The Really Useless Thread | Page 6937 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,721
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:26pm Jan 19, 2016 3:26pm
...equities barely held (ES 1871.xx for ref) but held at the end but in one of the most dangerous TA formations at least in my books. A super wide Outside candle inside of a wide Inside candle .... that seldom happen and signal one and only one thing: tightened your seat belts because we are going to have some very wide volatility ...

My 2 cents for those newcomers trading or planning to trade Equities....is time stay aside if you don't know exactly what you are doing as we are going for major 'whipsaws' as its common when major hands clash in opposite directions in key long/mid term levels.......

On the rest, Oil no surprises grinding the lows and trading air until the final gasp finally comes while Euro has pretty much traced the map crystal clear for the ECB. From the way it looks it will pretty much set the tone for the rest of Q1 ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,722
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:44pm Jan 19, 2016 3:44pm
sisse i am surprised how aussie and kiwi "held" so far...i was expecting a massacre on the antipodeans and loonie (due to oil)
  • #138,723
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:57pm Jan 19, 2016 3:57pm
Quoting KGP
sisse i am surprised how aussie and kiwi "held" so far...i was expecting a massacre on the antipodeans and loonie (due to oil)
BOC mate ...that is major mover and shaker tomorrow with Rates in play....AUD (especially) and NZD just simple healthy profit taking before the end line and are just trading air.

Nobody will stand in the middle till commodities and World Equities find foot ...no brainer trades across all FX board (except Euro that has been sleeping caught between the major flows) but we are reaching the end of the easy ride ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,724
  • Jan 19, 2016 5:37pm Jan 19, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} BOC mate ...that is major mover and shaker tomorrow with Rates in play....AUD (especially) and NZD just simple healthy profit taking before the end line and are just trading air. Nobody will stand in the middle till commodities and World Equities find foot ...no brainer trades across all FX board (except Euro that has been sleeping caught between the major flows) but we are reaching the end of the easy ride ... sisse
seems the next "easy ride" will be GBP at least until the nonsense "sheep PR" referendum

GBP will be the EUR of 2014-middle 2015




Quoting sisse
{quote} BOC mate ...that is major mover and shaker tomorrow with Rates in play....AUD (especially) and NZD just simple healthy profit taking before the end line and are just trading air.
it was the end of oil contracts today and i thought it was going to be easy ride as each one is affected due to the "commodity status"... and didnt want to mess around with eurusd (too much china, super mario and ECB on the nearby horizon)....although i should have done with cable...pitty
  • #138,725
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:17pm Jan 19, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} BOC mate ...that is major mover and shaker tomorrow with Rates in play....AUD (especially) and NZD just simple healthy profit taking before the end line and are just trading air. Nobody will stand in the middle till commodities and World Equities find foot ...no brainer trades across all FX board (except Euro that has been sleeping caught between the major flows) but we are reaching the end of the easy ride ... sisse
I always see that phrase, care to explain what do you mean by trading air?
  • #138,726
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:45pm Jan 19, 2016 6:45pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} I always see that phrase, care to explain what do you mean by trading air?
IMO it means there are no significant S/R levels ,if existant at all, in certain area or that the price has not/never been trading around that area for a very long time
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #138,727
  • Jan 20, 2016 1:36am Jan 20, 2016 1:36am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Otherwise, the gloomier risk off play in A/U already in full swing with a massive level in play too 0.6970, indirectly as of now, and equities still poised to keep sweeping the lows. I'm sure tomorrow will be a lot more interesting too.
We faded the bulls sitting on the level (maybe for the last time in a long while if risk gets as bad as I'm increasingly beginning to suspect.) We are in need of some (alot.) of good news to save the day on that front.

Looking ahead, still have the important October low then the 2015 low on DAX to contend with so let's see how that goes. If they hold it puts paid to the (follow-through of.) the more probable plays at this stage on the Euro- buying at around 1.092
  • #138,728
  • Jan 20, 2016 2:47am Jan 20, 2016 2:47am
Quoting sisse
{quote} BOC mate ...that is major mover and shaker tomorrow with Rates in play...no brainer trades across all FX board (except Euro that has been sleeping caught between the major flows) but we are reaching the end of the easy ride ...Euro still highly (uniquely) correlated to the rest of the board back to 1.086x one more quick time in the opening range. A tick above to the 1.09xx handle is enough to start the week...

Expecting lots of action this week but for now same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse...
What do you expect from eu pair .... very bad decision taken by me at the low to sell after 2 years .... North or South buddy...?
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,729
  • Jan 20, 2016 2:59am Jan 20, 2016 2:59am
Bunds @ 161.10 turning to a disaster added some shorts @ 161 averaging up to 160.30 and moved stop to 162 for the lot.
Same moves at US-Treasury 10y
Preparing for defeat
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,730
  • Jan 20, 2016 3:18am Jan 20, 2016 3:18am
Quoting sisse
....Oil grinding down to new lows on inertia, equities off and Euro one more time failing to break 1.086x [check] and ready, for prolly the last time at these levels, to a test 1.097x [check] with the extension 1.11xx handle [in play] (1.108x key level in play).
Quoting sisse
...Early alerts triggered!!!! in US equities for the exhaustion leg down in the upcoming sessions. S&P losing 1871.xx [check]will make me change short term outlook from neutral to sell rather quickly and more importantly unlocks final target 1789.x [in play] with a soft intermediate stop 1840.xx [check]...
...and I will take that.... For the 3rd time in 2 weeks clearing main short term target in Euro on the test 1.097x and leaving the rest for the extension but one big difference: which is trailing time for ECB as Euro won't hold another retrace down to 1.086x ...

