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  • #138,821
  • Jan 22, 2016 7:31am Jan 22, 2016 7:31am
aussie and yen have a rising edge atm so could be a sharp down move for bottom building.... for euro i would like a bounce up to 1,0832 to reenter sell position.

dont know if its aligned with fundamental on aussie and yen pairs but technical could be ok.
  • #138,822
  • Jan 22, 2016 7:48am Jan 22, 2016 7:48am
Quoting sisse
--> Strong European session, OIL flying on steroids with very decent profit taking as suspected since yesterday. All set for NY, and US equities looks for a very decent leg (1950.xx for ref in S&P) with FED doing nothing next week. --> Euro easily held 1.086x triggering the timid continuation leg for the news flow but given the size and scope of the moves that are happening across the board, EURO still look pretty much subdue and in very choppy conditions. All eyes on 1.086x for the W close but for now not much to do till NY.... {quote} Ufff .......
Yes it does sisse. An excellent explanation. Thank you.
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,823
  • Edited 2:57pm Jan 22, 2016 9:39am | Edited 2:57pm
UJ may have some solid R at 118.8x. 4hr chart level. I know gator uses this pair (UJ) as a gauge for EU/USD. Just a level that could reverse UJ and support EU Long Short term but its Friday and (ES adn DAX)Equities have rallied along with Oil the past couple of days.

And, EU is holding/building support at my FLIP area at .0806. Just watching as .0860 is key again as that's the better FLIP per sisse.

Yesterday we put in a LOW at .0777 and today so far, its .0793. High after the news was .0900 and looking at this could put EU at .9017/20 for today's high to support gator's number if we are to go this direction today.

EDIT: (11:30am -USA East time)
Interesting that .0806 level I mentioned earlier in my post has held today and even on London's close. I wish I could offer more info on why but all I know is it is a level I found on MONTHLY chart that seems to offer support more times than not. Will be interested to see if it shows a support again for the remainder of NY session.

R for UJ is at 118.7X and it is holding at the moment.
  • #138,824
  • Jan 22, 2016 11:00am Jan 22, 2016 11:00am
...Europe going home for the weekend and markets look ready to go to bed and close the week early. After a +5% rallies in Equities and OIL soft profit taking expected across the board for the US closing session.

Euro looks very tired with very choppy action all week long...micro 1.082x holding the European close and we will have set the low of day and week without completing the news flow target....

Tracking last chance for some final juice in US Equities but day seem pretty much over in the next hour or so ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,825
  • Jan 22, 2016 12:40pm Jan 22, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting sisse

  1. A major QE or a super dovish ECB will just tigger a soft zigzag to 1.094x/7x [check...strictly TAwise failed by handful of tikcs] until OIL clears up [check] before leaving 1.086x [check / in play for the major leg] naked for a break down on inertia to 1.073x [failure] till the FED/monthly close and unlocking the mid term swing ....

...

...and that was pretty much it in my books for the Euro. Equities running out of steam after a powerful rally and are set to enter in chop zone until the FED. Euro failed to complete the news flow to 1.073x and is pointless to hold anything over the weekend in both with such a poor technical setup and entries.

More importantly we are set to lose 1.086x in the Euro which could trigger imminent mid term break down alerts for the FED/M roll combo play.

For now just flat across the board with ALL EYES on Euro for the roll....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,826
  • Jan 22, 2016 3:26pm Jan 22, 2016 3:26pm
....and we are going to roll loosing 1.086x officially triggering Early Break down alerts for the mid term leg. Euro holding the FED/Monthly combo will make me a perms-bear in the pair and it will carry the DXY for a break up, failure will leave us stuck in range until March....

--> For those into statistics, 5th smaller monthly range in the History of the Euro (still a week to go) but the tricky part is all those 5th compression candles, triggered all major mid term large trend waves on the break out of the range ...something to check for reference over the weekend ....

