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BO System? Here is "The Italian jOB"

  • #1,161
  • Nov 11, 2015 7:23am Nov 11, 2015 7:23am
Quoting yuki0912
Hi all I'm newbie of this thread but I'm in this thread and 2 Question. 1) 1st type of jOB is still good? I wanna try 1st type, so someone tell me Impressions. 2)Is it work on 5M chart? 1M binary is difficult for me(very fast) That's why I wanna try 5M chart. and does it work? Thank you in before
Hi yuki, Italian job still work on 5 min TF also. In the end of the week I will do a little cleaning in the first post with different setups so stay tuned.
  • #1,162
  • Nov 11, 2015 7:32am Nov 11, 2015 7:32am
Quoting ilMike
{quote} Hi yuki, Italian job still work on 5 min TF also. In the end of the week I will do a little cleaning in the first post with different setups so stay tuned.
Hi

Thanks

I'll wait!
  • #1,163
  • Nov 11, 2015 7:36am Nov 11, 2015 7:36am
Quoting MoralAtheist
Hello Mike and all, Please can can you tell me, has anybody done a seriously large back test on this system? I mean like 5 or ten years of 1 minute chart data? I just did a quick test using an Excel spreadsheet with the calcs for Bollinger, rsi, and stochastic loaded as per the system, and ran it against the whole of 2015 1 minute chart from 8:00 to 21:00 GMT every trading day, I am sorry to report that it has a win rate of less than 53% which is actually lower than just using Bollinger on its own.... Maybe I am missing something? MA
Hi MA, thanks for you participation, at the end of the week I'll send to you also some different setup with more detailed specs, so you can do a new check. Anyway I am receiving lot of PM of thanks, but in any case we need to do more for best results. I'm working for it. Any suggestion is well received.
  • #1,164
  • Nov 11, 2015 7:47am Nov 11, 2015 7:47am
Quoting ilMike
{quote} Hi MA, thanks for you participation, at the end of the week I'll send to you also some different setup with more detailed specs, so you can do a new check. Anyway I am receiving lot of PM of thanks, but in any case we need to do more for best results. I'm working for it. Any suggestion is well received.

Hi Mike,

I think the problem is unless a lot of data is thrown at a method it is really hard to assess the win/loss rate, manually counting the chart just won't cut it as we all suffer from "confirmation bias" and miss losing trades subconsciously, also counting with the computer allows a much bigger sample to be counted. My spreadsheet was loaded with 300,000+ candles!

Of course it is possible to get lucky for a while and make money, but really unless there is a big enough edge to over come the "house" the end result will be losses.

I've been working on stats for binaries for a couple of weeks now, and I can assure you there are lot of counter intuitive results. I looked at your set up and I thought, yeah that looks hopeful, sadly the numbers over a large sample rarely lie.

Sorry if my info is a disappointment.. and who knows maybe I made a mistake.. Be lucky!
Stop or target...
  • #1,165
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:58pm Nov 11, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting MoralAtheist
{quote} Hi Mike, I think the problem is unless a lot of data is thrown at a method it is really hard to assess the win/loss rate, manually counting the chart just won't cut it as we all suffer from "confirmation bias" and miss losing trades subconsciously, also counting with the computer allows a much bigger sample to be counted. My spreadsheet was loaded with 300,000+ candles! Of course it is possible to get lucky for a while and make money, but really unless there is a big enough edge to over come the "house" the end result will be losses. I've...
.

I totally agree with you. In fact one of the first thing that I write in my first post was that this system (the original one) give a win ratio that goes from 50% to 75%. But the win ratio is not my first prerogative now.

This thread was born not with the purpose to say "Hey all, I've find the holy grail!", but to say "Hey guys, I think I'm working on something intresting, would you help me?" and luckly I've met a lot of incredible people that give me lot! We all know how much the b.o. may be bastards and how much stupid we are using a wrong MM, like a martingala.

My first prerogative with the Italian jOB is to work on something that give us a maximum number of consecutive losses and to create an EA based on it. It is and it will impossible to find or create an "indicator" that can give us always 80 or 90 or 100% of win ratio, but we can create something that can help us to take the right decision in a bad moment.
For me a "good" indicator is that one that give me a maximum of X(4) consecutive losses, not that one that give me 80% of win ratio... that is relative.

Anyway, my trading style is based on PA for the 85%, I use indi when I need a confirmation.

