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  • #11,721
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:03pm Jan 7, 2016 5:03pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} this couldn't have started better for FXY will be waiting on where TLT starts when markets open later
will look to TLT march month to see if if the large option buyers decide to close there position, huge positions were taken on the last trading day of the year just gone at 125-130 and 135 calls, the last one interests me the most, once I see those open interest decline then its either a bounce time or consolidating for a while, so far doing well with FXY open positions
  • #11,722
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:34pm Jan 7, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} will look to TLT march month to see if if the large option buyers decide to close there position, huge positions were taken on the last trading day of the year just gone at 125-130 and 135 calls, the last one interests me the most, once I see those open interest decline then its either a bounce time or consolidating for a while, so far doing well with FXY open positions
I'm looking to get short either tlt and sell some puts against it or long tbt and short some calls depedning on how things open. If we can get any sort of rally towards 2000 on the SP or 106/107 on the QQQ's i'll be looking to hop back in short as I closed out my bear vertical puts on DIA and SPY earlier this week and would like to reload some shorts and get some negative delta going. Would absolutely love to get short the Nasdaq on a good bounce. If we can get another sharp downmove on oil may look to short some puts or put on a possible strangle as well. Lets see how China plays out.
  • #11,723
  • Jan 7, 2016 7:02pm Jan 7, 2016 7:02pm
I got in the AAPL Jan5/Feb1 $116 calls calendar for 15c to play right up to ER day. With AAPL dropped hard this week I will double down with the $108's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-07_1858AAPL.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,724
  • Jan 7, 2016 7:16pm Jan 7, 2016 7:16pm
The problem we are going to have with ER trades in the coming cycle is exactly the same as what occurred back in late August - and for pretty much the same reason: China - so the big selloff has run up the iv across the board and if you are looking to exploit iv flux across ER dates you might not get a "normal" scenario - iv may be falling into the ER date for some names....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,725
  • Jan 7, 2016 7:29pm Jan 7, 2016 7:29pm
Quoting The Fool
- iv may be falling into the ER date for some names....
with luck, tho, we will get extraordinary high iv on some ER names - my NFLX kitty is looking good....the fear w/ NFLX is it could put on an outsized bull move in a broad market rally
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-07_1927nflx.png Size: 85 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,726
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:12am Jan 8, 2016 7:12am
Quoting The Fool
I got in the AAPL Jan5/Feb1 $116 calls calendar for 15c to play right up to ER day. With AAPL dropped hard this week I will double down with the $108's
trying to fill $104 calls for 21c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,727
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:42am Jan 8, 2016 9:42am
You got me looking at these USO $20 calls for Jan '18

Waiting for oil of course, but those are only going to get cheaper....currently .48, I'd say $20 is doable in two years.....$15 more so, about $1 right now

Need to chart it when I get home this evening
  • #11,728
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:07pm Jan 8, 2016 12:07pm
Quoting Pharm0r
You got me looking at these USO $20 calls for Jan '18 Waiting for oil of course, but those are only going to get cheaper....currently .48, I'd say $20 is doable in two years.....$15 more so, about $1 right now Need to chart it when I get home this evening
IV is high on USO making buying expensive, one could buy the long term 15 or 20$ call for Jan 18 and keep selling short term options to reduce risk by collecting monthly premium if your premise is long oil, for me I only see more down on oil until china hits bottom whenever that maybe, keeping a eye on DOW transportation may help and lining up all the IV's
  • #11,729
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:13pm Jan 8, 2016 12:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to fill $104 calls for 21c
T.F. careful with AAPL ERs calls because with what has happened over in china we may see some bad numbers coming from AAPL, have they really done as well as there stock suggested from last earnings report, I'm looking for aapl to test 85$ but then again who the hell knows
  • #11,730
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:41pm Jan 8, 2016 12:41pm
VIX and TLT are looking like more heavy selling to come next week if FXY can close above 82.50 that will be more yen strength then that will be the three leading the way for me
  • #11,731
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:46pm Jan 8, 2016 12:46pm
AAPL will do Ok as a defensive holding if the market puts in a big slide, but my trades are just to catch a ramp up in the iv until ER day.....I do need AAPL to stay put or come up though

