The Really Useless Thread | Page 6934 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,661
  • Jan 15, 2016 4:49am Jan 15, 2016 4:49am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Since the ECB began its QE, the EURUSD, which previously had a positive correlation with equities, has had a negative one (on a weekly chart anyway). Depending on which explanation you believe, this happened either because Euro was the funding currency (people borrowed Euros and bought stocks) or because big hedge funds bought the DAX and hedged the trades by selling EURUSD. (I've read both). So if equities are going to have a correction, what should happen to the EURUSD as those trades unwind? (Solid bars are EURUSD, hollow bars are DAX)...
Hmm... Point to be noted .... Thankxxxx a lot
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,662
  • Jan 15, 2016 5:47am Jan 15, 2016 5:47am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I have been reading all posts but technically I don't see any valid reason for d move .... ...
Technically in the Euro we haven't even move from the range this week... we are trading chop all week long. On the fundamental side, simple flows as discussed the last 2 weeks. Oil panic -> Equities losing ground -> Euro moving via risk.

OIL breach down this morning is scary because is basically sitting on air screaming "I am going down deep and fast" waiting for the US to open before we actually move. The leg in play is not your average move down, the leg has the potential of a LEHMAN style leg and it will have a major impact across the board if its make on panic.

I honestly can tell you that today is potentially in play the most dangerous and amazing trading leg we have witnessed in the last 8 years .... Would it pan out in panic mode? ...dont know but any sane trader is just glued to OIL today as the memories of Lehman's and Co are still fresh and nobody wants to be the sucker get caught with the pants down ...

Important inflation numbers coming and a blow combo with risk could trigger an earthquake...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,663
  • Jan 15, 2016 5:59am Jan 15, 2016 5:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Technically in the Euro we haven't even move from the range this week... we are trading chop all week long. On the fundamental side, simple flows as discussed the last 2 weeks. Oil panic -> Equities losing ground -> Euro moving via risk. OIL breach down this morning is scary because is basically sitting on air screaming "I am going down deep and fast" waiting for the US to open before we actually move. The leg in play is not your average move down, the leg has the potential of a LEHMAN style leg and it will have a major impact...
Let's c .... Actually I m bored of holding and waiting from the last October ... And some way beyond... Waiting for a crack of 2015 low.... Hope it comes soon ... And all d best to all for upcoming tsunami...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,664
  • Jan 15, 2016 6:03am Jan 15, 2016 6:03am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Let's c .... Actually I m bored of holding and waiting from the last October ... And some way beyond... Waiting for a crack of 2015 low.... Hope it comes soon ... And all d best to all for upcoming tsunami...

lol mate oil has lost -26% of its value this year ALONE !!!!.... we have been averaging +/- 5% legs like knife in butter ...not sure what you are trading but even if you trade OIL in micro leverage CDF you will know HOW BIG are those moves .....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,665
  • Jan 15, 2016 6:09am Jan 15, 2016 6:09am
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol mate oil has lost -26% of its value this year ALONE !!!!.... we have been averaging +/- 5% legs like knife in butter ...not sure what you are trading but even if you trade OIL in micro leverage CDF you will know HOW BIG are those moves ..... sisse
I was talking abt eu pair ... Oil was the best and d minimum for oil is 24/ barrel in my book... let's hope my tp gets hit...I mainly trade eu ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,666
  • Jan 15, 2016 6:34am Jan 15, 2016 6:34am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I was talking abt eu pair ... Oil was the best and d minimum for oil is 24/ barrel in my book... let's hope my tp gets hit...I mainly trade eu ...
EurUsd tracks the direction of oil pretty closely on the higher timeframes. The question I am thinking about is what will EURUSD do if oil bottoms out this year somewhere between 24 and 14. (And, also, why is it diverging from that now?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oileuro.jpg Size: 595 KB
  • #138,667
  • Jan 15, 2016 6:38am Jan 15, 2016 6:38am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} EurUsd tracks the direction of oil pretty closely on the higher timeframes. The question I am thinking about is what will EURUSD do if oil bottoms out this year somewhere between 24 and 14. (And, also, why is it diverging from that now?) {image}
For eu a maximum I see is 1.02xxx ... Not below that what's ur concern
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,668
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:03am Jan 15, 2016 7:03am
Where are big players buy and sell button ... Please someone go and press it ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,669
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:18am Jan 15, 2016 7:18am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} For eu a maximum I see is 1.02xxx ... Not below that what's ur concern
Well, if I look at that oil/eurusd chart, it looks to me like the Euro showed reversal patterns and turned at the tops and bottoms before oil did (triple bottom 2002, double top 2008, double bottom in 2009, double bottom in 2012, H & S in 2014. And right now, we know that oil can't keep declining at the rate it has been for the last two years and the first month of this year for the rest of this year, or it will reach zero sometime this year, which isn't possible. And also right now EURUSD is diverging from oil. So I'm wondering if it's preparing to turn (or maybe just to chop around here for the rest of the year) in advance, in anticipation of oil bottoming out this year. It's hard to see oil turning up this year with all the supply waiting to come on line but if China's baby policy kicks in and restarts growth in China, (or if the Fed is correct and the rise in interest rates reflects a real improvement in US growth),I can see that happening next year, and then presumably EURUSD would turn with it.
  • #138,670
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:24am Jan 15, 2016 7:24am
Eyes on reports. Simple and direct impact for NY opening range. Softer numbers just add fuel to stronger dollar that obviously toda translate in one more blow to oil and a full blow risk leg....

