.

PeterE, i understand your red and blue lines form a sort of "performance envelope" and when the market moves outside the envelope, this signals a change in trend. my question is, where did you get the statistics? how do you know there's an 80% chance it will hit the middle line, for example? (i'm not doubting your method, just curious about it!)

magnumfreak, that's what i was thinking too, i noticed it in GBPUSD but never looked at AUDUSD. good find.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ML Probs.gif Size: 67 KB
0 traders viewing now