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  • #361
  • Jan 12, 2016 11:12am Jan 12, 2016 11:12am
Got an afternoon short running on EURGBP. Today's zone right at the day high. We closed back below the low and printed a nice ND. Pending at the low trigger on the next bar and away we went. Will trail down to the H of yesterday's (if we get there).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPiM15.png Size: 43 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #362
  • Jan 12, 2016 11:25am Jan 12, 2016 11:25am
Hi Pres
I think some people were looking for visual examples of a Pres2BR. I think I found one (didnt trade it sadly).
Are you able to confirm it meets the requirements of your reversal criteria?
Cheers
Gav
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-01-12 at 17.22.59.png Size: 43 KB
Volume at Volume
  • #363
  • Edited 7:16pm Jan 12, 2016 12:36pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quoting VSAgav
Hi Pres I think some people were looking for visual examples of a Pres2BR. I think I found one (didnt trade it sadly). Are you able to confirm it meets the requirements of your reversal criteria? Cheers Gav {image}
Looks bang on Gav. That was a nice one and at NYO to boot (and I mean right at NYO). Closed fairly tight to the 50% level so I think one could have gotten 1:1 for sure before the H which as we can see did offer some temporary resistance. As we can see there was some action up there at the H as the sellers were absorbed as the buyers filled their orders and up we went.

This is where we need to trust the zones and our read of the PA into the zone. For many this pair would have looked primed for a sell at that zone H. Think about what the uninformed all see.

  1. We are below the MA
  2. We just made a LL and a new L for the day
  3. Back up to that H looks like nothing more than a retrace that is making LH
  4. 2 UT bars (long upper wicks) both of which closed below the MA

This pair had all the makings of a downtrend and to the naked eye looked weak as hell. But did we go down? Nope after a series of ACC within the buyers half of the zone we went up! Really is lovely stuff when you think about the psychology of it all.

Those 3 bars that formed at the H are another favorite pattern of mine that was pointed out to me by an old friend named Aldo who is married to trading GBPUSD. You would not believe it if I told you how reliable that pattern is and it shows up quite often. I know that that wasn't he point of this reply but I saw it on there so had to comment because people will benefit from that pattern if they learn to spot and trade it (at the right location of course).

If anyone wants to know what is so special about those 3 bars I will cover it more later but first I'd like to open the floor to others to see if they can come up with what makes that pattern so great and again the trading psychology behind it. To clarify it's bars 4, 5 and 6 if you start counting after the second bar of the pres78 2BR.

Man that was longer than planned... when I start typing it's tough to stop sometimes. I have to learn to just say yes and no more often .

Yes Gav that pattern meets my rules. There that's better!

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #364
  • Jan 12, 2016 12:46pm Jan 12, 2016 12:46pm
I just updated post one giving a link under the pres78 2BR section to VSAgav's great chart example.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #365
  • Jan 12, 2016 2:05pm Jan 12, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting pres78
I just updated post one .....
Im honoured! Thanks and glad it was correct.
Volume at Volume
  • #366
  • Jan 12, 2016 5:17pm Jan 12, 2016 5:17pm
Seems to have been some decent GBP buying across the board. Most GBP pairs seem to be setting up for at least at day of GBP strength tomorrow. We will see however if things change over night based on where we stand at LO.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #367
  • Jan 12, 2016 9:16pm Jan 12, 2016 9:16pm
Quoting pres78
Does anyone have any thoughts on this or experience with trailing and how they manage it? What worries me the most about making the change (in addition to the impact on my trade history) is what TF would I use for the must close rule. As we all know a close above/below a level on a lower TF doesn't always equal to a close above/below the level in the higher TF (AKA UT and SO or tests etc...)... That is the conundrum.
Back in 2010~2011 I spent a lot of time on writing EA's. It never went anywhere in terms of profitability. However, EA writing and testing generated some useful information on trading statistics. In some EA's I used a trailing strategy to manage the trades. It works this way, when price hits 1R, EA closes half the lot size, move SL to breakeven, if price hits 2R, it moves SL to 1R, and on and on. And when it generates an opposite trade signal, it will close the trade. However, after repeated backtesting I found that, the trailing strategy is lousy. The result is worse than closing the trade at fixed TP of 1:1 or when the trade signal turns opposite.

