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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,901
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:30pm Jan 27, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Close to death... think, I got a cold. {image}
I bet you are just as pleasant in person when you have a cold as you are around here....

Home remedy here is to squeeze two lemons into a container of orange juice. I guess it works, seems to for me. Get well soon old man!
  • #138,902
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:31pm Jan 27, 2016 1:31pm
lol pretty much dont understand at all how all those crazy guys use "mofus" - but just for the sake of technical stuff this one looks very clear as long as my primitive knowledge does!
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  • #138,903
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:38pm Jan 27, 2016 1:38pm
Quoting Pharm0r
hope you guys are well
hangin in, recovered from eyeball surgery couple weeks ago, hydrocodone messed me up, traded thru it every day, still made money while hallucinating. Thought of you wit the blizzard, but you missed big snow? I just like to look at it...preferably on TV while I am sunning somewhere. I am selling fat SPY put spreads, betting on a risk asset rebound in February.....best to you....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,904
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:44pm Jan 27, 2016 1:44pm
sisse, is there any explanation why both AUD and NZD gave up against the dollar? I know its just a few pips but in exactly opposite way than on EUR or JPY... Is it just because the dovish FED just underlines the possible seriousness/uncertainty of the situation = china, equities, volatility, commodities.... and all that is gonna hammer them if materializes further?

P.S. thanks for the perfect post pre-FED
  • #138,905
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:49pm Jan 27, 2016 1:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hangin in, recovered from eyeball surgery couple weeks ago, hydrocodone messed me up, traded thru it every day, still made money while hallucinating. Thought of you wit the blizzard, but you missed big snow? I just like to look at it...preferably on TV while I am sunning somewhere. I am selling fat SPY put spreads, betting on a risk asset rebound in February.....best to you....
I caught the blizzard in Texas, the blizzard missed me here. Get vision correction or something? Mine is going- doc said that so far my vision has degraded normally compared to my age and my vision a year prior....sure doesn't feel that way to me...

I enjoy going to the snow to play- and leaving it right where it was when I'm done. Have a handful Jan '17 uso $20 calls @ .15, wanted to load double that @ .10....wasn't meant to be....still waiting. Girlfriend couldnt make up her mind whether or not she wanted a piece, so she's having to sit tight as well.
  • #138,906
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:08pm Jan 27, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I caught the blizzard in Texas, the blizzard missed me here. Get vision correction or something? Mine is going- doc said that so far my vision has degraded normally compared to my age and my vision a year prior....sure doesn't feel that way to me... I enjoy going to the snow to play- and leaving it right where it was when I'm done. Have a handful Jan '17 uso $20 calls @ .15, wanted to load double that @ .10....wasn't meant to be....still waiting. Girlfriend couldnt make up her mind whether or not she wanted a piece, so she's having to sit tight...
what, you & your gf are trading together? That's precious. No I have lens implants that seem to blow up about every 10 yrs & have to be redone - nbd, really. I am looking forward to the coming head transplant craze. If I could keep my head going through several body iterations I might have a chance of being a good trader someday.

USO '17 $20 calls gives you room to work - watch for front month $20's (or nearby) to be worth something so you can sell those against your long calls and lower your cost basis
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,907
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:19pm Jan 27, 2016 2:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} what, you & your gf are trading together? That's precious. No I have lens implants that seem to blow up about every 10 yrs & have to be redone - nbd, really. I am looking forward to the coming head transplant craze. If I could keep my head going through several body iterations I might have a chance of being a good trader someday. USO '17 $20 calls gives you room to work - watch for front month $20's (or nearby) to be worth something so you can sell those against your long calls and lower your cost basis
haha- no. She has a savings account with more dough than I have in my trading account. She's the save-money-in-savings-and-complain-about-investing-but-never-invest-because-always-scared-to-lose-money type. When options arise I try to get her involved, but she doesn't understand it and doesn't really have an interest in it.....and I refuse to lose her money for her because I know where that ends. So here we are at an impasse..

