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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #801
  • Edited 7:45am Dec 4, 2015 7:27am | Edited 7:45am
Ok so the 97% recurrent theory is for price overall.

Does it even matter unless we are at overall price extremes? Thinking out loud...

H recurrent statistic indy works if it's based on price not bars, or more rather bars and price are separated. Bars for time statistic and price for recurrent probability with the H parameters chosen. Being That wicks are not included in this indy, I feel it a flaw since I consider wicks clearly recurrent prices. Much respect for Kprsa and his work. I'd love for thoughts from him.

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  • #802
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:00am Dec 17, 2015 5:00am
Quoting BillYon
Ok so the 97% recurrent theory is for price overall. Does it even matter unless we are at overall price extremes? Thinking out loud... H recurrent statistic indy works if it's based on price not bars, or more rather bars and price are separated. Bars for time statistic and price for recurrent probability with the H parameters chosen. Being That wicks are not included in this indy, I feel it a flaw since I consider wicks clearly recurrent prices. Much respect for Kprsa and his work. I'd love for thoughts from him.
Wicks are for sure included in the calculation of recurrence at the RS indicator. I use bars/candles terminology in a sloppy way. I agree with you that it would be better to have plots like EEG signal for the price to determine the recurrence than using candlesticks, but this is what one has in MT4.

I'll follow this discussion and let you know what I think if you come up with more ideas/questions.

Cheers,
k
  • #803
  • Edited 1:07pm Dec 20, 2015 10:54am | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting BillYon
A 1 pip Renko chart was suggested to see recurrent prices better. Sounds good!
hello,
can i ask who suggested it ? also, are there charts with TZ and renko on them ? thanks.
  • #804
  • Dec 20, 2015 1:39pm Dec 20, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} hello, can i ask who suggested it ? also, are there charts with TZ and renko on them ? thanks.

have yet to explore it...

I forget who suggested it.
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  • #805
  • Dec 20, 2015 1:39pm Dec 20, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Wicks are for sure included in the calculation of recurrence at the RS indicator. I use bars/candles terminology in a sloppy way. I agree with you that it would be better to have plots like EEG signal for the price to determine the recurrence than using candlesticks, but this is what one has in MT4. I'll follow this discussion and let you know what I think if you come up with more ideas/questions. Cheers, k

OK great
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  • #806
  • Jan 14, 2016 3:25pm Jan 14, 2016 3:25pm
I dunno if anyone is still working on the ideas here? But someone suggested I give the thread a read and I did. So I've been playing around a bit with some of it, looking at ways of coming up with some useful stats.

About the discussion above about counting price vs. bars for recurrent...

Latest thing I've done was to try to look for various values of H, and investigating what % of price is revisited within a given span.

There are some other things I'd like to check, but looking @ H's from 2 all the way up to 400. Looking @ things like the average Tzone, height of total price area within a given h, percentage of transient bars, percentage of transient price/pips. I might run it again on a different size of bars to see how the numbers change.

As h increases, sure more of the price becomes reccurrent. I.e. with h==2, I saw that only 8% of it is transient. Going all the way up to 400 for example, price was 4.6% transient. Haven't seen anything that gets quite to that 3% number though. It could of course be the way that I am measuring it.

You can see the other column that shows the recurrent value with the bars.. that seems to be more inline with looking for the 97% stat.
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  • #807
  • Jan 17, 2016 12:23am Jan 17, 2016 12:23am
I wonder if there could be any use in studying transient zones that have already developed and confirmed?

I.e., how far does price typically away from it before returning? How likely does it return to that area at least once? If looking at that, how LONG do those two legs take to develop? In combination, individually?

With some of the data that I have...

if h==2, price returns to it 97.99% of the time.
* h==3, * * * * 97.46% of the time.
* h==5, * * * * 96.3% of the time.
* h==10, * * * * 95% of the time.
* h==20, * * * * 93% of the time.
* h==40, * * * * 90% of the time.

