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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,401
  • Jan 7, 2016 8:53am Jan 7, 2016 8:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} well you are being generous in my books ... the break intraday happened around 1.078x (which is the level to track for the NFP W roll) so in reality they are just holding the 1.08xx handle (50 ticks is not that much of a cushion when failure is +250 ticks away with potential ext to +500) ... In any case, yes they are decently covered for now but at least we got the retrace short term for those of us who cleared 1.073x and want to get back in business with the Euro ... sisse
I agree and disagree. The daily bounces for me are screaming for 1.2 (which obviously will take months to develop), 500+ grind, 470+ single day, now 120+ bounce...

I'm at odds because I also have a 1.02 that needs love, and a 1.1085 that needs shorting

Just trading the techs, my heart says lower- but my head says new highs. Or maybe it's the other way around?
  • #138,402
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:02am Jan 7, 2016 9:02am
Quoting Pharm0r
my heart says lower- but my head says new highs.
if tshtf they'll all come running back to Daddy Warbucks
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,403
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:05am Jan 7, 2016 9:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} if tshtf they'll all come running back to Daddy Warbucks
and then there's war.

Greece at some point

China and/or Japan

Don't know why I even bother with a yearly outlook honestly
  • #138,404
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:06am Jan 7, 2016 9:06am
decided to add some @ 160 pulling average selling price towards 159,57

BUND D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,405
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:12am Jan 7, 2016 9:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In any case, yes they are decently covered for now but at least we got the retrace short term for those of us who cleared 1.073x and want to get back in business with the Euro ... sisse
Sisse, are you not worried that we will see a repeat of the equities crash last year that pumped the Euro to 1.17? I have cleared all of my Euro shorts and was looking to reload, however, it just seems like history is about to repeat so I am reluctant to re-enter. In fact I am beginning to wonder if I should buy the dips in the short term. A fresh HH (1.106+) to clear the soft bears before a sharp trend reversal when the panic passes over.
  • #138,406
  • Jan 7, 2016 10:04am Jan 7, 2016 10:04am
Very strong opening range. NY held steady one more time [equities and commodities] . Bastards are not going to let it go that easy .... but in my books week is FAR from over at these levels and with NFP on sight....

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} ...he daily bounces for me are screaming for 1.2 (which obviously will take months to develop), 500+ grind, 470+ single day, now 120+ bounce... I'm at odds because I also have a 1.02 that needs love, and a 1.1085 that needs shorten....
Crystal clear ... i see exactly what you are looking at ... GL...

Quoting diggo
{quote} Sisse, are you not worried that we will see a repeat of the equities crash last year that pumped the Euro to 1.17?
Well worry wouldn't be the world I will use, why? ...

First the scenario in equites looks closer (although still far) from the 2008 collapse rather than the No hike' FED disappointment that prompted that spike 1.17xx.

Second I don't have anything in these area to ride a swing from here to 1.17xx so even if we fly over 1.108x without me i really wont lose sleep over missing the first 200 ticks in a 900 ticks move as my eyes and my mid term position are aligned to the other side ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,407
  • Jan 7, 2016 10:35am Jan 7, 2016 10:35am
Quoting sisse
Very strong opening range. NY held steady one more time [equities and commodities] . Bastards are not going to let it go that easy .... but in my books week is FAR from over at these levels and with NFP on sight.... {quote} Crystal clear ... i see exactly what you are looking at ... GL... {quote} Well worry wouldn't be the world I will use, why? ... First the scenario in equites looks closer (although still far) from the 2008 collapse rather than the No hike' FED disappointment that prompted that spike 1.17xx. Second I don't have anything in these...
Sorry, I think you may have misunderstood.. You said that you re-entered shorts at these levels (1.086). I'm not sure how wide your stops are, but I thought you may be worried about a spike that could potentially put you 200+ pips underwater.

i know we had fed no hikes in play last year but it seemed the money coming out of eu equities into cash played a significant role in the spike.

i wasn't suggesting that we should be heading back to 1.17, or that you should be worried about missing out on a long opportunity for that matter.
  • #138,408
  • Jan 7, 2016 12:33pm Jan 7, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting sisse
Very strong opening range. NY held steady one more time [equities and commodities] . Bastards are not going to let it go that easy .... but in my books week is FAR from over at these levels and with NFP on sight.... {quote} Crystal clear ... i see exactly what you are looking at ... GL... {quote} Well worry wouldn't be the world I will use, why? ... First the scenario in equites looks closer (although still far) from the 2008 collapse rather than the No hike' FED disappointment that prompted that spike 1.17xx. Second I don't have anything...
I think we will break down eventually - well, I hope as Im short - BUT.... 1/3 of the US session left and I doubt we gonna get a bullish close and we would need strong one - i.e. hammer closing above 1987.xx.

