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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,581
  • Jan 12, 2016 11:38am Jan 12, 2016 11:38am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Seems both of u are on the same boat ....
Those two have been in the boat longer, I'm just the one making noise with the recent developments

July 2015 last I recall
  • #138,582
  • Jan 12, 2016 11:40am Jan 12, 2016 11:40am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} It points to 12-14 $ mark..
On Oil I see the area in the MAP but in my books is VERY LOCKED for now both Fundamentally and Technically.

On the FA side US and especially Europe are going to have a very solid year that will have a massive impact in demand while I expect China to bottom by the end of the year.

On the TA side, 25.9x is Steel Support and in order to crack it will need something major....

Quote
{quote} S&P implies 1780's before reversing for all time highs again...

Absolutely!!!

Quote
{quote} U/J has a big decision to make around 119.40's (for 124.xx,)...

Agree...

Quote
{quote} Gold wants 1040's before bouncing (or not) towards 13xx (ultimately should hit bellow 800 at some point)...

Gold is running (mid term downtrend) on fumes now . My forecast is to start forming a bottom early this year (once FED hikes for 2nd or 3er time). In the short term, risk unlocked as high as 1160.xx in case of a panic leg in equities/oil but 1080.xx is still the KEY flip level to complete the leg 970.xx ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,583
  • Jan 12, 2016 11:43am Jan 12, 2016 11:43am
Nov 3, 2015 19:20:
Quoting hathor
{quote} Technically: Monthly - still buy signal since March Weekly - buy signal since last week Daily - buy signal since 30th of Oct H4 - buy signal today Everything is prepared to a decent up move, but events such as Draghi/Yellen speech can kick every system in the ass, so just careful.
After all TF showed buy, the pair was stretched down by 400pips (~November).

Nov 25, 2015 14:03:
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bought the new low.
Check the posts after it (no offense, just important because it clearly shows: the best trades are which looks the most crazy)
And check what happened after 25th of Nov.

Well, the situation is the same for me, the TFs has been aligned, the next step is to be patient and to buy as low as it's possible.

PS: And we are still at that specific level, where the previous TF alignment came + we have a new one here (this is why I think this turn will not be temporary -> very long term [one year bottom is very long for me] bear trap is under construction)

This post is reflecting my opinion and these are not facts! So please don't trade it and don't let my words influence your thoughts. Thank you!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,584
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:05pm Jan 12, 2016 1:05pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Seems both of u are on the same boat ....
Except that our boat is sinking and his captain has hidden the floating tyres.
  • #138,585
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:06pm Jan 12, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Except that our boat is sinking and his captain has hidden the floating tyres.
This mini norm said otherwise,

cast the sails!

full speed ahead!

Dont forget the lipstick bucket!
Attached Image
  • #138,586
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:08pm Jan 12, 2016 1:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Those two have been in the boat longer, I'm just the one making noise with the recent developments July 2015 last I recall
You don't believe how many over here cheer for the military solution. Their (great-)grandfathers would slap them until their butts turn purple and make them take a trip to Stalingrad in winter. But it all nice and cozy with those nifty drones, which we started leasing (think about that) recently from the Israelis.
  • #138,587
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:16pm Jan 12, 2016 1:16pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} You don't believe how many over here cheer for the military solution. Their (great-)grandfathers would slap them until their butts turn purple and make them take a trip to Stalingrad in winter. But it all nice and cozy with those nifty drones, which we started leasing (think about that) recently from the Israelis.
Generations are detached from WW2. Many don't realize real war....its something on the TV in a far away fairy tale land

The same ones cheering for it now will be the same ones that dodged the draft and will rally to end it later while others are fighting. At least here in America, where we have the luxury of waging wars in other countries rather than our own

Would be a different world indeed if wars came here- from a military perspective it would be an interesting experiment considering the numbers of civilians with weapons that may choose to fight
  • #138,588
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:23pm Jan 12, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} You don't believe how many over here cheer for the military solution. Their (great-)grandfathers would slap them until their butts turn purple and make them take a trip to Stalingrad in winter. But it all nice and cozy with those nifty drones, which we started leasing (think about that) recently from the Israelis.
You think that's ironic? Guess who we buy our gas masks from.
  • #138,589
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:28pm Jan 12, 2016 1:28pm
...and for the headlines!!! ... Oil officially traded below the $30.xx handle.

Not really important for trading but for the record another milestone in these boards (we have witness here, Lehman Collapse, Recession, EZ Debt Crisis). Major break down in one of the most important instruments in the world...`

Not much to see or do if you are not holding shorts in OIL until the expected OPEC tweet and/or inventories tomorrow....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,590
  • Jan 12, 2016 3:45pm Jan 12, 2016 3:45pm
A rather dull day in the Euro and surprise surprise (not really) we are rolling 1.086x....

Oil in full control one more time for tomorrow and without surprises there, we are pretty much set for pure soft measured technicals move across the board until the BOE kick start the currency season for the mid term moves...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,591
  • Jan 12, 2016 3:53pm Jan 12, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting sisse
A rather dull day in the Euro and surprise surprise (not really) we are rolling 1.086x.... Oil in full control one more time for tomorrow and without surprises there, we are pretty much set for pure soft measured technicals move across the board until the BOE kick start the currency season for the mid term moves... sisse
Soft Measure Technicals? Can you explain the "soft measured" part please?
  • #138,592
  • Jan 13, 2016 7:17am Jan 13, 2016 7:17am
Waiting for the crude oil inventory data to see the effect from this on the markets. A short-covering rally has been seen in crude, with no evidence, so far at least, that the price action since the dip below $30 represents anything more than some shorts squaring their positions prior to the key data in a couple of hours from now.
  • #138,593
  • Jan 13, 2016 7:41am Jan 13, 2016 7:41am
Quoting gammase1
Waiting for the crude oil inventory data to see the effect from this on the markets. A short-covering rally has been seen in crude, with no evidence, so far at least, that the price action since the dip below $30 represents anything more than some shorts squaring their positions prior to the key data in a couple of hours from now.
Indeed. Also in the TA side the hard work is already done and settle to unlock at least one more extended leg down.