I have distances and timings for these things as well. I.e. if there is a confirmed transient area, how far does price traverse before returning? How long does the move away take? How long does the return take? I have this answers, but still looking for something useful to do with them. I still have yet to run this on different sized bar intervals to see how that changes anything also.
  • #808
  • Jan 20, 2016 9:46am Jan 20, 2016 9:46am
Quoting forrestang
I still have yet to run this on different sized bar intervals to see how that changes anything also.
Bar interval doesn't change anything.

A 6-hour bar with an h=3, has the same locations for zones as does a 1 hour bar with h=18. Also has the same percentage of returns to it. Or the percentages of returns to it are very close.
  • #809
  • Feb 3, 2016 3:13pm Feb 3, 2016 3:13pm
Quoting forrestang
I wonder if there could be any use in studying transient zones that have already developed and confirmed? I.e., how far does price typically away from it before returning? How likely does it return to that area at least once? If looking at that, how LONG do those two legs take to develop? In combination, individually? With some of the data that I have... if h==2, price returns to it 97.99% of the time. * h==3, * * * * 97.46% of the time. * h==5, * * * * 96.3% of the time. * h==10, * * * * 95% of the time. * h==20, * * * * 93% of the time. * h==40,...
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  • #810
  • Edited 2:58am Feb 7, 2016 2:41am | Edited 2:58am
Good to see all you good folks kicking up the TZ's again. It made me pull out all my old gear!
One way to trade the zone is when a ptz first forms. You will notice that price will be away from the the top of the zone when it starts. If price is needed number of pips away from the zone then enter a trade towards the zone. Now one issue is what to do if price runs away from you. If price has a 95% chance of being recurrent, I will trade small enough to withstand the average range of a monthly bar. So that is essentially no stop loss. If price does not come back at the end of my h, then I will cut the trade.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #811
  • Feb 7, 2016 5:24am Feb 7, 2016 5:24am
Quoting BillYon
So The problem I see with the indicators created to see transient zones is that they include the wick . If an adjustment can be made such that the left side of the zone depends on the bar's close we can capture the zones that are based on the left H breakout bar. To capture zones based on a constant price we can select or own constant pip value. so basically a counter breakout strategy. It may be valuable to look at the SSBO system to gauge recurrency probability for breaks from consolidation zones (CZs) and use the the prerequisite of a CZ prior...
Interesting... I made xixi TZ modification indicator for show broken zones ( cleared ). Get close price for make TZ i think is very interesting way for avoid cleared zones. I will check that option to see differences...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #812
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:41am Feb 8, 2016 12:41am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Wicks are for sure included in the calculation of recurrence at the RS indicator. I use bars/candles terminology in a sloppy way. I agree with you that it would be better to have plots like EEG signal for the price to determine the recurrence than using candlesticks, but this is what one has in MT4. I'll follow this discussion and let you know what I think if you come up with more ideas/questions. Cheers, k
Sorry K

Is it possible for an adjustment to the RS indicator that did not include the wicks?
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  • #813
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:43am Feb 8, 2016 12:43am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Interesting... I made xixi TZ modification indicator for show broken zones ( cleared ). Get close price for make TZ i think is very interesting way for avoid cleared zones. I will check that option to see differences...

Please do.

Let us know
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  • #814
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:57am Feb 8, 2016 12:57am
Quoting forrestang
I wonder if there could be any use in studying transient zones that have already developed and confirmed? I.e., how far does price typically away from it before returning? How likely does it return to that area at least once? If looking at that, how LONG do those two legs take to develop? In combination, individually? With some of the data that I have... if h==2, price returns to it 97.99% of the time. * h==3, * * * * 97.46% of the time. * h==5, * * * * 96.3% of the time. * h==10, * * * * 95% of the time. * h==20, * * * * 93% of the time. * h==40,...
OK first H transient zones should be very rare! what are you using that shows H=2 is 97% recurrent and on how much data?

So you are looking for average deviation of price before recurrence overall based on your data (time) period.
For example from 2010 til now what is the average deviation from any non recurrent price (PIP)?

