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Trend Trading System

  • #1,601
  • Dec 20, 2015 5:18pm Dec 20, 2015 5:18pm
Hi Fartist.
You have one of he best threads around here on trend trading. Keep up your great work. I have read half of it and try to read it all today. I have a few question. Did you ever consider to keep your trades for longer periods, like years? And the second question. When you do scale in, why don't you do it stronger like adding 10-20 positions in a good breakout, is it just the way you prefer to do it or you have some mathematical proof that stacking a lot of positions is not giving you extra profit.
I trend trade myself for some time and that made me profitable. If you don't mind I'll stick around your thread. Maybe I'll ask some more questions, if you don't mind.
Thank you for your time and effort.
  • #1,602
  • Dec 21, 2015 3:21am Dec 21, 2015 3:21am
Quoting cold chisel
Hi Fartist. You have one of he best threads around here on trend trading. Keep up your great work. I have read half of it and try to read it all today. I have a few question. Did you ever consider to keep your trades for longer periods, like years? And the second question. When you do scale in, why don't you do it stronger like adding 10-20 positions in a good breakout, is it just the way you prefer to do it or you have some mathematical proof that stacking a lot of positions is not giving you extra profit. I trend trade myself for some time and...
Hi chisel,

Thank you for your feedback!

1) I wouldn't mind holding for years if my trailing stops isn't hit, but so far that hasn't happen.

2) I treat each trade independently as I never know which one will be a winner or loser. By risking different amounts on each trade, you will come to a point where your losers are large, and your winners are small.

I hope that makes sense.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,603
  • Dec 21, 2015 4:46am Dec 21, 2015 4:46am
Quoting fartist
{quote} Hi chisel, Thank you for your feedback! 1) I wouldn't mind holding for years if my trailing stops isn't hit, but so far that hasn't happen. 2) I treat each trade independently as I never know which one will be a winner or loser. By risking different amounts on each trade, you will come to a point where your losers are large, and your winners are small. I hope that makes sense. fartist
Yes it makes sense.
Another thing. About the trailing stop. Why don't you try and take a trade in the opposite direction, than to close your trade when your stop loss is hit. If it's a birth of a trade in the opposite direction you'll have an early entry, that has a better chance of surviving. And if your trend continues than you have saved your profit position and didn't close it, but only your opened position (in the other direction dies for a small loss).
Have you ever looked into this. I have researched some of your trades further down the track and found out that you could have made a lot more profit if you weren't out a bit early. I know it's possible to hold longer.
Please, don't be offended, your trading is GREAT, but there is always a way to make it better.
  • #1,604
  • Dec 21, 2015 6:38am Dec 21, 2015 6:38am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Yes it makes sense. Another thing. About the trailing stop. Why don't you try and take a trade in the opposite direction, than to close your trade when your stop loss is hit. If it's a birth of a trade in the opposite direction you'll have an early entry, that has a better chance of surviving. And if your trend continues than you have saved your profit position and didn't close it, but only your opened position (in the other direction dies for a small loss). Have you ever looked into this. I have researched some of your trades further down...
In other words, I'm assuming you mean scaling out of my positions?
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,605
  • Dec 21, 2015 7:00am Dec 21, 2015 7:00am
Quoting fartist
{quote} In other words, I'm assuming you mean scaling out of my positions?
It is also possible that you close positions that are closer to your stop loss (the ones that have less profit in them) and leave the bigger positions in play. But I'm talking about a different strategy.
Lets say you have 3 short positions on EUR\USD since 22 October this year and all is going well, then one day on the 3rd of December a banker doesn't do what a lot of bears are waiting for and so the market goes up and erase most of the profit. But you as a SMART trader is ready for it and instead of closing your positions and keeping whatever is left of your profit, you just open an opposite trending position with tight stops. In case the uptrend will pick up (nobody knows that) you can have several nice and early positions open and also you can hedge the profit that you loose on your short trades if you close them.
Here is the chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR USD h4 1.png Size: 34 KB
  • #1,606
  • Dec 21, 2015 7:13am Dec 21, 2015 7:13am
Quoting verv
{quote} thanks mate. i don't know of anyone who does diversify. It's harder than it looks
I do it. As long as you have enough profit and don't do it for a loss. It's very hard to do it when you start and becomes easier as you have some positions to spare.
  • #1,607
  • Dec 21, 2015 8:44am Dec 21, 2015 8:44am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} I do it. As long as you have enough profit and don't do it for a loss. It's very hard to do it when you start and becomes easier as you have some positions to spare.
Thank you for explaining, so you're referring to the diversifying of positions from Graeme's teaching.

