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10% per month

  • #21
  • Dec 12, 2015 4:05am Dec 12, 2015 4:05am
Learn to scalp with tight stop, not only is it the safest but can also be the most profitable in the long run.

Stay away from news and announcements as the markets are a minefield during these times.

Good luck.
  • #22
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:50pm Dec 16, 2015 12:50pm
10% is surely possible, but I advice you to aim lower because I guess that you will get some problems in the first months with real money trading. If you have traded for like 3-6 months straigth with real money you will have a better indication wether you can get 10% each month!
  • #23
  • Dec 16, 2015 10:11pm Dec 16, 2015 10:11pm
Quoting Skotidas
My plan is to swing trade only indices like DAX or SP500 when they pullback from a loss. By this I mean that, I will wait until an index price falls 3% - 5% and when I realise it's going to climb back, I will open long positions. Simple as that. I have one major fear, the crashes...
Hi, I think the whole scenario you have in your head is realistic, but do the equity indexes drop that much each month? I'm sure you've researched it, so you know what you're looking for.

If you're worried about crashes you can do this with Options. Debit spreads have a limited downside, plus hedging is easy. My US broker doesn't offer DAX, so I can't talk about that, but both /ES futures and SPY ETF have good options with lots of liquidity, even far out the money.

Rob M.
  • #24
  • Dec 16, 2015 10:17pm Dec 16, 2015 10:17pm
My thoughts mirror those of most of the other traders here in suggesting you lower your expectations.

10% is doable, but you're going to need to leverage the heck out of your account. If/when that grows to a substantial sum you're going to have a hard time staying unemotional when you hit an inevitable 30-40% drawdown.

If you can do 3-5% per month for 3+ years you'll have investors beating down your door trying to give you money to manage.
  • #25
  • Dec 18, 2015 12:10am Dec 18, 2015 12:10am
you should get 10% on demo for several months or a micro account before you even think of investing real money.. FX is not easy.. It is not an ATM machine. And you must master several market conditons.. Trends.. Sideways and whippy... Grinding market..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #26
  • Dec 18, 2015 5:29am Dec 18, 2015 5:29am
Quoting Skotidas
Hello. I am an amateur trader, only one year of trading experience (but a lot of work and passion for that, including hundreds of hours searching, reading and demo trading). I have a question, I plan to invest some money at last. And I target returns of 10% per month for a span of 5 Years in a row without any withdrawal in these 5 Years. So to build a good capital to trade for a living after those years. (I am 25 btw) Is it achievable to profit 8%~12% every month? And what is the best and SAFEST way to achieve that? What knowledge do I need to have?...
Yes U could achieve 10% per month in Currencies Trading if:
1. At least you have $10.000 (Ten Thousand Green Bucks is Must!) to Start.
2. 25 pips a day is enough per pair, say you just trade 2 pairs on EU/GU only from Start.
3. Compounding your risk relative to size of Ur Account, say 2.5% risk is a must from Start.

Yes U could survive in Currencies Trading and U could trade for a living and withdrawn profit per month.

Do not trade Index!
Advice from my teacher tah

Indices, Market Makers & Banks

Indices, like the US Dollar Index is only a reflection of what is happening to the values of the components of the index. It can be manipulated by manipulating the value of the key components. Who has the resources to do this? The major banks worldwide, with interlocking directorships and therefore of the "same mind", and with unlimited resources to use to manipulate prices, can easily manipulate the value of anything traded.

For example, in the USofA that "worst President of all", tricky George Bush, Jr. removed the limitations on banks to create credit, or fiat money. Do you think this imbecile thought to do this himself? So, with unlimited resources, all the major banking/investment houses (like GS) can instantly put on their market "play" and create whatever "appearance" they wish, in order to set things up to "steal" money from others. We are talking legal fraud on a hugely profitable scale!

Someone recently (past month or so) posted that market makers were limited to 200 pips price manipulation per day, so as to not "rock the boat" of any market. Two hundred pips? Gee, think of the millions the stinking banks can make on that legal bit of price manipulation,...per day if they have a mind to do it!

tah
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #27
  • Edited 6:43am Dec 18, 2015 5:47am | Edited 6:43am
Hi,

I'm totally a newbie. I am wondering how much ROI consistently every one in the FF community makes in a month?
I have been trading in demo account for a few months now and things just going great for me but there is something
stuck on my mind before I going live next month.

