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Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?

  • #341
  • Jan 3, 2016 1:57am Jan 3, 2016 1:57am
damn i love trading
“Hope is [a] bogus emotion that only costs you money.” - PETER LYNCH
  • #342
  • Jan 3, 2016 2:45am Jan 3, 2016 2:45am
Hello,
I love trading because it is not only about almost non-limited income but also more freedom lifestyle I could have been imaged.
To compare with other jobs, forex traders seem find it harder to make money. But once they make it then more and more values will be added to their success.
So I really think it is worthy to try your career in forex industry.
  • #343
  • Jan 3, 2016 2:54am Jan 3, 2016 2:54am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} I can't agree more. I have been trading for 2 years now (almost). Started off with demo got familiar with the platform, the lingo. Moved onto "nano" live account. Started trading minuscule lots. Still nothing. I was going nowhere. Things weren't going as I planned. Signed up with fx forum. Finished their school. Read everything (educational material) that I could find on forex. Everything except systems and indicators. I was never a fan of a system that promised quick money. Found trading buddies on the forum that I signed up ....
Select trading style according to your account size.First back test on atleast one year chart.Risk is small and constant.
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -626
  • #344
  • Jan 3, 2016 2:57am Jan 3, 2016 2:57am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} If a trader cannot develop a profitable mechanical system he probably should abandon technical analysis / chart reading altogether. Its very unsettling that many people here would choose the false hope that discretionary trading gives rather than accept that they haven't found an edge. This is just my observation of FF folk, obviously there are many successful traders and fund managers who use discretionary approaches. To me, and anyone who really understands trading systems, speculation is ultimately discretionary regardless of the approach....

We don't comment on whether a mechanical system is profitable or not first.

Not all trader can develop a mechanical system

A person who may develop a mechanical system does NOT mean that person can do chart reading or do technical analysis in a relevant manner.

A person who can program a mechanical system does NOT mean that person is a trader.

A trader who can do relevant chart reading may find it difficult to code what they see on the charts, as certain information flow they see may be harder to explain in a mechanical manner.
  • #345
  • Edited 3:16am Jan 3, 2016 3:03am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} there absolutely nothing to clarify. the statement is crystal clear: there are things not suitable for everybody. unless you want to discuss just for the sake of discussion. there are people who will never become successful business owners. there are people who will never become champions in a specific branch of sport. there are people who will never become a general and so on. and there are people who will never become a successful forex trader. it does not matter you trade manually or through ea. if you are risking money in the market...

The "Startup Business Failure Rate" info-graph shows that the better business to survive after 4years of business is in fact "Finance" with 58%.

We can said "Forex Trading" is in "Finance".

We just have to switch from being a "Forex Trader" to a "Seller/Forex Platform/Dealer/Broker/Bank/etc" to have a better chance of succeeding in Forex Finance Business.


Also just like not everybody will become a successful trader, or a successful business owner, many also will not become a successful employee.
  • #346
  • Edited 3:49am Jan 3, 2016 3:19am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} - going short at the resistance/support without confirmation = burned account - trading at retracements without confirmation = burned account - trading the stupidest pattern in whole universe, the head and shoulders, without confirmation = burned account - listening to gurus (especially self-proclaimed ones) = burned account Learning begins? You guessed it - when you start trading confirmations. If you REALLY want to get ahead of market and predict the price without confirmation first, you're better of putting all your bucks on barcelona...
If "burned account" after these 4 methods that you have mentioned, it is NOT due to these methods.

It can be due to wrongly classifying the reasons for the "burned account'.

Figure out more on what really caused those "burned account".



Regarding to what you mentioned about Confirmation First, this is depending on how much time gap between your Signal versus the Confirmation.
And also what market you are playing.
Here, assuming playing Forex market, your Confirmation must be quite fast after the Signal, else the fast move of that forex pair may be over within a few minutes.

