AUD/USD | Page 4751 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #95,001
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:10pm Jan 27, 2016 4:10pm
been busy building shorts for a final push to 6980. if price reaches there will consider reversing the position.
let's see what asia has to offer.
As Above, So Below
  • #95,002
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:26pm Jan 27, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting digger1
{quote}Everything is neutral, bearish ,bullish ,flat till its not.
lol... isn't that the truth.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #95,003
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:35pm Jan 27, 2016 4:35pm
That bearish cycle is playing out just a little. No where near any of my support just yet, we'll see if it persists. There is a bullish cyclical signal beginning to show on the bottom of the chart, but these typically need to develop a while before they become meaningful. Although the market doesn't care what I think - I'm still favoring some sell-off at least into Tash' targets, but it gets harder to call the deeper it goes into the channel... For digger that is officially neutral/neutral with a half twist of bearish bias.
Attached Image
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #95,004
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:49pm Jan 27, 2016 4:49pm
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
That bearish cycle is playing out just a little. No where near any of my support just yet, we'll see if it persists. There is a bullish cyclical signal beginning to show on the bottom of the chart, but these typically need to develop a while before they become meaningful. Although the market doesn't care what I think - I'm still favoring some sell-off at least into Tash' targets, but it gets harder to call the deeper it goes into the channel... For digger that is officially neutral/neutral with a half twist of bearish bias. {image}
Well that certainly clears it up
  • #95,005
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:09pm Jan 27, 2016 5:09pm
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
That bearish cycle is playing out just a little. No where near any of my support just yet, we'll see if it persists. There is a bullish cyclical signal beginning to show on the bottom of the chart, but these typically need to develop a while before they become meaningful. Although the market doesn't care what I think - I'm still favoring some sell-off at least into Tash' targets, but it gets harder to call the deeper it goes into the channel... For digger that is officially neutral/neutral with a half twist of bearish bias. {image}
TFA, what is your view on usdchf? i have a feeling that it is getting ready to fall off the cliff within a few weeks. any insights from fundie or technical side on this one?
As Above, So Below
  • #95,006
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:07pm Jan 27, 2016 6:07pm
Iron will be under 30s sometime this year, CNY will be 7 by the end of this year. I can't see why AUD will not hit 0.65.
  • #95,007
  • Edited 7:45pm Jan 27, 2016 6:20pm | Edited 7:45pm
Okay so with anything Swiss-based, our biggest opportunity (risk) lies in intervention. The dollar has gained back all of its strength since SNB but that's not what set it of, it was the pegging to the Euro. That has gained about half of it's strength back and you have to wonder if and when they'll intervene again, which again will affect everything. That could be the real play...

The technical picture here, neither one of my macro signals is triggered yet, but I just check the reference and they are both close and they're not perfect. Most of my work is subject to something of a volatility bias and if markets creep into an area of overshoot really slow, it may not trigger on the scan. Just looking at the price action on the daily, it definitely looks like a cyclical top is in place on that time frame, when you pull out further, weekly and monthly it gets more neutral.

I think your assessment of a few weeks is pretty accurate - given the daily levels - and I think it could take that long to fully play out. You may only be looking at one or two weekly bars for a full run, not enough to really register a trend on that time frame, but enough to capitalize on. I think a reversal from daily levels, if you can hang in with it and fundamentals don't shift, could get you to 0.9700 before the end of the quarter.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: report 01-27-2016 17-05.png Size: 492 KB
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #95,008
  • Jan 27, 2016 7:14pm Jan 27, 2016 7:14pm
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
Okay so with anything Swiss-based, our biggest opportunity (risk) lies in intervention. The dollar has gained back all of it's strength since SNB but that's not what set it of, it was the pegging to the Euro. That has gained about half of it's strength back and you have to wonder if and when they'll intervene again, which again will affect everything. That could be the real play... The technical picture here, neither one of my macro signals is triggered yet, but I just check the reference and they are both close and they're not perfect. Most of...
thank you for the analysis, TFA.
considering to bringing this pair back to my trading desk in a few weeks and looking for the right setup on weekly.
happy trading.
As Above, So Below
  • #95,009
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:01am Jan 28, 2016 12:01am
AUDUSD has already reacted to our supply level @ 0.7080 , if this supply gets broken next clean supply is at 0.7200 , demand is seen at 0.6950 area. Let us see how price moves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7-AUDUSDH4 (2).png Size: 27 KB
  • #95,010
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:59am Jan 28, 2016 1:59am
Quoting amy4x
AUDUSD has already reacted to our supply level ...
Who is "our" ? How many of you?
  • #95,011
  • Jan 28, 2016 2:37am Jan 28, 2016 2:37am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Who is "our" ? How many of you?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #95,012
  • Jan 28, 2016 3:11am Jan 28, 2016 3:11am
With any luck, some longer term shorts will get triggered
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 30 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #95,013
  • Jan 28, 2016 4:15am Jan 28, 2016 4:15am
AUDUSD
- Contrarian Bias remains same as of now
- After FOMC/RBNZ retrace and forming a bearish Daily Close, Takes out highs and prolly going for 7125 LVL first
- Overall whole upside would be met with good amount of bears till 7170-7200 zone is taken out


