The Really Useless Thread

st eu has set a 1168 target. uj still wants 114.95, so equities have more room to drop. when eu reaches 1086 or 1115 or even more things may change. have fun until. theses bear norms are met. meanwhile back at the ranch, the eu was able to set up 1.2470. against what techs are telling me about 1.2470. i will attempt to hold long until 1086 or +. no need for me to short eu until, in more than a scalp. until 1086 and probably 1115 normal levels before any - .046x LL. i dont know if 1086 or 1115 will act as R or not enough to reach 1068.. ypp is 1045.. along with 1.2470 valid target it has plenty of attraction to reach 1086 or 1115...
brent oil has a valid 14.10/.11 target

.. Europe going home with MAJOR alerts triggered in US equities for the closing session. We lost 1870.xx intraday and we are flirting with clean sweep today...not holding shorts anymore in Equities (sadly) but losing 1861.xx will unlock a quick trip to final mid term target 1789.xx ...

sisse

Still managing last short term position to 1.108x but I wont trade above that. ... A clean sweep today with a massacre in US Equities will easily trigger the exhaustion leg in the euro. Stops are staggered above the handle and a quick in an out will be too nice and too easy to be true ....

Beyond this last short term leg, there is little to convince me right now to swap sides and not aim for the mid term leg down ...

sisse

[quote=sisse;8692777] --> Changing DOLLAR short term outlook form Neutral to BUY.

...against what?

I see the opposite - seems like it's shifting across.. Gold bull scenarios for 16xx gaining ground, U/J bears for 99/98
E/U for 1.21xx

Hmm...

...mid term mate check 98.5x in DXy for the week. You can see that dollar is still holding the break up and it has pretty much been 'unch' for such massive legs across the board .... plus commodities are going to push even further in favour of dollar ...

sisse

Sisse they pushed out next rate hike expectations like oct. I guess ... if FED be dovish in next meeting(s) will this help to save equities (A bit)?
JPM just push to june from march ...

thinking 0886 part of any move to 1.1086 or higher

equities and uj may have another plan for usd. 96.70 seems wanted on the usdx to me as a normal retrace.. below it, a valid 96.51 target.. that may push eu higher than 1168

--> The DXY looks ready in imminent break up alerts with today close. The failure to take 1.097x and the current close in the Euro is a very strong bearish signal. Without taking fundamentals neither correlated markets I will fully pack shorts even as early as today on the close (ECB next week is a more natural trigger obviously...).

--> More than equities (we got a deep extension of the low but we manage to barely held the close), OIL is playing the party pooper here . 26.xx is naked and that is a major leg that will carry the rest of the board.

 

1. I agree that equities (S&P -> 1789.xx for ref) and Oil ->25.9x are already in play and we are in 'no way back point' now so as long they are the only factors in play Dollar wont break out (or Euro go down).

1. However, don't forget we have ECB back on the table next week and the low price of OIL is going to start weighting heavier everywhere more than RISK. Deflation and poor manufacturing numbers (hello Germany!!!) are screaming shouts for ECB to pull the trigger for even more QE (remember last time they chickened out..but the whole world including the FED will love ECB giving a hand to world markets with more free money) especially with equities getting hammered.

--> In simple words, the pace of the final OIL and Equities legs will define how long and how far we retrace in the Dollar (or go up in the Euro). I keep expecting for one quick exhaustion leg that will be easier to trade as the spike in the euro and uj will be a quick deep in and out. The longer it takes for Oil/equities to go down the choppier and shallow the moves in the euro and uj....

We'll see next week but for this week: Very bullish weekly close in the dollar (imminent break up for the mid term leg) with a softer but bearish Euro weekly close that in pure technical sense is unlocking the lows of 2015 and 1.021x for the first part of the mid term leg...

On the rest, Oil confirmed the break down, Equities barely held but they are sitting in a very feeble short term floor, and 1.108x in the EURO is still naked for a test so not much to do .... same levels, same plays, same all ....

sisse

sisse,

Thanks sisse for the vote of confidence and kind sentiments! I was working a case today; trying to keep the streets safe! I was not able to be at my computer for early part of the day but able to check in. This afternoon, I decided not to gum up this thread with questions as I wanted to wait and see instead. I would give myself a C for today. You will probably grade harder which I respectfully default to since you are far wiser than I.

Scenerio for the day:
At any rate, I entered trade (.0978) per MAP and TIMING with News Flow with decent size lots for me. Didn't want to take the chance of missing the move and just got in. However, I did want to keep a decent amount back to trade .108X if we we went there or for leverage if price moved to .112x. Nevertheless, I watched the market "OIL" mostly prior to news and entered...but,

When said to pick your "poison time" I was hesitant to get in until after NY opening range (10am). I saw the move yesterday and didn't want to be buying where NY may take it higher due to your posts on this could be the day of BIG MOVES and get trapped. I can honestly say I almost talked myself out of the trade with your post thinking I may need to wait, Gator's post and levels (respect his numbers) and Pharm0r. But, I stuck to the MAP and entered.

