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Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?

  • #321
  • Edited 5:56pm Jan 2, 2016 5:29pm | Edited 5:56pm
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} No word is wasted if it was sincere - it's what makes life worthwhile.
Well, another surprise maybe...but I actually have a lot of fun being sincere. It feels soooooooooooo good.

( now I think we should really stop before we make some "smart" traders really angry with our provoking simplicity becouse patterns are oh so sophisticated )

Wish you many green pips, my friend.

EDIT:
Ops, and you managed to provoke another "smart" trader. OMG. ( BTW, it isn't me I ment ....it is someone on my ignore list for quite some time )


EDIT 2:

BTW, Hanover,

sometimes being too smart on something that is none of your business ( like once on my thread if I can refresh your memory) can eventually blow up in your face. Just a friendly advice, no matter that you are on my ignore list.
PVSRA
  • #322
  • Jan 2, 2016 5:32pm Jan 2, 2016 5:32pm
Quoting DemoAntares
I always wanted to ask - what does randomness in price action or market have to do with trading?
Read this, replacing "stocks" with "forex".

My understanding is this: The implication is that, IF price movement was a completely random walk, then all profits and losses would be 100% 'luck' no matter what analysis/entries/exits/MM you might use, and that (due to br0ker costs) all retail traders would be mathematically bound to eventually lose.

However, if markets are manipulated to the extent that exploitable patterns are created, then they are definitely NOT a random walk.
  • #323
  • Jan 2, 2016 5:36pm Jan 2, 2016 5:36pm
Well I dont want to sound egoistic really - but whoever followed this thread from begining, he/she/it enjoyed it I bet...like I did too - and many good wishes were made and no hard words were spilt - it's a successful thread and it promotes the only thing that matters - a good feeling with some technicals and psychobabble backed up.
I think cubbybgood can be satisfied with answers...but thats just my opinion.

Thank you, and likewise!
  • #324
  • Edited 5:55pm Jan 2, 2016 5:44pm | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Read this, replacing "stocks" with "forex". My understanding is this: The implication is that, IF price movement was a completely random walk, then all profits and losses would be 100% 'luck' no matter what analysis/entries/exits/MM you might use, and that (due to br0ker costs) all retail traders would be mathematically bound to eventually lose.
Idk...do you know what is the volume of trades in which retail traders partake each day? Does it have impact on price movement as do the large financial institutions?
I cant answer that hypothesis but I suspect one thing - Japanese have invented candlesticks 2000 years ago, and West is using them less than 100 years. They have defined basic candlestick patterns before Columbus discovered America (or whoever discovered americas, I dont care). There are patterns when used in correct situations that give out 75%+ success rate (reversals reverse the trend and continuation patterns continu the trend) - how's that for randomness?

If all retail traders were bound to lose eventually, I can tell you one thing since I specialize in Russels2000 index - it would cease to exist and USA would collapse. And probably whole universe along with it.

Oh I saw that - apologies - I understand now. I just wanted to say it's a no brainer (for me at least) and wasting my thoughts on whether something is random or not is just noise for me...no offense to you whatsoever.

I also suspect markets are not manipulated - to clarify - even market manipulation creates patterns upon which we trade. Of course there are key levels which big guys monitor closely and large institutions will shake the tree whenever possible, but that doesn't and shouldn't impact our trading - at least not as retail traders.

A while ago I had a "semi-argument" with a guy propagating some mumbo jumbo how he learned (through a course he paid, and ofc he invited ppl from thread to that course) that one can know what big guys will do and act accordingly...I called him a "seller" and whatnot, those individuals are truly rotten here...
  • #325
  • Jan 2, 2016 5:57pm Jan 2, 2016 5:57pm
Quoting Agnosios
{quote} After 9 years of forex disaster I quit trading yesterday. My ( and yours ) 9-5 work brings 100% profit per year!
I quit. After 9 years? Disaster? The real disaster is that you didn't have the guts to tough it out. That is the disaster. 9-5 work?? 100% profit??? That is not profit that is a death of your soul. Working 9-5 is sad.