Here I'd like to suggest that, you add some simple mechanical trading strategy to your EA. Change the trailing features , backtest it and compare the results. Then you may have a better insight.

PS.
Back in 2010, muti-TF EA's cannot be backtested. I'm not sure about the new version of MQL. So i'm not sure if the above will work with your MTF approach.
  • #368
  • Jan 13, 2016 1:12am Jan 13, 2016 1:12am
Quoting pres78
{quote} If anyone wants to know what is so special about those 3 bars I will cover it more later but first I'd like to open the floor to others to see if they can come up with what makes that pattern so great and again the trading psychology behind it. To clarify it's bars 4, 5 and 6 if you start counting after the second bar of the pres78 2BR. Man that was longer than planned... when I start typing it's tough to stop sometimes. I have to learn to just say yes and no more often . Yes Gav that pattern meets my rules. There that's better!
First of all thanks for starting this journal and letting us join and learn and only pure VZA. No one showed interest in this pattern you talked about until now so i jumped in please shed some light. for me that 3 bars pattern was inverse of Pres2BR where 4th was close above High of zone with healthy volume bar 5 made higher high and close well below 50% of 4th bar. visually look like Pres2BR but volume was very high compered to 4th bar. so something is not right good amount of orders from outside (MFI ). next 6th bar close up on low volume compared to 5th that buyers are there. that is my nonsense read on that. Waiting for Exact and Correct Psychology Behind That.
Long Live Sir Pres78 (Jason)
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #369
  • Jan 13, 2016 6:36am Jan 13, 2016 6:36am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Back in 2010~2011 I spent a lot of time on writing EA's. It never went anywhere in terms of profitability. However, EA writing and testing generated some useful information on trading statistics. In some EA's I used a trailing strategy to manage the trades. It works this way, when price hits 1R, EA closes half the lot size, move SL to breakeven, if price hits 2R, it moves SL to 1R, and on and on. And when it generates an opposite trade signal, it will close the trade. However, after repeated backtesting I found that, the trailing strategy...
​This EA is only for trade management and is not to make decisions about closing (or entering). It either closes at my fixed TP or once trailed out. I can decide whether to close half also (which happens at 1:1) or can take half off at anytime. I can also move the SL my 1R at anytime manually with the EA. Not looking to make it any more intelligent as that is not the intent of this EA just trying to see what the best trailing method might be. It works fine now as is just started noticing certain things that made me question if things should be tweaked.

Thanks for the reply!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #370
  • Jan 13, 2016 10:05am Jan 13, 2016 10:05am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Back in 2010~2011 I spent a lot of time on writing EA's. It never went anywhere in terms of profitability. However, EA writing and testing generated some useful information on trading statistics. In some EA's I used a trailing strategy to manage the trades. It works this way, when price hits 1R, EA closes half the lot size, move SL to breakeven, if price hits 2R, it moves SL to 1R, and on and on. And when it generates an opposite trade signal, it will close the trade. However, after repeated backtesting I found that, the trailing strategy...

Would you be able to code an indicator for the previous days high volume hourly bar? basically just automating the high/low/50 lines.
  • #371
  • Jan 13, 2016 10:13am Jan 13, 2016 10:13am
Quoting pres78
Got an afternoon short running on EURGBP. Today's zone right at the day high. We closed back below the low and printed a nice ND. Pending at the low trigger on the next bar and away we went. Will trail down to the H of yesterday's (if we get there). {image}
Did you create a new fib for he 15min intraday? I dont see that setup on that pair based on hourly.
  • #372
  • Jan 13, 2016 4:56pm Jan 13, 2016 4:56pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
{quote} Did you create a new fib for he 15min intraday? I dont see that setup on that pair based on hourly.
​Jan 12th highest volume 1hr zone that day which printed right at the days high as noted. See the two charts, the white fib.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPiH1.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPiM15.png Size: 59 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #373
  • Jan 13, 2016 5:00pm Jan 13, 2016 5:00pm
EURGBP today the zones from both the 12th and 11th came into play. At LO we were well away from the Jan 12th zone... where were we? At the Jan 11th zone. We find support at LO and up we go back to the Jan 12th zone.