Sometimes, you need think of Confirmation as a signal showing that it will not go the opposite way, rather than a Confirmation going that way which may be too late.

eg1. If Long, you see a Signal and a Confirmation that suggests price will NOT go lower. This is the earlier Confirmation, maybe feel less secured, but more pips to go up, and less pips to go down.

eg2. If Long, you see a Signal and a Confirmation that suggests price will go higher. This is the later Confirmation, maybe feel more secured, but less pips to go up, and more pips to go down.
  • #347
  • Jan 3, 2016 4:15am Jan 3, 2016 4:15am
Quoting foxybunny
....Regarding to what you mentioned about Confirmation .....
Market makers(MM) decide about price action and timing for that....So what retail trader (RT) is confirming if that doesn't depend on her/him? Most of the time retail trader(RT) helps market maker (MM) to buy low and sell high....if RT have short position with 100 pips stop loss (buying) certainly MM will go that high to sell to that RT who is willing to buy so high.....Then RT complains that market is manipulating , that trading is random etc...Consequences come with that ...
  • #348
  • Jan 3, 2016 4:47am Jan 3, 2016 4:47am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Market makers(MM) decide about price action and timing for that....So what retail trader (RT) is confirming if that doesn't depend on her/him? Most of the time retail trader(RT) helps market maker (MM) to buy low and sell high....if RT have short position with 100 pips stop loss (buying) certainly MM will go that high to sell to that RT who is willing to buy so high.....Then RT complains that market is manipulating , that trading is random etc...Consequences come with that ...
how do you know that?
is it just theory or really happen in the market?
“Hope is [a] bogus emotion that only costs you money.” - PETER LYNCH
  • #349
  • Jan 3, 2016 6:13am Jan 3, 2016 6:13am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Read this, replacing "stocks" with "forex". My understanding is this: The implication is that, IF price movement was a completely random walk, then all profits and losses would be 100% 'luck' no matter what analysis/entries/exits/MM you might use, and that (due to br0ker costs) all retail traders would be mathematically bound to eventually lose. However, if markets are manipulated to the extent that exploitable patterns are created, then they are definitely NOT...
, as always.

The market is not random, it is a stochastically (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic) fractal-mapped creature.
See also http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractal.asp

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #350
  • Jan 3, 2016 6:17am Jan 3, 2016 6:17am
Hey guys, I've read all things you wrote regarding confirmation and here is what I meant:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 82 KB

Since I trade daily candles only atm, by confirmation I mean the candle pattern must fulfill perfectly and completely for me to enter. I hope everything is visible enough, I used my old platform template which I don't trade anymore, feel free to ask questions - if any.
  • #351
  • Edited 6:36am Jan 3, 2016 6:22am | Edited 6:36am
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} If "burned account" after these 4 methods that you have mentioned, it is NOT due to these methods. It can be due to wrongly classifying the reasons for the "burned account'. Figure out more on what really caused those "burned account". Regarding to what you mentioned about Confirmation First, this is depending on how much time gap between your Signal versus the Confirmation. And also what market you are playing. Here, assuming playing Forex market, your Confirmation must be quite fast after the Signal, else the fast move of that forex pair...
I dont think in that way - I never think (and I try really really hard) where will the price go. If I notice myself doing that I usually stop trading. For me different candle patterns have different reliability. Some candle patterns are confirmation in itself, while others need to be confirmed in the next session - if they're not confirmed in the next session, I move my stop loss and decrease it so I'll take the least loss possible. Above I showed the last 4 trades I took on eur/usd in last 3 months. I hope you can see what my strategy is, although you cannot see what my system is since i removed all ma's, bb's and volatility studies.
Red arrows are the exact moments I went short, blue arrow is where I went long (switching first short) which was also a signal for me to take profit. From first position I took profit at 1.1200, not as suggested at that line i named "took profits here...."
the 4th circle ("another piercing line bud bad preset") is where I took the trade long, but I didn't "like" the long upper shaodw of the red candle - I terminated that trade same day with 40 dollars loss.
To recap, this system is one of many, and one of rare which relies on candle patterns that works fine on forex - dark cloud covers/piercing lines HAVE to come after a discernible uptrend/downtrend respectively. Of course I combine Bollinger and other lagging stuff but it is not neccessary really since you dont have to be a genious to realize the price is cutting bb's on lower side on that 4th trade which technically means nothing really. Price does it all the time and trading solely on Bollinger combined with ma's = burned account.
  • #352
  • Jan 3, 2016 6:33am Jan 3, 2016 6:33am
Quoting DemoAntares
Hey guys, I've read all things you wrote regarding confirmation and here is what I meant: {image} Since I trade daily candles only atm, by confirmation I mean the candle pattern must fulfill perfectly and completely for me to enter. I hope everything is visible enough, I used my old platform template which I don't trade anymore, feel free to ask questions - if any.

