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  • #138,321
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:27am Jan 4, 2016 11:27am
What a great start of the year !!!! ...

Quoting sisse
...early alerts triggered!!! for as early as today .... S&P losing 2062.xx [check] will unlock imminent break down to 1987.xx [check]in US equites for the hikes play ... and it will 100% sure carry the rest of the board worldwide.....
Quoting sisse
... US equites (S&P) held 2062.xx which is the RAIN MAKER for the hikes play / W close. Holding, will pretty much lock the highs in equites (2100.xx) for the foreseeable future (Q2/Q3 2016). ....
Important update from the hikes play in equites. Clearing main target with the test 1987.xx in equities with Europe going home and trailing rest for the "just in case" given China jitters.

@Fool superb moves today ...i hope you started the year with the right foot ...

On the Euro, just moving as collateral of the selloff in equites. Tracking soft 1.082x for the roll.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,322
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:31am Jan 4, 2016 11:31am
Quoting sisse
Tracking soft 1.082x for the roll. sisse
Hi , Sisse do you expecting euro to deep lower ?
  • #138,323
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:34am Jan 4, 2016 11:34am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Hi , Sisse do you expecting euro to deep lower ?
I don't have any changes in the Euro trade. Nothing new has happened yet this year neither in the FA or TA side affecting the pair so "nothing to see" at the current levels...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,324
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:36am Jan 4, 2016 11:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't have any changes in the Euro trade. Nothing new has happened yet this year neither in the FA or TA side affecting the pair so "nothing to see" at the current levels... sisse
Thanks for the update .
  • #138,325
  • Jan 4, 2016 12:53pm Jan 4, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting hathor
Hi! Would be harmonic: {image} (...and would be nice to short.) Time will tell. On the other hand: under orange 0.0 Fib will look for buy signals.
Price dropped under 0.0 orange fib. New low should attract more bears, which should bring the mighty daily buy signal. Time will tell.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,326
  • Jan 4, 2016 1:42pm Jan 4, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't have any changes in the Euro trade. Nothing new has happened yet this year neither in the FA or TA side affecting the pair so "nothing to see" at the current levels... sisse
Sisse, FA question. How u evaluate the "slack" (this FED speak is funny ) in US manufacturing sector. As far as I know its just small part of US economy - but for some time the numbers are not good - I havent been in this business long enough to really evaluate what it means FA-wise. So there is some downward trent in manufacturing = is it strong enough (as per today) to change/influence the overall FA outlook in case of USA? I bet the Atlanta FED GDP index has been revised down again due to today numbers - so GDP for Q4 does not look so rosy =) implications for FED?
  • #138,327
  • Jan 4, 2016 2:11pm Jan 4, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Price dropped under 0.0 orange fib. New low should attract more bears, which should bring the mighty daily buy signal. Time will tell.
If i remember correctly the last time you got caught in the same area fading a major move down ...my 2 cents, watch-out that at least the current intraday move is not coming from the euro but from a potential avalanche worldwide in equites ...

GL at least in the short term as if we go on a run it can be fast and furious given the levels in play in equites....

Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, FA question. How u evaluate the "slack" (this FED speak is funny ) in US manufacturing sector. As far as I know its just small part of US economy - but for some time the numbers are not good - ...GDP index has been revised down again due to today numbers - so GDP for Q4 does not look so rosy =) implications for FED?
Indeed US Manufacturing has been prolly the only major sector consistently posting bad numbers (and in a consistent downtrend) since late October. What in my opinion is a bit more interesting is that the bad numbers started in China early in the summer and moved to Europe (UK especially) and later to Germany (this is key here with China) and then the US.

It maybe a tip of the iceberg or just a normal sectorial cycle down give the downturn in emerging countries (and China especially). Its worth to keep a close eye in case things don't bottom down rather soon or if we start seeing softening in other sectors.

For now just confirming the clear slowdown to the FA notes until more direct and correlate data from Q4 2015 / Q1 2016 is available ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,328
  • Jan 4, 2016 4:14pm Jan 4, 2016 4:14pm
Literally saved by the bell!!!.

US equities held the close with a strong close but things are starting to look very shaky.

Bulls are now officially hanging by their fingernails. A soft wind (overnight from Asia?) could be enough to blow the lows. S&P wont hold another push down and losing 1987.xx will unlock a quick test to the lows of last year and a bit below (1790.xx to complete the mid term play) in a rather fast and furious leg with NFP.

All eyes on Asian Equites in the upcoming session(s) via China as they will carry the board. In all cases, US equites are aligning to set rather early the LOW of this year ...thats one of the best trades this Quarter....