MN TF
Attached Image


Just a Food of thought for TECHNICAL Traders esp. for BEARS (on larger TF)
Would you still short an instrument which just formed 6 years lows in this LONG Wick Monthly Candle (yet 4 days to go though)
Think
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #95,014
  • Jan 28, 2016 5:04am Jan 28, 2016 5:04am
Quoting forexsaint
AUDUSD - Contrarian Bias remains same as of now - After FOMC/RBNZ retrace and forming a bearish Daily Close, Takes out highs and prolly going for 7125 LVL first - Overall whole upside would be met with good amount of bears till 7170-7200 zone is taken out MN TF {image} Just a Food of thought for TECHNICAL Traders esp. for BEARS (on larger TF) Would you still short an instrument which just formed 6 years lows in this LONG Wick Monthly Candle (yet 4 days to go though) Think
Wick on it's own doesn't worry me - easy to find examples of longer wick like Aug 2011 where next month was down. Combined with 6 year low makes your case more compelling but not unlike Oct 2008. Nov 2008 shows that following month low was 70 pip from Oct low so selling 250 pip from current month's low doesn't phase me in the slightest. If we fail to make new low next month then would be more wary but even then probably not concerned about going short this far from the low.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,015
  • Jan 28, 2016 5:10am Jan 28, 2016 5:10am
Quoting forexsaint
AUDUSD - Contrarian Bias remains same as of now - After FOMC/RBNZ retrace and forming a bearish Daily Close, Takes out highs and prolly going for 7125 LVL first - Overall whole upside would be met with good amount of bears till 7170-7200 zone is taken out MN TF {image} Just a Food of thought for TECHNICAL Traders esp. for BEARS (on larger TF) Would you still short an instrument which just formed 6 years lows in this LONG Wick Monthly Candle (yet 4 days to go though) Think
that sounds about right. i will start positional shorts from 717x. unfortunately could not take any profits from yesterday's shorts, was waiting for little deeper retracement. now bull got the control back. the daily chart looks interesting.
As Above, So Below
  • #95,016
  • Jan 28, 2016 5:42am Jan 28, 2016 5:42am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Still long AUD +200 pips so far hopefully will be able to survive FOMC {image}
Close one AU long +250 pips

Leave the rest run ..........

Attached Image
  • #95,017
  • Edited 8:06am Jan 28, 2016 5:49am | Edited 8:06am
Well, it's proving a bit of a slow drag but my view is we are headed above 75 in the coming weeks and accordingly I'm long and have been for several days (as written in a previous post).

I thought I'd share an update I received from my broker which appears to at least support this view albeit with a lower target level;

AUDUSD
Bullish above 0.6985.

Standard Bank is opening long trades for AUD and NZD based on improved technical indicators for the two currencies. Enters long AUDUSD at 0.7020 with target of 0.7200 and stop at 0.6900; short EURAUD entered at 1.5460 with target of 1.5160 and stop at 1.5730. (source: BBG)
LCG: AUDUSD is in the bullish consolidation zone and is testing 0.7075 (Fib 50%) resistance on the upside. With stronger trend and momentum indicators, we may expect to see further extension of gains to 0.7149/52 (100 and 50 day moving averages respectively). Key support is eyed at 0.6985 (major 38.2% on Jan 20 to date rally).
Mid-term critical resistance remains at 0.7380 (Fib 38.2%). Below 0.7380, the mid-term bias remains negative and we see opportunity in selling the rallies.
  • #95,018
  • Jan 28, 2016 5:54am Jan 28, 2016 5:54am
I have a couple of questions to throw out to more experienced chartists. I don't have a sophisticated graph to illustrate my points, but that shouldn't be a problem for you lot. I previously saw a a head and shoulder pattern develop from Nov. 19 to Jan. 6th on the daily chart. When it broke the neckline at about 7120 on Jan. 6th, I estimated a downside target of appx. 69.03. An alternative neckline at about 70.22 formed from Nov. 11 to break on Jan. 7th , with a target of appx. 6827. The second, and lowest, target was hit precisely on Jan. 16. Today at open I think we broke an inverse head and shoulder at 70.49 on the daily, and moved decisively above the previously broken neckline of 70.22, which set the target for the eventual bottom and turnaround. Now today's high of 70.91 sits only 29 points below the neckline formed on Jan. 6th. Breaking the inverse head and shoulder today should be significant, and should we expect a test of 7120 before any retrace? I see a lot of shorts being taken, and I'm tempted to be influenced by the greater experience of those of you taking them, but I"d like your opinions of my thoughts before I do anything. I think this range we're in now is the deciding point for the trend in the near term. Up or down?
  • #95,019
  • Jan 28, 2016 6:01am Jan 28, 2016 6:01am
Quoting dab
{quote} Wick on it's own doesn't worry me - easy to find examples of longer wick like Aug 2011 where next month was down. Combined with 6 year low makes your case more compelling but not unlike Oct 2008. Nov 2008 shows that following month low was 70 pip from Oct low so selling 250 pip from current month's low doesn't phase me in the slightest. If we fail to make new low next month then would be more wary but even then probably not concerned about going short this far from the low.
agree. currently there is no reason to push the panic buttons. as a mid term retracement i have 7220, don't know if will be reaached or when. definitely it is bullish above 6950 and we are still in a major down trend and i have not changed my trget of 6500 for the coming months.
As Above, So Below
  • #95,020
  • Jan 28, 2016 6:02am Jan 28, 2016 6:02am
Possible 4h top (short term). No positions currently.
32 traders viewing now