In any case - could you drop a word on the "First the scenario in equites looks closer (although still far) from the 2008...". U meant TO not FROM right? = That the situation would be closer to 2008, not the post-no-hike fed spike, right? Plus meaning that if some "crash" is to evolve we dont necesarilly get the same situation in E/U, which was triggered by FED-no hike = huge no-hike E/U spike.

In connection to that... as u noted the narrative of bear market/newly of crash is getting into the main stream media - Soros up, Marc Faber as well - what would be your answer to those scenarios? I mean - Ive never been even just watching markets when any crash in history happened but some say "it feels like..... 2008". Would u say its stupid nonsense/useless guess of something which is unpredictible/just coincidence if its right or would u be willing to make some "qualified" guess too?
  • #138,409
  • Jan 7, 2016 12:35pm Jan 7, 2016 12:35pm
What i day in on the markets ... equities and oil starting to cough again for the closing session .... we haven't have this much jitters since the financial crisis. We keep grinding down without a decisive break, for today S&P losing 1940.xx (seems a bit over fetch intraday today but markets are smelling blood ...) will unlock Black Friday Lehman style moves...

Quoting diggo
{quote} ...You said that you re-entered shorts at these levels (1.086). I'm not sure how wide your stops are,... wasn't suggesting that we should be heading back to 1.17, or that you should be worried about missing out on a long opportunity for that matter.
Definitively 1.086x is the level in play for tomorrow NFP (except a massive epic blow this afternoon in US equities or OIL...). In terms of the range to the top side 1.094x is very strong and above 1.108x is still marginally open. The level barely held the opening range and the european close unlocking TA wise 1.064x with a proper NFP.

However, I wouldn't recommend you positioning blindly in currencies if you don't know what you are doing, in the doldrums of the US sessions, and especially when we have one of the biggest moves since 2008 in play in the rest of the board !!!!!. If you didn't load from the 1.078x break, there is nothing to see at these levels, the super juicy move is gone ....

For now markets keep running in hordes to cash and the way the last few legs in the Euro and Gold are panning out I take it as an important signal of what is cooking on the background ....

On the Euro for the NFP play, we'll discuss details tomorrow, but for right now ​there is only one and only one thing to track which is US equities blowing the floor !!!!.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,410
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:04pm Jan 7, 2016 1:04pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} I think we will break down eventually - well...
Yes TO not FROM .

I agree with you I personally think we already crossed the line. We will break down sooner rather than later and there is no way back until we complete a deeper correction (1790.xx is my call).

Too much noise now and everybody is getting in 'risk off' mode. The media will flood the headlines this weekend (specially if we break down today or tomorrow) which as usual will kill the momentum short term and leave us chopping around for a few weeks. I still prefer a quick and clean cut volatility move...

On the comparison with the 2008 crisis. Well not really, i think the US is in very solid shape now and Europe is about to turn the page. China and Emerging Economies are the one triggering the shake out this time so...

In terms of the move, after 7 years without one single healthy pullback fed by greed, free money and 0 rates, bastards overextended (like usual) so I personally think a correction is healthy for a more consistent path to grow rather than a dooms day scenario. If we complete the pullback I will become a PERMA BULL in Europe and US equites for the next few years (if you are into stocks.... it will be time to buy and hold after ....).

We'll see how it pans out....but after the sluggish trend up of the last 6 years we are getting some interesting action in equites ...and a bit of volatility is never a bad thing for us traders ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,411
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:18pm Jan 7, 2016 1:18pm
About to do some switching around in my Roth and 457 accounts.

Should be a comfortable retirement via equities for yours truly crossing fingers we make it another 20 years without global meltdown
  • #138,412
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:42pm Jan 7, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting sisse
What i day in on the markets ... equities and oil starting to cough again for the closing session .... we haven't have this much jitters since the financial crisis. We keep grinding down without a decisive break, for today S&P losing 1940.xx (seems a bit over fetch intraday today but markets are smelling blood ...) will unlock Black Friday Lehman style moves... {quote} Definitively 1.086x is the level in play for tomorrow NFP (except a massive epic blow this afternoon in US equities or OIL...). In terms of the range to the top side 1.094x is very...
Hello Sisse,

Maybe I get you wrong but are you exepecting that if the equities sell off continues tomorrow (through next Chinese night or NFP), that time money will not fly to EUR as today, breaking correlation ? like swapping from a panic correlation mode to a hike correlation mode ?