Perfect european opening day with a double whammy here. Clearing S&P intermediate target on the test 1840.xx and again trailing the rest of the extension ...

One more time entering in choose your 'poison time' in the Euro but in the rest until lots of reports today and ECB tomorrow ...same levels, same trades, same all across the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,731
  • Jan 20, 2016 3:30am Jan 20, 2016 3:30am
Quoting USD-Bear
Bunds @ 161.10 turning to a disaster added some shorts @ 161 averaging up to 160.30 and moved stop to 162 for the lot. Same moves at US-Treasury 10y Preparing for defeat
hmm ... I hate recommending a trade management when you are deep out of pocket but for what is worth and if your risk allow you ...sit tight as the trade will pan out or fail on ECB tomorrow not before...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,732
  • Jan 20, 2016 3:34am Jan 20, 2016 3:34am
Quoting sisse
... until lots of reports today and ECB tomorrow ...same levels, same trades, same all across the board... sisse
Woops, I put ECB in my agenda for today. Honest mistake. Thanks for reminding me it's tomorrow.
  • #138,733
  • Jan 20, 2016 4:04am Jan 20, 2016 4:04am
Hi sisse,

let me thank you for your excellent posts here. As many others, I am following for a while and learning a lot and getting a lot of insights. Again, thank you ... your posts are highly appreciated. Please keep doing so.

Quick question re your last post:

Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ...and I will take that.... For the 3rd time in 2 weeks clearing main short term target in Euro on the test 1.097x and leaving the rest for the extension but one big difference: which is trailing time for ECB as Euro won't hold another retrace down to 1.086x ... ... sisse
Are you suggesting that the Euro will break the resistance of 1.086x with ECB decision eventually ? Or are you indicating that the Euro will be NOT breaking it prior the decision tomorrow?

I am not a native English speaker and I am bit confused by your words. Hence, many thanks for clarifying.

Hank2002
  • #138,734
  • Jan 20, 2016 4:45am Jan 20, 2016 4:45am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Woops, I put ECB in my agenda for today. Honest mistake. Thanks for reminding me it's tomorrow.
the same thing happened to me last 8 months back ... was waiting for liquidity but nothing came out ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,735
  • Jan 20, 2016 4:52am Jan 20, 2016 4:52am
Quoting sisse
{quote} hmm ... I hate recommending a trade management when you are deep out of pocket but for what is worth and if your risk allow you ...sit tight as the trade will pan out or fail on ECB tomorrow not before... sisse
well, it's more an investment to me, so not overly concerned but that also has its limits.
What's worrying me most is the fact that US Treasuries seems to lead so much, I would have thought bit more resistance there.
A failing US economy next to China would certainly mean more and more time to turn the rate trend.
Thanks for your comment, eagerly awaiting Draghi tomorrow
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,736
  • Jan 20, 2016 4:59am Jan 20, 2016 4:59am
...and thats was it for the European morning. European equities within trading distance to main final target (DAX -> 9220.x) and Euro choking for the 14th time since December at these levels ...

--> Plenty of action today with US inflation, inventories and the BOC with rates in play that can trigger a massacre in CAD (targeting a direct move non stop to the 1.50xx handle and unlocking TA wise the 'crazy' extension 1.56xx for later) .

--> Also US equities making the 3er largest selloff in this century and ticks away from becoming the second largest monthly selloff in the history of the S&P (Lehman month is the first and we wont reach that range this month for sure) passing already the 1987 crash and the about to pass the DOT com crash ... 'if you blinked you missed' ....Santa left a very nice present for those who looked in the right place (@FOOL !!!...jejeje)

As widely expected markets given one of the best month in the last few years for trading in almost all instruments across the board .....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,737
  • Jan 20, 2016 6:49am Jan 20, 2016 6:49am
Like every single day this year, Oil tripping one more time and Early Alerts triggered for a fresh break down a tick below the current lows unlock a new ext with a very intraday/daily large potential move down. We have CAD and Inflation and on top Inventories so tighten you seat belts as OIL will rock the boat whatever the outcome ....

All eyes on the BOC and OIL losing foot as they will carry the board.

For the US inflation news play a rather very complex environment. Inline or better (not expected) and we will see the low in equities by the end of month and will carry the dollar break up. While a miss or a massive flop will trigger a deeper correction in Dollar (via no rates March) and will trigger a continuation selloff in equities providing some much needed short term relief in commodities ....

Very complex field to trade it directly especially with equities worldwide in Full correction, OIL and ECB in play on top.... if you are not already in, you missed the 'meat' of the moves in almost all instruments. CAD for the knee jerk reaction and EURO (for a test of the 1.11xx handle) with a flop on inflation / ECB combo are the last chances to reload for the current legs....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,738
  • Jan 20, 2016 7:19am Jan 20, 2016 7:19am
Lighting the party favors..
  • #138,739
  • Jan 20, 2016 7:30am Jan 20, 2016 7:30am
...inline / slightly softer inflation ... watch-out for stops getting run in the EURO above the 1.097x with NY...

...surprising CAD numbers before rate cut decision unlocking the 1.455x -> 1.50xx play with intermediate stop 1.482x with Rates/oil combo...to the other side not interested in calling the top in a flying rocket...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,740
  • Jan 20, 2016 9:38am Jan 20, 2016 9:38am
...missed inflation, flop from the BOC and US opening range completed triggering imminent break down alerts in US equites. A break unlock final target 1789.xx in ES and Euro 1.108x as collateral ... OIL stable but inventories and ECB coming ... eyes on the top the hour as even more action expected for today!!!

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
7 traders viewing now