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Why do indicators not work/work? Why is Forex not truly random? 129 replies

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Attachments: Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?
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Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?

Quoting Nlc78
how does an indicator telling you about price action thats happened in the past help you to determine the markets value for the future???? And 61.8 lol what would that mean?? 50% control of buyers and sellers means something ... Gee maybe fibs is close to whats happening but they arent some magical tool. you use fibs? I promise they mean nothing. tools / indicators Who cares they are all useless. if you use these thinngs you wont stay long in trading. making 50-100% a year full time trading is still a fail. Gambling.
it is all about drawing a line in the sand. call it reference point if you prefer. never think your point of view is the most correct and everybody else is wrong. no matter what system you use, it is all about finding an edge within that system.
As Above, So Below
Quoting tashkent
{quote} it is all about drawing a line in the sand. call it reference point if you prefer. never think your point of view is the most correct and everybody else is wrong. no matter what system you use, it is all about finding an edge within that system.
There is no edge in gambling. Only luck.
The holly grail doesn't exists, but fortune.
Retail Forex trading is a joke. Should be a hobby at best. Not ever would I trust any so called retail 'broker' with a large deposit. Its your broker that makes or breaks your forex experience.
FF = Forex Faggots
Quoting laszlo-1
{quote} There is no edge in gambling. Only luck. The holly grail doesn't exists, but fortune.
ok if you say so
As Above, So Below
to some people, forex trading is a mind game, an entertainment.
do you think it is worth it, totall up to yourself.
patience is a virtue
Watch this video
Inserted Video
Is forex trading worth it? NO! It will only drain your bank account.

Now, watch this video instead - much more HONEST than above video:

Inserted Video
Quoting JayTradeNow
As someone who trades for a living, I'd have to say that forex trading is definitely worth it. Just remember a few things: 1. Trading is 95% mental. If your head's not right, you will fail 100% of the time, no matter how great your system is. 2. Pick one pair and trade it. Period. You don't need to worry about looking at 30 different pairs to see what's going on. 3. Don't get stressed. That's another huge one for me. I think one of the reasons why I'm successful is that I'm laid back. I don't care if my trade wins or loses, because I know over time,...
Superb.... this is the key of trading... but i suggests 10 to 15 trade per month.
Trade fearless not careless...
Quoting Nlc78
how does an indicator telling you about price action thats happened in the past help you to determine the markets value for the future???? And 61.8 lol what would that mean?? 50% control of buyers and sellers means something ... Gee maybe fibs is close to whats happening but they arent some magical tool. you use fibs? I promise they mean nothing. tools / indicators Who cares they are all useless. if you use these thinngs you wont stay long in trading. making 50-100% a year full time trading is still a fail. Gambling.
Isn't that what charts do, show the past? Up to the very last tick. Well you can't use charts then!

You know nothing about me or how I trade yet you are prepared to call me a failure because I use fibs! There are thousands who use fibs and make them work, so i think that comment says more about you than me. I'll stick to my charts and you can stick to this
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Quoting gravitist
Is forex trading worth it? NO! It will only drain your bank account. Now, watch this video instead - much more HONEST than above video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZdBzFcvwQY

Interesting Video.

I skim watch through the video.

The "punchline" is good that I will not give it away for those who want to watch.

This video came from someone who is probably has more skill on the programming side than the trading side.

This video is good for beginners/intermediate traders who still believe in EA programming will give a person better results, and then discover why most EA will fail.

And then the EA/Systems buyers will find that most people who advertise EA or Systems are just a better marketer and a better salesperson, and unlikely to be a trader or a winning trader.

Disagree in that prices are COMPLETELY random.

There is sufficient evidence I have seen through charts to show that at times prices are NOT random, and perhaps a bit predictable at those times, and that is the ONLY time we would want to trade.

Other time show prices are more random, and that is when we want to stay away from trading.

The difficult part for traders is to pick the relevant timing of those higher probability trading, and to stay away from a feeling of always wanting to trade.
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} Interesting Video. I skim watch through the video. The "punchline" is good that I will not give it away for those who want to watch. This video came from someone who is probably has more skill on the programming side than the trading side. This video is good for beginners/intermediate traders who still believe in EA programming will give a person better results, and then discover why most EA will fail. And then the EA/Systems buyers will find that most people who advertise EA or Systems are just a better marketer and a better salesperson,...
have no understanding of ea,s and anything to do with the very thing im typing this msg on,

but everthing else you have said i believe to be spot on the money..
I'd like to add to this discussion. Trading is about finding your edge and the edge is about finding a system that is in line with your personality and that will generate profit over a period of time. And that's when the reality comes in - trading is boring and it'll always be like that. If you don't plan to stick to your plan and don't follow it religiously you'll fail. This is not the industry where you get rich over night - it takes a tremendous amount of time to be successful in this business. Without dedication and practice you don't stand a chance...