More importantly for today is US reaction to the break down in OIL if NY play ball and raise the bid we are going for sharp legs across the board.

Not much to do but wait to see how it pans out.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,671
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:27am Jan 15, 2016 7:27am
Yeeeeeeehawwwwww
Attached Image
  • #138,672
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:31am Jan 15, 2016 7:31am
Inline inflation but massive blow again in manufacturing..... Watch out for OIL 26 in the upcoming sessions...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,673
  • Jan 15, 2016 7:49am Jan 15, 2016 7:49am
Quoting hathor
https://youtu.be/n_irMKDW7y4 Careful! -<<Goa>>- Enjoy! Plan is the same for me, good luck mates:{quote} {quote}
Lets see what we get today.
Hope everybody is in the right train.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,674
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:12am Jan 15, 2016 8:12am
...and I will take ...Clearing short term Euro 2nd target after the test 1.097x. Also right on time before the open, US equities testing those couple of ticks that left behind yesterday. We are pretty much set for both legs but more and SUPER importantly:

--> Changing DOLLAR short term outlook form Neutral to BUY.

For those tracking the EURO (I know they are few) we are officially entering in the traditional CHOOSE YOUR POISON time.

... GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,675
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:23am Jan 15, 2016 8:23am
Quoting sisse
...and I will take ...Clearing short term Euro 2nd target after the test 1.097x. Also right on time before the open, US equities testing those couple of ticks that left behind yesterday. We are pretty much set for both legs but more and SUPER importantly: --> Changing DOLLAR short term outlook form Neutral to BUY. For those tracking the EURO (I know they are few) we are officially entering in the traditional CHOOSE YOUR POISON time. ... GL all sisse
Missed my sell limit bloody hell .... Just a couple of ticks ... Still see a test of .09899
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,676
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:35am Jan 15, 2016 8:35am
Quoting sisse
CHOOSE YOUR POISON time.
my poison would feel better after testing 1.1037
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,677
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:35am Jan 15, 2016 8:35am
if today closes above 1.0930 we enter bullish mid term. buy above 1.0880 target 1.1100
As Above, So Below
  • #138,678
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:42am Jan 15, 2016 8:42am
[quote=sisse;869277 For those tracking the EURO (I know they are few) we are officially entering in the traditional CHOOSE YOUR POISON time. ... GL all sisse[/quote]
​Dear Sisse,
​thanks a lot for your great analysis,but english language is not native for people like me, I can not understand some of your codes like this: CHOOSE YOUR POISON TIME
  • #138,679
  • Jan 15, 2016 8:54am Jan 15, 2016 8:54am
Quoting Pharm0r
Yeeeeeeehawwwwww {image}
Ha ha ha nice picture
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,680
  • Jan 15, 2016 9:50am Jan 15, 2016 9:50am
...and that was pretty much it for the US morning session. Only thing pending like all week long is OIL tripping further down after Europe goes home.

Whatever the case in OIL, we are turning the page in currencies given that the break in OIL is done and gone. We are entering in ECB / FED mode for the rest of the month.

VERY important levels in play in the Dollar for the W close that will have implications as far as the end of Q1/ beginning Q2 2016 if they hold the ECB/FED Combo. DXY holding 98.5x will trigger mid term imminent break up alerts which will have implications in ALL PAIRS and CROSSES across the the FX board ....so all eyes on Dollar starting from the European Close...

Quoting Arshamv
{quote} ... I can not understand some of your codes like this: CHOOSE YOUR POISON TIME
Meaning: Its time to start making a decision. Either you go long or short. This is an area to track and make decisions not just sit and wait....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
8 traders viewing now