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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #13,841
  • Jan 4, 2016 6:02pm Jan 4, 2016 6:02pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Same short started again, some price and stats.
I want to do the same...but, I'll hold my long. If it breaks beneath the demand zone I'll have a sell waiting down there.
  • #13,842
  • Edited Jan 5, 2016 2:30am Jan 4, 2016 9:12pm | Edited Jan 5, 2016 2:30am
Very suspicious of the gbp/jpy movement. It spiked to the key 176, but its movements are in line with the shanghai Composite index. Index was expected to (and did) open in the negative, the sudden movements back up followed with announcement by China to directly intervene using its central bank, and the jerky llittle up and down movements by the index to test below...

I get the feeling that the spike up is more of a incident of circumstance rather than intraday fundamentals, which seem to point to a retest of 175 when we had a sudden spike up which coincided with an announcement by China to intervene in the market to provide liquidity (I think this is the largest injection of funds since september 2015).

Still, anything can happen in the intraday, and state intervention can last days or weeks (cough SNB cough), so we'll see.

I'll be eyeing the shanghai index with the yen pairs and the asian markets.

Still, nothing concrete thus far....I hate days like this, when all we have to infer are rumors of state intervention for weird movements.

Update : Rumors say that the Chinese are buying usd/jpy....if that's true, it's not too surprising, since yen is a currency rival for the chinese renminbi, and they always shared inverse relationships in prices. Problem is, assuming this is to be true means that I'll be competing against state intervention for a intraday trade.....damn.

Shanghai composite index as of right now when I uploaded:
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USD/JPY rate when I uploaded the photo
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GBP/JPY rates when I uploaded the photo
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China's intervention in its market seem to be forcing the yen pairs up.....goddamn it, China. Stop doing that and let the short sellers have their day.
  • #13,843
  • Jan 4, 2016 9:43pm Jan 4, 2016 9:43pm
Anyone online? I'd love to hear your opinions on the comparison between China's market intervention and the prices of the yen pairs. Do you think I'm making the right assumptions based on what I posted previously, or...?
  • #13,844
  • Jan 4, 2016 9:56pm Jan 4, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting Vermillion
Anyone online? I'd love to hear your opinions on the comparison between China's market intervention and the prices of the yen pairs. Do you think I'm making the right assumptions based on what I posted previously, or...?
I'm trying to catch a few ZZs before the next NewYork 4h candle close in a couple hours. Quick glance at your stuff, seems to be good stuff.
  • #13,845
  • Jan 4, 2016 10:32pm Jan 4, 2016 10:32pm
Hey, guys

I was selling back to 175.44....but lost one trade and jumped over and went long on NZD USD...
  • #13,846
  • Jan 4, 2016 10:37pm Jan 4, 2016 10:37pm
Quoting Vermillion
Anyone online? I'd love to hear your opinions on the comparison between China's market intervention and the prices of the yen pairs. Do you think I'm making the right assumptions based on what I posted previously, or...?
you might be spot on with your assumptions problem is we wont know until we know lol

but, if youre playing gbp weakness then maybe its best to find another pair that you dont need to worry about the chinese acting funky. GBPUSD or GBPAUD? I havent looked at the sched yet but i think we get some data in a few hours. if you must trade the gbp then that might be a good thing to base your trade around?

strange pairing and im not sure if I will even trade it, but my friend told me that AUDCAD broke a rising channel. i figure ill take a better look at it when i wake up in a few hours but it looks kinda nice right now.
  • #13,847
  • Jan 4, 2016 10:47pm Jan 4, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Hey, guys I was selling back to 175.44....but lost one trade and jumped over and went long on NZD USD...
What's your target price on nu? I was actually looking to drop a short on it
  • #13,848
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:31pm Jan 4, 2016 11:31pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Same short started again, some price and stats.
GBP/JPY rejected 176, as expected, and China's markets seem to not buy the PRC's attempts to forcefully prop them up. Still, it's a gradual decline, and we're only going back into the intraday trend that was ALREADY ongoing and in the process of retesting 175 when China decided to drop the bomb.

Still holding that short from 175.60.

Quoting Vermillion
Macro is useless at the start of the year. Let the markets roll whever they want; we just have to pick up the pieces left over. Problem is, I missed the buy-in price at 175 by sleeping, but I don't want to go long here at 175.60. the area around 176/175.60 might turn down and retest 175. .
Sad thing is, I would have been correct if China didn't start its market opening with intervention. We hit a high of 175.90-ish and proceeded to fall below to likely test 175.....until China shot a mini bazooka into the market. To be fair, even with the unexpected developments, there was no real break above 176, so there's that.