As you can see there was supply up there for sure which as we saw the SM we willing to absorb.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPiH1.png Size: 73 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #374
  • Jan 13, 2016 5:49pm Jan 13, 2016 5:49pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
{quote} Would you be able to code an indicator for the previous days high volume hourly bar? basically just automating the high/low/50 lines.
This has been on my to do list for close to 2 years now ..​. Unfortunately that is a trading convenience and not a need at this point so it keeps taking a backseat to other more pressing matters. I guess part of me likes spending 10 mins a night setting my charts for the next day.

It would not be tough to code (I coded something similar a few years ago) but it just comes down to finding the time, which is one thing I have no excess of.

Someday perhaps.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #375
  • Jan 13, 2016 7:52pm Jan 13, 2016 7:52pm
yeah I've posted the request to a few 'i'll code your indicators' threads a few times to no avail.
  • #376
  • Jan 14, 2016 2:35am Jan 14, 2016 2:35am
Quoting pres78
EURGBP today the zones from both the 12th and 11th came into play. At LO we were well away from the Jan 12th zone... where were we? At the Jan 11th zone. We find support at LO and up we go back to the Jan 12th zone. As you can see there was supply up there for sure which as we saw the SM we willing to absorb. {image}
Firstly can I say, what a great thread, thankyou! I have a question. You refer to earlier zones often, rather than just the previous day. How far back do you go, and/or when is a zone no longer valid and can be removed from my chart? I fear I would end up having a chart full of lines and at some point one will cause a reaction.
  • #377
  • Jan 14, 2016 4:33am Jan 14, 2016 4:33am
Hi Pres,

I am a silent reader of your thread for just a couple of days, but I wanted to express how I appreciate that you share your strategy, system and examples! It is very helpful for us! Hope you will keep posting.

One of my strategies was very similar to your approach (entering at the edges of high volume areas) but I didnt fully discovered its potential. Hope you dont mind of I share one beautiful setup that recently occured on GBPUSD (unfortunatelly missed by me).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 20160113.jpg Size: 253 KB
  • #378
  • Jan 14, 2016 5:47am Jan 14, 2016 5:47am
Requested for 3 Bar Pattern at post 368 but....Ur the master as you like..
To Me 3 Possible ways to mark the zone but not sure what should be exact rule. so some Questions also helpful for others may be.
1. When marking the Zone it only needs to be high volume no matter how Narrow or Wide spread is. if two bars at same place with high volume appear should cover both or single? and when bars B and A printed with high volume but not equal to bar C we should quickly pick them even they are inside our first Zone?
2. On Two charts 2BR at 11th JAN 17:00 not worked whats was wrong with that?
Also bar C Zone Marked with tight Range Doji type Candle with highest volume changed the view overall.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #379
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:20am Jan 14, 2016 7:20am
Quoting Solvermode
Hi Pres, I am a silent reader of your thread for just a couple of days, but I wanted to express how I appreciate that you share your strategy, system and examples! It is very helpful for us! Hope you will keep posting. One of my strategies was very similar to your approach (entering at the edges of high volume areas) but I didnt fully discovered its potential. Hope you dont mind of I share one beautiful setup that recently occured on GBPUSD (unfortunatelly missed by me). {image}
Welcome.

Not at all, that was a nice set-up. Well I hope you can carry on and take this method to it's full potential this time around!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #380
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:33am Jan 14, 2016 7:33am
Quoting andys0506
{quote} Firstly can I say, what a great thread, thankyou! I have a question. You refer to earlier zones often, rather than just the previous day. How far back do you go, and/or when is a zone no longer valid and can be removed from my chart? I fear I would end up having a chart full of lines and at some point one will cause a reaction.
I may add this to the FAQ on post 1 as I do get this question a lot. I ALWAYS have the zone from yesterday on my chart when the new day starts. Then I zoom out and look to see if I can find a recent zone above and below the current in play zone that is around the ADR away (may be a little closer, could be a little further). The reason for this is that it gives a nice target IF we get a trade from the current (yesterday's) zone. In the case of the EURGBP zone we were at the lower target zone when LO came around so the roles switches and the old zone gave the entry and the current zone gave the target.

I hope that makes sense. What I described above is the basics of VZA and setting up my charts for the next day of trading. There are some more complex things we can do using today's zones (if yesterday's zone is out of play) but to get started focus on the basics to keep your trades and charts simple and clean. Basic VZA gives us where we want to see an entry and targets.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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