Because I saw a post on FF made by M.A.C Doug and said

"If you can do 10% per month consistently you are one of the best traders that ever lived, literally one in a million.
Every second trader here claims to be making this, and more but not one can prove it via verified statement.
Nearly everyone loses.

5% per month compounded would give you a 100% return for the year and outperform the best of the best hedge funds. These are managed by traders on huge salaries and bonuses for their expertise.

If you can do just 10% per year, not month, you could attract millions of dollars of investors money after that sort of consistent return. Bernie Madoff got millions of dollars of investment with a 10% per year return. Problem was he couldn't actually achieve it, so he just pretended he did

If you can hold an account for a year without losing it you would have done better than most, that is the reality"

and this a quote from trader21 and he said

"No it's not possible. Think about it: 10 to 20% per month, that would be over 100% per year. No one does that Profit, nobody ever has, nobody ever will. The best of the best make 20-30% per year, which is very high. Why should you be better than the best? It's pretty unlikely"

I am not trying to put doubt that people couldn't making 10% ROI a month consistently but this is not my first time hearing it people said that nobody ever made it 10% ROI consistently well even George Soros or Timothy Sykes haven't reach it So I want to know what is the ROI people made in here so I know what to set a realistic goal for next 5 years of my future.

10% a year?
20% a year?
30% a year?
40% a year?

Please no bashing on my comment, I just want to learn what is the right ROI I want to set for my future in the 5 years! I would love to hear a senior of FF community thoughts and opinion about this. BTW have a great trading day guys.

Love and Respect

Trading Emperor
  • #28
  • Dec 18, 2015 9:56pm Dec 18, 2015 9:56pm
Quoting Skotidas
Hello. I am an amateur trader, only one year of trading experience (but a lot of work and passion for that, including hundreds of hours searching, reading and demo trading). I have a question, I plan to invest some money at last. And I target returns of 10% per month for a span of 5 Years in a row without any withdrawal in these 5 Years. So to build a good capital to trade for a living after those years. (I am 25 btw) Is it achievable to profit 8%~12% every month? And what is the best and SAFEST way to achieve that? What knowledge do I need to have?...

Your returns are not a function of trade frequency or volume. They are a function of the market's volatility minus your trading costs.
  • #29
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:36pm Dec 18, 2015 10:36pm
Quoting Tradeemperor
....
I don't really know who M.A.C Doug is but comparing hedge funds to retail trader is just as you would compare a truck driver to a person sitting in a car. A truck driver might spend much more time on a road than a usual person but you are still able to move faster in a car than he is in his truck.

Hedge funds are not supposed to have the same risk/return profile as you are able to achieve on a retail basis. They have to follow stricter rules and have to move much more capital around. They are limited to a certain type of trading and percent wise you are certainly be able to outperform them.

If I had 10 million bucks in my trading account I wouldn't bother to aim for the 100% or more a year, why should I?, but if you account is smaller go for it. Just take a look at the big investment banks and hft they make unbelievable huge returns and there was a huge controversy about firms front running their clients because they haven't had a single loosing month. There are ways to exploit the market and to make great returns just because someone says it is impossible you should not stop looking for ways to trade.

I would not trade for 10% or even 15% p.a.
  • #30
  • Dec 19, 2015 3:57am Dec 19, 2015 3:57am
Reading your replies carefully, I can sense the beauty of trading hides in the mixed way any person approaches it.
I decided to give my plan a try with a demo account. My rules include trading only NASDAQ, and only long positions with certain entry "requirments" to take advantage of the natural pullback that NASDAQ shows since 2002 (13 years of uptrend). To cause some confusion Ι mention that I will not use Stop Loss, I will let the drawdown to go as far as my account can hold, in order to protect from a margin call, I use leverage 1:5, so NASDAQ will have to fall about 19%~20% to get a margin call, which is almost impossible judging from the historical prices since 2002, even in August 2015 when everything crashed it went down about 15%.

You can see my progress here:
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/151680

Unfortunately with a 1000$ account position sizing is a little hard to adjust in a Martingale strategy, giving the fact that my leverage is up to 1:5, but I will try to manage it the best way possible.
Waiting for your opinions that shaped through your experiences.
  • #31
  • Dec 19, 2015 10:20am Dec 19, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Skotidas
..My rules include trading only NASDAQ, and only long positions with certain entry "requirments" to take advantage of the natural pullback that NASDAQ shows since 2002 (13 years of uptrend). To cause some confusion Ι mention that I will not use Stop Loss, I will let the drawdown to go as far as my account can hold, in order to protect from a margin call, I use leverage 1:5, so NASDAQ will have to fall about 19%~20% to get a margin call, which is almost impossible judging from the historical prices since 2002, even in August 2015 when everything...
I'm glad you're doing this in simulator. NDX lost 52% in the 2008 crash and 80% in the 2000 crash, and it's likely we're heading into a bear market now. The major indexes can't make new highs, have been consolidating for 2015, and despite what Janet is Yellin and BHO is insisting, the US economy isn't in great shape. If you're making this investment with the Qs you can easily hedge with long puts or bear put spreads. On the other hand, if we're not heading to a bear market, these levels are a pretty good buy.

