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AUD/USD

  • #94,941
  • Jan 26, 2016 9:49am Jan 26, 2016 9:49am
Nothing to see here at the moment, back to the W open and shouldn't drift too far away until the first key data release of the week.

We are about to enter some high volatility starting in 9 hours with inflation data, followed up by the Fed. Not to mention the Weekly/Monthly close followed closely by the all important RBA. For now:

Inflation
Expecting poor inflation data with results skewed by rapidly falling petrol prices as we saw in the NZD last week. Wouldn't expect to see a knee jerk reaction beyond 692x. Any positive result (not expected) should be capped at 707x. We can play some ping pong between these levels until the Fed.

Fed
Expecting a dovish/slightly dovish Fed with plenty of turmoil since the last meeting in December. Slightly dovish/dovish fed should open 707x with an extension to 717x, regardless of inflation data. A hawkish fed or even neutral (not expected) should have us retesting multi-year lows before the week/month close.

Mid term target remains 0.639x
  • #94,942
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:34am Jan 26, 2016 10:34am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Added a sell trade, total position at sl 0.7010 = be. tp 0.6000 . k
sl = be. Will see if AU proceeds down after a potential double top and would try to catch it if it does.
k
  • #94,943
  • Jan 26, 2016 11:11am Jan 26, 2016 11:11am
Quoting countdown
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 69189 / TP = 68900 / SL = 69557 if this order trigger ; open 2* lot Buy Stop = 69557 / TP = 69745 / SL = 69189 GL
going to delete this order at 20:00(gmt+2)
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #94,944
  • Edited 6:32pm Jan 26, 2016 4:06pm | Edited 6:32pm
Nothing to do for the next +2 hrs

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...........

Tic toc tic toc


Edit: add

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  • #94,945
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:24pm Jan 26, 2016 6:24pm
If it's a good number, I'd say much of it is priced in
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #94,946
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:37pm Jan 26, 2016 6:37pm
Quoting Ken A
Nothing to do for the next +2 hrs {image} ........... Tic toc tic toc Edit: add {image}

..........

+ 50 pips nonetheless

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  • #94,947
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:49pm Jan 26, 2016 6:49pm
Quoting diggo
Inflation Expecting poor inflation data with results skewed by rapidly falling petrol prices as we saw in the NZD last week. Wouldn't expect to see a knee jerk reaction beyond 692x. Any positive result (not expected) should be capped at 707x. We can play some ping pong between these levels until the Fed.
Data in line/mildly better than expectations. Sell orders pending at 7070.
  • #94,948
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:53pm Jan 26, 2016 6:53pm
Quoting forexsaint
AUDUSD a kinda contrarian view when everyone around is shouting for commo's and commo currencies going to 0 Just a view, not betting farm on it (just a tiny room) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post8711729 Lets WnWatch P.S. retrace is anyway coming IMO Bears fatigued. PA clearly shows that
Should congratulate you again - posted before the facts and supported by Trade explorer

Nicely done
  • #94,949
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:03pm Jan 26, 2016 7:03pm
AUDUSD update

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post8713716

- Waiting for Breakout
- Lets see when it will run the bear(mini's) stops around 7050(good accumulation). PA/Momentum above is IMP to watch
- 55pip uptick till now with almost no retrace (esp quick) are both characteristics of a NOT priced-in PA

Lets WnW
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #94,950
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:23pm Jan 26, 2016 7:23pm

there is one thing i like about the trolls: they will never give up.
trash Can A will post these 2 longs forever (but will never tell how much he lost trying to bottom picking and the size of these 2 positions and what happened to his other longs which were underwater).
anyway, who gives a shit.

