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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,621
  • Jan 14, 2016 5:41am Jan 14, 2016 5:41am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hello USDbear, the best superb scenario for us (me) would be this and it may be evolving actually as equities are loosing again: quick leg to 1790,xx on SP500, Oil quick capitulation to 26, DAX retests the previous bottom (maybe does diverged lower (2nd) bottom, limited decline when compared to SP500), EU retests the highs (the extension possible) and Bunds overshoot the 161,xx lvl + gold reaches 113x; all simulataniously ideally! It may be crazy risky but I feel that if we get the state described above, it is gonna be the time to load mid...
Indeed chester, those are the main drivers for bunds.
Although I argued 161 as my stop, all those things coming together (which I still consider not very likely) could reach the level.
Maybe should give it a bit more room in current panic environment.
Thanks for your considerations!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,622
  • Edited 6:05am Jan 14, 2016 5:51am | Edited 6:05am
Quoting tomlee
{quote} Hello Sisse, How did you defined this level (1911.xx) !!! ? Big thanks for your valuable inputs Nice day to everybody.
If you have been following for a while. It got unlocked after the FED hikes when we set the 2100.xx high and it comes from the rejection of the August selloff. If you are referring for the fast leg yesterday, it was basic TA. Profit Taking on Friday and we flipped on inertia after yst opening range....

I hope it helps

Quoting USD-Bear
panic again, BUND's not looking good atm BUND D1: {image}
Actually thats what I have been waiting for since last month. We are finally properly testing 160.xx. ....Choose your "poison time" in my books. I know you already chose yours ...I will join you very soon.


-------- ------------- ----------



A very active European session. Stock on the back foot, Oil again on the brink, Treasuries ticking high and Dollar flirting to trigger imminent MAJOR break up alerts but for now until NY: All eyes on the BOE.

---> On the fundamental side:

Zero chances for rates change, however expecting a dovish BOE with slightly negative tone in the economic outlook. Anything different will trigger RMT in Sterling.

--> On the technical side:

Cable sitting in KEY mid and long term levels. 1.437x is major momentum line to the downside. Dovish BOE may push dollar even higher pushing the DXY for a break up and will unlock a rather quick leg to 1.386x with strong intermediate stops @ 1.413x.

To the other side, only profit taking for an easy ride 1.464x with strong intermedia stop 1.451x/

--> for the actual flows:
Simple and direct flow expected 1.437x -> 1.464x with intermedia stop 1.4456. To the other side, just inertia play so basically just sell and hold ...

-------- ------------- ----------

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,623
  • Jan 14, 2016 6:02am Jan 14, 2016 6:02am
no hikes...inline with expectations outlook...slightly dovish via the gradual hikes cycle ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,624
  • Jan 14, 2016 6:39am Jan 14, 2016 6:39am
A very gloomy ECB Minutes ...nothing we didn't know just a quick reminder why ECB is on full QE mode with negative rates for those perma Bulls ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,625
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:24am Jan 14, 2016 7:24am
Quoting sisse
no hikes...inline with expectations outlook...slightly dovish via the gradual hikes cycle ... sisse
Definitely marginally more dovish from the MPC compared to the November Inflation Report, but this was pretty much expected by the markets in the build-up to this meeting. So no surprises or anything new there, I would say.
  • #138,626
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:24am Jan 14, 2016 7:24am
Quoting sisse
A very gloomy ECB Minutes ...nothing we didn't know just a quick reminder why ECB is on full QE mode with negative rates for those perma Bulls .... sisse
They're killing my buzz man
  • #138,627
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:31am Jan 14, 2016 7:31am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} Definitely marginally more dovish from the MPC compared to the November Inflation Report, but this was pretty much expected by the markets in the build-up to this meeting. So no surprises or anything new there, I would say.
Yeap pretty much agree, Inline with expectations / slightly dovish tone confirmed for hikes pace but as you well point out, the dovish tone on rates was widely expected too ...

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} They're killing my buzz man
je je je ,... well we are going for a interesting NY session that may cheer you up...

Equities holding the min break on the opening range unlocks final short term target in equities and they will carry the Euro to complete the leg. For the way markets are aligning today we are going to set the LOW of this month in Equities and the HIGH of this month in the EURO this week.

