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AUD/USD

  • #94,341
  • Dec 20, 2015 5:15am Dec 20, 2015 5:15am
when more of the shorts have been cleared out there will be more movement south. cant have everyone making profit now can we.
  • #94,342
  • Dec 20, 2015 9:07am Dec 20, 2015 9:07am
d1 & W1 have a bearish pennant. i think its going down.
  • #94,343
  • Dec 20, 2015 4:20pm Dec 20, 2015 4:20pm
what you think is meaningless. what matters is what you trade.
As Above, So Below
  • #94,344
  • Dec 20, 2015 7:17pm Dec 20, 2015 7:17pm
Gliding down on low volume, wondering where the short term bottom is

4h chart looks very interesting, somewhat of a wedge. Something interesting ought to happen in the next week or so... but it's holidays
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd4h.png Size: 129 KB
  • #94,345
  • Dec 20, 2015 8:01pm Dec 20, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Gliding down on low volume, wondering where the short term bottom is 4h chart looks very interesting, somewhat of a wedge. Something interesting ought to happen in the next week or so... but it's holidays {image}
Good analysis. My chart looks similar. Waiting for it to break one of these. I'm keen to take a break too and enjoy some of my profits too.My sentiment is short over the first quarter. But maybe some sideways action of the next month though unless some hectic news/figures are released.
  • #94,346
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:00am Dec 21, 2015 2:00am
AudUsd ====>
Buy Stop = 71854 / TP = 72021 / SL = 71627
if this order trigger ; open 2* lot Sell Stop = 71627 / TP = 71519 / SL = 71854
GL
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #94,347
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:00am Dec 21, 2015 2:00am
long time bearish,will load shorts if it goes above 0.725
  • #94,348
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:10am Dec 21, 2015 2:10am
Quoting tashkent
what you think is meaningless. what matters is what you trade.
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #94,349
  • Dec 21, 2015 3:30am Dec 21, 2015 3:30am
61.8% Fibonacci is still in play, interesting level...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $AUDUSD (60 Min) 20151220.jpg Size: 213 KB
  • #94,350
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:18am Dec 21, 2015 9:18am
Quoting qqqzz
I hope AUD goes down again.
I think it will reach 0.7200 - 0.7230 first at the very least.
  • #94,351
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:18am Dec 21, 2015 9:18am
Buy AU at 0.7181,SL at 0.7115 which is the bottom of correction after leading diagonal from 0.7096
I abandoned sell trade already after that spike up after FED decision and that leading diagonal from 0.7096 was my final argument to swich to buy side.This pair refuses to go down.Starting point of leading diagonal was at exactly 78.6% retracement of movement from 0.7016 back in November.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #94,352
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:26am Dec 21, 2015 9:26am
there is no good or bad analysis. it is all about TIMING.
As Above, So Below
  • #94,353
  • Dec 21, 2015 12:41pm Dec 21, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting countdown
AudUsd ====> Buy Stop = 71854 / TP = 72021 / SL = 71627 if this order trigger ; open 2* lot Sell Stop = 71627 / TP = 71519 / SL = 71854 GL
Get out of this position at 20:00(gmt+2) without gain.. Deleted sell stop position .. Done for the day GL all
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #94,354
  • Dec 21, 2015 12:42pm Dec 21, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting tashkent
there is no good or bad analysis. it is all about TIMING.
Who wants to be a good trader, listen this guy carefully..
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #94,355
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:46pm Dec 21, 2015 2:46pm
Whats everyone thoughts for 2016? Last month most people said they think it'll drop down to 68-69, wondering what you guys think?
  • #94,356
  • Dec 21, 2015 4:54pm Dec 21, 2015 4:54pm
Up up we go. For now, my bias is up and I'm long AUDCAD.
:: everything is awesome ::
  • #94,357
  • Dec 21, 2015 5:42pm Dec 21, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting Kichie
Whats everyone thoughts for 2016? Last month most people said they think it'll drop down to 68-69, wondering what you guys think?
One of the key things which has dragged AUD down is the commoditiues rout. Now oil and iron at least are about as low as they can go. Next thing to watch will be Australia's export volumes, because a severe slowdown in Chinese steel production (which is quite possible next year) can send exports down even if the price of iron doesn't drop further. This I think will be the next large (possible) drive of further AUD downfall.

The next biggest thing would be the Fed vs RBA rates, but that's even harder to predict, who knows what will happen and in what timeframe. Base scenario is further Fed tightening and RBA lowers rates further, but it would easily be 3 or 6 or more months out depending on how things play out.
  • #94,358
  • Dec 21, 2015 6:06pm Dec 21, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting Kichie
Whats everyone thoughts for 2016? Last month most people said they think it'll drop down to 68-69, wondering what you guys think?
Stay long USD
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #94,359
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:14pm Dec 21, 2015 10:14pm
Was expecting some festive volume for this pair, boy i was wrong. It gave me more smiles for the festive season.

Note: A breakout has occurred.

I went long from .7169.

Cheers!
Attached Image
  • #94,360
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:35pm Dec 21, 2015 10:35pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} One of the key things which has dragged AUD down is the commoditiues rout. Now oil and iron at least are about as low as they can go..
Commodity prices can, and probably will, continue lower into 2016 and beyond. But for arguments sake, let's assume they have bottomed. That does not mean it is already reflected in the Aussie dollar. It will have a flow on effect that will last years. Particularly if prices stay low long term (which they should).

I agree with all of your other points. RBA likely to cut interest rates even lower in 2016. I've got my eye on the ASX200 which looks to be setting up for a run at 45xx (over 5100 atm) which will cause a bit of panic locally.

It is a great time to be trading commodity currencies. USD strengthening long term and commodity prices tanking. There is only one way to go, and that is DOWN. My analysis has the Aussie dipping to 60 cents next near. The only thing to do, is sell the rallies.
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