i am still holding on to opinion that we need a retracement to 696x. i know, it sounds crazy price being at 7040 right now and inches away from breakout. so we are almost 80 pips away from my level and 40 pips away from next level to upside.
saying all that i am bullish above 6950 as mentioned earlier.
trade safe.
As Above, So Below
  • #94,951
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:31pm Jan 26, 2016 7:31pm
opened to shorts @ 0.70144 and 0.70328 sl 0.70512 tp 0.69230
  • #94,952
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:43pm Jan 26, 2016 7:43pm
Quoting tashkent
there is one thing i like about the trolls: they will never give up. trash Can A will post these 2 longs forever (but will never tell how much he lost trying to bottom picking and the size of these 2 positions and what happened to his other longs which were underwater). anyway, who gives a shit. i am still holding on to opinion that we need a retracement to 696x. i know, it sounds crazy price being at 7040 right now and inches away from breakout. so we are almost 80 pips away from my level and 40 pips away from next level to upside. saying...
I generally value what you have to say but wish you and your sparring partner would cease engaging each other. You can both be right in your own timeframes without having to put the other down.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #94,953
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:36pm Jan 26, 2016 8:36pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I generally value what you have to say but wish you and your sparring partner would cease engaging each other. You can both be right in your own timeframes without having to put the other down.
i apologize for this buddy, just ignore anything i have to say about this scammer and what i will say below is not for you, please just skip it
if anybody interested, go ahead and read.
what i am concerned about is that he is doing harm to less experienced traders and helping them to develop bad habits like bottom/top picking without any proper understanding of price action. this is a guaranteed loser's method. in any trending market you can see hundreds of lower lows or higher highs and only with one you can get a luck. he lost so many trades trying to catch usdcad top and that should have cleared his account completely unless he is playing with demo account or pennies. after over thousands of pips upside run he caught a position and has been flooding everywhere with it. now he is back to audusd with the same shit. i know many other red flag members like him doing the same thing with usdcad and jpy pairs and they are all gone now, but not the trash Can.
just want let everybody know about how silly and risky this method is. only go with the trend once it is established and see the right setup, do not blindly go against the strong move. correct chart reading and getting spots right requires very hard work but very profitable. it is not just trying to catch the falling knife, double or triple bottom and then post it in the forums every hour. this is a pure loser psychology, loser's game.
if you are that good, post your analysis, your levels. admit when you are wrong like a man and everybody will acknowledge when you are right.
if news give you 50 pips, you were just lucky, nothing else. just do not act as if you pushed the price 50 pips.
i hope some will give to this some thought, if not, who cares
As Above, So Below
  • #94,954
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:49pm Jan 26, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I generally value what you have to say but wish you and your sparring partner would cease engaging each other. You can both be right in your own timeframes without having to put the other down.
Thanks dab! Tensions are definitely running high between them.

This is a trading forum, the red flags will naturally gain more respect and their words will carry heavier weightage (according to FF ranking). Nonetheless, i hope traders here can share knowledge and different opinions should be taken into consideration with a pinch of salt. I'm not a red flagger but i am definitely living on good profits from trading. It's good that everyone has a different trading style and perspective. Trading being a zero sum 'game' enables us to make money from someone losing money, there is never a time whereby everyone is making money for sure. I don't make money daily and i have no shame in admitting it.

