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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #61
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:06pm Jan 25, 2016 8:06pm
Here's a little something I'm watching on the 15minute chart at the moment...it may or may not turn out to be a good trade, but it gives you an idea of my thought process when looking for a trade. First and foremost I look for a good confluence of events to enter a trade: 1) Price action 2) candlestick/chart pattern 3) possible RSI agreement/signal 4) room for trade to move 5) small stop loss 6) support/resistance levels.

On this particular trade to the upside...you'd be looking for about 20-30pips up to the resistance areas near the ema's. And your stop loss would be a few pips under the lows of the reversal candlestick pattern. If price were to stall out just under the ema's for a roughly 2 hours or more, definitely consider taking a smaller profit or move your stop loss to break even at least to protect your account!

Cheers!
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  • #62
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:23pm Jan 25, 2016 8:23pm
Some might be asking about chart patterns and candlestick patterns. If it's new to you, here's a candlestick pattern website that is pretty quick and easy to understand. http://www.candlesticker.com/Default.aspx?lang=en


Here's a chart showing a few examples of what I like to see...these aren't the only types of patterns to trade, just a few examples. Also, even though this is a 15min chart...I prefer to see these types of patterns at candle close on the 1hr chart. But I think they even work on the higher timeframes if you're more of a swing trader or position trader(use at your own discretion).
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  • #63
  • Jan 25, 2016 9:19pm Jan 25, 2016 9:19pm
Great thread and I like the simplicity of this. Looks like retest of 200MA possible. Looking to see if 15M chart will set up a short to downside as trend is down at the moment.
  • #64
  • Jan 26, 2016 5:45am Jan 26, 2016 5:45am
Quoting biDc
Great thread and I like the simplicity of this. Looks like retest of 200MA possible. Looking to see if 15M chart will set up a short to downside as trend is down at the moment.

There was a "semi-short" setup last night I see...Evening Star pattern at the 50ema on the 15min chart that would have given 20-30pips. And then another long setup around .6920-30 at the 1hr chart that's already been good for 30pips. I'll try to get some charts up in the next couple of hours.

For new traders, I definitely recommend patience and waiting for trade setups WITH the trend as you mentioned above. But for the more experienced traders, it is possible to trade both directions...again, you need patience and discipline to wait for the proper setups and risk/reward favorability!
  • #65
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:07am Jan 26, 2016 8:07am
Here's an updated 15minute chart from the one above showing how that long setup would have worked out.
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  • #66
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:08am Jan 26, 2016 8:08am
Here's a more advanced long entry on the 1hr chart that setup overnight early in the London session! Easily good for 30-50pips.
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  • #67
  • Jan 26, 2016 9:46am Jan 26, 2016 9:46am
Something to watch real time...how would you trade this? Would you trade this? Just food for thought!
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  • #68
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:07am Jan 26, 2016 10:07am
Hi,
As a keen AUD trader I like the content of this thread, thanks PA is King.
Looking at some of your charts I like your interpretations. I have some similar, some probably different but thought I'd share my day's activity here, as they include some trades executed at areas you have discussed.

For what they are worth, here are my trades:
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Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #69
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:30am Jan 26, 2016 10:30am
Quoting trader34
Hi, As a keen AUD trader I like the content of this thread, thanks PA is King. Looking at some of your charts I like your interpretations. I have some similar, some probably different but thought I'd share my day's activity here, as they include some trades executed at areas you have discussed. For what they are worth, here are my trades: {image}

Thanks for posting trader34. Nice trade to the long side. Looks like you have a good understanding of price action. You might use some different indicators than me, but at the foundation of your trading is Price Action. Once traders understand that, the rest are just supporting points. Keep up the good work!
  • #70
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:39am Jan 26, 2016 10:39am
Here's an update to the 15min chart I posted above. When trading, always remember to think of both the Pros & Cons of entering a trade. Make sure the odds are in your favor...the higher the better!
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  • #71
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:41am Jan 26, 2016 10:41am
One other thing before I head out for the day. Be careful if you trade tonight, "red news" for Aussie tonight. Also, tomorrow has US Fed interest rate news. Use caution or don't even trade.
  • #72
  • Jan 26, 2016 5:18pm Jan 26, 2016 5:18pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Thanks for posting trader34. Nice trade to the long side. Looks like you have a good understanding of price action. You might use some different indicators than me, but at the foundation of your trading is Price Action. Once traders understand that, the rest are just supporting points. Keep up the good work!