(I understand that for you ES 1911.xx & EUR/USD 1.0640 are on the same point on your map)

Do you expect GOLD to break correlation as well ? Thanks !
  • #138,413
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:46pm Jan 7, 2016 1:46pm
Quoting Pharm0r
About to do some switching around in my Roth and 457 accounts. Should be a comfortable retirement via equities for yours truly crossing fingers we make it another 20 years without global meltdown
Yep these dips (if we good a good one ( >10% or 2-3 x that would be great)) are the dream of the buy/hold IRA investors - hope you got some dry powder & good luck
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,414
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:53pm Jan 7, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Hello Sisse, Maybe I get you wrong but are you exepecting that if the equities sell off continues tomorrow (through next Chinese night or NFP), that time money will not fly to EUR as today, breaking correlation ? like swapping from a panic correlation mode to a hike correlation mode ? (I understand that for you ES 1911.xx & EUR/USD 1.0640 are on the same point on your map) Do you expect GOLD to break correlation as well ? Thanks !
I wish I know if tomorrow is going to be THE Day of the breakdown but we have NFP so common sense trigger has obviously a good shoot. An inline or better will kill the risk play while unlocking the more natural ebb and flow for the upcoming weeks. A miss or a major flop and we may see the risk off in full motion...

On Gold, that will be the last one to play out as long as we have RISK on the table (selloff + noise from the middle East [Iran-Saudi front], etc), we are starting to form the base for a long tern bottom so Gold will start losing it shine for trading rather soon this Quarter ....

Quoting Pharm0r
About to do some switching around in my Roth and 457 accounts. Should be a comfortable retirement via equities for yours truly crossing fingers we make it another 20 years without global meltdown
The Millennials are going to have an super easy ride for retirement (and jobs when their reach their 40s). If you are in your mid twenties, etc pensions and retirement are going to be an easy ride wherever you put your money on....

....sadly if you are in the generation(s) between the baby boomers and them you are going to get screwed from both sides for pretty much most of your productive life and have to pay the full price of the transition (recession, financial crisis, housing crisis, no savings, no retirements, and pay the price for all the reforms in between )...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,415
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:02pm Jan 7, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep these dips (if we good a good one ( >10% or 2-3 x that would be great)) are the dream of the buy/hold IRA investors - hope you got some dry powder & good luck
Have just enough to start. Counting more on the next 20 years gradually. Most of my FX proceeds get reinvested......and this years the whole shebang will probably go into my retirement accounts. As you know- pension is the rain maker for us City guys, but I'm excited for my personally managed retirement funds
Ideally i'd be able to pay bills with currancies and just reroute my paycheck straight to retirement...perhaps in another 5 years or more
  • #138,416
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:04pm Jan 7, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I wish I know if tomorrow is going to be THE Day of the breakdown but we have NFP so common sense trigger has obviously a good shoot. An inline or better will kill the risk play while unlocking the more natural ebb and flow for the upcoming weeks. A miss or a major flop and we may see the risk off in full motion... On Gold, that will be the last one to play out as long as we have RISK on the table (selloff + noise from the middle East [Iran-Saudi front], etc), we are starting to form the base for a long tern bottom so Gold will start losing...
29, just hitting my professional stride in Engineering for the local Government. Girlfriend however is a millennial, she's a business major. Girl has it made @ 24....some are luckier than others.
  • #138,417
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:09pm Jan 7, 2016 2:09pm
...here we go for the closing range...equities and oil with full force for a last chance to crack it today -2.50 % and counting ,...Nothing to do here but sit tight and wait to see if it pans out... Looking at the massive move in the euro on every tick down in equites its just scary to say the least ....

Whatever happens today at the close. Credit where is due to all who rode the euro leg form 1.073x. Thumbs up and no discussion ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,418
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:18pm Jan 7, 2016 2:18pm
sisse,

If I may bother you.....

If the equities are unraveling; then, why would US DOLLAR be following. I would think going to CASH would strengthen the DOLLAR as with EU/DAX. I am not understanding why EU is rising so much as the Dollar drops against equities.

It appears we are close to my .0940 area I was going to take a SHORT position. However, I am going to wait as this could go higher as US equities unfold. I still would like to take a SHORT position somewhere around here as it is a matter of time before DOLLAR strengthens against EURO.

I see the 1790 being a good call as there is STRONG support there and its about a 50% retracement from Bottom and Top of this long trend in ES.

I did take your insight into account with regards to the equity market and made adjustments when ES was around 2,062-80 in my retirement accounts. I am a GENERATION X. Within a few yrs of BABY BOOMERS. Hoping I have enough in the next 15 to 20 yrs to retire well.
  • #138,419
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:23pm Jan 7, 2016 2:23pm
this closing is worth popcorn and coke not so much time left. hope we dont get happy end
  • #138,420
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:39pm Jan 7, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting chester123
this closing is worth popcorn and coke not so much time left. hope we dont get happy end
Real money buying at the close. 1940.xx is going to hold for today....3er largest Weekly selloff in equities since 2010 ...but we still have one more day ... Euro also reached 1.094x (superb move!!!)...

We are pretty much done for the day. Sadly Asia is in control overnight and it will make it harder to follow for those of us without 24/7 branches across the world ...jej jeje..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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