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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,421
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:54pm Jan 7, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, If I may bother you..... If the equities are unraveling; then, why would US DOLLAR be following. I would think going to CASH would strengthen the DOLLAR as with EU/DAX. ....
Well now after the fact i can tell you the answer which is exactly why I completely missed the last flow in the dollar (euro). We went (are going) a bit further than a simple risk-on and off event so markets went to GOLD and to smaller but still decent scale considering the move to Treasuries.

I mentioned a few times in FF, but for your reference RISK flows goes like this in very broad terms:

1. Normal risk-off / on events goes to Dollar

2. Medium risk on/off events usually goes to Gold

3. Major risk on/events goes to the almighty ultimate haven Treasuries ....

Obviously there is a grey scale in between so those are the general references ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,422
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:02pm Jan 7, 2016 3:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Real money buying at the close. 1940.xx is going to hold for today....3er largest Weekly selloff in equities since 2010 ...but we still have one more day ... Euro also reached 1.094x (superb move!!!)... We are pretty much done for the day. Sadly Asia is in control overnight and it will make it harder to follow for those of us without 24/7 branches across the world ...jej jeje.. sisse
Haha since China trading takes only 30 minutes these days its smarer to just go to bed in any case - no massacre, no happyend... more like TBC. See y´all tomorrow for the ride
  • #138,423
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:05pm Jan 7, 2016 3:05pm
Thanks sisse! That explanation makes sense and now I have some understanding. I was told by a trader friend of mine that traded in London about 5 yrs or so back that risk on=Equities UP and risk off=Equities Down and was Correlated with EU/USD. I have learned from you, if I picked up on it correctly, that correlations don't really exist and its other things making one market go one way or another.

This is a new concept regarding LEVELS of RISK for me. Now, I have to learn which RISK OFF is being implemented via commodities (GOLD, OIL ect) and Treasuries.

Appreciate all the help. I would like to take a small position at .094x as it was on my map and target area to SHORT. I am just gun shy as to what ASIA may do or LONDON before NFP. With NFP trending, I am not looking for an undershoot; but,a good # could create EQUITIES selling off and more DOLLAR weakness as REAL Money goes into Gold and Treasuries. However, this has a time stamp!
  • #138,424
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:17pm Jan 7, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting IMARICH1
..... This is a new concept regarding LEVELS of RISK for me. Now, I have to learn which RISK OFF is being implemented via commodities (GOLD, OIL eat) and Treasuries. ...I would like to take a small position at .094x as it was on my map and target area to SHORT....
The 'good news' for learning is that major risk off events seldom happens (1 or 2 times every few years so ) and most of the risk on/off events are soft and very short-lived so correlation with risk doesn't really change that often.

In any case, yes we finally reach the scheduled trigger event of the week tomorrow in the EURO. it's definitively the TIME to look for trades opps again. This last sharp retrace has been outstanding to say the least but it has mainly been driven by the huge moves in equities worldwide.

We are going to get plenty of action in the upcoming days/weeks in the pair so ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,425
  • Edited 4:04pm Jan 7, 2016 3:20pm | Edited 4:04pm
An institutional trader shared some info with me years ago to use a 20 MA on Day chart. When it flat lines or is flat and DAY candle reaches it and goes thru it to do a FIB PROJECTION from the current LOW of that trend. Opposite of RETRACEMENT. When I take the FIB tool at the bottom of lowest LOW recently of trend down on DAY chart -.0710 and take the 50% fib to flatline of 20MA, it PROJECTS to .1095..........interesting! If I do the Projection from the Lowest LOW (March and Nov 2015) it projects to .128x.

This is a level (.109x) we have been talking about. Just food for thought..........may be a coincidence.
  • #138,426
  • Jan 7, 2016 8:33pm Jan 7, 2016 8:33pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Definitively 1.086x is the level in play for tomorrow NFP (except a massive epic blow this afternoon in US equities or OIL...). In terms of the range to the top side 1.094x is very strong and above 1.108x is still marginally open. The level barely held the opening range and the european close unlocking TA wise 1.064x with a proper NFP. However, I wouldn't recommend you positioning blindly in currencies if you don't know what you are doing, in the doldrums of the US sessions, and especially when we have one of the biggest moves since 2008...
I'm not trading the Euro at the moment, just watching from the sidelines but my bias is definitely switched to BUY short term.

The PBOC has now thrown a spanner into the works, strengthening the CNY. This should certainly take the steam out of the downwards pressure in equities, lead to a short term floor and some temporary consolidation to end the week (especially combined with a positive NFP) and give everyone a chance to reload across the board (particularly equities, and A/U, N/U, A/J etc..) before the proper, scary drop next week/coming weeks.

For E/U I may consider a long below 1.083 to target 1.107+
  • #138,427
  • Jan 8, 2016 2:38am Jan 8, 2016 2:38am
...market finding short term foot in Asia and now in the European and session is pretty much over till NY and NFP. Nothing new after the sharp moves yesterday. Not much to do but wait in equities and oil.