--> For those into 'roll playing', cheap tickets available on the close today for the dovish short term FED play 1.086x -> 1.094x -> 1.114x....so choose your poison time on the failure to take the 1.08xx if you are up for outsmarting the FED flow ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,827
  • Jan 22, 2016 4:42pm Jan 22, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting sisse
....and we are going to roll loosing 1.086x officially triggering Early Break down alerts for the mid term leg. Euro holding the FED/Monthly combo will make me a perms-bear in the pair and it will carry the DXY for a break up, failure will leave us stuck in range until March.... --> For those into statistics, 5th smaller monthly range in the History of the Euro (still a week to go) .... For those into 'roll playing', cheap tickets available on the close today for the dovish short term FED play 1.086x -> 1.094x -> 1.114x....so choose your poison time on the failure to take the 1.08xx if you are up for outsmarting the FED flow ....
I would like to take that amid china fears and dovish fed , for the sake of mapping and timing , it would be perfect until mars ECB commitment !!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #138,828
  • Jan 22, 2016 5:00pm Jan 22, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting sisse
....and we are going to roll loosing 1.086x officially triggering Early Break down alerts for the mid term leg. Euro holding the FED/Monthly combo will make me a perms-bear in the pair and it will carry the DXY for a break up, failure will leave us stuck in range until March.... --> For those into statistics, 5th smaller monthly range in the History of the Euro (still a week to go) but the tricky part is all those 5th compression candles, triggered all major mid term large trend waves on the break out of the range ...something to check for reference...
Hello sisse:

Can you explain what you mean by roll ?
For example you mentioned in other posts the W roll and daily roll. Does that mean the weekly range and the daily range respectively ?

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,829
  • Jan 22, 2016 5:56pm Jan 22, 2016 5:56pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello sisse: Can you explain what you mean by roll ? For example you mentioned in other posts the W roll and daily roll. Does that mean the weekly range and the daily range respectively ? Borg
Weekly and daily roll refer to the closing price for the week/day. Of course today , fri , was the weekly/daily combo which was 1.0796 with my broker .

Hope this helps .

Dennis
Peace
  • #138,830
  • Jan 23, 2016 4:49am Jan 23, 2016 4:49am
Quoting build11
{quote} Weekly and daily roll refer to the closing price for the week/day. Of course today , fri , was the weekly/daily combo which was 1.0796 with my broker . Hope this helps . Dennis
Yes it helps a lot. Thank You build11

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,831
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:15am Jan 23, 2016 5:15am
Quoting sisse
....and we are going to roll loosing 1.086x officially triggering Early Break down alerts for the mid term leg. Euro holding the FED/Monthly combo will make me a perms-bear in the pair and it will carry the DXY for a break up, failure will leave us stuck in range until March.... --> For those into statistics, 5th smaller monthly range in the History of the Euro (still a week to go) but the tricky part is all those 5th compression candles, triggered all major mid term large trend waves on the break out of the range ...something to check for reference...

Hello sisse:

In your statement
"Euro holding the FED/Monthly combo will make me a perms-bear in the pair and it will carry the DXY for a break up"

What exactly does "it will carry the DXY for a break up" mean ?

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,832
  • Edited 7:30pm Jan 24, 2016 4:35pm | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting sisse
....and we are going to roll loosing 1.086x officially triggering Early Break down alerts for the mid term leg. Euro holding the FED/Monthly combo will make me a perms-bear in the pair and it will carry the DXY for a break up, failure will leave us stuck in range until March.... --> For those into statistics, 5th smaller monthly range in the History of the Euro (still a week to go) but the tricky part is all those 5th compression candles, triggered all major mid term large trend waves on the break out of the range ...something to check for...
Hello Sisse,

my Q: I know we did not manage to finish the ECB news flow 1,073 but on the other hand we lost 1.086 on W - early break down alerts for mid term - but we also took the 1,08xx (short term important level?) - so what do u expect pre-FED - I know u suggested "poison time" for dovish FED (if we dont take 1,08xx but we did) now for me it seems natural to get zigzag from here to 1,073 (can it still be considered news flow or do they get killed by weekend?). As the chart shows it seems as a perfect place for FED to decide - whether we get a short term swing up (in this never-ending chop) or we finish the first part of the mid term "leg to parity" as suggested by my chart.

