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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #138,281
  • Jan 16, 2016 6:12am Jan 16, 2016 6:12am
Usd-CHF's possible big bang

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  • #138,282
  • Jan 16, 2016 11:31am Jan 16, 2016 11:31am
Any thoughts on GBPNZD outside bar, anyone?
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  • #138,283
  • Jan 16, 2016 12:03pm Jan 16, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting incognito517
Any thoughts on GBPNZD outside bar, anyone?{image}
I think the key area to watch is the yellow circle I marked
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  • #138,284
  • Edited 2:12pm Jan 16, 2016 1:45pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting incognito517
Any thoughts on GBPNZD outside bar, anyone?{image}
Yes, watching this myself, if you go down to the 4hr chart it helps make the area it's at and might be going to a lot clearer. Price has stopped right on a ppz and there is a clear target below at the next ppz , got to be aware there is the 2.20 BRN in between but price seems to have reacted more at the ppz's in the past (creating boxes). The outside bar could be the signal that this retrace is over and the price will carry on it's downward movement, who knows. If you're on demo it will be a good exercise in managing your risk. Extra weight is the fact the weekly finished as a pinbar.

4hr CHART

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Weekly CHART

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  • #138,285
  • Jan 16, 2016 2:19pm Jan 16, 2016 2:19pm
Quoting incognito517
Any thoughts on GBPNZD outside bar, anyone?{image}
Hey Incognito,

This is technically a bearish outside bar, so well done for noticing this, but I have outlined in purple as you can see that we are actually in a small box. Does this trade have space?

Another thing to think about is the bar size. Is this really a large enough bar?

It's engulfing only one bar. Is this enough?

Where is this bar located? Is this an important swing high where we traditionally want to see BEOBs? I would argue this is a minor swing high. Not that there are not exceptions to this principle i.e breakout trades, but in this scenario this is definitely something to consider.

Just some points for you to consider, obviously just my opinion based on what I have learnt from Mike and what I personally have observed from the markets,
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  • #138,286
  • Jan 17, 2016 3:37am Jan 17, 2016 3:37am
Quoting Guitarbloke
NZD/USD D1 BEOVB. Love these outside/engulfing pin bar cousins. Edit: Bill, the moon at it's closest point is 363,104 kilometres away. Beware the potential for false break on E/C. {image}
What EMA do you use?
  • #138,287
  • Jan 17, 2016 2:48pm Jan 17, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting hunzul
{quote} Hey Incognito, This is technically a bearish outside bar, so well done for noticing this, but I have outlined in purple as you can see that we are actually in a small box. Does this trade have space? Another thing to think about is the bar size. Is this really a large enough bar? It's engulfing only one bar. Is this enough? Where is this bar located? Is this an important swing high where we traditionally want to see BEOBs? I would argue this is a minor swing high. Not that there are not exceptions to this principle i.e breakout trades, but...
this is awesome Hunzul, exactly how i'd view it

A few people asked me about that would and I said the same thing. The other thing I said is that the PPZ marked is PERFECT. That's really the place I'd want to find and execute a trade around. So maybe we get a buob this week for example closing just above it and we can buy at that zone now

Thanks for helping!
Mike
  • #138,288
  • Edited 4:53pm Jan 17, 2016 3:26pm | Edited 4:53pm
Where is price going? Exercise. Let's see.

USD/CHF H4 IB.

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GBP/NZD W1 PB.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,289
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:44pm Jan 17, 2016 4:44pm
That is a good set up both on the daily and weekly charts.

Quoting lenrod
{quote} I think the key area to watch is the yellow circle I marked {image}
  • #138,290
  • Jan 17, 2016 8:23pm Jan 17, 2016 8:23pm
Hey everyone. I've been lurking here for a while and over at the PF. I know I need to get more involved, so here goes. What am I missing with regard to the BEOB on AUDCAD? It's closed below 1.0, but maybe not below the current PPZ. The weekly closed pretty bullish and it has retraced quite a ways at this point. I'm not playing it, just trying to put the pieces together. Call it a WIPG exercise, I guess. Thanks for the insight. Scott
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  • #138,291
  • Edited 9:56pm Jan 17, 2016 8:27pm | Edited 9:56pm
Where did price go? Right where you'd expect it too.

USD/CHF H4

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Bam! Thanks Jim.

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Edit: New trade. AUD/USD H1 IB. Close below weekly support now resistance. Target - recent lows for around 70 pips/3R. Tight stop/low risk.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,292
  • Jan 17, 2016 9:30pm Jan 17, 2016 9:30pm
Quoting scmbmw
Hey everyone. I've been lurking here for a while and over at the PF. I know I need to get more involved, so here goes. What am I missing with regard to the BEOB on AUDCAD? It's closed below 1.0, but maybe not below the current PPZ. The weekly closed pretty bullish and it has retraced quite a ways at this point. I'm not playing it, just trying to put the pieces together. Call it a WIPG exercise, I guess. Thanks for the insight. Scott{image}
Hi Scott,
My personal opinion is that both these currencies are quite weak at the moment generally and it's causing some indecisive, unpredictable movement between the two. In other words it looks to be going sideways. I see a nice box forming actually but it could be some time away.
Instead perhaps focus on the other AUD/ pairings on the D1 charts because there are some lovely BEOB's in downtrends. I'm just waiting for a little extra confluence to enter either AUD/CHF or JPY or SGD or USD.