This makes sense what you mean by your Confirmation, and is relevant in your timing since you trading on Daily, you have more time and more pips to play with.
  • #353
  • Jan 3, 2016 6:41am Jan 3, 2016 6:41am
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} I dont think in that way - I never think (and I try really really hard) where will the price go. If I notice myself doing that I usually stop trading. For me different candle patterns have different reliability. Some candle patterns are confirmation in itself, while others need to be confirmed in the next session - if they're not confirmed in the next session, I move my stop loss and decrease it so I'll take the least loss possible. Above I showed the last 2 trades I took on eur/usd in last 3 months. I hope you can see what my strategy is,...

Perhaps when you first mentioned "burned account", you did not mean it was your account.

I thought it meant your burned account.

That is why I said that "burned account" is not due to just the 4 methods you mentioned, it is also due to some other reasons why a person's account is burnt.
If it is your burned account, then must look further on the root cause of the burned account.

You mention you use Candle patterns and some technical indicators to trade, that sounds a reasonable way to trade.
  • #354
  • Edited 7:00am Jan 3, 2016 6:42am | Edited 7:00am
I became successful in fx trading when I understood FULLY the psychology involved. I realized that the biggest enemy was this thing that is always smiling at me
in the mirror . I came to realize that what the society has taught us since the beginning of life is the complete opposite in trading. I dont use any system, no indicator, no nothing... just the bare stripped chart. PRICE ACTION.

Trading is:-
- 60 % Money Management
- 30 % Psychology
- 8 % Trade Management (Stop Losses & Exits)
- 2 % Trade Entries
Get to understand the psychology and things will change.
  • #355
  • Jan 3, 2016 6:59am Jan 3, 2016 6:59am
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} We don't comment on whether a mechanical system is profitable or not first. Not all trader can develop a mechanical system A person who may develop a mechanical system does NOT mean that person can do chart reading or do technical analysis in a relevant manner. A person who can program a mechanical system does NOT mean that person is a trader. A trader who can do relevant chart reading may find it difficult to code what they see on the charts, as certain information flow they see may be harder to explain in a mechanical manner.
In my opinion, terms like 'chart reading' / 'technical analysis' are misleading. Most people understand conventional reading and analysis to imply a level of objectivity. In speculation, what one derives from analysis is merely an opinion of future events. Mechanizing such analysis into a system is also just that; an opinion.