Not sure the monkeys enjoyed their head transplants
  • #138,908
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:42pm Jan 27, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting chester123
sisse, is there any explanation why both AUD and NZD gave up against the dollar? I know its just a few pips but in exactly opposite way than on EUR or JPY... Is it just because the dovish FED just underlines the possible seriousness/uncertainty of the situation = china, equities, volatility, commodities.... and all that is gonna hammer them if materializes further? P.S. thanks for the perfect post pre-FED
Check out the RBNZ (which I'm sure you've now seen): no change in rates but a decidedly dovish tone, nothwithstanding the nod to house prices, leaving the door open to further easing.
  • #138,909
  • Jan 27, 2016 3:58pm Jan 27, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting sisse
NJ 77.4x [check early today] was/is the cheap ticket for the BOJ/RBNZ play. 76.4x [in play] is the rain maker for the swing for a quick test 71.3x with extension 69.8x and to the other side with BOJ action, a direct retrace to the 79.5x before deciding next steps

.. NJ, we lost 76.4x triggering Imminent Break Down alerts for the BOJ/RBNZ combo play.
Eyes on the roll for those tracking/trading NJ. RBNZ play under way with the close @ 76.4x ....surprise surprise ...not really . Choose you poison time ...I already chose mine ...

On the rest of the board, all inline with expectation with the FED. Without surprises also Euro held 1.091x and rolling on the micro flip 1.088xx as widely expected. Equities also easily held break outs so both pretty much in pure tech moves for the end's of month flows.

BOJ later this week and we are pretty much set to close a very wild January. Expecting volatility to shift from RISK / OIL / Equities to Dollar/ GOLD and to lesser extend Treasuries in the upcoming days.

Nothing to do here so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,910
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:24pm Jan 27, 2016 5:24pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} Check out the RBNZ (which I'm sure you've now seen): no change in rates but a decidedly dovish tone, nothwithstanding the nod to house prices, leaving the door open to further easing.
oh yes, absolutely, I just meant the imminent reaction during the first hour after FED cuz all the commodity curencies depreciated - Ive understood the reaction as an acknowledgement of the "risks" on side of FED (negative in the psychological sense that even FED officially noticed (ehm, something which is obvious)) so thats why it weighted on those currencies.... but as you say.... in case of RBNZ - NZD took the "drivers seat"
  • #138,911
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:09am Jan 28, 2016 1:09am
Quoting chester123
{quote} oh yes, absolutely, I just meant the imminent reaction during the first hour after FED cuz all the commodity curencies depreciated - Ive understood the reaction as an acknowledgement of the "risks" on side of FED (negative in the psychological sense that even FED officially noticed (ehm, something which is obvious)) so thats why it weighted on those currencies.... but as you say.... in case of RBNZ - NZD took the "drivers seat"
I thought the Fed played it well last night, striking a difficult balance of acknowledging risks but not veering from December's forecast, which leaves the option of a March hike in their hands. Had they struck a too dovish tone, a greater sell-off in risk assets would have likely ensued (which is great for trading but not what central banking is all about!).
  • #138,912
  • Jan 28, 2016 6:50am Jan 28, 2016 6:50am
A very sluggish european morning...

Markets digesting the FED as inline with expectations (slightly dovish but without compromise) and we are back in the "good news is good news" and "bad news is also good news (via FED)" for US equities so adapting expectations accordingly.

Without any risk legs we are set to complete the legs (both sides of the Atlantic) and is only a matter or breaking the tiny range. More importantly, 1867.xx holding the M close will lock short term the lows and set the LOW of this Quarter in US equities.

Not much to do here but wait to see how it pans out with all markets in super compress areas until NY gives the go ahead until the M close. Soft reports coming but not expected much. US markets with the upper hand for the rest of the week with a brief ( ) for the BOJ ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,913
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:40am Jan 28, 2016 7:40am
Awful miss...watch-out for stops cluttered all the way up the 1.10xx handle ....

Not the news I would have liked the most ...without an extra hand from NY we pretty much over for the month and week (both low and high of the month and week are set) in Equities leaving us in chop zone until next week ...Eyes on the open and crunching time in the Euro for both, those who are holding from the W roll play 1.08xx handle and for the FED play shorts 1.091x....

