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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #15,461
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:39am Jan 26, 2016 7:39am
Win on USDCAD
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  • #15,462
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:52am Jan 26, 2016 7:52am
Quoting hovedguy
Could somebody point out what was wrong with 1st PRZ zone as per Cypher pattern? Its EU 233 tick chart FYI - I am still learning, please bear me !! {image}
Hey Man,

This is the chart I will make the video that I told you I was going to make. It has the elements I want to cover be a little patient with me. I will get it done.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,463
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:03am Jan 26, 2016 8:03am
Quoting hovedguy
Win on USDCAD {image}
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,464
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:06am Jan 26, 2016 8:06am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hey Man, This is the chart I will make the video that I told you I was going to make. It has the elements I want to cover be a little patient with me. I will get it done.

  • #15,465
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:09am Jan 26, 2016 8:09am
Thanks Mr. Pip! I love this thread! :-)
  • #15,466
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:17am Jan 26, 2016 8:17am
Quoting lithium1
Thanks Mr. Pip! I love this thread! :-)
Glad to hear that. I'm going to get ready for my session that starts in about 15 min. Ask questions and I will be back to answer after.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,467
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:28am Jan 26, 2016 8:28am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Were you able to see the thought process?
absolutely,, although i would've personally waited till price gets to the support zone because that was my expectation
  • #15,468
  • Jan 26, 2016 5:27pm Jan 26, 2016 5:27pm
Wow, I'm surprised to find no comments or questions. I am rendering the video as we speak and that will take some time then I will upload it. It should be up soon and I will post it to the thread. I also wanted to show you today's expectations and how they stand up to the market. I could have been more pick and had tons more but I work off of the clear swings so that I don't go crazy. They came in at 91% Amazing.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,469
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:15pm Jan 26, 2016 6:15pm
Hey Traders and Damian,
Its been awhile. Ive been actively trading again since the 1st of the year. Thought I would post a chart or 2 showing some trades Ive taken. Hopefully it helps a few ppl and helps me as well.
Basically Im trading pullbacks in a trend. Im using all that I learned from Damian (Thank you Damian!!) to determine order flow and expectations so that Im usually on the right side of PA (price action).
I agree that expectations play out more often than not. If your trade is in line with expectations you will be successful over 70% of the time. Its as simple as that.
Trades taken today on the dow futures, (YM)
1,2 and 4 are trades taken on pullbacks. 1) -13, 2) +25, 4) +15 ticks. The best trade was #4 had I managed it better. There were several more opportunities had I continued trading.
Trade 3 is a trade I missed while entering my first two trades into my trade log. Lesson learned dont enter trades till after done trading. LOL
Yes I agree there were many more expections on todays chart, it just depends how micro you want to get. That just shows how many opportunities one had to take tradessuccessful trades that is.
PS: Mr. PIP Im looking forward to your video
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Barry
  • #15,470
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:18pm Jan 26, 2016 6:18pm
Okay Traders,

Here is the video on the Cypher that failed. As always please give feedback to let me know what needs to be addressed. Look forward to the feedback and talk to you tomorrow.

https://youtu.be/WOC8CgXE0Lo
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,471
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:25pm Jan 26, 2016 6:25pm
Quoting Bary
Hey Traders and Damian, Its been awhile. Ive been actively trading again since the 1st of the year. Thought I would post a chart or 2 showing some trades Ive taken. Hopefully it helps a few ppl and helps me as well. Basically Im trading pullbacks in a trend. Im using all that I learned from Damian (Thank you Damian!!) to determine order flow and expectations so that Im usually on the right side of PA (price action). I agree that expectations play out more often than not. If your trade is in line with expectations you will be successful over 70%...
Damn good to see you in here again Barry and good trading!!! Keep up the good work!!! Swimming with the current = stress free trading.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,472
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:31pm Jan 26, 2016 6:31pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Wow, I'm surprised to find no comments or questions. I am rendering the video as we speak and that will take some time then I will upload it. It should be up soon and I will post it to the thread. I also wanted to show you today's expectations and how they stand up to the market. I could have been more pick and had tons more but I work off of the clear swings so that I don't go crazy. They came in at 91% Amazing. {image}
Hi Mr Pip
Old admirer of yours.To me as you often mentioned before is determining what are the market conditions.
Jan 2016 started with panic sell off in stocks,Chinese fears,Feds raised IR and Dollar surging.When we have unique aspects in the market coming in full force no harmonics stands a chance or anything technical.
There is no way anyone could of predicted UC going 146 or EC 161!! or oil testing below 28.
I think market is settling a little where normal harmonics become more evident.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,473
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:37pm Jan 26, 2016 6:37pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Mr Pip Old admirer of yours.To me as you often mentioned before is determining what are the market conditions. Jan 2016 started with panic sell off in stocks,Chinese fears,Feds raised IR and Dollar surging.When we have unique aspects in the market coming in full force no harmonics stands a chance or anything technical. There is no way anyone could of predicted UC going 146 or EC 161!! or oil testing below 28. I think market is settling a little where normal harmonics become more evident. Regards
Perhaps depending on what you mean by Harmonics.