I don't trade against the underlying trend, but that's just me.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,608
  • Dec 21, 2015 5:16pm Dec 21, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting fartist
{quote} Thank you for explaining, so you're referring to the diversifying of positions from Graeme's teaching. I don't trade against the underlying trend, but that's just me. fartist
Fair enough.
Yes, he diversified like that as well. I understand that you are happy with the way you are doing things. If you don't mind I'll stick around here.
Is it possible to trade a bit differently (I mean stacking more and exiting a bit differently) and still show my charts here, or you would like for participants to trade only exactly like you do and apply only your rules for a 100%? In the end it's your thread and I completely respect your work and that's why I ask permission.
  • #1,609
  • Dec 21, 2015 6:27pm Dec 21, 2015 6:27pm
hi Rayner
Would it be possible for you to provide your monthly trading profits records using the trend trading strategy for the past 2/3 years¿ so i can understand what is it to be a trend trader.
I started two months ago, and so far it is being a bit hard to hold the positions, since u see many profits vanishing. 2 weeks ago I shad several positions on 10R profits and then the Euro bank changed the deposits. At the end I got 0.5 R profits. I am protecting my profits with 1R from 50EMA (usually on H4), but still, I give away a lot of profits.
As you said on your slides, it is the hardest part¡
Thanks for your help
  • #1,610
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:40pm Dec 21, 2015 11:40pm
Hey Gonzalon.
I'm not Rayner, but... If you don't mind. Do you keep statistics of your previous trades some 2-3 years back. If you do you can check your own performance. How? Just have a look at how many trades went WAY above your expectations after you have closed them. I think you would be surprised. That simple exercise made a trend trader out of me a few years back when I did that exercise on my own trading. My profits grew more than 50% on that alone. With this strategy even a 100 times coin toss becomes profitable as long as you know what to do after you have entered.
Also if you were shorting EURO from May last year, believe me you would hardly notice the last changes since the start of December.
At first it's hard. I change my brokers now and will start all over again and it'll be hard for me again, but I'm confident about the outcome. Also I would advice to reread Rayners post 1160. It is solid gold. That guy is wise.
I have found some knew stuff for me in your trading (and I have thought I knew it all ) , that I reckon will make me better. Thanks Rayner again.
  • #1,611
  • Dec 22, 2015 6:16am Dec 22, 2015 6:16am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Fair enough. Yes, he diversified like that as well. I understand that you are happy with the way you are doing things. If you don't mind I'll stick around here. Is it possible to trade a bit differently (I mean stacking more and exiting a bit differently) and still show my charts here, or you would like for participants to trade only exactly like you do and apply only your rules for a 100%? In the end it's your thread and I completely respect your work and that's why I ask permission.
Hey chisel,

Not at all, you're more than welcome to post your own charts.

Thank you for asking bud

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,612
  • Dec 22, 2015 6:18am Dec 22, 2015 6:18am
Quoting Gonzalon
hi Rayner Would it be possible for you to provide your monthly trading profits records using the trend trading strategy for the past 2/3 years so i can understand what is it to be a trend trader. I started two months ago, and so far it is being a bit hard to hold the positions, since u see many profits vanishing. 2 weeks ago I shad several positions on 10R profits and then the Euro bank changed the deposits. At the end I got 0.5 R profits. I am protecting my profits with 1R from 50EMA (usually on H4), but still, I give away a lot of profits. As...
Hey Gonzalon,

Here are some stats over the last 1.5 years

I made about 100R during this period, with the bulk coming from the last qtr of 2014 and first quarter of 2015 (mainly trades from usd/jpy, crude oil, eurusd)

After which i get mostly small wins small losses and break even results from April 2015 till date.

This kind of market conditions is more of protecting capital, than it is to try and make a killing.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,613
  • Dec 22, 2015 7:15am Dec 22, 2015 7:15am
Quoting fartist
{quote} Hey chisel, Not at all, you're more than welcome to post your own charts. Thank you for asking bud fartist
Agreed. I'll try to explain what I do differently than you when posting charts, so not to confuse your exact followers. Unfortunately there are no significant reversals in forex markets at the moment, so there is nothing to post. We will wait. Waiting is my favorite game.
  • #1,614
  • Dec 22, 2015 9:49am Dec 22, 2015 9:49am
Hi Rayner and traders,

Took this breakout trade about 1H ago.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 71 KB


Hugo
  • #1,615
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:56am Dec 22, 2015 11:56am
Quoting Hugo55
Hi Rayner and traders, Took this breakout trade about 1H ago. {image} Hugo
Good trade, I just missed it.

I am still waiting for retracement!
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,616
  • Dec 22, 2015 12:17pm Dec 22, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting umairsheikh2
{quote} Good trade, I just missed it. I am still waiting for retracement!
Thanks umairsheikh2,

Hope you get in later, I don't see any obstructions until the 146 area
  • #1,617
  • Dec 22, 2015 9:16pm Dec 22, 2015 9:16pm
Hi,

Very great thread, I'm very excited to know more.

I just don't know, should I use H4 or daily charts to make my entries with 50EMAs support?

In the graphics I see mixed techniques.
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #1,618
  • Dec 23, 2015 3:21am Dec 23, 2015 3:21am
Quoting PowerTrade
Hi, Very great thread, I'm very excited to know more. I just don't know, should I use H4 or daily charts to make my entries with 50EMAs support? In the graphics I see mixed techniques.
Hi Power,

You can refer to the post on page 1, and download the PDF.

Its explained in there.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,619
  • Dec 23, 2015 3:21am Dec 23, 2015 3:21am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Agreed. I'll try to explain what I do differently than you when posting charts, so not to confuse your exact followers. Unfortunately there are no significant reversals in forex markets at the moment, so there is nothing to post. We will wait. Waiting is my favorite game.
Yes its towards the end of the year.

Markets are usually quiet and its best to sit on your hands, and not do anything "funny"

Cheers

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,620
  • Edited 4:54am Dec 23, 2015 4:01am | Edited 4:54am
Hi Rayner and traders,

Just want to say it is great to be back again, thank you for keeping this thread alive.
I'm of on my holiday in a couple of hours, wishing you all a merry Christmas and a happy New Year
with lots of pips.

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