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  • #41
  • Jan 21, 2016 5:49am Jan 21, 2016 5:49am
Price bounced up pretty good from .6875 this time. Looks like the range is narrowing and getting choppy. I'll probably be sitting out for a bit now until things clear up.
  • #42
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:50am Jan 21, 2016 7:50am
Unless something really good setups up, I think I'll call it a week for trading. Below is a chart of the trades I took this week.

1) We started the week with a gap down, followed by a nearly 100pip run up to the 50ema where price on the 1hr chart formed Pinbars&Railroad tracks right at the 50ema. It was also a retest of the Broken support level from last Thursday around .6930 area. So I took a short there. Ended up with profit.

2) Second trade was at the second yellow circle...thought price had retraced to retest the lows from last Friday and started stalling out, so I tried a long...however, a few hours later China news came out and price dropped and I took a small loss.

3) Third yellow circle was 1-2hrs after China data and price formed RailRoad tracks above last Friday's lows, pretty much a double bottom. So I tried another long. Ended with a profit.

4) After a 100+ pip rally, price met Aussie's normal ADR and I figured it was due for a pullback(remember, I only target 30-50pips a trade...so a 30pip pullback after a 100pip rally is reasonable odds). And then the 1hr chart gave another nice set of RailRoad Tracks after nearly going straight up. Ended with a profit.

5) Price sold off over 100pips and again retested last Friday's Lows forming a Triple Bottom at the .6830 level. Also got another pair of RailRoad tracks. So I went long here. Combination of Factors: A) ADR met B) Triple Bottom C) RailRoad Tracks D) Odds of a retrace likely after oversold conditions = Ended with Profit again.

6) Last yellow circle was basically the completion of the retrace of the prior day's selloff. Price rallied up 100pips(ADR) to the 1hr 200ema this time, formed a Pinbar that closed below the 200ema and price was slightly overbought. The fact that price went just a few pips above Tuesday's High but closed right back down suggested to me that there were a lot of sellers still around that .6950 area. So I took the short and Ended with another profit.


So that's it folks...that's basically how I trade each and every week! I look for support/resistance areas. I Look for candle stick/chart patterns to form. I look for ADR's to be filled. Most of all, you have to be PATIENT and DISCIPLINED to wait for the setups and not be greedy and take what the market gives you. If it goes against you, be disciplined enough to keep your losses small and under control.

This week we where in a range for the most part. But the same ideas work in a trend too, it's just better if you trade WITH the trend and not against it!

Have a good weekend everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #43
  • Jan 21, 2016 11:36am Jan 21, 2016 11:36am
Quoting tashkent
my short target still remain 7000. not sure if it is going to touch 6830 soon. lets see what will happen
this must be pretty much it for today. back to range. 7000 hit before 6830. now slowly can move towards 6920
As Above, So Below
  • #44
  • Jan 21, 2016 5:55pm Jan 21, 2016 5:55pm
well done mate , on Monday they was a gap I see you didn't trade it , is a gap not part of your trading plan , happy new year to you ,



Quoting PA is King
Unless something really good setups up, I think I'll call it a week for trading. Below is a chart of the trades I took this week. 1) We started the week with a gap down, followed by a nearly 100pip run up to the 50ema where price on the 1hr chart formed Pinbars&Railroad tracks right at the 50ema. It was also a retest of the Broken support level from last Thursday around .6930 area. So I took a short there. Ended up with profit. 2) Second trade was at the second yellow circle...thought price had retraced to retest the lows from last Friday and started...
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #45
  • Jan 21, 2016 6:54pm Jan 21, 2016 6:54pm
Quoting Aussi
well done mate , on Monday they was a gap I see you didn't trade it , is a gap not part of your trading plan , happy new year to you , {quote}
Hi Aussi, to answer your question...I rarely trade a Sunday gap. Usually don't trades Sunday's in general.