Rob M.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NDX.png Size: 183 KB
  • #32
  • Dec 19, 2015 11:50am Dec 19, 2015 11:50am
Quoting Skotidas
Hello. I am an amateur trader, only one year of trading experience (but a lot of work and passion for that, including hundreds of hours searching, reading and demo trading). I have a question, I plan to invest some money at last. And I target returns of 10% per month for a span of 5 Years in a row without any withdrawal in these 5 Years. So to build a good capital to trade for a living after those years. (I am 25 btw) Is it achievable to profit 8%~12% every month? And what is the best and SAFEST way to achieve that? What knowledge do I need to have?...
my humble advise, do not make target on X%. do the best we can do with the best resource we have, accept what the market give to us. if day traders then accept how much market can give on that day, if more long term trader applied same. we can not control the market but sure we can control our action.
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #33
  • Dec 19, 2015 12:33pm Dec 19, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting Rob Mondave
{quote} I'm glad you're doing this in simulator. NDX lost 52% in the 2008 crash and 80% in the 2000 crash, and it's likely we're heading into a bear market now. The major indexes can't make new highs, have been consolidating for 2015, and despite what Janet is Yellin and BHO is insisting, the US economy isn't in great shape. If you're making this investment with the Qs you can easily hedge with long puts or bear put spreads. On the other hand, if we're not heading to a bear market, these levels are a pretty good buy. Rob M. {image}
Thank you, I have in mind that my strategy is not solid for every situation, I know that in a case of a bearish trend or a crash I'm going to wipe out my investment.
But 1000$ is something I can afford to lose, even if as a student for now, is still hard to make that money.
So my call is to take the risk, if I avoid a crash until I double my account I will withdraw the starting capital and put it in a different account, to trade with a different, safer in the long run, and "adjustable to the market trend" strategy, which I hope to find out in the near future with hard study on the markets combined with the opinions and experiences of traders like you.

I think is quite irrelevant to the topic to kindly ask what do you trade,how you trade it and what would you recommend me to learn next?
I'm not that good at forex trading so far, I surely prefer commodities and indices which trend more. Do you recommend to spend more time studying the forex market? Or should I try stocks?
  • #34
  • Edited 4:50pm Dec 19, 2015 4:02pm | Edited 4:50pm
Quoting Skotidas
{quote} ..I think is quite irrelevant to the topic to kindly ask what do you trade,how you trade it and what would you recommend me to learn next? I'm not that good at forex trading so far, I surely prefer commodities and indices which trend more. Do you recommend to spend more time studying the forex market? Or should I try stocks?

Hi- I trade Forex, Oil futures, and Options on ETFs (mostly energy [USO, XOP and XLE] and sometimes equity [SPY and IWM]). With Forex and Options I trade multi-week and multi-month - the longer the time frame the more reliable is the trend, chart patterns, indicators, and all of that, and I daytrade Oil futures.

In a strong trend I trade either breakouts in the direction of the trend or deep, deep (must be deep) pullbacks reversing back into the direction of the trend. In a weak trend a channel usually forms and I'll buy the bottom of the channel in an uptrend and sell the top of the channel in a downtrend. In a sideways range I'll sell/buy the upper/lower Bollinger Bands. I also consider Support/Resistance (technical levels) and Demand/Supply (fundamental levels) for entries (sometimes) and exits (usually).

In all of this, multiple timeframe analysis is vital for bigger-picture trend, momentum, chart pattern and likely price bias. Trading the Weekly chart I study the Quarterly and Monthly charts, and trading the 5-minute (daytrading) I study the 15, 60, 240 and Daily.

My best recommendation is to do what it seems like you're already doing, that is to treat trading like anything else you want to learn. Dive into it just as you would an individual sport like tennis or golf, or learning a musical instrument. Learning to trade requires reading, studying, asking a lot of questions and practicing, practicing, practicing. But as I wrote, it seems like you're already doing this.