Let's see how it goes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,628
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:35am Jan 14, 2016 7:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap pretty much agree, Inline with expectations / slightly dovish tone confirmed for hikes pace but as you well point out, the dovish tone on rates was widely expected too ... {quote} je je je ,... well we are going for a interesting NY session that may cheer you up... Equities holding the min break on the opening range unlocks final short term target in equities and they will carry the Euro to complete the leg. For the way markets are aligning today we are going to set the LOW of this month in Equities and the HIGH of this month in the...
Tomorrow will be a busy day, doesn't align to well with EU bulls either

I've got some room to play with, so here's to holding the faith
  • #138,629
  • Jan 14, 2016 8:35am Jan 14, 2016 8:35am
Some dovish comments from the normally hawkish St Louis Fed President, James Bullard.


“Nevertheless, with renewed declines in crude oil prices in recent weeks, the associated decline in market-based inflation expectations measures is becoming worrisome.”

https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-rele...-and-inflation
  • #138,630
  • Jan 14, 2016 9:19am Jan 14, 2016 9:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap pretty much agree, Inline with expectations / slightly dovish tone confirmed for hikes pace but as you well point out, the dovish tone on rates was widely expected too ... {quote} je je je ,... well we are going for a interesting NY session that may cheer you up... Equities holding the min break on the opening range unlocks final short term target in equities and they will carry the Euro to complete the leg. For the way markets are aligning today we are going to set the LOW of this month in Equities and the HIGH of this month in the...
whats the final short term target in equities? i know uv got Q1 target from around 1790s...
  • #138,631
  • Jan 14, 2016 9:49am Jan 14, 2016 9:49am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bought E against U. If there will be no sign of bull, than will wait till 1.07939 (also a marked level from previous affair).
New daily low, bought it.

1.07939 is next if this level gives up.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,632
  • Jan 14, 2016 10:27am Jan 14, 2016 10:27am
Quoting sisse
...Euro chopping around all day long but more important US equities losing foot again intraday and alerts triggered for the closing session. 1911.xx [check] failing to hold unlock a quick leg [tradable too] to test the current lows [check] with ext 1870.xx [check...technically failed by 5 ticks]before inflation numbers on Friday...
Very strong opening range in equites flirting to form a short term bottom till the next FOMC. There are a few ticks left open to the low side but pretty much we are set for wide chop zone short term until the next FOMC. Outlook update coming later today ...

Euro just carry from the the moves in Equities shaking out all soft and weak long hands from the map. In the Euro tracking the all week long 1.086x for the European close, in practice nothing new so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,633
  • Edited 10:51am Jan 14, 2016 10:39am | Edited 10:51am
Still waiting.......thought Equities and Oil might drive EU to .097X ext .108x this week and more specifically before Fri. However, lost some of its steam to get there. Close but no cigar as they say.

However, I am trading my MAP and TIMING to go with my R:R. No trades as of yet. Not sure if EU will form support at .0840 for another attempt to .097X. Looks like London wants the ROLL close to .0860 as sisse pointed out.

Eyes on GBP/USD .436X as this is the first time in 4 years I have looked at this pair. Very difficult to trade for me. But, as sisse pointed out this may be one of the best currencies to to trade this year. Waiting and watching. Looking to SHORT.
  • #138,634
  • Jan 14, 2016 10:47am Jan 14, 2016 10:47am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Very strong opening range in equites flirting to form a short term bottom till the next FOMC. There are a few ticks left open to the low side but pretty much we are set for wide chop zone short term until the next FOMC. Outlook update coming later today ... Euro just carry from the the moves in Equities shaking out all soft and weak long hands from the map. In the Euro tracking the all week long 1.086x for the European close, in practice nothing new so same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
Until I came across you, I never knew the meaning of weak hands.