Inventories can trigger a more aggressive profit taking short term. A fast domino [very tradable too] will be set in action covering on the run as the boat is fully loaded. Losing (a break up) the $31.xx handle for a test 34.0x with extension $35.6x without much effort (lots of air in this area).

To the other side, there is noting to do as we are in no man land [very poor r:r] to add or load new shorts but let panic roll on inertia till $26.xx.

Whatever the case, NY look set to start the day after a rather dull european morning....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,594
  • Jan 13, 2016 7:45am Jan 13, 2016 7:45am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed. Also in the TA side the hard work is already done and settle to unlock at least one more extended leg down. Inventories can trigger a more aggressive profit taking short term. A fast domino [very tradable too] will be set in action covering on the run as the boat is fully loaded. Losing (a break up) the $31.xx handle for a test 34.0x with extension $35.6x without much effort (lots of air in this area). To the other side, there is noting to do as we are in no man land [very poor r:r] to add or load new shorts but let panic roll on...
What about eurusd.. it seems making a strong support on 1.08
  • #138,595
  • Jan 13, 2016 7:59am Jan 13, 2016 7:59am
Quoting mohwazzan
{quote} What about eurusd.. it seems making a strong support on 1.08
what about it? ...

Not much to update in there we have barely moved from the range. All soft technicals as expected since the close nothing much to see or do this morning, basically same levels, same trades, same all ...

NY and OIL coming and hopefully we will start moving in the Euro....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,596
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:02am Jan 13, 2016 8:02am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed. Also in the TA side the hard work is already done and settle to unlock at least one more extended leg down. To the other side, there is noting to do as we are in no man land [very poor r:r] to add or load new shorts but let panic roll on inertia till $26.xx. Whatever the case, NY look set to start the day after a rather dull european morning.... sisse
This is the only way I see EU making a last run towards the .097X ext to .108X SHORT term to complete and put a top on the MID TERM LEG downward to .0460

I still am waiting to get filled in this area.

I think this is what sisse means by "soft measures' in the techs today Roobii. I may be wrong; but, its how I interpret this RINSE and REPEAT Move in the market. When OIL loses its footing, so does Equities. As a result, Money goes into GOLD due to MODERATE RISK and EU gets stronger and DOLLAR for now remains neutral or slightly bearish. This could be OIL's last leg down now if the above scenario plays out. IMO.
  • #138,597
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:15am Jan 13, 2016 8:15am
Quoting IMARICH1
... interpret this RINSE and REPEAT Move in the market. When OIL loses its footing, so does Equities. As a result, Money goes into GOLD due to MODERATE RISK and EU gets stronger and DOLLAR for now remains neutral or slightly bearish. This could be OIL's last leg down now if the above scenario plays out. IMO.
Good post. Just one comment. In strictly trading terms, right now EURO is getting stronger now via carry trade. The extreme low rates in Euro are making the best currency for it (even better than the usual YEN).

As you well point out, the minute we break from RISK we well get back to the 'normal' flows: Dollar up -> Oil Down -> DOLLAR pairs down...and for the look of all USD FX pairs and crosses except the Eur/USD right now ...we are aligning for a MAJOR LEG in the DXY very soon.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,598
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:55am Jan 13, 2016 8:55am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Hey, you still have unfinished business with the pound dont you? I remember your saying that it wasn't your favorite currency pair to trade... Something about the measure of the moves or volatility I think. Anyway, jokes aside, coast to coast on that DAX and it just reached 10094. Wow. Quite an unexpected range? I think it revealed today just what a healthy market it really is relative to some of the others. Let's see if S&P can show some of that too.
We completed the small range to test the quarterly low on the pair again as we topped off Equity resistance. There was good value from longing Euro/GBP today in my case around those equity highs but nothing much else on the table. U/J rallied nicely overnight alongside their equity market as expected but I didn't trade that.


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  • #138,599
  • Jan 13, 2016 9:20am Jan 13, 2016 9:20am
Double bottom confirmed ... Target 1.087x ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,600
  • Jan 13, 2016 9:24am Jan 13, 2016 9:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Good post. Just one comment. In strictly trading terms, right now EURO is getting stronger now via carry trade. The extreme low rates in Euro are making the best currency for it (even better than the usual YEN). As you well point out, the minute we break from RISK we well get back to the 'normal' flows: Dollar up -> Oil Down -> DOLLAR pairs down...and for the look of all USD FX pairs and crosses except the Eur/USD right now ...we are aligning for a MAJOR LEG in the DXY very soon. sisse
Thanks sisse. Didn't even consider this. I am not as familiar with the "carry trade" as well. Makes sense what you pointed out. However, since the rates are going to remain LOW in EU for a while just as they were and still are in US which helped drive the economy for a bit, what kind of duration do you consider for carry trade to impact EU? DO you watch the GBP/US and USD/YEN until we break from RISK? And, I am inferring you mean a MAJOR LEG in DXY LONG to correlate with the MID TERM LEG in EU SHORT? Assuming this will align with US EQUITIES and the DOLLAR too...

If this is an elementary question, I will refrain from asking and send you message if more appropriate. Thanks
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