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AUD/USD

  • #94,461
  • Jan 5, 2016 5:53pm Jan 5, 2016 5:53pm
Quoting MitchL
swap was $18.72 for 2 lots
that sounds much more reasonable. It's likely that they charge extra on certain days to cover for the weekend as well. eg IG normally charge / pay about triple swap on Thursday morning but it can vary due to public holidays. It's not something they communicate well.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #94,462
  • Jan 5, 2016 11:38pm Jan 5, 2016 11:38pm
Here is my View on AUDUSD :

If price breaks the down , then the next demand is seen at 0.6753,
but if price breaks up , next supply is seen at 1.7799.

Lets see how price moves during NFP, to get a direction.
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  • #94,463
  • Jan 6, 2016 1:02am Jan 6, 2016 1:02am
support equality of waves
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  • #94,464
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:40am Jan 6, 2016 2:40am
Quoting amy4x
Here is my View on AUDUSD : If price breaks the down , then the next demand is seen at 0.6753, but if price breaks up , next supply is seen at 1.7799. Lets see how price moves during NFP, to get a direction. {image}
What about the big support at 0.69???? the low of last year, Price is going to ignore it and go through it?
  • #94,465
  • Jan 6, 2016 3:02am Jan 6, 2016 3:02am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} What about the big support at 0.69???? the low of last year, Price is going to ignore it and go through it?
I believe we could see some new lows because Aussie's big brother China ain't doing that well... China's Monday market chaos has led some selling pressure on Aussie too. Just my opinion.
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #94,466
  • Jan 6, 2016 5:28pm Jan 6, 2016 5:28pm
may be Aussie soon around 0.6950...before interest rate decision
The Average Discount Everything
  • #94,467
  • Jan 6, 2016 5:50pm Jan 6, 2016 5:50pm
Quoting diggo
{quote}September 2015

I believe we are only at the beginning of a temporary bull run (1-3 months) barring a catastrophic collapse in China.

We have rock solid multi-year support at 0.685x 0.687x. I had a pending buy order at 0.686 but we didn't quite make it. Perhaps in December we will break below this level with a US rate hike.
Haven't been here for a few months. Bulls had a good run but the mid-long term leg has resumed. Spectacular moves in the Aussie this week with China causing all sorts of problems.. We have only seen the tip of the iceberg so far.

We are heading straight for the major historical support level at 0.687x. Bulls enjoyed a nice 480 pip bounce off the first test. It may bounce a second time, but a break below is imminent this year.
  • #94,468
  • Jan 6, 2016 6:28pm Jan 6, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting hesron
may be Aussie soon around 0.6950...before interest rate decision
I hate to say it but you could be correct....will anyone give me odds on todays pivot S1 holding as Support for a retracement in shorter term?
  • #94,469
  • Edited 6:43pm Jan 6, 2016 6:30pm | Edited 6:43pm
Today's S1 was also the last daily swing low point (Zone) in Nov too...correct?

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  • #94,470
  • Jan 6, 2016 6:47pm Jan 6, 2016 6:47pm
charting time..
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Cheers
Al
Dream, believe,fight for it and you will achieve and NEVER EVER GIVE UP!
  • #94,471
  • Jan 6, 2016 7:47pm Jan 6, 2016 7:47pm
Quoting Almo2312
charting time..{image} Cheers Al
Nice !


Honestly i wouldn't advise anyone to be short here unless there is a clean drop below support. Strong support at .70.
  • #94,472
  • Jan 6, 2016 7:59pm Jan 6, 2016 7:59pm
For those looking to Short Aussie why not look at the AUD/NZD cross?

1. AUD is suffering on the back of China
2. NZD is less exposed to China
3. Yield is better on NZD than AUD hence you will earn swap points for being short AUD/NZD
  • #94,473
  • Jan 6, 2016 9:12pm Jan 6, 2016 9:12pm
Quoting lasty
For those looking to Short Aussie why not look at the AUD/NZD cross? 1. AUD is suffering on the back of China 2. NZD is less exposed to China 3. Yield is better on NZD than AUD hence you will earn swap points for being short AUD/NZD

I would say the NZD is a short also. look at it

shorting 1 down currency against a slightly less down currency seems like a bad bet.

I would the eur is maybe better to look at as a cross pair
  • #94,474
  • Jan 6, 2016 10:58pm Jan 6, 2016 10:58pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Nice ! Honestly i wouldn't advise anyone to be short here unless there is a clean drop below support. Strong support at .70.
0.70 level is weak support in my opinion.

Strongly advising newbies not to attempt catching a falling knife here. We are experiencing strong alerts of a panic leg with China, Oil and Equities leading the way. Commodity currencies are going to continue to be hit very hard in the short term. Not advising shorts either. If you are not loaded from above 0.72 you have missed the boat.. Otherwise you may get caught up in wild volatility.

0.687x is the only major level I will be tracking in the short term. A weekly close below this level will open a fast and furious leg down. Experienced bulls may attempt catching the knife on a wick extension below 0.687. I won't be one of them. I had a pending long order at 0.686 in September. I missed the bull run. Larger bears have loaded up above 0.73 and I'm not sure if 0.687 will hold this time.
  • #94,475
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:09am Jan 7, 2016 5:09am
Back from holidays, seems I closed all my shorts too early as I didn't want to have anything open on my break. I knew this was coming, I'm sad I missed it all but had a great holiday.

I'm thinking of staying away until this China stuff sorts itself out also back at work next week too, so a bit going on.

I am thinking we will see the .68 but will it come back up and hang around this .69 - .73 channel or stay lower? What are people doing?
  • #94,476
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:01pm Jan 7, 2016 1:01pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} 0.70 level is weak support in my opinion. Strongly advising newbies not to attempt catching a falling knife here. We are experiencing strong alerts of a panic leg with China, Oil and Equities leading the way. Commodity currencies are going to continue to be hit very hard in the short term. Not advising shorts either. If you are not loaded from above 0.72 you have missed the boat.. Otherwise you may get caught up in wild volatility. 0.687x is the only major level I will be tracking in the short term. A weekly close below this level will open...
this is a well thought out and well worded post. thanks for your input
  • #94,477
  • Jan 7, 2016 4:07pm Jan 7, 2016 4:07pm
Construction levels slump which is a sure sign that Australia is falling off a cliff in 2016.

.70 cents doesn't reflect the fundamentals and I sense a few have been caught long and doubling up in hope that its a temporary hiccup.

Those who haven't experienced whats like to to live in the 60's start swinging - we will be there for awhile.
  • #94,478
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:57pm Jan 7, 2016 5:57pm
First week of 2016, interesting week for sure. So much volatility.

Shall leave market to make up their mind first before jumping in. Need to have a clean bias about this pair first.
  • #94,479
  • Jan 7, 2016 7:29pm Jan 7, 2016 7:29pm
Quoting SkyrEk
First week of 2016, interesting week for sure. So much volatility. Shall leave market to make up their mind first before jumping in. Need to have a clean bias about this pair first.
Let us know when you figure it out. In the meantime, we will work with what we have.

Downtrend channel on weekly, broke trendline on daily, possible retrace and test on 4 Hour

Bears sell high and bulls buy low, that's all

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #94,480
  • Jan 7, 2016 7:36pm Jan 7, 2016 7:36pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Let us know when you figure it out. In the meantime, we will work with what we have. Downtrend channel on weekly, broke trendline on daily, possible retrace and test on 4 Hour Bears sell high and bulls buy low, that's all {image} {image} {image}


The lows of this week coincides with 2015 Sept lows. Good R/R in my humble opinion
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