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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #138,301
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:31am Jan 18, 2016 2:31am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Since we're talking A/C I'm in too. AUD/CAD H4 PB (thanks Scotty) Evening star has formed too (not a j16 signal)....noice. {image}

He GB,

I just cut my trade at .9986, as it had reached today/sunday's open-price and stalled/retraced; didn't like that.
I didn't take that PB, because I was already invested.
However, technically it shows up as a wick-bar (no close back into prev. range).
That, as well as it being right above parity would have kept me out I suppose.

I hope you can reach that .9934 area you mentioned, or at least move some of the risk once the BEOB's close-price is reached (.99579) << (fills the weekend-gap too)
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,302
  • Edited 3:42am Jan 18, 2016 3:03am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} He GB, I just cut my trade at .9986, as it had reached today/sunday's open-price and stalled/retraced; didn't like that. I didn't take that PB, because I was already invested. However, technically it shows up as a wick-bar (no close back into prev. range). That, as well as it being right above parity would have kept me out I suppose. I hope you can reach that .9934 area you mentioned, or at least move some of the risk once the BEOB's close-price is reached (.99579) << (fills the weekend-gap too)
Thanks Don. Glad you made some pips.

Edit: Geez, just realized I've drawn some levels incorrectly. Weekly close is 0.99781 as is yesterdays D1 close to the pip. Strong level that we are currently trading into. If price doesn't break through, i'll cut out with a little profit.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,303
  • Jan 18, 2016 3:56am Jan 18, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Thanks Don. Glad you made some pips. Edit: Geez, just realized I've drawn some levels incorrectly. Weekly close is 0.99781 as is yesterdays D1 close to the pip. Strong level that we are currently trading into. If price doesn't break through, i'll cut out with a little profit.

I figured, with parity in our sails, we should be able to reach the close of the BEOB.
Gaps however, are known to act as support/resistance, so no surprise price tested the open and went back.

I still think, considering the 1.0000 being a massive level, that price will come down further, towards the base of the first (H4) chart I just posted.
we'll see.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,304
  • Jan 18, 2016 5:04am Jan 18, 2016 5:04am
Quoting baavgai
Hey GB and Don , thank you guys ! Very clear explanation ! Bat
very nice indeed
  • #138,305
  • Jan 18, 2016 5:09am Jan 18, 2016 5:09am
Hi all great trading
  • #138,306
  • Jan 18, 2016 5:37am Jan 18, 2016 5:37am
Hi folks ,

I'm long on Eur/Aud 4 H .

- PB at PPZ & RN
-Swing low
- Entry 1.5800 , SL 1.5700 , TP 1.6000

Pls give me your comments on it
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  • #138,307
  • Jan 18, 2016 5:37am Jan 18, 2016 5:37am
Thanks everyone for your response. I'm definitely not up to speed when it comes to fundamentals. My focus has been technicals, pa, etc. I agree with you GB on the weak close of the beob. I thought the location and close below the vbrn was worth a second look. Thanks again everyone, I hope to contribute more or at least bug you guys with my questions in the future.

Good luck with that trade GB, looks good. I don't have a pb on my 4hr.
  • #138,308
  • Edited 9:33am Jan 18, 2016 9:15am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting baavgai
Hi folks , I'm long on Eur/Aud 4 H . - PB at PPZ & RN -Swing low - Entry 1.5800 , SL 1.5700 , TP 1.6000 Pls give me your comments on it {image}
Bat,

That red trendline is either from a different TF, of is really not of the quality we're looking for here.
A good trendline consists of at least three individual touches & reactions.
As for the pinbar, it is not a pinbar on my (FxPro) feed, because the prior bar's low is at 1.57965, whereas the pinbar, closes below this low (at 1.57908).
If the pinbar closes within the previous bar's range on your feed, Mike & James would tell you to trade it the way your broker shows it.
Even when disregarding the closing technicality, your pinbar is really small relative to the last bar alone.
I also think the swing here, as in the swing low, is not that low.

I do like that you picked a clear area of resistance-turned-support, to trade PA of of.
We really do want to look for a strong story to go along with your PPZ and PA-confirmation, such as (Big)RN's and harmonic patterns.

Lastly, before the chart, I'd like to show the divergence happening (pink line's).
Divergence is the loss of momentum that trends show before turning; if you seach Mike's profile for the keyword 'Divergence', this will all be cleared up if needed.

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[edit: the lines I've added both lack a third touch and are there to suggest an area to look for a confirmation of a trendline, to use in managing your risk.]