To be honest, that template of indicators contains 3 methods I'm currently testing, and had no real influence on the AUD trades I listed.
I am a big believer in just using naked charts for the type of entries I took there.
I have some"preferred" indicators but I actually try to avoid using them in the traditional way. They are mostly just a reference, sometimes in a mean reversion sense. Invariably my decisions come from the candlestick formations, and the PA leading up to them. My trading turned around when started this approach, so I totally agree with you!

So, I woke up here in Aus to see that my last top entry marked on the screenshot had spent most of the night in DD. It was currently at BE plus a few so have decided to cut the trade and await the CPI in an hour or so.
If something juicy forms I may jump in, but with the FOMC coming now, I tend to stay on the sidelines until afterwards.
Good luck to all!
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #73
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:37pm Jan 26, 2016 7:37pm
Quoting forexchiq
{quote} This definitely looks like a good strategy. Just your last few posts has really been an eye opener for me. From what I can see that your risk return is roughly 2:1 and your success rate is definitely more than 50%. In your experience how much percent return can you expect for the month on average?
I'm no expert (I am profitable overall but had some big losses before the last 6 months where I think my trading has turned) but given PA doesn't track the info you asked about thought I'd give my 2 cents

Below are annualised returns from the last couple of months:
November 10.5%
December 56%
Jan (so far) 31.5%

I did have some better months in Sept & Oct but subsequently realised that my trading sizes were a little big to cater for some of the bigger moves so am still learning to time price action better. Also worth noting that I trade longer time frames than PA does. Happy trading!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #74
  • Jan 26, 2016 11:30pm Jan 26, 2016 11:30pm
Looking at this in the long term, it looks like there is a possible inverse head and shoulder set up. 50 is above 200 right now and appears to be slowly sloping up, so I'm keeping an eye for price action indicating upward movement. Sitting on hands now ahead of the FOMC though.
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  • #75
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:42am Jan 27, 2016 5:42am
Quoting biDc
Looking at this in the long term, it looks like there is a possible inverse head and shoulder set up. 50 is above 200 right now and appears to be slowly sloping up, so I'm keeping an eye for price action indicating upward movement. Sitting on hands now ahead of the FOMC though. {image}
Good call waiting until the FOMC news. But yes, I do agree a possible retrace of the multi-year down trend might be coming. Keep an eye on the charts.
  • #76
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:15am Jan 28, 2016 1:15am
Quoting dab
{quote} I'm no expert (I am profitable overall but had some big losses before the last 6 months where I think my trading has turned) but given PA doesn't track the info you asked about thought I'd give my 2 cents Below are annualised returns from the last couple of months: November 10.5% December 56% Jan (so far) 31.5% I did have some better months in Sept & Oct but subsequently realised that my trading sizes were a little big to cater for some of the bigger moves so am still learning to time price action better. Also worth noting that I trade longer...
Hey thanks Dab. Your input there is much appreciated. Happy trading to you!
  • #77
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:40am Jan 28, 2016 7:40am
Not much going on here guys...the Aussie seems to be a in a pretty strong up movement right now. The 1hr and 4hr charts both show Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Price has been bullish pretty much 8 out of the last 10 days it has gone up 260pips since last weeks triple bottom around .6830. Both the 50 and 200 ema's are trending up on the 1hr chart and price is staying above the 50ema. Safest trade would be to buy dips at this point until the up trend is broken.

Cheers!
  • #78
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:15am Jan 28, 2016 8:15am
Another day, another 100+ pip rally. Looks like this makes 9 out of the last 11 days for Aussie to be Bullish. While there will always be opportunities to trade either way, if for some reason you take a short setup trade, think small profits...not big. Happy Trading!
  • #79
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:28am Jan 28, 2016 8:28am
With you on that!
Took one small bite earlier, and got a little lucky with my 20 pip PT.
Just taken another hoping for the same.
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Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #80
  • Jan 28, 2016 9:33am Jan 28, 2016 9:33am
Struggled a bit initially, but got there/
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Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
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