Still eyeing 175. If it breaks, looking to 174.00/173.60 as next optimal targets. If not, wait and see with profits locked it.

Edit: Corrected typos. wrote in 177 instead of 176, and 176 instead of 175. Didn't make sense with the rest of the statement.
  • #13,849
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:37pm Jan 4, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} GBP/JPY rejected 176, as expected, and China's markets seem to not buy the PRC's attempts to forcefully prop them up. Still, it's a gradual decline, and we're only going back into the intraday trend that was ALREADY ongoing and in the process of retesting 175 when China decided to drop the bomb. Still holding that short from 175.60. {quote} Sad thing is, I would have been correct if China didn't start its market opening with intervention. We hit a high of 175.90-ish and proceeded to fall below to likely test 175.....until China shot a mini...
Hey, just want to remind you about this. Japan could surprise us soon

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=572512

I really like your observations above though I think it's best to keep in mind that correlations come and go
  • #13,850
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:43pm Jan 4, 2016 11:43pm
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Hey, just want to remind you about this. Japan could surprise us soon http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=572512
That is a cause for concern, but it addresses long term inflation target, and with those things, central banks usually take their time barring a sudden event. I kept note of it, though.

But right now I need to know whether the fall will resume; retesting 175 was optimal, but with intraday fundamentals changed, I'm not too sure. London session will definitely bring something though.

Just wait and see, I guess. Same as always.
  • #13,851
  • Jan 5, 2016 12:01am Jan 5, 2016 12:01am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} That is a cause for concern, but it addresses long term inflation target, and with those things, central banks usually take their time barring a sudden event. I kept note of it, though. But right now I need to know whether the fall will resume; retesting 175 was optimal, but with intraday fundamentals changed, I'm not too sure. London session will definitely bring something though. Just wait and see, I guess. Same as always.
In my opinion it's not out of the question to see a drop under 175 and into 173/172.78 before more up-moves happen.

Purely on the technical side, big boys like to bait longs and then kill them with these types of moves before moving up again. Makes for some good psychological trauma and bad decisions for everyone

For today/tomorrow I'm long and want to get out ~177. Then gonna see if we get 178.3, maybe short from there if conditions are right. If it comes straight down... well, what can you do
  • #13,852
  • Jan 5, 2016 12:33am Jan 5, 2016 12:33am
I have signals indicating reversal. waiting to see if daily trend line breaks to the upside for a longer term buy.
  • #13,853
  • Jan 5, 2016 1:27am Jan 5, 2016 1:27am
Yep, a short is good too.....the equity market over there is a jumpin' ...it may be a spurt....but it really shot up
The whole world is using it for the carry trade
  • #13,854
  • Jan 5, 2016 2:31am Jan 5, 2016 2:31am
Quoting Vermillion
Very suspicious of the gbp/jpy movement. It spiked to the key 176, but its movements are in line with the shanghai Composite index. Index was expected to (and did) open in the negative, the sudden movements back up followed with announcement by China to directly intervene using its central bank, and the jerky llittle up and down movements by the index to test below... I get the feeling that the spike up is more of a incident of circumstance rather than intraday fundamentals, which seem to point to a retest of 175 when we had a sudden spike up which...

Yeah, screw you, PRC politburo. Even with state intervention, the short sellers have the flow....let's see what happens on 175. We may break through it...I think U.K. construction data may clarify the direction; it's coming about an hour.

Same short from 175.60, same targets. It's about time.
  • #13,855
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:47am Jan 5, 2016 3:47am
Quoting Hickson
Almost knocked out of the remaining long ... funny gap with this broker - might be because they were closed on Friday. {image}
Busted ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #13,856
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:51am Jan 5, 2016 3:51am
Very interesting level. I would better wait to get into this one.
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Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #13,857
  • Jan 5, 2016 4:12am Jan 5, 2016 4:12am
Due to the price action at 176 ,I closed my long. Glad I did. Got two sells in.
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  • #13,858
  • Jan 5, 2016 4:13am Jan 5, 2016 4:13am
And into NZD/USD as well.
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  • #13,859
  • Jan 5, 2016 5:50am Jan 5, 2016 5:50am
Trying to break below 174.70/60. If it breaks, 174.10 +/- 10 pips is the next zone, followed by 173.60, in my opinion. If it goes back up, same fibonacci retracement.

Locked in profits with my sell from 175.60. Just let it run. Going back to sleep. It's dawn here. G'night.
  • #13,860
  • Jan 5, 2016 7:26am Jan 5, 2016 7:26am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} There are still orders to be filled, of all that move friday 1.07 was a runaway level. {quote} (E/U) profile, check 1.07, missing trading activity {image}
almost there. 1.0700
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