For now, if you're still in the trade, I think 1.6000 is quite reachable, given the strong uptrend and the support of the PPZ.
I do want to press the fact that 1.6000 has been touched already, and if this instance of MAC/d is a correct harbinger of a trend-reversal, price may be looking for a lower high, adding doubt to the target-feasability.
This is where trade-management plays a big role.

________________________________________________________________________
Quoting scmbmw
Thanks everyone for your response. I'm definitely not up to speed when it comes to fundamentals. My focus has been technicals, pa, etc. I agree with you GB on the weak close of the beob. I thought the location and close below the vbrn was worth a second look. Thanks again everyone, I hope to contribute more or at least bug you guys with my questions in the future. Good luck with that trade GB, looks good. I don't have a pb on my 4hr.
Focussing on technicals is a great starter move and perhaps, you might never feel the need to look beyond it, which is ok.
Given the fact that an infinity of factors can/do influence FX, you can safely assume you always know closer to nothing than you are to 'being up to speed on the fundamentals'.
However, when a big economy like China devalues it's currency, that's a big move for the rest of the FX-space and has recently manifested in a 'risk-off'-sentiment. NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY are very sentitive to risk-on/-off sentiment, so learning to make a distincting between the two [risk sentiment] may open up your eyes to correlations across FX, you've not seen before.

Still, just like PA, a PPZ, a round number or divergence, any element added is just another small piece of a bigger story.
Practicing the story-forming part (stacking-up the 'confluence') is the way to go and it seems as though you're doing well there.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,309
  • Jan 18, 2016 10:34am Jan 18, 2016 10:34am
Hey Don,

Thanks for your comments. Much of this is beyond my understanding at this point. I do try to be aware of big market news, and the current situation in China is not something to ignore. I haven't put much consideration into how that plays into what I'm seeing on the charts. Risk assessment is admittedly new to me. Learning to understand and gauge this may take a while. Also, I have only recently begun to take note of the correlation between pairs and the effect that has. I have a long way to go before having a grasp on these concepts.
  • #138,310
  • Jan 18, 2016 10:49am Jan 18, 2016 10:49am
Quoting scmbmw
Hey Don, Thanks for your comments. Much of this is beyond my understanding at this point. I do try to be aware of big market news, and the current situation in China is not something to ignore. I haven't put much consideration into how that plays into what I'm seeing on the charts. Risk assessment is admittedly new to me. Learning to understand and gauge this may take a while. Also, I have only recently begun to take note of the correlation between pairs and the effect that has. I have a long way to go before having a grasp on these concepts.
Please do keep in mind that these fundamental issues all reside outside the domain of this thread, purely technical here.
Technical analysis by itself may prove more effective, as fundamentals tend to quickly overload you with info, so keeping track of everything isn't worth it I think.
I personally use ZeroHedge as my go-to guy for what's brewing behind the scenes, but it's mostly doom&gloom, so never make a trade based just on a (zerohedge-inspired) fundamental conviction.

Risk assesment, or sentiment of just more of a background that at times make a story just perfect.
Quite recently, I felt surprised by the accelleration of bad news, tensions and other bizarre events, lined up perfectly for a bad start to 2016 (risk-off sentiment)
I had a technical outlook by year-end for GBP/JPY:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I was really gunning for PA at the line, but didn't get what I was looking for.
Still, a nice example where a fundamental background agrees very well with the technicals.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,311
  • Jan 18, 2016 11:49am Jan 18, 2016 11:49am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} He there Bill I agree with you in that AUD and CAD are both challenged currencies as they both have high exposure to commodities. Anyway, I don't quite agree with you on the notion that it's moving unpredictably or even sideways. Before year end [2015] I had this AUDCAD setup in my crosshairs: {image} As you can see, the line was broken with a H4 BEOB, which worked like a charm. I chickened out, mostly because the BEOB was above parity. I've waited for price to rebound to parity and show some PA subsequently. This happened last friday, with...
Good luck with it man! I'm currently short on AUD/JPY (shorter term trade) and AUD/USD (longer term trade) so i hope your AUD/CAD heads south for you. In regards to the uptrend channel it had at the end of 2015, it was predictable enough for me to place 4 trades during this time, all very successful. I think i even posted 1 or 2 here on the thread. But right now on my feed and in my opinion, i see the beginnings of a sideways channel or Box (see charts below). But as i also said, it's sometime off yet of being fully formed and it may never form, who knows!
Bill
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  • #138,312
  • Jan 18, 2016 12:11pm Jan 18, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Good luck with it man! I'm currently short on AUD/JPY (shorter term trade) and AUD/USD (longer term trade) so i hope your AUD/CAD heads south for you. In regards to the uptrend channel it had at the end of 2015, it was predictable enough for me to place 4 trades during this time, all very successful. I think i even posted 1 or 2 here on the thread. But right now on my feed and in my opinion, i see the beginnings of a sideways channel or Box (see charts below). But as i also said, it's sometime off yet of being fully formed and it may never...
I'm back on the sidelines for now, as I took a small +8 pips on AUD/CAD, corresponding to just under 0.1% (risk was .75%).
My trade explorer seems to be way off in the return precentages the last couple of trades.
The all-time and yearly, are working fine, as is the trade list.

