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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,701
  • Edited 11:27am Jan 18, 2016 11:16am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting IMARICH1
....
--> Tip....Use the '4 / 6' rule for TF...meaning keep a 4 or max 5 time relation between your charts otherwise either you will be going too far from the market in your direction or too close in the trigger...

You are mentioning a weekly swing !!!... you shouldn't even tracking charts below Daily and from the sound of your comments you are looking at some micro TF intraday H1? (not sure if thats the one you are using) for entries (even worst) ... which is highlighting the real issue behind (inner demons): either you are over-leveraged (trying to pinpoint the perfect entry to avoid the pain of any drawdown) or you are afraid to miss the train (you are not confident of the consistency of your trading plan) ...

Whatever the case, try to find a balance until you develop enough consistency when swinging. By simple experience in these boards I would say cut your size/leverage by 75% of your current size and you will see how suddenly your confidence and analysis improve proportionally.

--> I bet you that if you take the exactly same trade you are talking about risking a 1/4 of the example -> $0.25 per tick (max risk $37.5 bucks for $127.5) you would not hesitate as much neither will be that interested in trading the perfect entry.

Sure you wont get rich trading such small size but the gains you will get in confidence and consistency in the long run will outweigh any potential short term gains on trading with a larger size.


Quoting ClinicalEx
....About oil: I'm sure many on the equity side are also tired of jumping every time it breaches the lows. I think if there are signs of good demand/growth data, from wherever at this stage, ....
The long term bottom is 'around' the corner (Q4/Q1 2017) in my books. The mid term bottom is just open for now as we keep grinding down to find support but nobody wants to be sucker to call the bottom on a falling knife. An interesting idea from political economy scientist is linking the mid term bottom with the pain threshold of the Arab OPEC members and RUSSIA.

Basically the bottom will be found between $20.40 and $17.20 which is the line when Russia will start collapsing but will be a good $10 below in average from all other non ARAB OPEC members. meaning they will get ride of 90% of the competition if the levels are sustain for another Quarter or so..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oil cost.png Size: 138 KB


Here is the source for the data ....http://money.cnn.com/interactive/eco...arrel-of-oil/#

Interesting view and make a lot of sense ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,702
  • Jan 18, 2016 12:35pm Jan 18, 2016 12:35pm
US markets closed killed the day rather early today as expected. Oil grinding down the $28.xx and the handle is set to be lost 'any minute' with a fresh [irrelevant for trading] micro break confirmed today. Key 25.9x is now officially within intraday/daily trading range this week without needing panic to be in play. Ears sill in Highest Alert mode for a OPEC tweet at these levels ...

On the Euro, a tick above the 1.09xx handle will be enough to start the week.

We have movers from China overnight and last round of EZ numbers before ECB but expecting a very aggressive NY opening tomorrow. The board looks set for a volatile week so plenty of action expected across most instruments ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,703
  • Jan 18, 2016 12:46pm Jan 18, 2016 12:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Tip....Use the '4 / 6' rule for TF...meaning keep a 4 or max 5 time relation between your charts otherwise either you will be going too far from the market in your direction or too close in the trigger... You are mentioning a weekly swing !!!... you shouldn't even tracking charts below Daily and from the sound of your comments you are looking at some micro TF intraday H1? (not sure if thats the one you are using) for entries (even worst) ... which is highlighting the real issue behind (inner demons): either you are over-leveraged (trying...
It makes lots of sense looking at that cutoff line. There's loads of juice in putting the squeeze on those high twenties in particular- before anything else. Then they want to keep it down for a while like you say with the floor maybe settling around the 20 handle. It's just a mega, mega supply glut more than anything else, imo, with China standing out as the negative (admittedly crucial.) outlier on the demand side.

Let's see how the news goes overnight as it may well set the tone for tomorrows trading. GDP holding steady or ticking up and with steady lower highs on the industrial production trend meaning a spike up +- 7+ should do the trick in injecting broad-based risk taking in the market.

Otherwise, the gloomier risk off play in A/U already in full swing with a massive level in play too 0.6970, indirectly as of now, and equities still poised to keep sweeping the lows. I'm sure tomorrow will be a lot more interesting too.
  • #138,704
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:10am Jan 19, 2016 3:10am
China keep printing lower numbers and manufacturing worldwide cannot find foot. German numbers coming and if we get a bad sentiment print markets wont even wait for NY open to start the week.

Trading wise all markets in simple continuation mode. Alerts triggered in OIL losing the floor for the 20th time this month. Euro still highly (uniquely) correlated to the rest of the board back to 1.086x one more quick time in the opening range. A tick above to the 1.09xx handle is enough to start the week...

Expecting lots of action this week but for now same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,705
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:11am Jan 19, 2016 3:11am
again getting a support @.086x now what sisse has to say about it .... smaller tf double top completed the leg .....now lets c which way (head or tail)....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,706
  • Jan 19, 2016 4:08am Jan 19, 2016 4:08am
Quoting sisse
....second key update of the day in european equites with the European close:

--> Changing short term outlook in european equities (ref DAX and CAC) from SELL to NEUTRAL
Miss in the EZ sentiment, slightly better in the German one....eyes on 974x.xx holing in DAX to complete the range...and that will be pretty much it for the european session...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,707
  • Jan 19, 2016 5:35am Jan 19, 2016 5:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Miss in the EZ sentiment, slightly better in the German one....eyes on 974x.xx [check]holing in DAX to complete the range...and that will be pretty much it for the european session... sisse
Simple move DAX testing 974x.xx ...and we ready for NY ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,708
  • Jan 19, 2016 7:32am Jan 19, 2016 7:32am
Here we go for the US. Expecting a rather moving sessions starting with today's US session.

