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NZD/USD

  • #10,501
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:16pm Dec 17, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting HareshBM
{quote} Longs initiated; aiming for 0.6880 above which NZDUSD could easily surpass 0.7000 mark and head towards 0.7170-80 resistance area.
John Key NZ pm quoted at saying goldilocks figure for NZ dollar in his mind would be 65 so all policy by rbnz is directed at forceing dollar towards these levels and apropreate action taken by rbnz to achieve this all financial reports indicate thats where it should be the only thing suporting it where it is at the moment is smoke and mirrors by tallented minipulators take note dont get trapped up there
  • #10,502
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:19pm Dec 17, 2015 6:19pm
Weekly Trend is short. Long for short term until U.S market is active.
  • #10,503
  • Dec 17, 2015 9:06pm Dec 17, 2015 9:06pm
I went long for this pair
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  • #10,504
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:31am Dec 18, 2015 1:31am
Quoting Mm8
{quote} John Key NZ pm quoted at saying goldilocks figure for NZ dollar in his mind would be 65 so all policy by rbnz is directed at forceing dollar towards these levels and apropreate action taken by rbnz to achieve this all financial reports indicate thats where it should be the only thing suporting it where it is at the moment is smoke and mirrors by tallented minipulators take note dont get trapped up there
Eventually even I am expecting NZDUSD to drop lower, but my opinion is based on trader's perspective. And for trading to be successful, it always needs to be backed by appropriate risk management strategies.
  • #10,505
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:53am Dec 18, 2015 1:53am
Before 68500-700 trends in resistance, then downtrend 62500
  • #10,506
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:31am Dec 18, 2015 2:31am
Quoting Mm8
{quote} Right now without the mischief the nz dollar should be sitting at around 64 so with a little less smoke and some broken mirrors we should get some honesty out of the market , so lets get on with watching it fall properly
agree, but also would be great to pick some longs up at 0.64
Do what's right for you
  • #10,507
  • Dec 20, 2015 9:56am Dec 20, 2015 9:56am
Quoting ben82
Before 68500-700 trends in resistance, then downtrend 62500
I doubt it'd reach higher than 0.68000 before it starts falling again.
  • #10,508
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:09am Dec 21, 2015 2:09am
No matter how I try to look at it, I see more downside potential than upside. At least to me PA looks like this:
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I'm looking for TP1 at .66 and TP2 at .65.
  • #10,509
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:03am Dec 21, 2015 9:03am
I agree. This is a flag, it will should start falling again soon.
  • #10,510
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:00pm Dec 21, 2015 9:00pm
We are getting close to a very important historical level 0.6815

Looking to sell heavily around this level. We are preparing for the next mid term leg down at 0.6000 which looks imminent in 2016.
  • #10,511
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:09pm Dec 21, 2015 9:09pm
Hi guys, let's put some fire on this thread.

Have a look at the weekly TF, can you spot the pattern that's has previously developed many times since 2008? The market is attempting to form another Head&Shoulder Formation or a variation that is called King's Crown Formation, they are similar, but for those who don't know, the King's Crown has an early entry than the H&S.

The inner black downward trendline was broken and now the price tends to gravitate towards the long term black trendline, If this one gets broken, the price will tend to move up to at least 0.70493 (38.2 Fib ret from the down capital AB), if this level gets broken, the price can extend the right shoulder of the King's Crown to 0.7330 (fib ext from up AB), and finally if all those levels get broken, I wouldn't be shocked to see price testing the brown horizontal line at 0.77466 (look at how many times it served as sup/res since 2008 as well).

There are more things we can discuss here and I can write all night long, but let's concentrate on the pattern.

Does it sound crazy??? Technically speaking no, but there are so many political issues going on, the FED just raised the rates, NZD currency is currently weak, so anything can happen, if the downward movement continues, the projection off the weekly TF is to go to 0.55 zone (that coincides with the first formation on the graph)

I don't want to confuse anyone, trade what to see, not what you hear/read, trade must be fun, trade wisely and protect your capital at all times.

Happy pips everyone one.

Fx 35
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  • #10,512
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:12pm Dec 21, 2015 9:12pm
agreed, building short position
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  • #10,513
  • Edited 10:03pm Dec 21, 2015 9:51pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting diggo
We are getting close to a very important historical level 0.6815 Looking to sell heavily around this level. We are preparing for the next mid term leg down at 0.6000 which looks imminent in 2016.
Got what I wanted. All eyes on the hour closes. A close above 6815/16 is bullish
  • #10,514
  • Dec 22, 2015 4:02pm Dec 22, 2015 4:02pm
all green prints
maybe now it's comming down
at 6804
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  • #10,515
  • Dec 22, 2015 6:22pm Dec 22, 2015 6:22pm
watching it bounce off my fib fan right now....
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  • #10,516
  • Dec 22, 2015 7:25pm Dec 22, 2015 7:25pm
Previous 2 buy opportunities worked quite nicely, around +200 pips combined, possibly a 3rd buy opportunity if 2 hrs candle closes above the CTL, the only concern is the amount of congestion and resistance levels in these areas that can invalidate the trade, also the holidays and festivities are coming and the volatility will decrease. So be that in mind before pull the trigger in any pair.

Happy pips everyone.

Fx 35
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  • #10,517
  • Dec 22, 2015 7:30pm Dec 22, 2015 7:30pm
Quoting Karpa
all green prints maybe now it's comming down at 6804 {image}
I wouldn't pay attention too much at the medium impact news, although they can move the price a bit, I'd focus more on the high impact ones and where the price currently is and what the technicals are trying to tell us (the silent sign of the market)

Fx 35
  • #10,518
  • Dec 22, 2015 8:22pm Dec 22, 2015 8:22pm
Quoting Fx 35
{quote} I wouldn't pay attention too much at the medium impact news, although they can move the price a bit, I'd focus more on the high impact ones and where the price currently is and what the technicals are trying to tell us (the silent sign of the market) Fx 35
Thanks Fx
I don't feel comfortable buying or selling at these levels so I'm out
  • #10,519
  • Dec 22, 2015 8:48pm Dec 22, 2015 8:48pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} Got what I wanted. All eyes on the hour closes. A close above 6815/16 is bullish
Bulls had a mini break above. 6815 has been tested a few times since October and is weakening somewhat. Nonetheless, it remains a strong decision point, particularly on the weekly. Closing above 6815 this week will be strong bullish and unlock a quick leg to 0.699x short term with a max wick extension to 0.72xx. A close below and the bears will remain in full control for the major downtrend to resume. Mid term target is 800+ pips below in Q1/Q2 2016.
  • #10,520
  • Dec 23, 2015 3:23am Dec 23, 2015 3:23am
Quoting diggo
We are getting close to a very important historical level 0.6815 Looking to sell heavily around this level. We are preparing for the next mid term leg down at 0.6000 which looks imminent in 2016.
Although NZDUSD seems to face difficulty in clearing 0.6830 immediate resistance, but once conquered the pair could easily aim to reclaim 0.7000 mark.
Only a decisive weakness and close below 0.6700 mark negates possibilities of any further recovery...
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