On the Euro, as expected we rolled 1.082x and there is not much to see at these levels.... so same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,329
  • Jan 4, 2016 6:02pm Jan 4, 2016 6:02pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
Have a nice year everyone.GL in 2016
H1, draw fib from 1.1059 swing high to 1.0904 swing low on the 15th of December

Look at the norm reaction- and now where the target lies in relation to ADR/AWR
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  • #138,330
  • Jan 4, 2016 6:48pm Jan 4, 2016 6:48pm
Quoting sisse
@Fool superb moves today ...i hope you started the year with the right foot ...
Back at ya, slick. I was ready for a post-Dec FOMC sell-off & positioned for that in a variety of Jan VIX bullish spreads. I took off some good profits today but in truth I need another day or two like today, and this week, to get all I deserve. Very hard to get a sell-off that lasts more than a day or two in these modern times when the muthurfecking CB's are all in the markets, but we'll see. ^VIX > 26 will make me happy and ^VIX to 30 will put me off to a stellar start for the year. Otherwise I have been throwing change at USO call spreads for a move in WTI to $45 or higher by Feb opex & later. I lost money on the same trade last year, more or less - one of these years oil will rally.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,331
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:14am Jan 5, 2016 3:14am
Quoting sisse
What a great start of the year !!!! ... {quote} {quote} Important update from the hikes play in equites. Clearing main target with the test 1987.xx in equities with Europe going home and trailing rest for the "just in case" given China jitters. @Fool superb moves today ...i hope you started the year with the right foot ... On the Euro, just moving as collateral of the selloff in equites. Tracking soft 1.082x for the roll. sisse
That's one way to kick off a year and what a day to start trading.

With normalization kicking off/ waning DAX stimulus unwind effect, it's a regular flight to quality on the dollar side this time with that broad equity sell-off (similar action going down right now as I type.) and all those equity ranges extended in a single day everywhere and will probably play within that range for much of the year if they don't manage to extend further in the coming days (already knocking on yearly levels on Nikkei and not far away on DAX.)

What do you make of the China situation? It looks like leaving the market to find a more natural/less artificially propped up bottom may not be an option- certainly at this stage. So they're probably pulling out all the stops to make even a temporary one and see if things can settle on the data side?
  • #138,332
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:19am Jan 5, 2016 3:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} If i remember correctly the last time you got caught in the same area fading a major move down ...my 2 cents, watch-out that at least the current intraday move is not coming from the euro but from a potential avalanche worldwide in equites ... GL at least in the short term as if we go on a run it can be fast and furious given the levels in play in equites.... {quote}
Thanks, I'll watch out.
According to H4 time frame: today's top [1.08388] should be cracked soon (maybe just after cracking yesterday's low [1.07811]).
If there will be no sign of turning here, I'll flee from my positions...and wait for the Daily signal (patiently ).
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,333
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:31am Jan 5, 2016 3:31am
Forex Factory:

Avg Entry Long: 1.1101 Short: 1.0865

Bear retailers are in the money, so market makers should act soon imho.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,334
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:51am Jan 5, 2016 3:51am
Quoting hathor
Forex Factory: Avg Entry Long: 1.1101 Short: 1.0865 Bear retailers are in the money, so market makers should act soon imho.
Don't you think medium term fundamentals are with the EU bears (specifically US$ strength)?
  • #138,335
  • Jan 5, 2016 4:28am Jan 5, 2016 4:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Definitively the story of the day. What an opening for the year .... Tracking closely NY reaction but if we get a second selloff round in China in only 6 months.... For now just trying to digest the massive moves and cautiously tracking further developments but "where there's smoke there's fire" a second consistent major selloff in China this month will make revaluate my views sisse
copper has lead china forecast for years. copper, cat and wallmart told me what time it was. the tiger is just a paper model. a mule that shits fast, dont shit long. w/o china demand for all the other stuff drops.. ghost cities are still ghost cities. later u have a mostly young male population with little hope to get a girl. pissed off the girlfriend bot, made in japan. has stopped working and the warranty has expired. another shot at the peasants beating at the castle doors. we got some volatile times on the horizon.. the arab kings and the chinese or even puttin may be looking for a new address.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,336
  • Jan 5, 2016 4:43am Jan 5, 2016 4:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} copper has lead china forecast for years. copper, cat and wallmart told me what time it was. the tiger is just a paper model. a mule that shits fast, dont shit long. w/o china demand for all the other stuff drops.. ghost cities are still ghost cities. later u have a mostly young male population with little hope to get a girl. pissed off the girlfriend bot, made in japan. has stopped working and the warranty has expired. another shot at the peasants beating at the castle doors. we got some volatile times on the horizon.. the arab kings and...
on a puttin note or any other leader facing hard times. the answer to staying in power has always been. find a scapegoat. find a wolf to have the people unite against.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,337
  • Jan 5, 2016 7:26am Jan 5, 2016 7:26am
...and that will do it ...For those on the Euro trade:

Double clearing on the test 1.073x. Clearing final target on the hikes bumpy and delayed (cause of holidays) short term play (1.103x) and also clearing first soft target in the mid term swing (1.097x for those following ... IMARICH?)....

China decided to flood the markets agains so if NY refuse to play ball we are pretty much set for intraday chop zone till NFP....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,338
  • Edited 8:00am Jan 5, 2016 7:27am | Edited 8:00am
Any views on short term gold?

Chart: Fib confluences work perfectly on gold. The decision area 1081-85 seems to be reached today (again). Yesterday D1 close looks bearish. US open can be the key - if no risk off and strong opening in SP/DAX its gonna hold - bottom and lower in few days?.
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  • #138,339
  • Edited 8:52am Jan 5, 2016 7:55am | Edited 8:52am
sisse,

It's so nice to be thought of after a rough last year exposing my ignorance here. Thanks for the shout out to draw me in again to reveal what I have done. Lol

I held onto to my 4 positions SHORT which one was from Dec 7 at .0800 and I have been in this trade all the way up to 1.106x. I can't say it didn't squeeze a little seeing as how I added to my SHORTS at .0875, .0930 and .0957 (Low leverage in these positions). I have CLEARED ALL positions at .0748 as I had a LIMIT ORDER set for .0735. It did not reach it exactly and I was not going to be greedy for a few pips.

TIP: One thing I have learned here from sisse is I don't have to get every pip. If it reaches your target (or close to); then, the trade is done and wait to SEE HOW PRICE RESPONDS.

The reason I added to my SHORTS was to allow me to exit early if PA dropped to .0808 level AGAIN and I needed to get out of my first position due to a change in how EU was responding to FA or Techs and continue to the 1.12xx handle.

I was patient with this trade and allowed it to develop. I was wrong in originally entering it in the first place. Firstly, after doing my MAP that sisse challenged me to do, I discovered .0808 was a STRONG R or S on Weekly and Monthly TF. I didn't wait to see how PA would respond on the FA nor TECH. I just jumped in "believing"price would go back down. I had my TF and trades wrong. Trading a SHORT/MID TERM LEG against a INTRA DAY news play. ALL MACRO and MICRO TF were in play and I entered foolishly. However, my MAP showed me the possibility of it returning on the SHORT/MID TERM LEG and I stayed in due to sisse's input regading his market analysis.

And, now I will share my bad thinking. I want to enter a trade with LOW Leverage at this current price and ride it back up to the .097X handle. However, I do not know if PA will do that with issues with China and Equities unrolling. I know DOLLAR strength continues to brew and is getting stronger. But, the good news is my new thinking has led me to watch and wait now to position for another SHORT. It definitely will be more calculated at a better price or that is my MAP and Plan.

*** PA has now retraced back to the .0737 area and I could have gained some extra pips; but, I didn't know what Price would do and took my profit. However, I so want to go in LOW leverage and ride this back up to .094x/.097x handle. This is tuff to not enter if PA forms a SUPPORT here. But, I need to see how NY is going to respond in about 30 minutes or so. One thing I learned is not to trade now as no one is really trading at this time and its mainly minions. This is what I did wrong on Dec 7 as well. If I had waited on NY, then, I would have known the direction SHORT TERM. I will wait!

Thanks again sisse for the insight as I watch DAILY for your input!!! And, I am ready for any lashings in mistakes made if I exited to soon or with my bad thinking I shared here!

All the Best to you!
  • #138,340
  • Jan 5, 2016 9:45am Jan 5, 2016 9:45am
Nice day! Had some EU shorts stacked, closed all at 1.074x. A little early it seems, but still happy with profits in my pocket! Regrouping and checking out new opportunities. Nice start of the year for me.


*edit: @IMARICH1, good to see it all worked out in the end with your shorts. Not sure about your "EU long" plan. Good that you thought it over and changed your mind. I mean, you certainly could think contrarian, some have success with this but I don't believe in it long term. I still think the trend is more powerful than market conspiracy theories.
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