After rate hike, why is the EUR/USD hiking up? | Forex Factory

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After rate hike, why is the EUR/USD hiking up?

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 16, 2015 12:04pm Dec 16, 2015 12:04pm
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #2
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:34pm Dec 16, 2015 12:34pm
I can only assume it's a big institution buying to cover shares they were shorting awhile ago... that and the fact that the rate increase was already expected so it didn't come off as much of a surprise. Besides, it still looks bearish to me. Market just got super volatile during/after that announcement
  • #3
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:33am Dec 17, 2015 7:33am
I think that too ,that the EUR/USD is going down soon,and even if the rate hike it was expected,it make no sense that it drop 50 pips than reverse 120 pips.so they triggered the sell orders and than took small and medium sl .I think this is completely Manipulation,and proves my theory that no one can predict the direction of the market.(:
  • #4
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:41am Dec 17, 2015 7:41am
the rate raise was priced and the excepted happen and that was the cause ,if fed said they will hike more than 4 times it was going to go down but the excepted happen and it says or there a say buy the rumor sell the fact .so the price went down then up when news came out .
have a nice day please
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #5
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:55am Dec 17, 2015 7:55am
Opened @ 1.0944 as Janet started to speak, right now 1.0873 down more then a cent. Sometimes the market doesnt move as quick as you want it too.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #6
  • Dec 17, 2015 8:06am Dec 17, 2015 8:06am
Quoting fxnow
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So because the market did something else than you "EXPECTED" - You suggest its Market manipulation?
MY SITTING, NEVER MY THINKING!
  • #7
  • Dec 17, 2015 8:45am Dec 17, 2015 8:45am
Quoting fxnow
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The news really means very little in terms of a traders perspective. What's more pertinent information for a trader is where liquidity and orders are located, regardless of a news function. Price always seeks liquidity, it's the essence of the market. As a retail investor, you cannot see the depth of liquidity, you must use the market's footprint(chart) to interpret this. This is the struggle and challenge that is trading.
  • #8
  • Dec 17, 2015 8:51am Dec 17, 2015 8:51am
Who cares why is Eur/Usd going up? - trade your patterns/oscillators/S-D levels.

- ask yourself why do you ask that question...
  • #9
  • Dec 17, 2015 9:29am Dec 17, 2015 9:29am
Hi there,

Market manipulation...

People have been waiting for this rake hike since even before the summer. First it was anticipated to be held on september but it didn't. However, there is a thing that was almost for sure : There would be a rate hike before year end... So what was left ? yep, that's right, december meeting.
Since the whole world (at least the educated part) was aware of this rate hike, wouldn't it be possible that it was already priced in ?

And, we are now about 24h past rate hike, and what is eur/usd doing ? that's right falling.
After big news, people closing positions on the one side, and people opening new positions on the other, you get nice spikes.

By the way, you are talking about eur/usd that went up after announcement. Check out othe usd pairs, almost all of them went against the usd immediately after the annoucement. They are now all back to "normal"

Be always careful about volatility (or the lack of it) before and after important news (not always the red ones, but most of the time, they are the same)
  • #10
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:19pm Dec 17, 2015 12:19pm
Thanks guys for your opinions.
I just want to clarify 1 thing :i don't complain because the market went against my expectation ,as all the few strategies i use in my trading have 1 main concept which is :never try to predict the market 's direction,only follow it .
I even don't care about news except the big ones as NFP .
My post was meant to clarify that there's no Forex experts and predictors ,the market does what the market want and yes the big money(institutional or private) manipulate prices.
But yesterday truly i gambled because it was 1 in a life time condition,first hike in 7 years,but as because i was expecting 200 pips 1 bearish candle ,i closed my positions at the last moment with no loss when it reversed.
  • #11
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:29pm Dec 17, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting fxnow
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
so basically, you are expecting 400-500 pip fast sharp move in an expected direction because of something that was expected ? how much did you expect to make on that move, a million ?
Don't expect and don't believe anything here, a good advice.. I really mean it
  • #12
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:36pm Dec 17, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} so basically, you are expecting 400-500 pip fast sharp move in an expected direction because of something that was expected ? how much did you expect to make on that move, a million ? Don't expect and don't believe anything here, a good advice.. I really mean it
Hi Feline ,thanks for your advice,and i agree with you 100% ,but obviously i think you haven't read my last reply above to this thread ,here it's :