I think the best thing that has ever happened to me was not being one of those "weak hands" aka shorting/longing in the middle, and/or being over leveraged.

there was a time not long ago when that candle would have cost me my account
  • #138,635
  • Jan 14, 2016 10:57am Jan 14, 2016 10:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Until I came across you, I never knew the meaning of weak hands. I think the best thing that has ever happened to me was not being one of those "weak hands" aka shorting/longing in the middle, and/or being over leveraged. there was a time not long ago when that candle would have cost me my account


I second that Pharm0r. What candle (HR chart and LONDON ROLL?)are you referring to or is this a play on words? Thanks.
  • #138,636
  • Jan 14, 2016 10:58am Jan 14, 2016 10:58am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I second that Pharm0r. What candle (HR chart and LONDON ROLL?)are you referring to or is this a play on words? Thanks.
the last hour candle on eu
  • #138,637
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:04am Jan 14, 2016 11:04am
Thanks. It closed at .0839. How does this candle assist you? I am trying to see what insight you may have regarding the 10 to 11am (US time-East) close. I know this candle took me off guard today as I saw PA heading to test .097X but that did not pan out and went in the opposite direction.

Thanks
  • #138,638
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:07am Jan 14, 2016 11:07am
Quoting IMARICH1
Still waiting.......thought Equities and Oil might drive EU to .097X ext .108x this week and more specifically before Fri. However, lost some of its steam to get there. Close but no cigar as they say. However, I am trading my MAP and TIMING to go with my R:R. No trades as of yet. Not sure if EU will form support at .0840 for another attempt to .097X. Looks like London wants the ROLL close to .0860 as sisse pointed out. Eyes on GBP/USD .436X as this is the first time in 4 years I have looked at this pair. Very difficult to trade for me. But, as sisse...
Yeah, I think the play was proven right, just not the breadth of the playing field with no help from oil at all (it's trying to jump the 31 handle but let's not say anything yet.) and into a rather healthy European equity market. They joined the sell-off from the US, China but held again pretty easily.

We're right in between your 97 and 1.073 (and the quarterly low at 1.080.) so not really ideal for that mid-term map but I guess you can wait until some of the big events to try and formulate your plays/just play between those smaller ranges.
  • #138,639
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:00pm Jan 14, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting IMARICH1
....I know this candle took me off guard today as I saw PA heading to test .097X but that did not pan out and went in the opposite direction. Thanks
The more you get use to see markets as a whole (well depending on what you are trading 'the whole' will change its components ...) the less chances you will get caught in a WTF moment...whatever the TF and style of trading ...

A couple of practical tips, depending on your actual trading setup.

--> Try having an independent workspace with major markets always visible (S&P, Dollar, OIL, GOLD, etc) either on a second or third screen or in small space in your main workspace.

--> Alerts and Alarms in your trading/charting platform are not just for decoration !!!. Use them especially in main markets you don't actively trade but you want to check when they reach KEY AREAS at KET TIMES.

--> Third, the opening range in NY is still the most important time for trading worldwide. You MUST KNOW what is going on even if you are not really trading anything that moment or equities in general.

For example today, you knew that US Equities were in control intraday of the currency board (euro/usd is treading water this week as you clearly pointed out in your previous posts). Today we have, honestly a classic opening range: breach the lows (literally a textbook case for newbies of a 'bear trap' in the opening range).

You don't need to trade or go in details in the S&P, if you would have just quickly glance the strong bounce in minutes (right on time after the opening range) on the breach of lows and rejection you would have known how the soft intraday long bulls in the Euro were going to get sweep without even having to glance at a intraday chart

.... Obviously is not always that simple and easy but when you know that there is no movers in the week neither reports in play in the EURO(in your instrument) in a light week that depends on Oil and Equities is the perfect environment to get a grasp of a more well-rounded approach to trading than simply jumping in an out on a squiggly line changing from red to green ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,640
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:29pm Jan 14, 2016 12:29pm
Quoting sisse
Very strong opening range in equites flirting to form a short term bottom till the next FOMC. There are a few ticks left open to the low side but pretty much we are set for wide chop zone short term until the next FOMC. Outlook update coming later today ...
...and that was pretty much it for Equities. Eyes on 1925.xx for the closing session in case of a short squeeze but more importantly:

--> Changing short term outlook from last week Dec in US Equities from SELL to NEUTRAL (wide chop) until further data (FOMC prolly).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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