For me personally...Account is up 8% this month trading Bats and Cyphers.
  • #15,474
  • Jan 26, 2016 6:50pm Jan 26, 2016 6:50pm
Quoting 1qaz2345
{quote} Perhaps depending on what you mean by Harmonics. For me personally...Account is up 8% this month trading Bats and Cyphers.
That's great.My point was just overall understanding the beast we are trading.There are times when things just go extreme.
regards
Having said above I am anticipating oil returning to 38-40 and UC 1.32-35 next few months.Have large positions for longer TF
Tomorrow Feds will be very Dovish because of bla Data recently and USD which got too strong too quickly.This does not fit with gradual IR hikes.USD must come down so raising future IR will become doable.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15,475
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:17pm Jan 26, 2016 7:17pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Keep at it sometime we lose our way but the next expectation should realign us. Thanks it's been a while since I had to hand out some discipline.
Looks like I needed it, made 2 trades (1 last night and one today) and both were for +20 pips each!! Probably my best day of the year. So what did I do differently??

I sat at night and made my expectations, mainly based on S/R zones and what price could do.

Started to look at price as it dropped from the days highs. About 5-10 mins before price hit the RN and a strong S/R area I was reading the chart and noted this area (1). The high from the day created a NSH from the 19th so my overall expectation was for price to go up, not by much but up all the same.

My next expectation was for price to correct at area 2, then if price continued down then could hit the RN of 1.4200 (area 3), which had some S/R, although not as much as area 1.

I then noted the higher area, as my expectation was for price to go up I expected a test of this area at some point.

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I am limited to trading as I get some time at night but also work in the day so am on and off the charts, which makes it difficult. I have found that I have an expectation, then miss it and try to jump on a trade (chasing price) which was leading to losses. Now I am making these areas, reviewing them in the day and then only trading them at times I am able to and only if I get to my chart when price is reacting as expected.

Then my actual trades.

Trade 1 was an overnight trade, I know I cannot manage them but I only trade them when I have a strong expectation price will get to where I needed it. Price reacted as expected so I then expected a 50 pip(ish) move, so I traded after confirmation with a TP well below my expectation.

Then trade 2 was after bulls were entering the market hard. I could have got in a lot earlier but I was at my charts at the wrong times so I waited it out. Price stalled at an area I expected so I was looking for price to tell me it was going up, when it did I pounced. Again as I was busy so could not manage the trade I set the TP to 20 (a favorite number of mine!!). At the time I thought I should be going for 30-35 really but didn't want the risk.

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Put on some arrows of my best guess as to tomorrows action but I will wait for price to tell me what it wants to do before doing anything. Also no night trade, think the bulls are tired after that rally!!
  • #15,476
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:18pm Jan 26, 2016 7:18pm
bullish pattern completing soon?
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  • #15,477
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:22pm Jan 26, 2016 7:22pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Mr Pip Old admirer of yours.To me as you often mentioned before is determining what are the market conditions. Jan 2016 started with panic sell off in stocks,Chinese fears,Feds raised IR and Dollar surging.When we have unique aspects in the market coming in full force no harmonics stands a chance or anything technical. There is no way anyone could of predicted UC going 146 or EC 161!! or oil testing below 28. I think market is settling a little where normal harmonics become more evident. Regards
Hello my friend good to see you here. The markets can get ballistic every now and then and everything may seem to fail. But there is still order to them and we must always try to stay ahead of price there is a general order that even price respect. That order is order flow. Stay well don't become a stranger and I wish you the best in your trading.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,478
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:27pm Jan 26, 2016 7:27pm
Quoting PipTrendz
{quote} Looks like I needed it, made 2 trades (1 last night and one today) and both were for +20 pips each!! Probably my best day of the year. So what did I do differently?? I sat at night and made my expectations, mainly based on S/R zones and what price could do. Started to look at price as it dropped from the days highs. About 5-10 mins before price hit the RN and a strong S/R area I was reading the chart and noted this area (1). The high from the day created a NSH from the 19th so my overall expectation was for price to go up, not by much but...
Nic work
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,479
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:29pm Jan 26, 2016 7:29pm
Quoting danielwang
bullish pattern completing soon? {image}
You tell me. Do I ne work. Tell me what pattern you think you have there and what is your expectations. Build your case.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,480
  • Jan 26, 2016 10:18pm Jan 26, 2016 10:18pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Okay Traders, Here is the video on the Cypher that failed. As always please give feedback to let me know what needs to be addressed. Look forward to the feedback and talk to you tomorrow. https://youtu.be/WOC8CgXE0Lo
Awesome video. the intro looked very professional. had to stop it to go get some popcorn. great job

- good food for thought about relying on expectations rather then pattern completion and what to look for.

I've been practicing with increasing the accuracy of my expectation in order flow. I have a question on the subject of order flow. Its kind of complex and I'm not sure how to phrase the question so i'll give it a shot. Sorry if I sound . ( My questions in the post... I think the answer is practice but maybe you have some guidelines or something)

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Doc3.pdf   344 KB | 383 downloads


Sorry for the PDF. had to use your example for editing
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