"Thanks guys for your opinions.
I just want to clarify 1 thing :i don't complain because the market went against my expectation ,as all the few strategies i use in my trading have 1 main concept which is :never try to predict the market 's direction,only follow it .
I even don't care about news except the big ones as NFP .
My post was meant to clarify that there's no Forex experts and predictors ,the market does what the market want and yes the big money(institutional or private) manipulate prices.
But yesterday truly i gambled because it was 1 in a life time condition,first hike in 7 years,but as because i was expecting 200 pips 1 bearish candle ,i closed my positions at the last moment with no loss when it reversed."
  • #13
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:55pm Dec 17, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting fxnow
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the market doing what it does. There is nor rhyme or reason for small retail players.

A hedge fund manager once told me - "you probably know more about the markets than I do, but I could care less about the in and outs of market dynamics... I only want to make money."

Remember the market CAN and WILL stay irrational for longer than any of us can remain solvent. So don't try to figure out why - just figure out how to profit no matter what the market does.
  • #14
  • Dec 18, 2015 9:59am Dec 18, 2015 9:59am
Expecting a logical market reaction to news is very naive. just doesnt work like that, never has.

Instead of taking the arbitrary logic in your head and forcing it upon the market, you should be listening to what the market is saying and forcing it upon your trade decisions. if you know how to listen correctly, the market can tell you a lot during news releases.
  • #15
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:06am Dec 18, 2015 10:06am
I think Yellen made it pretty clear they are taking their time and proceeding with caution.
  • #16
  • Dec 18, 2015 12:45pm Dec 18, 2015 12:45pm
Because the forex herd went short on the news. Therefore there was only one way to go; UP
  • #17
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:16pm Dec 18, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting Mingary
Because the forex herd went short on the news. Therefore there was only one way to go; UP
Although I do not disagree with this statement directly, being that when you have the herd leaning one way, it is normally better to take the other side however, in FX I do not find this to be the case.

My reasoning behind this is due to the fact that the majority of retail FX orders will never actually see the real interbank market. Most retail brokers will internally match all FX orders off against each other.
  • #18
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:05pm Dec 18, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting fxnow
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Before the rate decision, banks managed to balance out and protect their books.
So there was no bias and due to very thin liquidity the market could have gone anywhere.
  • #19
  • Dec 19, 2015 9:12am Dec 19, 2015 9:12am
Quoting fxnow
After the expected hike in the usd interest rate ,i expected the dollar to hike up and Eur/usd to drop to less than 1.05 ,instead it reached 1.1011?why is this happening ?is that market manipulation?or what?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The rate hike was expected so it had little effect on price. It is when something happens that is unexpected that large price moves happen.
You shouldn't be trading during illiquid, high-spread times anyway.


__________________________________________
>> Quinton’s Simple & Effortless Trading thread
  • #20
  • Feb 3, 2016 7:52am Feb 3, 2016 7:52am
Now anybody can say that what's happening now isn't manipulation and some big money guys or institution are trying to buy their third Bugati or jet?!!!!
So is there any logic that after German services are 55 (lower than expected 0.4 point) ,and ADP non farm payroll is higher 10000 jobs than expected,now EUR/USD is hiking over 1.1080 so fast?I bet expert and forecaster would say that the 0.5 point less than expected US PMI SERVICES is the cause?!!!!
This is 99.9999 % pure manipulation ,easy money for them ,and later they 'll take the pair 200 pips down.
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