Anyway, I think the technical aspects of trading whether discretionary or mechanical are overrated and given too much importance. Managing risk is far more important yet hardly discussed.
  • #356
  • Jan 3, 2016 7:01am Jan 3, 2016 7:01am
I have been burning my accounts constantly for 2-3 years trading solely on indicators. This statement is somewhat incomplete since it doesnt containt the key sentence - without confirmation. If we have a line which we think is a resistance for example and we enter a trade as soon as the price touches that resistance (short entry) - we are trading blind in vast majority of cases. Why not wait until that candle upon which we want to trade closes first. In this example the whole fallacy of fear and greed is contained. We fear that price will escape us and our entry will be "late", therefore less pips. We also fear when we get the confirmation of that move - in this case - a candle bouncing off resistance line and closing way below - we fear if the move has already gone to far and if we are actually too "late".
Beauty about bounces off possible strong(er) supply/demand lines combined with some reliable candle patterns is that you wont be late and you will be safe.
  • #357
  • Jan 3, 2016 7:11am Jan 3, 2016 7:11am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} In my opinion, terms like 'chart reading' / 'technical analysis' are misleading. Most people understand conventional reading and analysis to imply a level of objectivity. In speculation, what one derives from analysis is merely an opinion of future events. Mechanizing such analysis into a system is also just that; an opinion. Anyway, I think the technical aspects of trading whether discretionary or mechanical are overrated and given too much importance. Managing risk is far more important yet hardly discussed.
Correct (in my opinion ofc). Managing risk is all about psychology and to learn it is, and always will be, a pain for vast majority of wannabe traders. We give too much importance to trading mechanics since it's in our scientific nature. In order to "justify" an entry we would rather talk about indicators than current market psychology and exit strategy.
There is a reason why stop losses are employed - besides prevention of heavy losses, which is smaller part of trading psychology - but because stop loss DEFINES our trade. Just before there was a "system" posted here (tony's 2 candle "system") with 2 candles which propagates SL size larger than profit target by 3-4 times. For me, SL size has to be smaller than profit target by 3 times minimum. Sometimes it's less, sometimes it's more. But I'm trading towards it being a minimum of 3:1 (P/L).
Talking about randomness, theory of chaos, thoughts about what will big boys do etc etc is noise for me...I remember a few yrs back I used to react angrily on that noise - today I'm ambivalent with a certain sense of sarcasm about it (which I try to eliminate too, since sarcasm is an emotional response, and theres no place for emotional responses here).
The way I figure it, talking about theories of market just clouds judgement further and our decisions are affected by it whether we like it or not. Same principle like for example: your name is John, and somebody calls you out loudly "Andrew" 20 times in a row. On 21st time you will answer "yes"?
  • #358
  • Jan 3, 2016 7:33am Jan 3, 2016 7:33am
Anyway, I forgot how enjoyable this is, exchanging opinions with traders, I haven't done it for a long time since I had to work on my psyche and in this time I didn't trade...Some of my accounts were even terminated since there was no dollars on them
I will start full time trading around April I hope, then I'll make a currency pairs daily candles thread so we can expand out experiences/strategies etc...Ofc for those who find daily charts interesting
By that time I'll just keep trolling from time to time like in the last few days - it's holidays and I'm in the safest possible position atm - sideways

Good luck all and thanx for comments and responses and critiques.
  • #359
  • Jan 3, 2016 10:45am Jan 3, 2016 10:45am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} In my opinion, terms like 'chart reading' / 'technical analysis' are misleading. Most people understand conventional reading and analysis to imply a level of objectivity. In speculation, what one derives from analysis is merely an opinion of future events. Mechanizing such analysis into a system is also just that; an opinion. Anyway, I think the technical aspects of trading whether discretionary or mechanical are overrated and given too much importance. Managing risk is far more important yet hardly discussed.

Agreed that Managing Risk is much more important.

It is not discuss much as it is more boring topic to discuss, and people don't want to hear about managing risk.

And there is less techniques, less variety needed to manage risk,
as opposed to many techniques and many variations available to discuss on entries, systems, forecasting, opinions, traders' work style / traders' life style, etc.
  • #360
  • Jan 3, 2016 11:09am Jan 3, 2016 11:09am
Quoting DemoAntares
I have been burning my accounts constantly for 2-3 years trading solely on indicators. This statement is somewhat incomplete since it doesnt containt the key sentence - without confirmation. If we have a line which we think is a resistance for example and we enter a trade as soon as the price touches that resistance (short entry) - we are trading blind in vast majority of cases. Why not wait until that candle upon which we want to trade closes first. In this example the whole fallacy of fear and greed is contained. We fear that price will escape...

It seem quite normal for most traders, especially forex traders, having burned accounts, and for multiple times.

From my experiences and seeing other traders' actual experiences, the few major reasons to how a trader burned their account could be summarised as:
- Not having a Stop Loss at all, and getting hit with that Single No-StopLoss transaction.
- Having Too Big a Stop Loss, and getting hit multiple big losses.
- Money in account was Too Small during that point of time, and money cannot survive for many years needed for Trader to just survive and learn the basics.
- Position Sizing wrong for the Account Size.
- Leverage on Margin was inappropriate for the Account Size.
- Not Managing Risk properly for you Money in Account.
- Not Managing Risk properly for Each and Every Trade.
- Being Too Greedy.


We exclude out the reasons of where the Broker/Company goes bankrupt or scam money away, and exclude been scam by Systems, EA, Information Providers, Education Promoters, Marketers, Sellers, Big Boys, Manipulators, etc.

In my above major reasons, there is basically no reason to include actual trading entries techniques.
Even if a trader has very bad entries techniques, it is also possible they could also burned their account, just that entries techniques may not be the real cause of the burned account.
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