Your system should be pretty simple and it should be fairly easy to transfer that system into a code, which is what I did. I remember I used to backtest manually which took me days to complete, if you're doing it properly. I've seen people bashing indicators and EAs above... please understand that the indicators are tools to help you see what the price is currently doing compared to past. There's a vast amount of options on how to trade, and it's up to you which way you'll choose. Once you got the system, you need to backtest the hell out of it... Sorry I`m going a bit off-topic here, my apologies

Back to the original question...

Is forex trading worth it? --> my answer is YES, if you enjoy watching the markets and if you plan to put thousands of hours into learning and practice. Otherwise NO, you'll just loose money and time which is the most precious commodity
Quoting foxybunny
This video came from someone who is probably has more skill on the programming side than the trading side. This video is good for beginners/intermediate traders who still believe in EA programming will give a person better results, and then discover why most EA will fail. And then the EA/Systems buyers will find that most people who advertise EA or Systems are just a better marketer and a better salesperson, and unlikely to be a trader or a winning trader.
If a trader cannot develop a profitable mechanical system he probably should abandon technical analysis / chart reading altogether.

Its very unsettling that many people here would choose the false hope that discretionary trading gives rather than accept that they haven't found an edge.

This is just my observation of FF folk, obviously there are many successful traders and fund managers who use discretionary approaches. To me, and anyone who really understands trading systems, speculation is ultimately discretionary regardless of the approach.
Forex is run by well capitalized professional traders who run a very lucrative business. They make money everyday. They don't care what happens to you or your bank account.

The reason 95% of traders lose is not because it is impossible or that no matter what you do you will lose. The real reason is they never figure out how to win. It is possible to win. It takes a very high level of trading skill, a nimble well conditioned trading mind which is developed over time, and crystal clear understanding of what is going on. When you finally have all of that in place you can win consistently.

You cannot win by going long at support, going short at resistance, selling an engulfing candle, buying at the crossover of the 5 SMA and 20 SMA, shorting a bounce off the 38.2% retracement. These don't work. If they did everyone would be rich.

Why not sit down one day, take out a pad and pencil, spend 3 or 4 hours thinking about the ways in which you would make money if you were in control of the market and you could do what ever you wanted to the price action so that you would get rich taking money from other traders. Jot down every way you could think of to take money from traders and start focusing on how the traders running the market are now doing that to you. Hopefully you will see that focusing on why you are losing and how you could do things differently is so important and is such a big piece of the trading puzzle that very few traders ever consider.
Quoting Giganntor
Forex is run by well capitalized professional traders who run a very lucrative business. They make money everyday. They don't care what happens to you or your bank account. The reason 95% of traders lose is not because it is impossible or that no matter what you do you will lose. The real reason is they never figure out how to win. It is possible to win. It takes a very high level of trading skill, a nimble well conditioned trading mind which is developed over time, and crystal clear understanding of what is going on. When you finally have all of...
Yes positive. Some addition back test the theory sbiut 5 years charts to test it.
Trade fearless not careless...
Quoting mohsinali
{quote} Yes positive. Some addition back test the theory sbiut 5 years charts to test it.
I agree with Mohsinali "never give up". Never under any circumstances ever do you throw in the towel. Keep moving forward, keep growing, take your losses, take your hits if they come and keep moving ahead. That is the way to success. Some of the best trading weeks I ever had came right after losing weeks. Never surrender.
Amazing post...and probably a reflection of 95% of wannabe traders who have experience in burning various-sized accounts, like myself. Took me 5 years though...not 11 like yourself - I guess I'm more stable - just joking.
Traders fail because...well, there's so many mumbo jumbo wisemen here quoting various statements and spilling various wisdoms, so I'll do the same , but on an example.
If anyone knows that movie (cant remember the name) with anthony hopkins and cuba gooding jr. where hopkins has him clinched by the neck and wants to kill him and before he would kill him he wanted to know what he had taken from him, what had he lost - and cuba gooding junior was answering all the wrong answers like "life", "freedom" etc...and in the end, in last chance before hopkins is about to snap his neck he gets it right - correct answer was "illusions".
Traders fail horribly in vast majority because of illusions. Whether it's illusions of grandeur, illusions of a 10 trades in a row winning streak which implies we can increase our leverage and go all in occasionally, or any other type of emotional images we create due to the fact we are utterly and hopelessly affected by fear and greed.
That is the "only" reason why traders fail - emotions in trading - as simple as that. There should be NONE. As soon as you start asking yourself "why" did the price go in that direction - you're emotional. Stop trading. Turn off pc. Go out with your wife/gf/bf or whatever.

