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  • #138,461
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:45am Jan 8, 2016 7:45am
Good luck.. I am bought some SDS today, so far it is working.. I think equity markets will close in red today in preparation of the China data release over the weekend
Quoting chester123
{quote} yes, small short from like 35,xx approx. not intraday. nothing big. I usually get burnt by oil. more loaded in equities so hope we get the final cut. even though the odd are lower after NFP. but judging as per right now - absolutely possible.
  • #138,462
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:48am Jan 8, 2016 7:48am
anyone can explain what's happening, either technically or fundamentally?
  • #138,463
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:51am Jan 8, 2016 7:51am
Quoting ws121
anyone can explain what's happening, either technically or fundamentally?
haha, maybe wait for sisse? but what about saying first where u see the problem? i mean I dont see any anomaly - still the same week-long story
  • #138,464
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:52am Jan 8, 2016 7:52am
Quoting ws121
anyone can explain what's happening, either technically or fundamentally?
Technically just waste of time .... Fundamentally sisse chester and fool will help...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,465
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:55am Jan 8, 2016 7:55am
Quoting ws121
anyone can explain what's happening, either technically or fundamentally?
watch for equities breaking the floor alongside Oil
  • #138,466
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:03am Jan 8, 2016 8:03am
Quoting chester123
{quote} haha, maybe wait for sisse? but what about saying first where u see the problem? i mean I dont see any anomaly - still the same week-long story
the problem with extreme NFP #, eur went down, then recovered all the way up with 200% gains since the release
  • #138,467
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:13am Jan 8, 2016 8:13am
Scalping after a long time .... It's dam interesting but fcukng risky...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,468
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:15am Jan 8, 2016 8:15am
Quoting ws121
{quote} the problem with extreme NFP #, eur went down, then recovered all the way up with 200% gains since the release
well, the scenario is outlined in sisses pre-NFP post. so not so suprising. plus look at his last post - just watch oil and equities, E/U is the most back-placed instrument right now.

for me personally: I folded EU shorts at the beginning of this week risk-off spike up - was kind of sad cuz those were mine loving perfectly placed from the top and were supposed to run mid term down but thats how it works - u have to let it go if the times come. If I held I would be at almost 0 now did not load anything after NFP on E/U. I would say its suicide to load shorts when in any minute you can have a major risk-off due to move wiping out like 5% of SP500.
  • #138,469
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:23am Jan 8, 2016 8:23am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} natgas glut looks to have lots of room to run, there are easier commodity trades.....50 years is a long time, new energy storage technologies will likely make hydrocarbons obsolete as an energy source ...if you want to do a buy 'n hold trade, the opportunity is coming in pure oil (USO) or oil-related names - if you have $10,000 to invest, buy USO when wti bottoms (sisse will tell you when the bottom is in ) - because that bottom won't last.....1,000 shares of USO bought at $9 or lower could be worth $50k within 1-2 years and maybe much...
How about USO otm call options with long time horizons?

At $9 USO those options outta be cheap....if you're right....oh good lord
  • #138,470
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:25am Jan 8, 2016 8:25am
As far as the EU move, I expect it's 1.2 or 1.1086 norm swinging its nuts.

EU is moving, but other xxUS crosses aren't going the same direction
  • #138,471
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:27am Jan 8, 2016 8:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I had thought that a big NFP number would ultimately deflate the bull case for risk assets - the old good news is bad news meme, because the strength signs in the US economy will mean the Fed continues apace with the rate hike schedule.........
I agree. I personally think we crossed the line already. A couple of more solid employment numbers with inflation in line (as its expected) and we are going to set the low of the year (actually a major multi year low) by/before FED March. The rest of the year we'll get stuck in chop zone until US elections is cleared ...

We are going to test under 1800.xx one way (risk) or the other (normalisation) the only thing it will change is the pace the current mid term leg will pan out.

For today after the superb report we are back to imminent break levels. Europe is going home without showing any interest to do much more so one more time this week all eyes on the floor in equites and the black hole in OIL.

Quoting Pharm0r
Just a random wondering.... I wonder if buying NGAS and holding for the next 50 years would be worth it
Go to your local post office buy 100 bucks of the cheapest stamp available, give it to your kids ...they may get a bit better return in 50yrs selling them as collector items rather than investing in NGAS ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,472
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:31am Jan 8, 2016 8:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I agree. I personally think we crossed the line already. A couple of more solid employment numbers with inflation in line (as its expected) and we are going to set the low of the year (actually a major multi year low) by/before FED March. We are going to test under 1800.xx one way (risk) or the other (normalisation) the only thing it will change is the pace the current mid term leg will pan out. For today after the superb report we are back to imminent break levels. Europe is going home without showing any interest to do much more so one...
Haha....I get the joke there...but honestly...