I did fill that $104 calls calendar......how you gonna bid up FB and dump AAPL? omg, at least Apple makes something
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,732
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:52pm Jan 8, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
AAPL will do Ok as a defensive holding if the market puts in a big slide, but my trades are just to catch a ramp up in the iv until ER day.....I do need AAPL to stay put or come up though
AAPL not that far from the august highs in IV now, this may well be the problem this earnings season but that's not to say they can go even higher
  • #11,733
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:54pm Jan 8, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
VIX and TLT are looking like more heavy selling to come next week if FXY can close above 82.50 that will be more yen strength then that will be the three leading the way for me
I am holding on to one 10-lot UVXY bfly - Jan $45/50/55 calls - will let it run til next week - cost me 10c & is worth about 50c now, could make $1.50 next week if vix keeps running....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,734
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:00pm Jan 8, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
You got me looking at these USO $20 calls for Jan '18
stay tuned, I will be on USO like stink on a monkey, lots of ways to set up spread trades on that to catch oil rebounding to $45 by Q2 and beyond....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,735
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:02pm Jan 8, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting The Fool
AAPL will do Ok as a defensive holding if the market puts in a big slide, but my trades are just to catch a ramp up in the iv until ER day.....I do need AAPL to stay put or come up though I did fill that $104 calls calendar......how you gonna bid up FB and dump AAPL? omg, at least Apple makes something
didn't AAPL announce there cutting production down as much as 30% in china on iphones due to mounting of unsold units that's a fair amount. Don't get me wrong its still makes a shit load of money
  • #11,736
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:04pm Jan 8, 2016 1:04pm
yep AAPL could turn to shit just like anything else.....I'm not likely gonna chase it any further...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,737
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:11pm Jan 8, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} stay tuned, I will be on USO like stink on a monkey, lots of ways to set up spread trades on that to catch oil rebounding to $45 by Q2 and beyond....


glad to hear it. will be watching learning and playing as well
  • #11,738
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:31pm Jan 8, 2016 4:31pm
looked around for a ER play that looks good for a R R and found GMCR, great mover but has the right IV well 2 of the 3, I look for when trading this way its not till FEB 2-8.
March expiration will be the month, just need to analyse the charts and some fundies before I put in the order next week

current price

Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (GMCR)
-NasdaqGS
90.29 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.14(0.16%) 8 Jan 21:00
|After Hours: : 90.28 https://s.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/ba...nt-1093278.png 0.01 (0.01%) 23:31
  • #11,739
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:58pm Jan 8, 2016 4:58pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} The stock is on my "nothing to do there" list... I spent many hours just gathering data how hundreds of stocks behaved on ER's in the past... I basically divided them all in 3 categories -> stays in estimated move, wild ones, and good for nothing (for various reasons, like no liquidity, bad strikes, no vol, no move and so on)... I will look for it. Some of the stocks now have improved options, compared to 2014. I can't remember now any particular example, though.
I ended up passing on what little earnings plays were available this week due to scrambling around with this down turn. Some I've played in the past and you get right up on them, the volatility doesn't pop, and it just isn't worth it. With this increased volatility in the broader market, I'm turning my attention to broader market plays (tons of fun to be had there). Not sure when this down turn will peter out, but I'm looking to buy the dip with short put verts once this downturn seems to be starting to peter out (thought it would today with those bomber NFP numbers).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,740
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:11pm Jan 8, 2016 5:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} stay tuned, I will be on USO like stink on a monkey, lots of ways to set up spread trades on that to catch oil rebounding to $45 by Q2 and beyond....
Dipped my dick in that honeypot on Thursday's open when WTI broke the 2009 low. I went covered call on it with the Feb 19th 11 shortie. Unfortunately, covered call isn't the way to go for one of those multiple bagger moves. You can naturally continue to try to roll out your shortie for additional credit after price breaks it (further reducing your cost basis somewhat), but the IV collapses in a protracted up move, so you'll collect less premium in that event. Ideally, the best time to roll after a break of your shortie is on an intratrade vol pop, but sometimes I'm just not paying as much attention as I should to that ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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