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  • #11,821
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:09pm Jan 14, 2016 11:09pm
Quoting The Fool
I still think oil will shoot for sub $30 in Q1, we'll see.....
/CL down big overnight, dragging on /ES, looking for that breakdown into freefall, lots of room for it in the $20's, Iranian supply (real or rumored) coming online soon, no letup in global supply until the fat lady sings and the wave of defaults and bk's scare the bejeezus out of the US stock market, then who knows, wwIII, wailing and gnashing of teeth, the whole 9 yards. I better reload some long vol trades....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,822
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:37pm Jan 14, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting The Fool
I better reload some long vol trades....
I note TLT IVR rises with share price, so the 1-month (F-M) $133 calls calendar shown gets a 3% iv boost in the P/L model.....30c maybe a bit to pay for essentially a long vol trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-14_2332tlt.png Size: 77 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,823
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:43pm Jan 14, 2016 11:43pm
USO Jul calls, $12.5/13, with a $0.00 mid, will try to fill for < a nickel
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,824
  • Edited Jan 15, 2016 12:15am Jan 14, 2016 11:55pm | Edited Jan 15, 2016 12:15am
Quoting The Fool
USO Jul calls, $12.5/13, with a $0.00 mid, will try to fill for < a nickel
or I should just wait for the crash leg and get in lower call verts later? .... no guarantees
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,825
  • Jan 15, 2016 5:07am Jan 15, 2016 5:07am
Hope you're up and at em this morning.....exciting day in oil!
  • #11,826
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:09am Jan 15, 2016 7:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} took the put side in oil USO $9 put for 4c, closed the above one at 4c lost a little when you factor in comms cost USO Jan 2016 9.000 put 0.04 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(71.43%)
closed half of total contracts for 400%+
  • #11,827
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:14am Jan 15, 2016 7:14am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} will look to TLT march month to see if if the large option buyers decide to close there position, huge positions were taken on the last trading day of the year just gone at 125-130 and 135 calls, the last one interests me the most, once I see those open interest decline then its either a bounce time or consolidating for a while, so far doing well with FXY open positions
got my eye on them been in it since last week of last year as with FXY, hope both of them come together
  • #11,828
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:17am Jan 15, 2016 7:17am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. careful with AAPL ERs calls because with what has happened over in china we may see some bad numbers coming from AAPL, have they really done as well as there stock suggested from last earnings report, I'm looking for aapl to test 85$ but then again who the hell knows
AAPL if it does hit 85 some time soon will be the areas when I look for a bounce in equities in general and a fall back in VIX/TLT
  • #11,829
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:38am Jan 15, 2016 7:38am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} took the put side in oil USO $9 put for 4c, closed the above one at 4c lost a little when you factor in comms cost USO Jan 2016 9.000 put 0.04 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(71.43%)
closed the rest at 25c

0.25 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.20(400.00%)
  • #11,830
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:51am Jan 15, 2016 7:51am
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/1372705...se-for-concern

tell me about it, long vix has been nothing like what it shoulda been, given the market moves....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,831
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:17am Jan 15, 2016 8:17am
Quoting The Fool
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/1372705...se-for-concern tell me about it, long vix has been nothing like what it shoulda been, given the market moves....
yep VIX should be spiking higher than it has on these moves
  • #11,832
  • Jan 15, 2016 9:19am Jan 15, 2016 9:19am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} need that FXY to clear 83, its stalling at current levels as is USD/YEN
FXY has just traded above $83 now need it to close there or above and if it does then looking for a acceleration up to $86 first and ultimately 90 later in the year translating a quicker drop on the USD/YEN pair

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
-NYSEArca
83.01 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.94(1.15%) 17:14 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #11,833
  • Jan 15, 2016 10:38am Jan 15, 2016 10:38am
almost 500 points down in DOW along with over 50 points in the S/P but the VIS and some major large caps like APPLE, AMZN, GOOGLE NFLX not showing the mirror movements to them numbers, maybe a volatile upmove again on Monday
  • #11,834
  • Jan 15, 2016 11:58am Jan 15, 2016 11:58am
I didn't have any short index trades on of any kind to catch these moves - I had mostly anticipated Jan volatility and was set up to catch that with VIX, UVXY, and VXX spreads for Dec and Jan expiries. All of those trades paid, just not as well as I had hoped, as I was looking for UVXY to go into the $50's and ^VIX maybe go >30....weak reaction in vix products has been a running joke - compare to the spike in late August.