Right now I'd like to short after the huge run up in price...but after 4 straight bullish daily candles, I don't want to be on the wrong side of a trade...I can see price possibly going up to .7080-7100 tonight/tomorrow. So I'll just call it a week.

Have a good weekend all!

P.s. Any feed back on my first week of posts? Is this thread useful or pointless so far?
  • #46
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:10pm Jan 21, 2016 7:10pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Hi Aussi, to answer your question...I rarely trade a Sunday gap. Usually don't trades Sunday's in general. Right now I'd like to short after the huge run up in price...but after 4 straight bullish daily candles, I don't want to be on the wrong side of a trade...I can see price possibly going up to .7080-7100 tonight/tomorrow. So I'll just call it a week. Have a good weekend all! P.s. Any feed back on my first week of posts? Is this thread useful or pointless so far?

your thread is just great mate keep it going , more traders will come on in time I am a fan of this thread thank you for reply I now see why you don't play the gap , here at 8am mondays Brisbane time I just love the open some times I get it some times I don't on monthly chart it had 3 green candles then a retrace red candle which went to a new low I'm just waiting now on the aud to see where it goes my zar and try fell nicely for me keeping me fed for a while
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #47
  • Jan 21, 2016 10:36pm Jan 21, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Hi Aussi, to answer your question...I rarely trade a Sunday gap. Usually don't trades Sunday's in general. Right now I'd like to short after the huge run up in price...but after 4 straight bullish daily candles, I don't want to be on the wrong side of a trade...I can see price possibly going up to .7080-7100 tonight/tomorrow. So I'll just call it a week. Have a good weekend all! P.s. Any feed back on my first week of posts? Is this thread useful or pointless so far?
Hello PA, Your insight about aud is great and this thread surely v usefull.
  • #48
  • Jan 21, 2016 10:38pm Jan 21, 2016 10:38pm
absolutely useful PA please keep it coming my opinion hasn't changed, nice to to see Aussi on here too
  • #49
  • Jan 22, 2016 3:32am Jan 22, 2016 3:32am
Thanks for the feed back, see you next week!
  • #50
  • Jan 22, 2016 3:37am Jan 22, 2016 3:37am
Quoting buster48
absolutely useful PA please keep it coming my opinion hasn't changed, nice to to see Aussi on here too
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #51
  • Jan 22, 2016 5:23am Jan 22, 2016 5:23am
from a 4hr to daily chart perspective it's higher probability that price will go down from here so I closed my last long at 7027 and opened small shorts at 7005 and 7031. Will back those positions in at least as far as 74c.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52
  • Jan 22, 2016 9:10pm Jan 22, 2016 9:10pm
PAs post number 42 defiantly worth a study I think.
  • #53
  • Jan 22, 2016 10:02pm Jan 22, 2016 10:02pm
Quoting buster48
PAs post number 42 defiantly worth a study I think.
That's beyond the doubt. But if PA can afford the time to make it daily or at the juncture when trading opportunity appears would even be better.
  • #54
  • Jan 23, 2016 2:31am Jan 23, 2016 2:31am
Quoting PA is King
Unless something really good setups up, I think I'll call it a week for trading. Below is a chart of the trades I took this week. 1) We started the week with a gap down, followed by a nearly 100pip run up to the 50ema where price on the 1hr chart formed Pinbars&Railroad tracks right at the 50ema. It was also a retest of the Broken support level from last Thursday around .6930 area. So I took a short there. Ended up with profit. 2) Second trade was at the second yellow circle...thought price had retraced to retest the lows from last Friday and started...
This definitely looks like a good strategy. Just your last few posts has really been an eye opener for me. From what I can see that your risk return is roughly 2:1 and your success rate is definitely more than 50%. In your experience how much percent return can you expect for the month on average?
  • #55
  • Edited 12:08pm Jan 23, 2016 11:27am | Edited 12:08pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aususd.PNG Size: 21 KB


This is my first ever post with a pic attachment so I'm experimenting a bit to find what works. Wanted to be useful and contribute my 2 cents as well rather than merely being a taker. I am primarily a PA/Confluence trader, on a live account, for years now. Trading is all I do for a living. I use Supply and Demand, Support & Resistance, and Fibs as my primary tools. Looking for confluence levels. The MA lines on the above chart are a visual reference only. I do not actually use them for making a decision to trade as they're typically late/early and often wrong.

