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Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

  • #341
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:16am Jan 11, 2016 10:16am
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​Now you can see why I prefer my pres78 2BR's, when that second bar is on increased volume I find sometimes the patterns fail... look at the 3 pairs I noted... all printed what looked like great 2BR's into the 50% level and even closed back above the zone high... if that second bar was on lower volume I would have taken longs on all 3 pairs at market. With that increase in volume on bar 2 I just feel uneasy as they can often be an immediate reversal as we have seen here. I never trade high volume 2BR's at market. I enter on pending's...
​Interesting day... EURUSD found support at 50% (so far) and is giving a boost to EURGBP and EURCAD. This is why we can't blindly trade breaks of levels. We need to see that the level has truly been taken and then defended. Otherwise we get whipsawed to pieces.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #342
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:58am Jan 11, 2016 10:58am
Take a look at EURGBP, today's highest volume 1hr zone has it's 50% right at the zone H from Friday. Increased volume down bar. See of we get a return to and then find support at that shared level of the two zones.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #343
  • Jan 11, 2016 11:00am Jan 11, 2016 11:00am
Not something I caught or was even watching, but look at the runner on this baby! An entry on the 50 fib NS test could easily be up 7R here.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #344
  • Jan 11, 2016 11:03am Jan 11, 2016 11:03am
Quoting pres78
Take a look at EURGBP, today's highest volume 1hr zone has it's 50% right at the zone H from Friday. Increased volume down bar. See of we get a return to and then find support at that shared level of the two zones.
​Spoke too soon... 1hr just printed a ND/UT which closed below that shared level. EURUSD came back the Friday zone H (giving that boost to a few EUR pairs) and then failed again... As I said before interesting day. Been tough to get a clear read, lots of pairs range bound within the zones.

See if things are clearer come LO tomorrow.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #345
  • Jan 11, 2016 12:07pm Jan 11, 2016 12:07pm
Quoting Rinehart
Not something I caught or was even watching, but look at the runner on this baby! An entry on the 50 fib NS test could easily be up 7R here. {image}
Hi Rinehart

What does the green and red arrows signal?
  • #346
  • Jan 11, 2016 12:11pm Jan 11, 2016 12:11pm
It's an indicator that shows confirmed no demand and no supply signals. It is useful if you are watching multiple pairs. Normally I will enter before the confirmation candle prints, but I do find it helpful nonetheless.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 NSNDAlert3.ex4   10 KB | 228 downloads
File Type: ex4 NSNDHistory.ex4   7 KB | 235 downloads
  • #347
  • Jan 11, 2016 12:14pm Jan 11, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting Rinehart
Not something I caught or was even watching, but look at the runner on this baby! An entry on the 50 fib NS test could easily be up 7R here. {image}
​Yep NY boys certainly took that pair up. Nice little hourly SO to start their day and boom, up she went.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #348
  • Jan 11, 2016 12:20pm Jan 11, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting Rinehart
It's an indicator that shows confirmed no demand and no supply signals. It is useful if you are watching multiple pairs. Normally I will enter before the confirmation candle prints, but I do find it helpful nonetheless. {file} {file}
Highly appreciated man.
  • #349
  • Jan 11, 2016 12:48pm Jan 11, 2016 12:48pm
Hey Pres
Gotta say awesome journal here, really informative. I have a few questions:

1. When would you use the current days LO and/or NYO bar

2. If you would use the LO and/or NYO bar what timeframe would it be on i.e. h1, m30, m15

3. I got stopped out on the EURUSD today (17:30 bar) when it went back under the fib50, could you help me understand where I went wrong


4. Could you also post some chart examples of your 2br method

thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #350
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:12pm Jan 11, 2016 1:12pm
Quoting sparta480
Hey Pres Gotta say awesome journal here, really informative. I have a few questions: 1. When would you use the current days LO and/or NYO bar 2. If you would use the LO and/or NYO bar what timeframe would it be on i.e. h1, m30, m15 3. I got stopped out on the EURUSD today (17:30 bar) when it went back under the fib50, could you help me understand where I went wrong 4. Could you also post some chart examples of your 2br method thanks {image}
​Hello Sparta and welcome.

When price is no longer close to yesterday's zone OR if the LO or NYO zone overlaps (on higher volume) yesterday's zone.

For the basics I always use 1 hour zones for my intraday trading. These zones are well respected and you can find entries on anything from 5 min up to the hourly charts themselves.

Looking at your chart I have no idea why you entered there during a bar that was still forming. Was it a lower TF entry than the chart you showed? Please clarify.

I will when I have time, I've posted many before here and over at the VSA with Malc thread if you want to check them out in the meantime.