As I watched OIL, I noticed around 11am (US Eastern time) that EU was stalling and forming like a pennant. Then, when price in OIL broke down towards floor EU didnt move. I thought for sure this would be the RUN UP but nothing. This is when I figured EU was following something else. I was determined OIL was the thing to watch for PANIC ect....but, at 11:30am I believe when you said to watch DXY (Dollar), I knew I was watching the wrong thing as EU was doing the inverse of it.

This is maybe where I made my mistake. I saw price coming back and wanted to bank some profit in case it was going to run to .108X. I exited with about 20 pips profit and did not re-enter due to not knowing what market was going to do since DOLLAR broke down to 98.50. Looking at it now I obviously should have re-entered but to much NOISE to watch and figure out.

I realize my MAP is to SHORT both targets but felt I might get more to trade at higher price and felt market showing signs of this. I might be wrong after watching the DOLLAR HOLD at 98.50 to make a strong showing in afternoon NY market at 99.0x along with S&P recovering and holding 1861.xx to 1876.xx with OIL barley holding the 29.XX handle. However, observing this tells me, as you state as well, that there is another LEG left in OIL and EQUITIES. This is my TIMING. I am really waiting to see this last LEG in both before taking my big position in my MID TERM LEG to .046X or below.

You stated "you are going to be packing shorts at NY close" My question is this to just be in the market in case it doesn't get there? Perhaps, by me not being in the market at this moment shows foolishness.

My Plan is to wait on .1080 and go all IN only if the last LEG has been shown in EQUITIES and OIL. If not, I will get an entry but not ALL in. Regardless if PA goes against me if I go ALL IN, I should be leveraged well to sustain a move to .112X.

Awaiting a lashing or constructive criticism!

Thanks for all your help and patience!

1. 1. You are starting to get in synch with the market and starting to sound like an informed trader rather than a random gambler shooting blindfolded with a machine gun....

IMO, your only and big issue is still about perspective and timing. After following your questions the last few weeks, its clear that you have spent a good chunk of your past trading time in hyperactive mode trading super fast and micro TFs thats making very hard to digest how much trading action is involved is in 2 o 3 weekly candles

 

1. 2. You are talking about a mid term swing map (weeks to months) therefore your decision making time / time for a trade to pan out should be played in the same time perspective.

So if you are trading as an example a H1 chart range (random reference) you cannot expect after 2 M1 bars the trade to pan out and after 5 M1 bars to chicken out//bailout or etc....it doesn't make any sense.

 

1. 3. Definitively if you don't take into account FA or correlated markets there is a strong sell signal in my books from a pure TA point of view. " Without taking fundamentals neither correlated marketsI will fully pack shorts even as early as today on the close (ECB next week is a more natural trigger obviously...)".

Would you trade that TA signal alone and fck FA and the rest of the board? well its up to you and your risk:reward.

Same question I asked you back in December. According to your analysis max risk is 1.112x --> your max profit target is 1.046x so:
Max stop = 150 ticks
Max profit = 510 ticks
Max potential r:r = 3.4 ticks

So again assuming a $1 a tick just for the sake of the calculations.. Are you willing to risk $150 bucks for a potential $510 gain...???.

 

1. 4. Regarding the technical levels. Yes Fibs, Dow theory, etc etc are probably a cleaner way for creating map guidance points. Gator's mofus etc are definitively a lot better tools or at least starting point in your arsenal than 99.99% of the threads in FF system thread section.

However, a few important things:

1. you wont go far or go as far as any other tools if if you don't know the macro direction of the moves. The money is in the direction and timing not in knowing the levels.
2. Fibs and measured retrace tools, etc works mostly when the major direction is consolidating (whatever the TF). When markets start trending, those tools are poor to say the least for actual trading until markets find a solid top or floor. The real consistent money comes riding the big waves not in the consolidation areas...believe me on that one
3. Finally, and i mentioned a couple of times already. The secret of success is not in trading the ultimate tick down or up but trading the level that give you the highest W% with the best R:R and the minimum drawdown. Trading to the micro pippet a fib retrace is not going to make you a better trader. Been smart enough to be in the right direction and the right time is where the money is.
4. You 'want' that you TA potential entries gets overshoot before you enter. The late comers going overboard are the ones that are going to get trapped and spanked on the way back...while in your exits (even if the exact to the pipets fib whatever level is further) you want to be handing your positions to the late comers in the ride and been flat way before the consolidation starts ...
5. Try using price based levels to pinpoint more exact levels and make it yours only your instead of magic lines and levels ...that will allow you to step out of the crows for entering and exiting but always knowing what the majority is seeing. This is super easy to see in action when minions and laggers are using a micro fib retrace tool after a large intraday move of a 80 or more ticks .. in less than a couple of minutes you will have a very decent and exact references where they got screwed on the break, where they are expecting to get in, where the blind top or bottom catcher are going to get smashed, when they are planning to get out and where they will potentially get trap ...

