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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,261
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:22pm Dec 18, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting sisse
Imminent PANIC break alerts!!! triggered in OIL ... again .... Energies close losing 34.9x unlocks one more extension .... Watch-out as the odds of OPEC just sitting and doing nothing on a new panic break down are very slim....A quick leg will guarantee to short-circuit the board and send major shockwaves across the world... sisse

Agree on this - yesterday only 6% bulls left in Crude

This or the next (marginal) low may do the trick

Should then go at least above 43
  • #138,262
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:28pm Dec 18, 2015 2:28pm
...and a clean sweep in equites for the close .... Triple play completed, flawless close for the hikes play and as expected we completed the initial domino....

Quoting The Fool
{quote} stars are aligning.....OPEC the wild card, if they come through in a big way to support oil the Santa rally will be greased lightning...
Quoting sisse
{quote} ECB flop tomorrow (and inline/uneventful NFP) [check] may see SANTA having to come back for Eastern ... .... got 2100.xx [check]--->1978.xx [in play]potential early alerts trigger for today's close holding that level for the rate hikes play [check]..tracking closely equities today... sisse
@Fool Santa's decided to only give presents to those who did the homework this year... je je je.... Just crumbs left to complete the year and test the bottom of the range ...after we are set for a long choppy and bumpy zigzag for the foreseeable future...


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,263
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:43pm Dec 18, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting sisse
... @Fool Santa's decided to only give presents to those who did the homework this year... je je je.... Just crumbs left to complete the year and test the bottom of the range ...after we are set for a long choppy and bumpy zigzag for the foreseeable future... sisse
yep, a rate hike is a rate hike after all, but the oil rout is still swinging the biggest (st)ick, imho - that and the knock-on effects of crashing oil on high-yield, etc - US equities won't rally with any force until that steamboat turns around...... as for old Fool he only had a few small Dec SPY call spreads to catch a Santa rally, most money was/is in variety of ^vix spreads - I've been set for a late Dec/Jan ^vix spike for many weeks and already setting up the traps for the reversion of that into Jan/Feb. One way or another, something will pay - just trying to bag more than I lose, same oldshit.

Merry Christmas, sisse & hope you will close out 2015 in good shape.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,264
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:48pm Dec 18, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting sisse
Imminent PANIC break alerts!!! triggered in OIL ... again ....
Today I bought a USO Apr calls butterfly - $13/$15/$17 - risking $15 to make 10x that or better with a perfect stop at Apr expiry of WTI around $45 +/-....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,265
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:50pm Dec 18, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting IMARICH1
... I am uncertain if the correlation has changed...
No it hasn't changed but OIL is unsustainable both Fundamentally and Technically at these levels and slope for much longer so we are in danger zone ...something has to change ...very soon ...

Quote
I am looking for .0735 as well and a then next week a finally leg to test .097X one last time. I am looking to close out my positions today (.0958 and .0800) if we reach the .0735 handle and look to reload next week. .0735 is my Target for now due the possibility of a re-test (.097X)again....

We run out of time on the NY opening range and 1.080x held the CUT (it was a key cut today), from then on, dollar (euro) is just moving as collateral of US equites that are fighting but losing a key close as expected after hikes...

Quote
Are you saying you do not believe we will get that re-test ....

I didn't say anything like that.

As for today close it's definitively not a trade I will be interested to take given that we barely have a couple of proper days left (if any) for the rest of the year and is going against a major fundamental and technical train ... Today failure to take the 1.080xx handle killed pretty much anything interesting in the EURO until prolly next year...

You may have a marginal chance to go long on Monday for strictly TA short term reasons (a quick test to the 1.070x handle with equities setting a temp floor for the holidays) but you will need a bit of luck as market will enter in comatose sessions rather early next week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,266
  • Dec 18, 2015 3:02pm Dec 18, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
.... One way or another, something will pay - just trying to bag more than I lose, same oldshit. Merry Christmas, sisse & hope you will close out 2015 in good shape.
...likewise ... I am not closing shop this year (planning a proper winter break in Feb) but on the bank holidays so I will see you around for the traditional wrap up of the year ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,267
  • Dec 18, 2015 3:15pm Dec 18, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Agree on this - yesterday only 6% bulls left in Crude This or the next (marginal) low may do the trick Should then go at least above 43
How do you know about the 6% ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #138,268
  • Dec 18, 2015 3:32pm Dec 18, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting Lavanda;8653703...Is this a typo? [B
Do you mean[/b] 1.1070?
No. why typo ?

... a quick test to the 1.070x handle on Monday/Tuesday ---> equities setting temp floor --> euro unlocking a potential short term leg to 1.097x (the OP is referring) during the doldrums of the holiday seasson ...basically the last farewell short term rally in euro at these levels for a few quarters...thats the leg the OP is referring and we are talking about...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,269
  • Dec 18, 2015 3:35pm Dec 18, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} No. why typo ? ... a quick test to the 1.070x handle on Monday/Tuesday ---> equities setting temp floor --> euro unlocking a potential short term leg to 1.097x (the OP is referring) during the doldrums of the holiday seasson ...basically the last farewell short term rally in euro at these levels for a few quarters...thats the leg the OP is referring... sisse
Thanks for the answer, I realized it was not a typo, I didn't understand your map.
  • #138,270
  • Dec 18, 2015 3:44pm Dec 18, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} How do you know about the 6% ?
there are some services asking mainly option retail traders. One of this sources is the DSI from Jake Bernstein.