Wow lots of new people popping in (some even very new to Forex Factory). I was worried I might get lost here in the journal section but people seem to be finding their way here.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #351
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:28pm Jan 11, 2016 1:28pm
Yeah I think I totally screwed that up big time, entered on the m5 when it broke back over the H after reversing from the 50 fib. Always tomorrow to make up for it
I will definitely start going through the VSA with Malc to better understand where I went wrong on some trades

thanks
  • #352
  • Edited 11:45pm Jan 11, 2016 11:04pm | Edited 11:45pm
Great stuff prez!!

If you wouldn't mind, what pairs are you most comfortable trading with this system?
  • #353
  • Jan 12, 2016 5:40am Jan 12, 2016 5:40am
pres, just a thought but it might be worth editing the first post and setting up a quick FAQ to answer some of the more common questions that arise.
  • #354
  • Jan 12, 2016 5:55am Jan 12, 2016 5:55am
I took the ND below the zone printed by the pin bar on Gold. It is also a nice support level. Stop is middle way between the 50 fib and the small resistance above. Let's see!

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Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #355
  • Jan 12, 2016 6:50am Jan 12, 2016 6:50am
Quoting KinsaleForex
pres, just a thought but it might be worth editing the first post and setting up a quick FAQ to answer some of the more common questions that arise.
Yeah that might be a good idea. Might work on that when I have some time. In all honesty Liam I had no idea this many folks would be popping in showing interest in VZA, especially over here in the journal section. Where I am not in the trading systems or discussion area I figured I spent some time talking to myself and then stop posting again ...

That said I could cover a lot of the more common questions for sure on post 1 to save me from having to respond over and over.

I will put this idea in front of the VZA board to see if it gets a yes vote ... In all seriousness though it is a good idea.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #356
  • Jan 12, 2016 7:24am Jan 12, 2016 7:24am
See how this gonna work out.
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  • #357
  • Jan 12, 2016 7:37am Jan 12, 2016 7:37am
Quoting Darastonius
I took the ND below the zone printed by the pin bar on Gold. It is also a nice support level. Stop is middle way between the 50 fib and the small resistance above. Let's see! {image}
​I took a Gold short also couple hours after LO. LO happened as a mark up into the low of yesterday's zone but I didn't see anything I liked so I waited for a break out of the LO zone and took the ND into the low with an entry at 1094, SL was at 1096 now locked in at 2:1.

The entry you took was nice also into the low of the zone from 2 days ago. Even nicer ND 5 bars later right before the big drop. What I like better about the second ND right before the drop is that it closed below the zone L and not inside it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #358
  • Jan 12, 2016 9:15am Jan 12, 2016 9:15am
Trade Management - Specifically Trailing

So I have a question that I'd be curious to get some feedback on. Currently when I use it to manage my trades my EA will trail per the following rules;

  1. Move to BE at 2:1
  2. Move to 1:1 at 3:1
  3. Move to 2:1 at 4:1
  4. etc...

I can control when to start the trail (minimum is 2 levels - which means price has to be 2R from the current SL) and also by how much the SL moves. I can also set where I want my fixed TP to be such as 5:1 or 10:1 away from entry. I need the TP in place even if it's 100R away as that's how the SL knows to move as entry price and a fixed profit are fixed where as the SL is variable so it can't be used as a constant measure.

Anyway the point of my post and the question I have is this...

Right now the SL trails once either the BID or the ASK hits the level, but it doesn't matter if it closes over/under the level. I have had several occasions where I hit say 4:1, SL moves to 2:1 I get stopped out and prices carries on it's way.

I am currently looking back at trades to see whether having a must close over/under the level affects my overall trade performance. As in does it keep me in trades I was stopped out on for a better R:R than I got, but also does it affect the R:R on other trades as well?

Does anyone have any thoughts on this or experience with trailing and how they manage it?

What worries me the most about making the change (in addition to the impact on my trade history) is what TF would I use for the must close rule. As we all know a close above/below a level on a lower TF doesn't always equal to a close above/below the level in the higher TF (AKA UT and SO or tests etc...)...

That is the conundrum.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #359
  • Jan 12, 2016 10:18am Jan 12, 2016 10:18am
Now I'm not one to short from a zone H (unless I am scalping the zone itself - disclaimer - much more risky and not recommended) especially when the zone low is still intact. Even if the zone low has been taken out I am very hesitant to short from above the hinge. That said however we can still use these signs as a possible roadmap.

Take a look at EURUSD, 30 min chart. Look at that last bar before LO. We see a complete and utter lack of demand. London opens we see a down bar followed by an up bar that was just full of hidden sellers. While we shouldn't trade that ND into the H, that sign showing lack in interest for higher prices helps us see that today could well be a day to be a seller.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #360
  • Jan 12, 2016 11:03am Jan 12, 2016 11:03am
Just updated post 1 with a few FAQ to get the ball rolling. Still more things to add I'm sure and I will let people know when it's been updated but take a peek. They are not in any special order, just how I thought of them in.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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