All eyes in Oil for the rest of the day. Losing 29.3x unlocks the lows and the test 25.9x later.

On the Euro, the mid term compression range is reaching unsustainable levels, its going to blow very soon and with enough fuel for a large, very large move. We wont hold this week.... Whatever the case, bulls look super heavy. They are choking at the highs and they are screaming for a OIL/Equities hand in the following session ...

Not much to see or do until nY jumps on board ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,709
  • Jan 19, 2016 7:53am Jan 19, 2016 7:53am
Quoting sisse
Here we go for the US. Expecting a rather moving sessions starting with today's US session. All eyes in Oil for the rest of the day. Losing 29.3x unlocks the lows and the test 25.9x later. On the Euro, the mid term compression range is reaching unsustainable levels, its going to blow very soon and with enough fuel for a large, very large move. We wont hold this week.... Whatever the case, bulls look super heavy. They are choking at the highs and they are screaming for a OIL/Equities hand in the following session ... Not much to see or do until nY...
Heavy cus we're loaded with rocket fuel, explosives, party favors, naked women, and margaritas

party on the international space station- you're invited
  • #138,710
  • Jan 19, 2016 7:57am Jan 19, 2016 7:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Heavy cus we're loaded with rocket fuel, explosives, party favors, naked women, and margaritas party on the international space station- you're invited
is this rocket also capable go into the earth?
  • #138,711
  • Edited 8:18am Jan 19, 2016 8:05am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Heavy cus we're loaded with rocket fuel, explosives, party favors, naked women, and margaritas <img src="http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Wink" smilieid="85" class="inlineimg" /> party on the international space station- you're invited
</p>

Jejeje...watch out for failure........
Inserted Video


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,712
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:05am Jan 19, 2016 8:05am
"Sure you wont get rich trading such small size but the gains you will get in confidence and consistency in the long run will outweigh any potential short term gains on trading with a larger size." sisse


Couldn't agree more. I may have missed the boat here. We shall see. No positions as I await the .097X-1.1080 handle if we get back there. We will soon find out!

Thanks for your take on the markets! Learning so much!
  • #138,713
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:05am Jan 19, 2016 8:05am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} is this rocket also capable go into the earth?
that's the submarine party for Atlantis, I heard they are a few blocks down. I wasn't invited sadly

Last I heard they were still planning and my ticket was in the post
  • #138,714
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:12am Jan 19, 2016 8:12am
Quoting sisse
All eyes in Oil for the rest of the day. Losing 29.3x unlocks the lows and the test 25.9x later. .... sisse
..and holding opens 41.x
69
  • #138,715
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:15am Jan 19, 2016 10:15am
Quoting sisse
Quoting sisse
...Trading wise all markets in simple continuation mode. Alerts triggered in OIL losing the floor for the 20th time this month...
... All eyes in Oil for the rest of the day. Losing 29.3x unlocks the lows [check] and the test 25.9x later....
Quoting sisse
Cable sitting in KEY mid and long term levels. 1.437x [check] is major momentum line to the downside. Dovish BOE may push dollar even higher pushing the DXY for a break up and will unlock a rather quick leg to 1.386x[in play]with strong intermediate stops @ 1.413x [check]
....and I will take that... clearing simple target in OIL on the test of lows but bigger and more importantly clearing first target in GU 1.413x for those trading from the 1.44xx handle after Carney killed rates for the time being...

Tracking the European close to see if we are going to get a decent US session via OIL/Equities combo later in the afternoon...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,716
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:47am Jan 19, 2016 11:47am
As widely expected stops run on the the tick above to the 1.09xx handle ...watch-out for Euro shooting above 1.097x for the closing range...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,717
  • Jan 19, 2016 12:08pm Jan 19, 2016 12:08pm
...super active day continue ...markets are on the brink of major moves across all assets classes this week.

Early alerts triggered!!!! in US equities for the exhaustion leg down in the upcoming sessions. S&P losing 1871.xx will make me change short term outlook from neutral to sell rather quickly and more importantly unlocks final target 1789.x with a soft intermediate stop 1840.xx ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,718
  • Jan 19, 2016 12:52pm Jan 19, 2016 12:52pm
Market feeling the power of Deflation.
Quoting sisse
...super active day continue ...markets are on the brink of major moves across all assets classes this week. Early alerts triggered!!!! in US equities for the exhaustion leg down in the upcoming sessions. S&P losing 1871.xx will make me change short term outlook from neutral to sell rather quickly and more importantly unlocks final target 1789.x with a soft intermediate stop 1840.xx ... sisse
​
  • #138,719
  • Jan 19, 2016 2:39pm Jan 19, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting felixjabreu
Market feeling the power of Deflation. ​
yeah that'll give us something to talk about for the next 10-20 years
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,720
  • Jan 19, 2016 2:41pm Jan 19, 2016 2:41pm
very strong flows on the closing range...one more time watchout OIL grinding down to the $27.xx handle for the close/overnight. This time a tick below the handle and we wont have a pullback but we will go for the homerun ...

Key closes in the making in equities, major moves in play... Euro keep being the worst instrument form the major to trade this year ...and bulls keep choking on every test on the highs. Tracking 1.093x for the close as we have a plethora of movers and shakers from tomorrow till the ECB conference ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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