I like trading Oil because it makes me feel like a cool, hardcore trader, and I like trading Forex because I'm better at it than other asset classes, so you should go with the asset class, or even individual instrument (symbol) that turns you on the most. There's nothing better about Stocks than Forex or NDX, so go with Stocks if you want to go in that direction, but otherwise don't bother.

But I think most importantly, start with one thing now or in the next month or two and stick with it, not deviating to other asset classes, for a long time, at least a year. Every trader needs something solid underneath his feet - a reliable instrument he knows inside-and-out, or it could even be a single chart pattern or way of looking at the market - but something well-practiced and reliable. Getting the first reliable thing in your trading is the hardest, then the second will be easier and the third easier still. This is vital.

I hope this helps. Feel free to message me here, I usually come to Forex Factory 4 or 5 days a week.

Rob M.
  • #35
  • Dec 19, 2015 4:07pm Dec 19, 2015 4:07pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yes U could achieve 10% per month in Currencies Trading if: 1. At least you have $10.000 (Ten Thousand Green Bucks is Must!) to Start. 2. 25 pips a day is enough per pair, say you just trade 2 pairs on EU/GU only from Start. 3. Compounding your risk relative to size of Ur Account, say 2.5% risk is a must from Start. Yes U could survive in Currencies Trading and U could trade for a living and withdrawn profit per month. Do not trade Index! Advice from my teacher tah Indices, Market Makers & Banks Indices, like the US Dollar Index is only...

Can please please share where their source is from? I would like to know on bank manipulation. I believe it just would like a source.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #36
  • Edited 11:30pm Dec 19, 2015 11:15pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Can please please share where their source is from? I would like to know on bank manipulation. I believe it just would like a source.
Here U Go:
1. http://www.zerohedge.com/search/apac...h/Bank%20Fraud
2. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...ral-bank-fraud
3. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...on-fraud-abuse

And many more...like the currencies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...y-rigging.html
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #37
  • Dec 20, 2015 5:21am Dec 20, 2015 5:21am
Quoting Rob Mondave
{quote} Hi- I trade Forex, Oil futures, and Options on ETFs (mostly energy [USO, XOP and XLE] and sometimes equity [SPY and IWM]). With Forex and Options I trade multi-week and multi-month - the longer the time frame the more reliable is the trend, chart patterns, indicators, and all of that, and I daytrade Oil futures. In a strong trend I trade either breakouts in the direction of the trend or deep, deep (must be deep) pullbacks reversing back into the direction of the trend. In a weak trend a channel usually forms and I'll buy the bottom of the...
I really thank you for your time responding in such detailed, constructive and useful way, I could say you just inspired me a little bit more.
And believe me, I take notes of every single reply that I find interesting and "investigate" it spending a lot of time, trying to understand what experiences hide behind your words, and what I can learn out of this.

Quoting Rob Mondave
{quote}multiple timeframe analysis is vital for bigger-picture trend, momentum, chart pattern and likely price bias
Well, if trading was a building, that would be the foundations. Even as an amateur I open simultaneously 5 or 6 different timeframe charts of the same instrument to get the big picture.
  • #38
  • Dec 20, 2015 7:09am Dec 20, 2015 7:09am
Quoting Skotidas
{quote} 1000$ is something I can afford to lose, even if as a student for now, is still hard to make that money. So my call is to take the risk, if I avoid a crash until I double my account I will withdraw the starting capital and put it in a different account, to trade with a different, safer in the long run, and "adjustable to the market trend" strategy, which I hope to find out in the near future with hard study on the markets combined with the opinions and experiences of traders like you.
If you can afford to lose it, gamble! you can double your money with 1-2 trades in one day. once you start trading with money can't afford to lose, gambling does not work.
As Above, So Below
  • #39
  • Dec 20, 2015 9:15am Dec 20, 2015 9:15am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} If you can afford to lose it, gamble! you can double your money with 1-2 trades in one day. once you start trading with money can't afford to lose, gambling does not work.
Ι do not want to gamble.
I mean ok I can afford to lose that money but in the process at least I would have learned something out of this, so to trade better next time.
If I wanted to waste the money for nothing I would better bet them all in roulette red colour, a faster way to double up or lose it all, but I respect every cent out of my pocket, even those that I can afford to lose, I'd rather lose them in a way that will return something.
Thanks for answering by the way.
  • #40
  • Dec 20, 2015 10:59am Dec 20, 2015 10:59am
however you want to name it. it is what it is.
As Above, So Below
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