I hope to give you all a better contribute in the next few days.
  • #1,166
  • Nov 11, 2015 1:27pm Nov 11, 2015 1:27pm
Thank you for being so willing to share.
U won't really understand GRACE untill you fully realise you've been GRACED
  • #1,167
  • Nov 11, 2015 2:10pm Nov 11, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting ilMike
{quote}. I totally agree with you. In fact one of the first thing that I write in my first post was that this system (the original one) give a win ratio that goes from 50% to 75%. But the win ratio is not my first prerogative now. This thread was born not with the purpose to say "Hey all, I've find the holy grail!", but to say "Hey guys, I think I'm working on something intresting, would you help me?" and luckly I've met a lot of incredible people that give me lot! We all know how much the b.o. may be bastards and how much stupid we are using a...
I can't see how you can say with any confidence what the max number of losses in a row will be. My point was that the indicators combined here perform less well than Bollinger on its own.... so as such I am not sure what the point of the combination is. Maybe I am missing the point.

You say your trading style is based on PA, You use indicators when you need confirmation... Confirmation of what? Your gut feeling?
Stop or target...
  • #1,168
  • Nov 11, 2015 5:30pm Nov 11, 2015 5:30pm
The only thing certain in life is that we are going to die. For the rest you're not saying anything new.
  • #1,169
  • Nov 11, 2015 7:56pm Nov 11, 2015 7:56pm
I don't think i'm gona die . I think I' m gona be changed in the twinkling of an eye.
U won't really understand GRACE untill you fully realise you've been GRACED
  • #1,170
  • Nov 12, 2015 3:17am Nov 12, 2015 3:17am
Quoting ilMike
The only thing certain in life is that we are going to die. For the rest you're not saying anything new.

No I guess it is not new. What is certain, is that playing Binaries the way you suggest is like playing roulette, except worse, because the house edge is greater.

I am trying to be constructive, scientific, I don't like living in a dream world. I have found a 65% ish win rate method that works on 1 minute data in every year for the last 7, the thing is it only generates on average 10 signals per week assuming 8:00 AM to 9:00 PM every day, trading it manually would be almost impossible, I've written an Excel VBA program that executes the trades and perhaps I'll come back here in a few months and tell you the results.
Stop or target...
  • #1,171
  • Nov 12, 2015 4:06am Nov 12, 2015 4:06am
don't know what to say Moral, I can only repeat what I've already said, I'm here trying to work on something that every one can modify with the final intention to create an EA that can help us. We start from a point, but we don't know where we're going. We have already see that the performance are good but not enough for an EA. An so? We have tried, and I'm personally work on a new thing. I'm the first one that doesn't use the Italian jOB for a manually trade, I get crazy waiting all day in front of PC for just some "signal".
I appreciate a lot what you say and your contribution and believe me, I hope you can help me again when I'm ready because I've your same prerogative, have something "scientific". But by myself I can't do a lot, I need someone like you and only here I can find people ready to cooperate.
so I hope that you will join and enjoy with me doing more scientific test.

but tell me a thing, is good my English? give me a smile
  • #1,172
  • Nov 12, 2015 4:30am Nov 12, 2015 4:30am
Your English is certainly a a lot better than my Italian You speak any Russian?

I appreciate what you are trying to do. If the end game is an EA written for MT4 I fear other reasons for failure also, I have a lot of experience in writing EAs both in MQL4 and using Excel VBA, one of the problems is that the brokers do not play fair and they switch off their APIs during volatile moments, also even if the API is active getting execution at the point where a lot of other money will also want it can be very difficult. I wish you luck.. and if I can get a system to work and execute going forward I'll come back here and tell about it
Stop or target...
  • #1,173
  • Nov 25, 2015 1:17pm Nov 25, 2015 1:17pm
At the risk of ridicule, and controversity, may I introduce a sightly different perspective to the business of making money from BO.

BO is gambling. Your only counterparty is the "house" (broker) and the house margin is high.. on simple contracts .. most often 4/5.
Think about it.. in a Casino how many zeros on that wheel?

So you cant win?
Of course you CAN. Its apples and pears.
Yet all the algo/scientific bods will prove with irrefutable statistical data that the broker odds make it impossible.
BS.

Unlike fixed-odds betting.. poker/roulette/dice etc.. market based betting as in BO can be very profitable for a person with real expertise in interpreting the the movements of the underlying asset. With that understanding, and applying tech realtime probability analysis, and a sensible risk management system its entirely possible to engage selectively in very carefully chosen "bets" on the short-term movement of the underlying asset.
Same as a guy with enough expertise, and an extensive background and wide contact base in the Horseracing business can beat the bookies. Happens all the time.

If you dont believe what Im saying here..and you are an experienced PA trader with 5000+ hours STF screentime, try this test. Look at a 1min chart.. EURUSD.. (checking that there is no news imminent) And look at the patterns. Check up the TF ladder so you understand the 1/5/15/30 and above S&R.
If using a simple oscillator, Stoc/RSI/CCI or a Boll.. for guidance, or whatever.. in the next 60 bars (Minutes), ill be amazed if you cant accurately forecast with 60/70% accuracy, at least 5 successive bar closes from. Certainly in terms of being capable of predicting it being above or below the close of the key bar.
If you cant.. then with utmost respect, you need to reassess your skill level, and even career choice.