Anyway, I can't complain, I made money, now mostly sitting on dry powder, have been throwing change at some short vol spreads as shown above......wondering what might be the scenarios for oil in the coming months?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,835
  • Jan 15, 2016 5:19pm Jan 15, 2016 5:19pm
Quoting The Fool
I didn't have any short index trades on of any kind to catch these moves - I had mostly anticipated Jan volatility and was set up to catch that with VIX, UVXY, and VXX spreads for Dec and Jan expiries. All of those trades paid, just not as well as I had hoped, as I was looking for UVXY to go into the $50's and ^VIX maybe go >30....weak reaction in vix products has been a running joke - compare to the spike in late August. Anyway, I can't complain, I made money, now mostly sitting on dry powder, have been throwing change at some short vol spreads...
Was really hoping for a bit higher so I could put on a couple more of these VXX long put spreads (maybes 19/20-ish) for cheap (between .05 and .10 tops). Market isn't cooperating ... . I'll have another gander if this level holds (it won't for long; it never does).

Not sure what's going on with the VIX product reaction -- seems a bit muted, although it's also possible that there's just plain ass less to cover now that so much $$ has fled the market ... .

Not sure how many of these earnings I'm going to play ... . My tendency is to beg off those if index ETF volatility is high, and we've got that now, so loading up on SPY short strangles/iron condor setups early next week unless we get a volatility crushing whipsaw to the up ... . If that happens, it's into the old TLT ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,836
  • Jan 15, 2016 5:24pm Jan 15, 2016 5:24pm
Pulled the trigger too soon on that USO covered call ... . I'm in it now; we'll see where it goes ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,837
  • Jan 15, 2016 9:40pm Jan 15, 2016 9:40pm
Wonder if those USO July 16 $20 options will fall to .01

Looks like uso will need to hit $7 to get there...
  • #11,838
  • Jan 15, 2016 9:57pm Jan 15, 2016 9:57pm
really I doubt we will see USO $20 again that soon, but $15, or wti roughly $45, maybe so. Most trades I have been doing lately on USO I have been targeting nothing over $15 (and better, $12-13) and ideally I am opening up active trades til Jul or better, Jan '17.....I still have not put out any serious money yet, would like to see what kind of sub $30 dip we can get....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,839
  • Jan 15, 2016 9:59pm Jan 15, 2016 9:59pm
Quoting The Fool
really I doubt we will see USO $20 again that soon, but $15, or wti roughly $45, maybe so. Most trades I have been doing lately on USO I have been targeting nothing over $15 (and better, $12-13) and ideally I am opening up active trades til Jul or better, Jan '17.....I still have not put out any serious money yet, would like to see what kind of sub $30 dip we can get....
Agreed, not expecting USO $20, expecting $15-$16 which correlates with $50 /cl

USO $16 is too expensive
  • #11,840
  • Jan 15, 2016 11:17pm Jan 15, 2016 11:17pm
....re: long oil, don't risk any money you can not afford to lose....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fun...?siteid=yhoof2

"And the oversupply may be even worse than traders and investors acknowledge, because hundreds of thousands of barrels a day of new production are coming online in places like Brazil and Kazakhstan over the next couple of years."

“The piece that’s most overlooked by market participants … is the long-tailed projects, deepwater projects that take three to five years to come online. Those projects are still coming,” he told me. “There were decisions made in 2013 and 2014, the echo of those projects is still coming online this year and next year. 2018 is the first year you don’t see a lot of those projects coming.”
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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