When I started to get acquainted with trading, I thought this is my exit from poverty, I saw a hope, and as it goes I supposed if I dedicated all my free waking hours to learning trading mechanics (funda+techs), I would succeed. How wrong I was...
I ruined a very nice 5-year relationship I had at the time, by spending all my hours at my 2 screens instead of living my life as every normal person should do in this pretty straightforward society.
Long story short, today I trade 1 hour per day (per average), and by trade I mean I spend 55 minutes searching for my potential entries, and 5mins to setup a position + trailing and stop loss. AFTER I have done that I usually turn off that chart until 3-4 days (trading daily candles exclusively).

In order to remove emotions from this "job" one needs to concentrate on what is most important. Are news important? Are thoughts as to what will the big guys do important? Are fundamentals of the security in hand important? - Only after I have deliberately started ignoring these 3 questions and concentrate on my system solely have I figured that trading is not about making money - it is about making right decisions more than anything else.
Here especially, you will find many many many people who instruct traders to follow news, and take different "courses" (of which they're members ofc) which would "enable" you to get the large picture as to what will the large financial institutions do, etc etc...Good luck in listening to that horrible noise, and be sure to prepare a lot of time and money you can invest with -100% return

Btw, my system is based on knowledge on candle patterns which work best in daily charts + BB + 14,20,50,100,200 SMA. Signals this strategy generates are rare (had 20 trades on eur/usd last year - 14 profits, 6 losses). But I also trade cfd's on all various financial derivatives I could get my hands on...

All in all, I've noticed I like to entice in these discussions from time to time which makes me happy - I would definitely love that new traders don't have to spend 5+ years in order to become successful, and especially ruining their social life and who knows what else...

Reduce your emotions about this business to 0. And you will not only be satisfied - you will be profitable.

I believe it's a Jewish saying that goes: "If you want to find out what kind of person you are - start trading".
Quoting gravitist
Is forex trading worth it? NO! It will only drain your bank account. Now, watch this video instead - much more HONEST than above video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZdBzFcvwQY

Hey dude, This video is just Bulls**t. LOL how can he say Forex is COMPLETELY RANDOM? And please don't say that Forex just drains everyone bank account and distract some newcomers from even starting to learn about Forex Market. If you were not able to make money with Forex then it's you lacking Knowledge. Don't blame markets, Blame your capability & Knowledge.

Forex is not easy, but learn something about Forex everyday. Never give up.

Yes FOREX TRADING IS WORTH IT.

The Earlier You Start, The More Time You Have To Mess Up.
As usual all sorts of delusional responses with the overwhelming sense of self-importance(impotent) AND all coming from failing traders with zero sense of shame with a common self-aggrandisement disorders(SAD). Plus of course follow by the omnipresent `roque` trawling advishors out with their standard toolsets of baits and hooks.
So save all your flames cos I am out of here and aint coming back again ever.......

GS.
Quoting Anonymous32
{quot
e} Hey dude, This video is just Bulls**t. LOL how can he say Forex is COMPLETELY RANDOM? And please don't say that Forex just drains everyone bank account and distract some newcomers from even starting to learn about Forex Market. If you were not able to make money with Forex then it's you lacking Knowledge. Don't blame markets, Blame your capability & Knowledge. Forex is not easy, but learn something about Forex everyday. Never give up. Yes FOREX TRADING IS WORTH IT.
You can make money trading Forex. There is nothing random about Forex. Price moves in a very carefully orchestrated dance which is intended to produce the most profits for those who run the market and the most losses for those who trade it. That's the nature of trading.

If you lose every trade for 5 years whose fault is that? Is it the market's fault? Or is it yours? You can figure out how to stop getting in and out at exactly the wrong times. You can start getting in and out at the right times.

You control what you do. You click the mouse and you open and close the trade. You are essentially handing yourself a loss on a consistent basis. You need to figure out how to get on board winning trades early and stay on them and get out of losing trades ASAP. Your equity curve will reverse and instead of small winners and big losers you will have small losers and big winners. That is the only way to success.

Now let's think deeper. If you can lose consistently how come you can't win consistently? What it is that you need to be doing differently? There must be a different course of action that will lead to consistent wins instead of consistent losses. Lucky for you there is. Instead of complaining Forex is "rigged" you should be spending all of your efforts figuring out how it is rigged and how you can make money trading with those who rig it. Do exactly what they do and you will surely win. You can win at Forex. It is worth it and don't ever give up. The 5% do exist.
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