Unfortunately you didn't have what it takes to succeed in Forex. This isn't a catfight. This isn't a brawl. This is a war. Apparently you never read Sun Tzu the "Art of War". That is the first book you need to read to succeed in Forex. Later.
  • #326
  • Jan 2, 2016 5:59pm Jan 2, 2016 5:59pm
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} A while ago I had a "semi-argument" with a guy propagating some mumbo jumbo how he learned (through a course he paid, and ofc he invited ppl from thread to that course) that one can know what big guys will do and...
Geez, now I actually love you!
PVSRA
  • #327
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:02pm Jan 2, 2016 6:02pm
Quoting DemoAntares
do you know what is the volume of trades in which retail traders partake each day?
According to wikipedia, the volume of retail traders was approx 5% in 2013.
  • #328
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:05pm Jan 2, 2016 6:05pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} According to wikipedia, the volume of retail traders was approx 5% in 2013.
That's not what I want to know - I want the number of dollares. 5% can be 1 million or it can be 50 billion - can be a huge difference.
  • #329
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:08pm Jan 2, 2016 6:08pm
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} Idk...do you know what is the volume of trades in which retail traders partake each day? Does it have impact on price movement as do the large financial institutions? I cant answer that hypothesis but I suspect one thing - Japanese have invented candlesticks 2000 years ago, and West is using them less than 100 years. They have defined basic candlestick patterns before Columbus discovered America (or whoever discovered americas, I dont care). There are patterns when used in correct situations that give out 75%+ success rate (reversals reverse...
One can know what the big guys will do. They do the same exact thing over and over and over and over. Only most traders never figure out what they are doing over and over so they continue to "go long at support", "go short at resistance", trade the 38.2 retracement, go short at the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern, no wait-lets go long when support becomes resistance-I heard that in a free webinar-no wait I'll short the 61.8% fib retracement Guru XYZ said that at the Money expo. No wait-I'll wait for the projection of the retracement of the extension????????

When you get to a point in your trading journey where you have had enough-that's when the learning begins....
  • #330
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:08pm Jan 2, 2016 6:08pm
here's the thread

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post8647832
  • #331
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:11pm Jan 2, 2016 6:11pm
Quoting Giganntor
{quote} One can know what the big guys will do. They do the same exact thing over and over and over and over. Only most traders never figure out what they are doing over and over so they continue to "go long at support", "go short at resistance", trade the 38.2 retracement, go short at the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern, no wait-lets go long when support becomes resistance-I heard that in a free webinar-no wait I'll short the 61.8% fib retracement Guru XYZ said that at the Money expo. No wait-I'll wait for the projection of the...
- going short at the resistance/support without confirmation = burned account
- trading at retracements without confirmation = burned account
- trading the stupidest pattern in whole universe, the head and shoulders, without confirmation = burned account
- listening to gurus (especially self-proclaimed ones) = burned account

Learning begins? You guessed it - when you start trading confirmations.

If you REALLY want to get ahead of market and predict the price without confirmation first, you're better of putting all your bucks on barcelona (football) and youll get around 30% return every time - until that one time they lose and you lose it all too.
  • #332
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:17pm Jan 2, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} - going short at the resistance/support without confirmation = burned account - trading at retracements without confirmation = burned account - trading the stupidest pattern in whole universe, the head and shoulders, without confirmation = burned account - listening to gurus (especially self-proclaimed ones) = burned account Learning begins? You guessed it - when you start trading confirmations.