Sentiment data are not to be used for entry/exit decisions alone, you should also consider other factors as well. I am looking mainly at Elliott Wave structure, as well as the positioning of retail traders in general.

I also get data from a friend who's resource I can not disclose
  • #138,271
  • Dec 18, 2015 3:59pm Dec 18, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} there are some services asking mainly option retail traders. One of this sources is the DSI from Jake Bernstein. Sentiment data are not to be used for entry/exit decisions alone, you should also consider other factors as well. I am looking mainly at Elliott Wave structure, as well as the positioning of retail traders in general. I also get data from a friend who's resource I can not disclose
Thanks for it mate
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #138,272
  • Dec 18, 2015 4:00pm Dec 18, 2015 4:00pm
From the last couple of posts I see most traders assume EURUSD is bound to continue grinding down for the forseeable future (mid/long term) if nothing major happens because of US rate hike implications. Also, ECB QE weighs down on EUR and will continue to do so for a relatively long time.

I'm always wary when things seem so "easy" and simple. In this specific case I always tend to wonder what kind of "unforeseen" news it would take to stir things up and catch us all by surprise. Chinese rate cut situation comes to mind. It also indirectly impacted US index and thus also EURUSD. Even the different threats of war come to mind that could have a severe impact on currencies and ultimately traders' dreams.

How "heavy" would unforeseen news have to be in order to catch us off guard this time? Any thoughts about this? I know this is all wild and unneeded speculation but I think it's healthy not to fall victim to "easy" situations. It tricks the mind into taking wrong decisions so we could all learn from insights from other people about the subject. What do you think? Which external influences would have some impact most likely? Do these influences have to be heavy or would even relatively small surprises be able to alter the projected course of currencies?
  • #138,273
  • Dec 18, 2015 4:47pm Dec 18, 2015 4:47pm
Quoting ExForX
From the last couple of posts I see most traders assume EURUSD is bound to continue grinding down for the forseeable future (mid/long term) if nothing major happens because of US rate hike implications. Also, ECB QE weighs down on EUR and will continue to do so for a relatively long time. I'm always wary when things seem so "easy" and simple. In this specific case I always tend to wonder what kind of "unforeseen" news it would take to stir things up and catch us all by surprise. Chinese rate cut situation comes to mind. It also indirectly impacted...
agreed. expecting some long term trend changes in most pairs early next year. keeping a very close eye on USDJPY. people think yesterday's drop was just a reaction to BOJ statement. i speculate there are deeper reasons for sell of and it will continue at any given favorable event.
As Above, So Below
  • #138,274
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:11pm Dec 18, 2015 10:11pm
Hello sisse or any one:

What is the maximum number of pips that EURUSD or USDJPY or some other pair has moved in a few minutes or seconds because of some disastrous news other than the Swiss peg incident on January 15, 2015 ?

I am trying to gauge how many pips you could be locked in a bad Forex trade before you could get out, like what happened with the Swiss peg incident but for other cases than that. Does any one know of any examples ?

Thanks

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,275
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:45pm Dec 18, 2015 11:45pm
Disastrousness cannot be predicted we can only obey our map ie stops limits . If on the ball we may be able to take advantage of these opportunities.
Mind, would you not be aware of this.
Picking such levels would truly be a gamble.
Regards
  • #138,276
  • Dec 19, 2015 1:39am Dec 19, 2015 1:39am
Quoting Borg
Hello sisse or any one: What is the maximum number of pips that EURUSD or USDJPY or some other pair has moved in a few minutes or seconds
i think 30000 pips ..... 5 digit broker .... usdchf ... when chf changed the bench mark rate ... i hope it helps...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,277
  • Dec 19, 2015 9:43am Dec 19, 2015 9:43am
here's what they said about oil one year ago:

http://www.reuters.com/article/oil-p...0TO1XN20141204

"OPEC's abandoning of oil market management last Thursday feels like one of those seminal points in the history of oil," said Credit Suisse analyst Jan Stuart, who cut his 2015 Brent price forecast by $16.25 to $75.25."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,278
  • Edited 1:15am Dec 21, 2015 12:08am | Edited 1:15am
Quoting The Fool
here's what they said about oil one year ago:
Jan Stuart at least got the direction right in 12/14. Here's what he says now: the wti/brent spread will collapse (well that makes sense if the US is going to start exporting crude)...and that wti will bottom by end January, with next Summer marked by "massive" supply shortages. No numbers...lol...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...de-oil-spreads
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-20_2314brentwti.png Size: 52 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,279
  • Dec 21, 2015 12:16am Dec 21, 2015 12:16am
pundits are a dime a dozen....some are good, most not
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit...aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,280
  • Dec 23, 2015 4:33am Dec 23, 2015 4:33am
Quoting sisse
.... have a marginal chance to go long on Monday for strictly TA short term reasons (a quick test to the 1.070x handle with equities setting a temp floor [check...although in strictly TA sense we failed by 1 tick to test the 1.070x handle] for the holidays) but you will need a bit of luck as market will enter in comatose sessions rather early next week...
Quoting sisse
... quick test to the 1.070x handle on Monday/Tuesday [check] ---> equities setting temp floor --> euro unlocking a potential short term leg to 1.097x [check] ....
...and that was pretty much it for the week for the last update of the year. Well done to all who played the light bounce on air. 1.097x tested as expected in the Euro and we are ready for the doldrums of the last week of the year.

...1.097x only level in play until the yearly close.

Here nothing to do except let it play out so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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