On the Euro map crystal clear for the news. No surprises back to 1.086x that will be the rain maker for the news and next few session...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,428
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:16am Jan 8, 2016 3:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} Since you don't talk Fundamentals lets talk Technicals. I find very intriguing the way you read your charts and I don't really understand what is your time scope you are trading. First, I find so hard, under any measurements, how do you interpret Monthly and Weekly BUY signals. Given that you are an experienced trader I think the issue it may be more about semantics more than actual TA. When you refer to Monthly, weekly, etc buy are you referring to CANDLE by CANDLE base ? because that will explain a lot. Otherwise and since a few...
Hi! I quote a previous post of mine, maybe it makes a little clearer how I analyze the market. I will try to answer your questions later this week, when I'll have some spare time:
Quoting hathor
{quote} Pretty much agree with you, just a few thoughts: (In my humble opinion) I don't use Risk:Reward and TP. My system gives sell signal when price is extended to the upside and gives buy signal when price is extended to the downside. Therefore the Risk:Reward is always good. I always follow every time frame (TF) and note which TF has what kind of signal (buy or sell). Every TF has different 'power': - Monthly is the strongest, it contains average 4 weekly, ~20 daily, ....candle. - Weekly is the second, it contains 5 daily, 30 H4,.....candle...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,429
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:22am Jan 8, 2016 3:22am
Quoting The Fool
....so I have to wonder if $32.1 is going to be low water for wti for some time to come? US equities will bounce with oil....btfd not a question of if? but of when?....
when? now when. $32.1 low water? Book it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,430
  • Edited 4:25am Jan 8, 2016 3:56am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi! I quote a previous post of mine, maybe it makes a little clearer how I analyze the market. I will try to answer your questions later this week, when I'll have some spare time:{quote}
An example: 1. Monthly, Weekly & Daily buy signal / 2. Weekly & Daily sell signal / 3. Daily buy signal / 4. Daily sell signal / 5. Weekly & Daily buy signal / 6. Daily sell signal / 7. Daily buy signal
When I say Monthly .... Weekly .... Daily... Than I refer to the last signals on the specific time frame. So the last monthly signal was buy at XY price level and at XY time/date (candle close informations).
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,431
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:23am Jan 8, 2016 4:23am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Looks like the final bit of business from 1.1033 via the rate hike. Testing 1.0867 after the lower lows now after the former was initially resolved closer to the highs. Test of major support levels gave them that excuse I suppose. Either way, DAX knocking on the crucial 9780 which may well put an end the equity sell-off on this side- intraday overshoots aside.
Just to update my view as usual. We got the intraday range but unfortunately no follow through before another one of those Euro moves on risk later on.

Didn't have the energy to follow the Asian session but obviously serious value up there on the pair and a smooth move back down once their equity markets stabilized.

Crisis averted until we see what's cooking at the beginning of next week. I'm actually relieved we can catch our breath for today so let's see how NFP goes.
  • #138,432
  • Edited 5:10am Jan 8, 2016 4:49am | Edited 5:10am
Quoting hathor
{quote} An example: 1. Monthly, Weekly & Daily buy signal / 2. Weekly & Daily sell signal / 3. Daily buy signal / 4. Daily sell signal / 5. Weekly & Daily buy signal / 6. Daily sell signal / 7. Daily buy signal When I say Monthly .... Weekly .... Daily... Than I refer to the last signals on the specific time frame. So the last monthly signal was buy at XY price level and at XY time/date (candle close informations). {image}
Nice chart so I am guessing it also work in trendy condition, doesn't it?

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Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Just to update my view as usual. ...I'm actually relieved we can catch our breath for today so let's see how NFP goes.
It has been an outstanding week. I prefer if we kill the move fast and efficient otherwise it will get choppy. A bumpy ride down in equities is usually a hard one to stay with the trade. In any case, NFP itself is pretty much on the 'irrelevant' side this time but given the levels in play in Equites and OIL its something not to overlook for today.

If we get and unexpected bad number the break will happen via OIL and the board will follow through with force ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,433
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:49am Jan 8, 2016 5:49am
When things seemed to be getting calm for the week, .Imminent break down!!! alerts triggered in OIL one more time before NFP.... This is looking rather scary, as usual like in the last 3 extension a tiny blow below the $33.xx handle will unlock A major extension with lots if air in between to $26.xx.