( Not that I will always agree- but this one is a beauty! Excellent post! )
PVSRA
  • #333
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:21pm Jan 2, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} ( Not that I will always agree- but this one is a beauty! Excellent post! )
These abovementioned categories should define profit target, not the trading system that's all...
Trading strategy = how I trade (do I enter blindly before confirmation and then it's 50-50 also called agressive trading which is doable but only for masochysts) or do I wait it out and try to find the confirmation of the move AND ONLY THEN enter a position.
  • #334
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:25pm Jan 2, 2016 6:25pm
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} - going short at the resistance/support without confirmation = burned account - trading at retracements without confirmation = burned account - trading the stupidest pattern in whole universe, the head and shoulders, without confirmation = burned account - listening to gurus (especially self-proclaimed ones) = burned account Learning begins? You guessed it - when you start trading confirmations. If you REALLY want to get ahead of market and predict the price without confirmation first, you're better of putting all your bucks on barcelona...
If you want to win at Forex you need to stop trading and start thinking.
  • #335
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:28pm Jan 2, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting Giganntor
{quote} If you want to win at Forex you need to stop trading and start thinking.
Correct. Personally I had almost 2 years pause. It saved me and remade me a new trader and person. I applaud your sentence. (clap)
  • #336
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:46pm Jan 2, 2016 6:46pm
Quoting DemoAntares
I want the number of dollares.
The 5% represents $250 billion, according to the same wiki article. Presumably it's increased since 2013.
  • #337
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:51pm Jan 2, 2016 6:51pm
Quoting DemoAntares
{quote} find the confirmation of the move AND ONLY THEN enter a position.
you might be on the wrong path again. soon you will find out waiting for confirmation is not going to work out either. when you get the confirmation and enter a trade they will start taking profit leaving you in negative.
As Above, So Below
  • #338
  • Jan 2, 2016 7:05pm Jan 2, 2016 7:05pm
yes it do just grow up first
all have a nice day please
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #339
  • Jan 2, 2016 10:33pm Jan 2, 2016 10:33pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you might be on the wrong path again. soon you will find out waiting for confirmation is not going to work out either. when you get the confirmation and enter a trade they will start taking profit leaving you in negative.
This thread is making for some really interesting discussion, thanks to all who have contributed

For me success in technical pattern trading is firstly about recognition of the fact that the markets in which we trade are dynamic. To follow on from what Tash said above, I believe that those in a position to manipulate price often wait for the herd to start behaving in a particular way, be it waiting for confirmation or any other combination of behaviours, after which they can take advantage of this characteristic and push stops, instigate reversals etc. such that they make money while the retail herd is left languishing.

Still, I really like your posts DemoAntares.. I completely agree with a lot of what you've been saying, with particular regard to listening to self-proclaimed gurus. Success for me has come from building my own systems, which I am intimately familiar with, rather than picking up somebody else's ideas and trying to make the unrealistic profits they usually advertise as being so easy to obtain.

Cheers for the great discussion!
Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #340
  • Jan 3, 2016 1:13am Jan 3, 2016 1:13am
Quoting forex_fairy
Actually fx trading is kind of confusing in the sense that there are literally 100s of trading systems and methods you can see it right here and even more in the commercial section. Each trading method can be considered as a system by itself that is if you are using that system you won't be following another system and here lies the problem. I believe most systems here are technical that is they follow rules most of us would know. enter when price does something put TP important points in the chart typically when it's say a support/resistance lvl,...
I can't agree more. I have been trading for 2 years now (almost). Started off with demo got familiar with the platform, the lingo. Moved onto "nano" live account. Started trading minuscule lots. Still nothing. I was going nowhere. Things weren't going as I planned. Signed up with fx forum. Finished their school. Read everything (educational material) that I could find on forex. Everything except systems and indicators. I was never a fan of a system that promised quick money. Found trading buddies on the forum that I signed up . And the real learning started from there. 6 months into the journey. I have learned much more than I ever did with the group. We were making so much progress. At one point I couldn't recognise my old posts. Fast forward to present, 2 years down the road. The pieces are coming together beautifully, finally. All that studying hours and hours I spent looking at charts analysing data and information everything fits. I had been waiting for this moment for the longest. All of this made possible because I wasn't interested in going after systems and indicators. I had genuine curiosity to know what moved price from one level to another. I wanted to know the key drivers. From there I figured out correlations and so forth that now I use as a filter. And last but not least I had the privilege of knowing someone who had years of experience. I learned heaps from him. Look the bottom line is you have to find out what works for you. I was fortunate that I shared many similarities with this experienced trader. So his style of trading suited me for the most part. Still I had to make some amendments. Forget about indicators and systems. You'll do break-even at best with those. Stop searching for that holy grail. And start thinking. Observe price action. Do what you have to do. And make time. Its not easy. But if you're fortunate enough to get by and get to the other side, you'll know that it was all worth it.
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