The bottom line is, traders here don't really care about the ranking and what not, as long it makes them money and they gain knowledge from each other over here, that's all that matter. Respect one another and we can make this forum a conducive place for traders of all experience and ranking to learn from each other. Even a top trader has to be continuously learning because market conditions are always changing, agree?
  • #94,955
  • Jan 26, 2016 9:09pm Jan 26, 2016 9:09pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i apologize for this buddy, just ignore anything i have to say about this scammer and what i will say below is not for you, please just skip it if anybody interested, go ahead and read. what i am concerned about is that he is doing harm to less experienced traders and helping them to develop bad habits like bottom/top picking without any proper understanding of price action. this is a guaranteed loser's method. in any trending market you can see hundreds of lower lows or higher highs and only with one you can get a luck. he lost so many...
If you are serious about wanting to help less experienced traders than I believe exposing any bad advice in a respectful manner will help them far more than any name calling. I also hope that any negativity does not affect your own trading judgement.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #94,956
  • Jan 26, 2016 9:10pm Jan 26, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Thanks dab! Tensions are definitely running high between them. This is a trading forum, the red flags will naturally gain more respect and their words will carry heavier weightage (according to FF ranking). Nonetheless, i hope traders here can share knowledge and different opinions should be taken into consideration with a pinch of salt. I'm not a red flagger but i am definitely living on good profits from trading. It's good that everyone has a different trading style and perspective. Trading being a zero sum 'game' enables us to make money...
Agreed
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #94,957
  • Jan 26, 2016 9:28pm Jan 26, 2016 9:28pm
Quoting dab
{quote} If you are serious about wanting to help less experienced traders than I believe exposing any bad advice in a respectful manner will help them far more than any name calling. I also hope that any negativity does not affect your own trading judgement.
i prefer calling people with the right names. anyone who is bothered with my comments is free to disregard my posts, put me in ignore or report to FF administration. or ask trash Can so he can report me to FBI as this psycho once threatened me with (if he has not done so yet). that is my final say and hope i am very clear. let's not return to this again.
wish you happy trading.
As Above, So Below
  • #94,958
  • Jan 26, 2016 9:53pm Jan 26, 2016 9:53pm
now, after comments from peacekeepers, lets discuss trading.
this upside movement before the news was pretty much obvious and some profit taking took place. however, the news took it higher. this news is a kind of catalyst. but when this kind of news is along with the overall trend it pushes the price and holds, when against the overall market sentiment it ends up being a spike. the price action tells us that the bull is right and the intention of the market is only to upside. so this is the good thing to know. we now have no doubt about the direction. only touch of 6950 or below will neutralize the situation.
we reached the pretty high level thanks to news and even it could break to the upside. but this would not be a healthy bullish run. because there are many buy orders pending below and for more strength, market needs to collect these orders. what i am thinking is that we will have very slow zigzag downside movement through which market will keep collecting more orders (range markets also serve for the same purpose). once price reaches specific level or saturated with orders, it will start moving sharp and with confidence towards the planned level. along the way, there will be clueless sellers thinking upside movement is over but their positions will be used only to push the price more up through forcing them to bail out after market starts steady upside move.
so, the level where i see the orders lie is around 696x. i am not sure if price can push lower because of the significant buy orders around that area.
once price breaks the current highs, there are several levels to upside but even the first level can increase one's account significantly with moderate risk.
if this move goes straight to upside without a retrace, than call all what i said a big bull crap. i am fine with that since i get things constantly wrong.
PS. not expecting any volatile movements until FOMC. unless there is something unexpected from the meeting, FOMC also may serve as catalyst to take the price higher, even help to collect the lower buy orders with a quick spike down.
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As Above, So Below
  • #94,959
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:17pm Jan 26, 2016 10:17pm
expressions: but, if, maybe, assuming, time will say, lets say ...: are just excuse for loss.

Fact is that market maker interpret fundamentals, decide PA and that count. Retail trader is capable to follow market maker or not: there is nothing in between.
  • #94,960
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:33pm Jan 26, 2016 10:33pm
Quoting tashkent
now, after comments from peacekeepers, lets discuss trading. this upside movement before the news was pretty much obvious and some profit taking took place. however, the news took it higher. this news is a kind of catalyst. but when this kind of news is along with the overall trend it pushes the price and holds, when against the overall market sentiment it ends up being a spike. the price action tells us that the bull is right and the intention of the market is only to upside. so this is the good thing to {image}
Agree on the points you mentioned, but i personally don't think the retracement will be so deep to the extent of 696x.
.6990- .70 psychological levels will serve as a strong support currently.

Shall await for FOMC to give price a booster. Well, who knows, it might be a non- event after all. Range trading for now.
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