On D1, Price pierced the 38 Fib and then closed below both the 38 and it's open price. Also notice that the 38 fib aligns with a previous (recent) market pause creating a point of extra resistance. While anything can happen, my own bias is now continued bearish and I'm looking to the lower time frames for confirmation. Price could also attempt a spike to the 50% to 61 Fib zone (which happens to align with a S&R level) before negative continuation so my caution flags are on... as always. As a rule, I close all my trades on Friday, so I'm looking to reopen short.
  • #56
  • Jan 24, 2016 9:03am Jan 24, 2016 9:03am
Quoting forexchiq
{quote} This definitely looks like a good strategy. Just your last few posts has really been an eye opener for me. From what I can see that your risk return is roughly 2:1 and your success rate is definitely more than 50%. In your experience how much percent return can you expect for the month on average?
Hi Forexchiq, very good question. However, I don't keep track of those stats. Some weeks are good, some weeks aren't. If you get 2-3 weeks of not many trades...then the month is pretty low too. But if you get 2-3 good weeks, then it's a good month. Only thing I can say for certain is that I was profitable last year by a decent amount.

PapaMack, thank you for posting. I don't follow fibs too much, but after nearly 5 straight bullish days last week...we could get a bit of a retracement. Just have to wait and see what the markets wants to do.

Cheers!
  • #57
  • Jan 25, 2016 3:40am Jan 25, 2016 3:40am
I understand Thanks for the reply PA is King.
One more question - do you pay attention to the news? Are there any particular news items you stay away from?
  • #58
  • Jan 25, 2016 7:28am Jan 25, 2016 7:28am
Quoting forexchiq
I understand Thanks for the reply PA is King. One more question - do you pay attention to the news? Are there any particular news items you stay away from?

For the most part, I have started not paying attention to the news. The things you want to watch out for are the Major News releases like Non-Farm Payrolls, Interest rate decisions, Job numbers in Australia, etc... Pretty much if it's Red on ForexFactory, use caution and maybe not trade an hour before/after that news. If it's yellow or orange you should be ok most of the time. However, sometimes the Market Makers use the news to spike prices for no real reason. The main thing is if you have a good entry, the news shouldn't be a problem.
  • #59
  • Jan 25, 2016 5:36pm Jan 25, 2016 5:36pm
I hope everyone is doing well. This year I've decided not to try and trade the London session...basically, I'm on East Coast time here in the US and those hours aren't good for me mentally or physically. I'll be trading mostly US and Asian sessions.

While looking over the charts to start out the week...here's what I noticed, for those who are into trading London, I hope you caught the Short trade setup on Aussie. I've attached a chart for detail, but basically we had a retest of Friday's highs. If you recall that I mentioned over the weekend that I was expecting some type of retrace due to the nearly 5 bullish days last week on Aussie. Looks like today was the day! Easy 30-50pip target met if you had traded Price action. The divergence on RSI vs Price on Friday is what tipped me off to a retrace coming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #60
  • Jan 25, 2016 5:40pm Jan 25, 2016 5:40pm
I'm currently looking to see if price is going to continue down or retrace back up. I've attached another chart with a support/resistance line that goes back a couple weeks. You can see how the .6950 area has provided both support and resistance levels. Now I'm just waiting to see if price forms any type of pattern for longs. On the other hand, it may just spike up and retest the 50 and/or 200 ma's and form some type of candlestick pattern for short. Too early to tell at this point...but with RSI being near oversold conditions I due expect it to move back up some. Happy Trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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