Thank you!
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  • #138,833
  • Jan 25, 2016 2:09am Jan 25, 2016 2:09am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hello Sisse, my Q: I know we did not manage to finish the ECB news flow 1,073 but on the other hand we lost 1.086 on W - early break down alerts for mid term - but we also took the 1,08xx (short term important level?) - so what do u expect pre-FED - I know u suggested "poison time" for dovish FED (if we dont take 1,08xx but we did) now for me it seems natural to get zigzag from here to 1,073 (can it still be considered news flow or do they get killed by weekend?). As the chart shows it seems as a perfect place for FED to decide -...
Map is very clear now after las week.

On the short term, ECB simple flow is still in play, the reason i cleared is because i had a smaller and very late entry (1.082x) for the ECB play and the r:r for holding over the weekend was very poor ... Tracking if Europe can push 1.084x/6x...

For the mid term, things are a lot clearer after ECB, FED play is clean sweep to the lows of 2015 or all pushed a bit longer to March in a zigzag leaving us stuck in the range with a bounce to the highs of the range on equities jumping high before the QE / FED March rates combo....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,834
  • Jan 25, 2016 4:02am Jan 25, 2016 4:02am
I know I'm paranoid, but I don't like clean maps and predictable moves. Most of the time they are just the tool of the illusionist, a tool to distract your attention. You watch the left hand, while the trick happens with the right one. Market collapse and crash comes when you think everything is in order. Could be wrong, I'm curious to see what happens next.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,835
  • Jan 25, 2016 6:51am Jan 25, 2016 6:51am
Quoting hathor
I know I'm paranoid, ....You watch the left hand, while the trick happens with the right one. Market collapse and crash comes when you think everything is in order. Could be wrong, I'm curious to see what happens next.
...maybe you need to see markets through a different glass....

-------- -----------


... expecting a simple US session and we are pretty much set for soft technical continuation moves across the board till Wed with a last pit stop (expecting an inline/uneventful numbers) with US consumer confidence before the FED / M roll combo settle the board till March...

Not much to do for now so same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,836
  • Jan 25, 2016 7:09am Jan 25, 2016 7:09am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...maybe you need to see markets through a different glass.... -------- ----------- ... expecting a simple US session and we are pretty much set for soft technical continuation moves across the board till Wed with a last pit stop (expecting an inline/uneventful numbers) with US consumer confidence before the FED / M roll combo settle the board till March... Not much to do for now so same levels, same trades, same all ... sisse
What happened to your euro sentiment ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,837
  • Jan 25, 2016 7:17am Jan 25, 2016 7:17am
hey Guys,

I am not sure if we will get a clear direction this week due to earnings season and uncertenty from china.
  • #138,838
  • Jan 25, 2016 7:28am Jan 25, 2016 7:28am
Hey sisse..... with fundamental news coming out later this week for Kiwi and Yen..

Do you think Japan will miss inflation targets and start quantitative easing? Do you think they will cut rates in New Zealand? If so, could this be potential for a double whammy of yen strength and kiwi weakness for a trend trade?
  • #138,839
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:19am Jan 25, 2016 8:19am
Quoting roobii
Hey sisse..... with fundamental news coming out later this week for Kiwi and Yen.. Do you think Japan will miss inflation targets and start quantitative easing? Do you think they will cut rates in New Zealand? If so, could this be potential for a double whammy of yen strength and kiwi weakness for a trend trade?
BOJ was pretty vocal last week, and NZ is struggling to hold for much longer ... it looks set for a double whammy as you said and losing a few handles rather quickly. Interesting pair given the FA in play .... Nicely spotted, you may have a gem in there ...GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,840
  • Jan 25, 2016 9:59am Jan 25, 2016 9:59am
thanx much appreciated on your feedback... trying to find retracements to be way ahead of the news as we speak!! fingers crossed ....

Quoting sisse
{quote} BOJ was pretty vocal last week, and NZ is struggling to hold for much longer ... it looks set for a double whammy as you said and losing a few handles rather quickly. Interesting pair given the FA in play .... Nicely spotted, you may have a gem in there ...GL sisse
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