Markets are aligning for a capitulation move in OIL...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,434
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:02am Jan 8, 2016 6:02am
Quoting sisse
When things seemed to be getting calm for the week, .Imminent break down!!! alerts triggered in OIL one more time before NFP.... This is looking rather scary, as usual like in the last 3 extension a tiny blow below the $33.xx handle will unlock A major extension with lots if air in between to $26.xx. Markets are aligning for a capitulation move in OIL... sisse
don't know, looks scary indeed, but what doesn't after huge declines.
I feel market psychology is changing, Bears are getting tired to fight each move up and it looks like market interventions in both directions are fading.
We might have seen the bottom @ 32 imo
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,435
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:11am Jan 8, 2016 6:11am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} don't know, looks scary indeed, but what doesn't after huge declines. I feel market psychology is changing, Bears are getting tired to fight each move up and it looks like market interventions in both directions are fading. We might have seen the bottom @ 32 imo
We wont last longer with this uncertainty in OIL thats for sure. 'Minutes' are counted but from a strictly technical sense a capitulation move well make things a lot easier to trade later.

In any case, we finally tested 160.xx in the BUND. Are you still positioning for the swing?. I personally didn't take it but I still have as priority trade for this Quarter. I will be actively looking to fade 160.xx especially if we get the capitulation risk move for a quick breach up and down we go ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,436
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:17am Jan 8, 2016 6:17am
Hi sisse
Happy new year to you and everyone here.
I have a question after reading your (and others) post.

If we have a good number in NFP => equities lower and eur higher ???

Does that make sence (am I getting it right?)?

If so,, why good NFP # would bump eur up?
  • #138,437
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:19am Jan 8, 2016 6:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We wont last longer with this uncertainty in OIL thats for sure. 'Minutes' are counted but from a strictly technical sense a capitulation move well make things a lot easier to trade later. In any case, we finally tested 160.xx in the BUND. Are you still positioning for the swing?. I personally didn't take it but I still have as priority trade for this Quarter. I will be actively looking to fade 160.xx especially if we get the capitulation risk move for a quick breach up and down we go ... sisse
yes fully loaded in those BUND's on a average of 159,57 (won't add, won't close position) nothing to do anymore but indeed a capitulation move in Oil could spoil things for me....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,438
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:07am Jan 8, 2016 7:07am
...and here we go for another NFP which by itself is expected to be rather uneventful but given the major moves and levels in equities across the world and OIL its is definitively something to track as short term catalyst...

--> On the fundamental side

Not much to see on the FA front.

  1. Strong trend in employment is very solid. Expecting inline or slightly better (seasonal factors). Since we cleared hikes last month, rates expectations are not really in play either for January and only a major overshoots will bring back RMT for the upcoming weeks.
  2. A major flop will trigger some alerts about the slowing down of the world economy but give the strong employment in the US, it wont go much further than a note to track.

--> On the technical side

  1. US Equities are getting hammered flirting with a major breakdown to (1790.xx S&P for ref) all week long while OIL is in free fall and even the most stubborn bull will admit that it looks scary below the $32 handle. Dollar is pretty much moving as a collateral especially from the RISK front so none or the major underlyings are really expected to move via NFP alone.
  2. A flop / major undershoot in NFP will trigger the panic leg via risk with OIL getting hammered to the $26.xx handle on the the slowdown in economic conditions while equites will quickly follow through to complete the mid term leg in a rather quick way to 1790.xx with intermedia stop 1911.xx.
  3. The move will also unlock the extension in EURO for a quick and fast test of the 1.11xx handle as collateral of the moves in the board.
  4. Inline or overshoots will put a hard stop on the risk play and put us in extended chop zone until the end of the month while realigning to slower and more natural flows down.

--> For the actual news flows (Euro only ...for the others read backposts)

No surprises today. Euro sitting at 1.086x as widely expected for the NFP play. After the super strong intraday moves yesterday, bulls have the upper hand and are sitting comfortably for the news so map is clear for the play.

  1. A major Risk play will only add momentum to the move with "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" rules apply for a direct move 1.083x -> 1.109x with intermediate stop 1.097x.
  2. Any other scenario will trigger an uneventful news play for a zig zag play to test the highs for soft profit taking to 1.086x. Only losing 1.086x will open momentum to test the 1.07xx handle.

A rather particular NFP given the levels in play in Equities and OIL so without surprises in the number, news are set to be just a potential catalyst for the RISK play across the board.

GL all, planning to trade, already in trades or just tracking potentially one of the most important day (week) in OIL and equites for 2016

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,439
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:26am Jan 8, 2016 7:26am
Quoting sisse
...and here we go for another NFP which by itself is expected to be rather uneventful but given the major moves and levels in equities across the world and OIL its is definitively something to track as short term catalyst... --> On the fundamental side Not much to see on the FA front. Strong trend in employment is very solid. Expecting inline or slightly better (seasonal factors). Since we cleared hikes last month, rates expectations are not really in play either for January and only a major overshoots will bring back RMT for the upcoming weeks....
That explains a lot and clears my confusions, Thanks sisse
  • #138,440
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:38am Jan 8, 2016 7:38am
Hmm but 0 average hourly earnings = that does not make the report so strong
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