Or what is your thought process on it?
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  • #815
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:11am Feb 8, 2016 1:11am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} OK first H transient zones should be very rare! what are you using that shows H=2 is 97% recurrent and on how much data? So you are looking for average deviation of price before recurrence overall based on your data (time) period. For example from 2010 til now what is the average deviation from any non recurrent price (PIP)? Or what is your thought process on it?
So you will or already have and indy that shows stats on cleared h transient zones as well as a deviation study?
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  • #816
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:21am Feb 8, 2016 1:21am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} So you will or already have and indy that shows stats on cleared h transient zones as well as a deviation study?
I've checked this idea. The part you quoted mentioned how far price deviates from non-recurrent price zone. I checked this, and it could just be me but I didn't notice anything that was obvious. What I saw was that the results where evenly distributed everywhere. But with a heavy skew of the samples being in the smaller range.

Also, I'm not saying there isn't anything of value, just that I didn't see anything I could make sense of while I was working on it.

I tried for different H's, filtered on up vs. down etc, no filter, mid transient vs top/bottom transient, etc. I also looked at how LONG it would take to return(number of bars). Again, same type of distribution. If I think about it tomorrow, I might put some of the results in the thread.

After some thinking about it, I pretty much stopped working on the idea of working with already formed transient zones and worked more on the idea of what to do as a transient zone is forming. At least then you have an expiry signal to work with. I can pretty much create stats for anything regarding transient zones, i just ran out of ideas and haven't worked on it much in a while.

But I still am interested in the topic.
  • #817
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:27am Feb 8, 2016 1:27am
Quoting forrestang
I dunno if anyone is still working on the ideas here? But someone suggested I give the thread a read and I did. So I've been playing around a bit with some of it, looking at ways of coming up with some useful stats. About the discussion above about counting price vs. bars for recurrent... Latest thing I've done was to try to look for various values of H, and investigating what % of price is revisited within a given span. There are some other things I'd like to check, but looking @ H's from 2 all the way up to 400. Looking @ things like the average...
Don't try to get at the 97% stat. Work from your own stats. All non recurrent prices are potentially transient until they become recurrent. Could be 10 years into the future. The 97% is a living theory of the market in general.

Once you have a high probability deviation average on cleared completed h-transient zones you can work out you risk per trade, stop loss...
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  • #818
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:34am Feb 8, 2016 1:34am
Quoting forrestang
{quote} I've checked this idea. The part you quoted mentioned how far price deviates from non-recurrent price zone. I checked this, and it could just be me but I didn't notice anything that was obvious. What I saw was that the results where evenly distributed everywhere. But with a heavy skew of the samples being in the smaller range. Also, I'm not saying there isn't anything of value, just that I didn't see anything I could make sense of while I was working on it. I tried for different H's, filtered on up vs. down etc, no filter, mid transient...

I see...

Yes I'm just catching back up on the topic as well.
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  • #819
  • Feb 8, 2016 5:48am Feb 8, 2016 5:48am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Sorry K Is it possible for an adjustment to the RS indicator that did not include the wicks?
Hey,

I think this makes sense for the mid-bar tz-s. I can try to do it this week (no promises as I am known for being slow)...

k
  • #820
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:49am Feb 8, 2016 8:49am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Don't try to get at the 97% stat. Work from your own stats. All non recurrent prices are potentially transient until they become recurrent. Could be 10 years into the future. The 97% is a living theory of the market in general. Once you have a high probability deviation average on cleared completed h-transient zones you can work out you risk per trade, stop loss...
I think so. This was some initial work I was doing after getting into this material. It seems that the initial premise was that 97% of price is recurrent. As this was stated over and over, so I think I wanted to at least prove this for myself in some way so that I could then work from there.

For if I found that price was only 50% recurrent, then I would either need to check how I was measuring something being recurrent(wrong measurement), or the initial premise wasn't worth exploring any further.

So initially it was just going through the process trying to prove the general premise of the idea. For me this was checking various H's, checking recurrent prices within a given H, and then outside of H(after a zone has been confirmed).

As a note though, just my opinion but I think it is important to explore whether price is recurrent WITHIN a given H. For after a zone is already established sure it may be returned to sometime in the future, but this might not assist in making trading decisions.
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