The Really Useless Thread

1. The headline / knee jerk reaction that is expected to be decent but limited with hikes (as everybody is on the same side) but Extreme with a flop
2. and the details with the conference about how gradual the hikes will be and the general outlooks for the FED decision. I expect to develop a bit slower and last well into the end of Q1 2016.
3. Not expecting much for the actual flows beyond the usual news moves but rather focusing in the main swings that will follow after ...

--> On the fundamental side

1. Not much to say that haven't been said in the last 6 months. First hike in play that will unlock the gradual path.
2. Markets and expectations heavily aligned (and digested most of the initial ranges) for a 0.25 increase. Only a flop (not expected at all) will send MAJOR shockwaves across the board as markets will be caught on the wrong foot.
3. In a nutshell, we will finally turn the page on first hikes expectations and we can focus back in the normal macro numbers as main movers and shakers..

--> On the technical side

1. In a nutshell MID TERM swings in PLAY.
2. There is so many instruments in play in key mid term areas that it will difficult to summarise. For those interested in main markets check conversation with fellow traders in the thread as all the majors are pretty much covered already in detail.
3. I will only focus in DOLLAR as main BENCHMARK for the move).
4. Maps are crystal clear:
   1. Hikes 0,25 unlock 104.xx (ref: 1.025x euro) in DX with extension 108.9x (ref: 0.98xx Euro) for Q1/Q2 2016.
   2. A flop for a super fast leg 95.1x and then extended chop zone until more data​

   
   

5. All dollar pairs tradable in direct alignment with dollar in full control.

--> For the actual flows (euro)

1. Like usual and today more than ever ALL MICRO and SHORT TERM levels RAISED for the actual headline.
2. Market is so heavily aligned to the hikes that we are set for a rather 'dull' FED short term for such a big news.
3. Double play (headline and conference) so very complex environment if you don't know what you are doing. 1.097x is the only level to track for the news and it will be in play as late as the M/Q/and Y close.
   1. Inline news with Dovish FED for a zigzag play: complete the leg 1.103x-> to the 1.070x handle and then to kill the year with the last fumes for a test 1.109x.
   2. Inline and hawkish FED will just provide speed and less bounce to 1.073x --> extended chop short term while bastards clear the year in equites and portfolios for a final failed test 1.097x for years end.
   3. A flop will caught market in the wrong side. It's clear all (those holding shorts) and even play the reverso if you can (not really realistic) 1.093x -> to 1.109x with max extension 1.128x before entering in extended chop zone for a while ...

   
   

Whatever the case, there are many play across the board for mid term swings that will provide a lot more juice than today's short term news play so for those in trades or planning to trade GL ...

Lets the dice roll ... here same levels, same trades (the ones already in), same potential plays (the ones planned) and same all ....

sisse