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  • #9,521
  • Jan 13, 2016 6:53am Jan 13, 2016 6:53am
Make number of days to load like 60.
  • #9,522
  • Jan 13, 2016 6:57am Jan 13, 2016 6:57am
many thanks Harold will make changes .. have backtested 1st half of dec15 using r7 charts - here's what's come out:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Become the casino
  • #9,523
  • Jan 13, 2016 6:59am Jan 13, 2016 6:59am
that's just for cl .. easily best results i've seen for this period - will run through dec13 to see how this stands up in different year
Become the casino
  • #9,524
  • Jan 13, 2016 7:07am Jan 13, 2016 7:07am
<p>So there were 2 30 tick wins there making it 32 wins 6 losses net 26 15 = 390 ticks not bad for 2 weeks
  • #9,525
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:22am Jan 13, 2016 8:22am
Quoting erasmus66
many thanks Harold will make changes .. have backtested 1st half of dec15 using r7 charts - here's what's come out: {image}
Thanks for sharing your study !

So now the question is as to what your typical live "% of perfect" execution is historically - including trades made not on the list - & what it needs to be to make money.

I find this in some ways both the most challenging and yet most rewarding component once the method has been clearly defined and established...

... speaking of which & still on the subject of research : jtLabs has noticed that this European morning, it would have been easier to have traded the ES even though it was "sleeping" at the time (& traded over 50k contracts for first hour off the LO, 10x more than FDXM & of course with huge liquidity and supertight spread).

Madame ES now under the microscope :nerd: (EuroStoxx / FESX trades even greater volume, but quite a but less range).
  • #9,526
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:30am Jan 13, 2016 8:30am
In a couple of words Wednesdays stink
  • #9,527
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:45am Jan 13, 2016 8:45am
Ditto stink !!!
  • #9,528
  • Jan 13, 2016 11:48am Jan 13, 2016 11:48am
Quoting Divergence
In a couple of words Wednesdays stink
I netted out 4.4 ES points (still on one contract). I should have done much better. I took a whipsaw 2fer loss on my ORB trades (1st short then long both stopped for 3 point losses). Then made a 7 point profit (short the break of the revised opening range). Then let myself get chopped a bit during the late morning range. Finally hit for 8 points. Gross was 5.75, but after commissions, my net was just under 4.5 points.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Onward and upward!
  • #9,529
  • Edited 1:47pm Jan 13, 2016 12:55pm | Edited 1:47pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I netted out 4.4 ES points (still on one contract). I should have done much better. I took a whipsaw 2fer loss on my ORB trades (1st short then long both stopped for 3 point losses). Then made a 7 point profit (short the break of the revised opening range). Then let myself get chopped a bit during the late morning range. Finally hit for 8 points. Gross was 5.75, but after commissions, my net was just under 4.5 points. {image} Onward and upward!
a very rough day for you that could been catastrophic. I would examine whether or not to trade on Wednesday it really stinks on a lot of markets and ES might also be one of then. Congrats on outcome whew!!!
  • #9,530
  • Jan 13, 2016 3:41pm Jan 13, 2016 3:41pm
Very rough day indeed, and truthfully, it was all my doing and not the market. The ES actually performed as I had expected it to - in fact it outperformed in that I was expecting a decline but not expecting it to make new lows today!

From the "what I should have done" perspective that is hindsight, I should have kept my third trade open with a breakeven stop instead of squeezing it for the seven points. The seven point profit trailing stop was the result of me wanting to lock in enough profits to make up for earlier losses. Had I traded the price action, I shoulda been short at 1938 and covered for approximately +60 points near the close. But that would be a perfect, flawlessly executed trade according to my trading plan - and that is NOT what I did today.

The first two losses were really no big deal. But I let them bother me today for some reason. Once in awhile, the market does the 2ferloser off the opening range, and I know that. My mistakes were 1) cutting my profit short on the third trade 2) realizing I had cut it short and then coughing it all back up as I kept entering inside of a chop zone and 3) having let yself get chopped up, I was gun shy when price broke free of the chop zone, so I missed most of the second leg down (about 48 points!)

You are right, D. I am very lucky to have performed as well as I did. But I didn't need to take the day off to be protected from the market - I needed to be protected from myself!
  • #9,531
  • Edited 4:28pm Jan 13, 2016 4:06pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting ddaytrader
Very rough day indeed, and truthfully, it was all my doing and not the market. The ES actually performed as I had expected it to - in fact it outperformed in that I was expecting a decline but not expecting it to make new lows today! From the &quot;what I should have done&quot; perspective that is hindsight, I should have kept my third trade open with a breakeven stop instead of squeezing it for the seven points. The seven point profit trailing stop was the result of me wanting to lock in enough profits to make up for earlier losses. Had I traded...
interesting play by play to much helter skelter for me. Personally I always use a hard stop and destination target and lock in 15 when up over 22 and 25 when approaching target a risk 1 to make 2. But that's just me.</p>
  • #9,532
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:25am Jan 14, 2016 12:25am
Short European report this morning :

Loss, b/e, Loss, Loss = (3R) max daily loss hit : STOP for the day . Took 22 minutes.

All entries correct. Get over it (but this is why on the "good" days, we need to maximise our gains).
  • #9,533
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:30am Jan 14, 2016 12:30am
Now at my day job at jtLabs, testing ES ideas in SIM :

Attached Image


Target filled whilst posting.

Edit : my goodness, just Googled "jtlabs" and there are quite a few, from steroid suppliers & software developers to Labrador breeders... LOL !
  • #9,534
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:37am Jan 14, 2016 12:37am
Quoting ddaytrader
But I didn't need to take the day off to be protected from the market - I needed to be protected from myself!
Excellent post, dd, and very relevant final sentence (for most of us, at least).
  • #9,535
  • Jan 14, 2016 5:55am Jan 14, 2016 5:55am
Ok got some play money from YM 2b break pb to 142 short for 15. Now to parlay that into more. Always easier to trade with profits than capital
  • #9,536
  • Jan 14, 2016 6:12am Jan 14, 2016 6:12am
Quoting Divergence
Ok got some play money from YM 2b break pb to 142 short for 15. Now to parlay that into more. Always easier to trade with profits than capital
nice trade good work
Become the casino
  • #9,537
  • Jan 14, 2016 6:15am Jan 14, 2016 6:15am
Waiting till 930
  • #9,538
  • Jan 14, 2016 6:59am Jan 14, 2016 6:59am
be+1 from break of day's high so far:

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Become the casino
  • #9,539
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:00am Jan 14, 2016 7:00am
Crude had a 2b at 83 momentum already confirmed then formed a 123 short from 87 got up 20 locked in another 15
  • #9,540
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:03am Jan 14, 2016 7:03am
YM BREAK of low of day 2 closes got up 23 locked in 15
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