Here sitting tight across the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,914
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:56am Jan 28, 2016 7:56am
934 for a retrace, later for higher highs should be ok...

since fed and ecb i think of higher prices till draghi comes later, dont know the date and if hes confirming qe could spark a down move with the fed interest rate combo...

am i thinking right sisse?

thanks.
  • #138,915
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:09am Jan 28, 2016 8:09am
Quoting Vladimir1987
934 for a retrace, later for higher highs should be ok... since fed and ecb i think of higher prices till draghi comes later, dont know the date and if hes confirming qe could spark a down move with the fed interest rate combo... am i thinking right sisse? thanks.
Yeap as we have been discussing FED kicked the can till March for MId term play. A zigzag is pretty much done deal. 1.086x for the M roll will confirmed and leave us in wide neutral chop a few weeks....On the short term plays nothing new, there are the same levels and same plays...NY coming to roll the dice or leave us in comatose sessions till the M close....right now it's just 'minion'trading so wouldnt pay much attention ....sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,916
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:10am Jan 28, 2016 8:10am
Must be tweet day. FF news filled with red flags. Some of us are trying to have a normal day here....
  • #138,917
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:29am Jan 28, 2016 10:29am
Equities barely held but held the opening range and are set to hold the European close ... we are back to square one as expected while Euro keep grinding the highs with bulls for the 15th time since December attempting to crack song Resistance with major stops staggered at the highs ....

...not much to do here but track closely the afternoon session so same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,918
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:31am Jan 28, 2016 10:31am
Quoting sisse
Equities barely held but held the opening range and are set to hold the European close ... we are back to square one as expected while Euro keep grinding the highs with bulls for the 15th time since December attempting to crack song Resistance with major stops staggered at the highs .... ...not much to do here but track closely the afternoon session so same levels, same trades, same all ... sisse
What do you think about oil
  • #138,919
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:52am Jan 28, 2016 11:52am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} $30 oil is gonna be hardening up the more this panic chatter about coordinating production cuts persists....short squeeze action could take us pretty quickly back towards $45 on "buy the rumor".....wait for the OPEC emergency meeting announcement if you want to see some shorts cover......altho maybe it'll be sneakier than that......anywho, $20 oil looks like an insane mirage compared to $45.....and if there be real cutting by strong hand producers, we will see $60 again by Summer.
wti could be bumping above $35 on "buy the rumor" but with inventories still at 80-yr highs ( ) "sell the fact" is gonna catch up, so I am looking for short opps while I listen to the news. wti $27.5x from last week or whenever is probly your bottom to look at for some time, but I won't be surprised at another dip to $30 or a little lower.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,920
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:16pm Jan 28, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting sisse
--> For those into 'roll playing', cheap tickets available [check]on the close today for the dovish short term FED play 1.086x [check] -> 1.094x [check]-> 1.114x[in play]....so choose your poison time on the failure to take the 1.08xx [check]if you are up for outsmarting the...
Shoulda Woulda Coulda....didn't ... flawless call on the Euro but not a penny in the bank... very well done all that trade the close last week (i know of a couple here ..) ...

Euro completing main target 1.094x but still struggling at the highs. Hard part is done with a break 1.091x today unlocking the direct dovish play from the FED flows (and obviously triggering clearing time for shorts) ...expecting soft profit taking for the monthly close flows as we enter in major levels for trading.

On the rest of the board nothing new, Equities, Gold and Oil on track with BOJ on sight for the Yen pairs...

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote} wit could be bumping above $35 on "buy the rumour" but with inventories still at 80-yr highs ( ) "sell the fact" is gonna catch up, so I am looking for short opps while I listen to the news. wti $27.5x from last week or whenever is probly your bottom to look at for some time, but I won't be surprised at another dip to $30 or a little lower.....
I agree. This rally looks pretty hollow mainly on profit taking on a tick up on each handle. The tricky part is getting an entry as we are in the middle of nowhere with very little in terms of TA to enter a trade and very high risk for stops.

Tracking in it closely but haven't have a clear map yet. The M close may give some soft hints for a better trade ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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