I see it moved down to just below te close of the BEOB and went higher from there.
Typical behaviour of an outsidebar with this weak a close I think, so an exit the open/close can be as much as you can get, so a retrace entry is essential.

I'll keep an eye on the box forming on AUDCAD.

The only one on my watchlist for now is USD/JPY:

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Most other JPY/crosses have moved lower through their divergence setups, so I think this could be a decisive setup for the longevity of those runners.
I've marked the area of support as a zone, because the support doesn't seen to line up perfectly everywhere, so a fake-out could well be in the cards.

I'd want to see PA break lower for a move towards 110 - 110.50
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,313
  • Edited 1:23pm Jan 18, 2016 1:10pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting baavgai
Hi folks , I'm long on Eur/Aud 4 H . - PB at PPZ & RN -Swing low - Entry 1.5800 , SL 1.5700 , TP 1.6000 Pls give me your comments on it {image}
Well done Bat. Looks like you made some pips. Price may struggle to get to your TP 1.6000 though, as there is a PPZ just above you around 1.59000 area plus a lot of congestion coming up. Price may reverse soon from this area so be watchful, but as long as your risk is managed you'll be ok. GB.

EUR/AUD D1. Purple line monthly close resistance, orange line weekly and daily close resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,314
  • Jan 18, 2016 10:58pm Jan 18, 2016 10:58pm
Eur/aud h4 beovb

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,315
  • Jan 18, 2016 11:42pm Jan 18, 2016 11:42pm
Hi Don ,

thank you very much for your clear explanation and time ! Very appreciated man
I did closed this trade with BE .

I assumed that I absolutely ignored MACD divergence for this trade . In my further trades I will remember it .

Also thanks for lesson about TL

Bat
  • #138,316
  • Jan 18, 2016 11:48pm Jan 18, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
Eur/aud h4 beovb {image}
He GB ,

thanks for your kind words and notes on my trade .
I closed this trade with BE .

Let me ask on your EUR AUD 4 H trade .

As I see you entered on close od this BEOB right ?
Can it be good entry to go short at 1.5800 when price retrace on it ?
How you determine TP ?

Thanks

Bat
  • #138,317
  • Edited 3:50am Jan 19, 2016 12:40am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting baavgai
{quote} He GB , thanks for your kind words and notes on my trade . I closed this trade with BE . Let me ask on your EUR AUD 4 H trade . As I see you entered on close od this BEOB right ? Can it be good entry to go short at 1.5800 when price retrace on it ? How you determine TP ? Thanks Bat
TP at first TA, PPZ, S/R zone. up to you. My TP has been moved to next support around 1.55500 area. I usually look for a retrace but took break of bar in this case. I would be careful shorting this pair at the moment. Chart still looks bullish and this might just be a correction south before turning north. Who knows? All the best. GB

Update: EUR/AUD H4. Closed this trade for a few pips. Price stalling a little. Good enough for me.

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XAU/USD D1 IB. Going off.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,318
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:11am Jan 19, 2016 6:11am
A nice example of WIPG on the GbpNzd 4hr chart.

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  • #138,319
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:35am Jan 19, 2016 11:35am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} XAU/USD D1 IB. Going off. {image}
Hey GB,
would be careful with that,
for me its not a real IB, since its from bank holiday with low liquidity and
long gold positions nearly doubled according to COT.
  • #138,320
  • Edited 12:05pm Jan 19, 2016 11:48am | Edited 12:05pm
Nearly there....
Big lesson from this trade and EUR/GBP i was in earlier (110 pip profit) - BE PATIENT! because if i had waited for a bigger retrace, i would have made much bigger profit. Much bigger. Patience is a key ingredient!
EDIT: Chickened out, took profit near top of preceding bar. Comfortable with that
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