USD/JPY BEOB D1 in downtrend with a price flip on the 4H?
WIPG?... i think to 1.1600 or thereabouts.
EDIT: Technically it's a DBHLC.
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  • #138,293
  • Jan 17, 2016 10:29pm Jan 17, 2016 10:29pm
Quoting scmbmw
Hey everyone. I've been lurking here for a while and over at the PF. I know I need to get more involved, so here goes. What am I missing with regard to the BEOB on AUDCAD? It's closed below 1.0, but maybe not below the current PPZ. The weekly closed pretty bullish and it has retraced quite a ways at this point. I'm not playing it, just trying to put the pieces together. Call it a WIPG exercise, I guess. Thanks for the insight. Scott{image}
Hi Scott. I'm not a gr8 reader of bar charts but that doesn't look like a good BEOVB to me, at least on my feed. Better if bar closes well into lower 3rd of bar. Bearish PB on H4 might send price down from here though, along with the fact yesterdays D1 bar rejected and closed below monthly and weekly resistance. Current price looking like it wants to trade below daily close too. BRN 1.0000 just below though. Could be good for a few pips at least down to 0.9935 area where I see some support on the H4. Good to see you back. GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,294
  • Jan 18, 2016 12:01am Jan 18, 2016 12:01am
Quoting Guitarbloke
Where did price go? Right where you'd expect it too. USD/CHF H4 {image} Bam! Thanks Jim. {image} Edit: New trade. AUD/USD H1 IB. Close below weekly support now resistance. Target - recent lows for around 70 pips/3R. Tight stop/low risk. {image}

Hey Guitar ,

can you explain in detail how did you determine that the price will go long for your last trade ?
I was watching it too , could not do anything .

Thanks

Bat
  • #138,295
  • Edited 12:44am Jan 18, 2016 12:41am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting baavgai
{quote} Hey Guitar , can you explain in detail how did you determine that the price will go long for your last trade ? I was watching it too , could not do anything . Thanks Bat
Hi Baavgai,

GB used the inside bar, that broke out to the upside.
Inside bars (IB's) can be quite tricky as any regular here would tell you.
They work particularly well if the location of the IB gives you a directional bias, (e.g. sell IB's on the top of a box, buy IB's at the bottom).

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Here's an example of a box-consolidation where I've marked two IB's; one on the top of the box, one on the bottom.
The first one (on the top of the box) is located, so that it gives you the directional bias the go short only.
The second one is long only, since we want to be buyers of the bottom bound of a box, sellers of the top.

Alternatively, you could wait for IB's at the boundraries of boxes, to be broken on the 'wrong' side first, so that if it comes back for the other side, you've got an 'Outside Bar' at a great location.

Hope that clears it up.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,296
  • Jan 18, 2016 1:02am Jan 18, 2016 1:02am
Quoting baavgai
{quote
Quoting baavgai
} Hey Guitar , can you explain in detail how did you determine that the price will go long for your last trade ? I was watching it too , could not do anything . Thanks Bat

Hi Baav. Firstly price was in an uptrend. 2nd, price closed above 150 ema and had a bullish story. Also I had some price action which was an inside bar as Don pointed out. So for me, my bias was for price to go up before it went down. Then it was a matter of looking left to find nearest/first likely resistance level. Look up James 16 you tube for videos on 'where did price go' which should explain things better. Worth a look. Sorry, tried to post video but wouldn't let me. GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,297
  • Jan 18, 2016 1:50am Jan 18, 2016 1:50am
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Hi Scott, My personal opinion is that both these currencies are quite weak at the moment generally and it's causing some indecisive, unpredictable movement between the two. In other words it looks to be going sideways. I see a nice box forming actually but it could be some time away. Instead perhaps focus on the other AUD/ pairings on the D1 charts because there are some lovely BEOB's in downtrends. I'm just waiting for a little extra confluence to enter either AUD/CHF or JPY or SGD or USD. USD/JPY BEOB D1 in downtrend with a price flip...
He there Bill

I agree with you in that AUD and CAD are both challenged currencies as they both have high exposure to commodities.
Anyway, I don't quite agree with you on the notion that it's moving unpredictably or even sideways.

Before year end [2015] I had this AUDCAD setup in my crosshairs:

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As you can see, the line was broken with a H4 BEOB, which worked like a charm.
I chickened out, mostly because the BEOB was above parity.

I've waited for price to rebound to parity and show some PA subsequently.
This happened last friday, with the Daily closing below parity, as a BEOB.

I've shorted a retrace close to parity and sat through the rest of the correction.
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I'll gladly take the BEOB's closing price as an exit, but I've got the TP in place below the BEOB, in case it breaks or fakes.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #138,298
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:12am Jan 18, 2016 2:12am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} He there Bill I agree with you in that AUD and CAD are both challenged currencies as they both have high exposure to commodities. Anyway, I don't quite agree with you on the notion that it's moving unpredictably or even sideways. Before year end [2015] I had this AUDCAD setup in my crosshairs: {image} As you can see, the line was broken with a H4 BEOB, which worked like a charm. I chickened out, mostly because the BEOB was above parity. I've waited for price to rebound to parity and show some PA subsequently. This happened last friday, with...
Since we're talking A/C I'm in too. AUD/CAD H4 PB (thanks Scotty) Evening star has formed too (not a j16 signal)....noice.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,299
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:14am Jan 18, 2016 2:14am
Hey GB and Don ,

thank you guys !
Very clear explanation !

Bat
  • #138,300
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:23am Jan 18, 2016 2:23am
Quoting baavgai
Hey GB and Don , thank you guys ! Very clear explanation ! Bat
No worries friend. Look forward to seeing some of your charts.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
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