If you've ever used the postal service, what a horrible business. Federally speaking they are great, in that they pay for themselves and require no tax dollars.....but speaking of service provided to the customer, they are a nightmare. FedEx or UPS much better, case of private companies doing a much better job than government.
  • #138,473
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:31am Jan 8, 2016 8:31am
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, the scenario is outlined in sisses pre-NFP post. so not so suprising. plus look at his last post - just watch oil and equities, E/U is the most back-placed instrument right now. for me personally: I folded EU shorts at the beginning of this week risk-off spike up - was kind of sad cuz those were mine loving perfectly placed from the top and were supposed to run mid term down but thats how it works - u have to let it go if the times come. If I held I would be at almost 0 now did not load anything after NFP on E/U. I would say...
Well, I'm holding from the very top too, but added after the release backed by sisse's outlined analysis before the release
Quoting sisse
Any other scenario will trigger an uneventful news play for a zig zag play to test the highs for soft profit taking to 1.086x. Only losing 1.086x will open momentum to test the 1.07xx handle.
I was trapped to think we did loose 1.086x
  • #138,474
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:40am Jan 8, 2016 8:40am
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, the scenario is outlined in sisses pre-NFP post. so not so suprising. plus look at his last post - just watch oil and equities, E/U is the most back-placed instrument right now. for me personally: I folded EU shorts at the beginning of this week risk-off spike up - was kind of sad cuz those were mine loving perfectly placed from the top and were supposed to run mid term down but thats how it works - u have to let it go if the times come. If I held I would be at almost 0 now did not load anything after NFP on E/U. I would say...
Also seeing aud, nzd, gbp, cad, all of them are going up ?!!!
  • #138,475
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:45am Jan 8, 2016 8:45am
Imho....This is about money. And money feeds you, your partner, your children, your pet, your car..... I highly suggest to NOT enter or keep a position/order just because someone's post/opinion here. Seriously. Make your own decisions and face the 'music' (consequences). This is the only way to learn from your experiences. I'm just saying this because I did the same before, rather listened to experienced traders (like Maxdoom, Sisse) and I felt agonized, when the market tricked me (us). Nowadays I keep tracking the pros here, so when our view match, than I have more confidence, but thats all.
End of preching.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,476
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:49am Jan 8, 2016 8:49am
Quoting ws121
{quote} Also seeing aud, nzd, gbp, cad, all of them are going up ?!!!
well, no, but euro has for some time been acting differently than the other currencies. Usually spiking up when u have risk off - dollar too (if we have the first level of risk-off as sisse outlined) but mostly against other currencies, i.e. euro gains against dollar during risk off. The logic is something like this - you have extremely low interest rates in eurozone and a lot of euros flows around and are invested in many assets with higer returns. But given the amount of euros (QE) + the interest rate here - I guess almost everything has higher return = so if u were to borrow money - u will do it in eurozone and invest it. But in moment of risk-off the money are flowing away from the risky assets (usually the ones with higher return) back into euros. Thats my general understanding. Ehm, if anyone knows more about how this works I bet we all interested to learn
  • #138,477
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:01am Jan 8, 2016 9:01am
...and i think we pretty much have the low of the day set in US equities (S&P ref) after the last tiny and light failed attempt to crack it.

Oil still open to the break and its a big ???? on the very lows as nobody is really sitting on the buy side right now at these levels.... when 99.99% of the market is on the same side...

....a tiny wind will blow a few handles down but nobody wants to be the sucker to offer first neither the one to get caught on the wrong side....Any excuse will create major moves in OIL so expecting a tweet any minute from OPEC, warmongering from the Saudis, or the next inventories to shake it out ...

Week is pretty much over except if OIL slip to the abyss...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,478
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:08am Jan 8, 2016 9:08am
sisse,

do you see EU testing Highs (.0940) still before settling back to .0860? Or since EQUITIES have based/ Not so much to see at top for EU today? Thanks
  • #138,479
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:10am Jan 8, 2016 9:10am
Quoting hathor
Imho....This is about money. And money feeds you, your partner, your children, your pet, your car..... I highly suggest to NOT enter or keep a position/order just because someone's post/opinion here. Seriously. Make your own decisions and face the 'music' (consequences). This is the only way to learn from your experiences. I'm just saying this because I did the same before, rather listened to experienced traders (like Maxdoom, Sisse) and I felt agonized, when the market tricked me (us). Nowadays I keep tracking the pros here, so when our view match,...
Very true and thanks for the advice ... However, considering the difference in understanding FA between me and you guys, especially sisse, I couldn't ignore his outlooks and overviews
  • #138,480
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:12am Jan 8, 2016 9:12am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, do you see EU testing Highs (.0940) still before settling back to .0860? Or since EQUITIES have based/ Not so much to see at top for EU today? Thanks
...yeap the zigzag play is intact... those are just crumbs left and purely micro technical flows that don't require anything outside the normal flows to complete. Europe is clearing for the week right now. After we may get a last push of the day, otherwise they will settle for the weekend open.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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