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In any case, the main problem is about TIMING ....you just traded in a few hours a major mid term swing that supposed to take a couple of months to pan out.

Basically in less than 3 hours and half of a Friday afternoon US session without news or reports affecting the pair you GOT IN, TRAIL, GOT OUT ... can you spot the problem on that ??

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sisse

Hello sisse:

Thanks for this excellent post.

What is the lowest time frame you use for trading ?

Borg

Thanks sisse for your analysis and diagnosis of my issues! I concur! Appreciate the useful advice!


"In any case, the main problem is about TIMING ....you just traded in a few hours a major mid term swing that supposed to take a couple of months to pan out.

Basically in less than 3 hours and half of a Friday afternoon US session without news or reports affecting the pair you GOT IN, TRAIL, GOT OUT ... can you spot the problem on that ??"

sisse

Answer: Problem is I am trading a MID-TERM LEG Short and decided to get out when the move went against my entry I have been waiting on for weeks. This MID-TERM LEG has started to almost solidify its move downward and I decided to trad a DAY's session within a weeks or MONTHS move.

I should have stayed in and let it develop. However, in support of me bailing early, I still am seeing this give me the real move to .108X once OIL and EQUITIES make their final last leg in their CORRECTION MOVE. I may miss this move so I will take an entry SUNDAY or MONDAY at my .097X area just in case but low leverage here.

Thanks for the input sisse. I will look for Price Based Levels more on Weekly and Monthly charts. You make alot of sense! Got to get my timing down and believe I am understanding more and more. All the Best!

Very muted imprint on the equity sell-off on the pair compared to August. There was more fear and surprise then and more volatility from China but we've covered broadly similar ranges on DAX, S&P and there's been very little space to work with, trading between levels on Fiber. In my case (was away from PC.), 1.1035 via 1.098 holding another test and I do especially agree about those DXY levels too.

About oil: I'm sure many on the equity side are also tired of jumping every time it breaches the lows. I think if there are signs of good demand/growth data, from wherever at this stage, and provided China's volatility is held in check, perception can shift to the supply side if oil continues to fall, which can decouple it from the equity moves, making a choppy move down more palatable as it further limits Euro/Yen bulls/Equity bears.

Either way, range-bound trading prevails for now in FX unless there's something really explosive around the corner.

...same old story of the last 2 weeks for the European opening. Oil grinding down to new lows on inertia, equities off and Euro one more time failing to break 1.086x and ready, for prolly the last time at these levels, to a test 1.097x with the extension 1.11xx handle (1.108x key level in play).

US markets closed today so tradable short term and slow leg expected for those not already holding. Only a tweet from OPEC can shake the board in OIL so without further surprises, same levels, same trades, same all until the ECB....

sisse

Top of the day people.
I started trading forex Feb. 2013, and till date, I have blown series of accounts. I have tried different strategies, which are okay, in my ittle way. But, I've most times, been taken out by my inability to understand the fundamental sides to trading forex. I marvel at the critical analysis of the price actions and levels, which most times did play out as aforetime analysed.

I want to be consistently successful trading forex, but most times, I find myself losing time after time. I do not know how. I have ended up confused several times while trying to get the fundamental and technical sides in play. How do I understand the strength and weakness of a currency in respect to the other currency, say EUR / USD? How do I analyze the stances of different central banks, say FED, ECB, as it impacts on price levels? How does Interest rates, unemployment claims et al, impact on the overall market environment? NFP, ECB, FED et al, how do I interpret these major news events? I often 'hear' about market sentiment. How do I recognise one when it's in play?

There seems to be a lot of questions to ask, but I'd like to take it step after step.
I will really appreciate your help as always.

Wharley

I'd suggest keep following this thread, it's worth its weight in gold... well you know what I mean, it's very valuable. First things first, try to identify your key mistakes and then focus on technicals/fundamentals. Why does it go wrong? Imho TA of FA has nothing to do with it but rather management (you), either risk management, money management, trade management, whatever you like to call it. Don't underestimate your own psychology. Tackle those issues first (like greed, fear, panic, etc...) and then come back with a fresh mind.

Thanks ExForX,

I have been following ff since mid 2013, until recently that i signed up as a member. I have obtained valuable insights by series of posts made: sisse, maxdoom, paythelimit, gatorinla et al.

... First things first, try to identify your key mistakes and then focus on technicals/fundamentals...
I made mistakes on wrong entry, and I've overcome that. Early exits on trade positions is a challenge. I've not really grasped the technicals/fundamentals.

... but rather management (you), either risk management, money management, trade management, whatever you like ...
Lately, I've been working on my overall management- I don't place trades outside of my what I see/believe. I have also limited myself to not using more than the margin required for each trade positions, relative to the size of my equity.

... and then come back with a fresh mind...
My mind is fresh, especially coming back from the lessons/personal reflections of the series of accounts blown.

I really appreciate this, ExForX