Its that easy.

Beating the House in BO is NOT impossible. In fact for the experienced trader its a given.
The only issue is not to be too visible or wind up your wins, to hurt the brokers business model.
And that way you become an acceptable part of the system.

And its only possible and made easier because most BO traders have little or no expertise in the underlying.
And they are what make the Broker his money in BO, the money he pays out to you.

iMike has created here a method to signal possible Hi-Prob opportunities on 5m contracts.
From what I see of it, its a good base even for an experienced trader to base an opportunity alert system on.
BUT its a BASE. After that its experience.
My success in BO is more about the signaled contracts I DONT take than with those I do.
  • #1,174
  • Nov 25, 2015 2:12pm Nov 25, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting cliffedwards
At the risk of ridicule, and controversity, may I introduce a sightly different perspective to the business of making money from BO. BO is gambling. Your only counterparty is the "house" (broker) and the house margin is high.. on simple contracts .. most often 4/5. Think about it.. in a Casino how many zeros on that wheel? So you cant win? Of course you CAN. Its apples and pears. Yet all the algo/scientific bods will prove with irrefutable statistical data that the broker odds make it impossible. BS. Unlike fixed-odds betting.. poker/roulette/dice...

Thanks for a great post Cliff, do you know if brokers like IG hedge their binary positions?

MA
Stop or target...
  • #1,175
  • Nov 26, 2015 6:43am Nov 26, 2015 6:43am
Quoting MoralAtheist
{quote} Thanks for a great post Cliff, do you know if brokers like IG hedge their binary positions? MA
Moral Hi..
Great question.. IMHO.

No I dont.

But, I would expect that they do have a risk limitation method to "lay-off" or "hedge" risk where significant Book imbalances in longer TF contracts emerge. It would seem to be a risk management requirement in any stable business model. The shorter TF imbalances present a more difficult problem. Particularly in terms of the speed with which an excessive Book imbalance risk may emerge, and the design of a dynamic cost-effective method of hedge. However I stand in awe at the small insights Ive been given over the years into the genius of the Quant and HF algo designers and financial engineers...
So Im guessing probably yes.
But I expect it is only be exercised where specific Book imbalance risk levels are breached, since on the surface at least it would appear that any such method would be expensive to implement.

Perhaps another member with "inside" knowledge of the available BO business models, may be able to comment with more authority.?
  • #1,176
  • Nov 26, 2015 7:01am Nov 26, 2015 7:01am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Moral Hi.. Great question.. IMHO. No I dont. But, I would expect that they do have a risk limitation method to "lay-off" or "hedge" risk where significant Book imbalances in longer TF contracts emerge. It would seem to be a risk management requirement in any stable business model. The shorter TF imbalances present a more difficult problem. Particularly in terms of the speed with which an excessive Book imbalance risk may emerge, and the design of a dynamic cost-effective method of hedge. However I stand in awe at the small insights Ive been...

I think (hope) so too.. The alternative would be to eject winning accounts, and I do not get the sense that IG is in that business.
Stop or target...
  • #1,177
  • Nov 29, 2015 7:22am Nov 29, 2015 7:22am
Quoting ilMike
Last Update 19 May 2015 Hi everyone, I'm Michael, I'm writing from Italy, so sorry for my bad english. I would like to share my personal strategy. I've did a lot of studies and with a simple methodology(because simple is better), I've created a very reliable strategy. Certainly I can't garantee "ever green" days, but with my strategy I can get an ITM range between 65% and 75%. Rarely, but it happens, it touch 50% of ITM. I want to know what do you think about it and how you could filter out the wrong signals. I named the strategy "The Italian jOB"....

BO system repaints?
  • #1,178
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:19am Jan 17, 2016 4:19am
Quoting elinvertor
{quote} BO system repaints?
Yes..this system can be good..but.....She is repainting! Be careful....
  • #1,179
  • Jan 31, 2016 7:29am Jan 31, 2016 7:29am
hi

does this still work for BO?
  • #1,180
  • Feb 14, 2016 1:23pm Feb 14, 2016 1:23pm
Hi Michael,

I'm following this thread with great interest and it's been a while, since you posted something about the "italian job".

Your last entry concerning the indicators was on May 19th, 2015, your last post on this thread was on Nov 12th, 2015.

What does that mean ?

Are the indis from May 2015 the final result of your studies, or are you sitting in your "lab" and work on an improvement of "italian job" or another amazing strategy to surprise this community here with a big bang some day ?

If the latter is right, I'd be very happy

No, I've not even tested the "older" versions of italian job, so my basic question is, whether the indis from May 2015 are the ones, which I should download for testing.

Thanks in advance. I'm looking forward to reading new messages from you !
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