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  • #138,081
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:48pm Dec 11, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Pick one {image}
Can we go lower ?
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  • #138,082
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:04pm Dec 11, 2015 8:04pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Can we go lower ? {image}
Sure, why not. Its about AMR LOW plus 61.8 AMR if you apply ranges.
It looks good setup.
  • #138,083
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:15pm Dec 11, 2015 8:15pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Sure, why not. Its about AMR LOW plus 61.8 AMR if you apply ranges. It looks good setup.
for us.....

wonder how Russia/Venezuela/US/etc feel about it
  • #138,084
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:25pm Dec 11, 2015 8:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} for us..... wonder how Russia/Venezuela/US/etc feel about it
I think it will stop when Saudi King will say enough is enough. They are dealing with Iran and Russia to make them weaker enough not capable to effect Middle East anymore.
  • #138,085
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:31pm Dec 11, 2015 8:31pm
the weakest link will be the first to break - when the weak hands shake out, that production goes off and the old strong hands can work their game, let the price go back up. Where are the weakest links, who are the weak hands?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,086
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:49pm Dec 11, 2015 8:49pm
Perhaps Russia says to hell with the Middle East and starts a war. Already there anyway...

Perhaps the Saudi King gets assassinated...
  • #138,087
  • Dec 11, 2015 11:48pm Dec 11, 2015 11:48pm
what, war in the Middle East? Imagine that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,088
  • Dec 12, 2015 12:55am Dec 12, 2015 12:55am
http://www.businessinsider.com/carl-...5-12?r=UK&IR=T
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,089
  • Dec 12, 2015 9:56am Dec 12, 2015 9:56am
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled in the Euro for the triple play .... a very bearish daily close (for the intraday and short term legs) but 1.097x (@IMARICH1 surprise surprise in the area we rolled??? ... i hope not ...) held by a couple of ticks the W close for a neutral close (for the mid term swing) unlocking wide volatility (no surprises there either) not only for next week (FED obviously) but till year's end with a quick zigzag play ...but those details are for next week ... sisse
Hi sisse,
With current tension between ECB flop and Fed pre-hike in less than a week, what could possibly happen in FA side to unlocking levels beyond 1.11, 1.12 and etc for EURUSD a minute before Fed blast the 20+ bps hike? Or even big money to catch the classic "buy news, sell fact"?

or reverse scenario? Next Sunday open is the very beginning of real December'15 Fed hike leg and leading USD higher?

By daily close imo, euro bull wants higher place to evolve to bear and im tracking the 1.107/1.11 as the final station
  • #138,090
  • Dec 13, 2015 8:37pm Dec 13, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Can we go lower ? {image}
Fundamentally, We are at the end of oil era. We just dont know how long it will take to end...
  • #138,091
  • Dec 13, 2015 8:39pm Dec 13, 2015 8:39pm
Lets not forget the massive student debt....

Never forget that...
  • #138,092
  • Dec 14, 2015 2:08am Dec 14, 2015 2:08am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.businessinsider.com/carl-...5-12?r=UK&IR=T https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyKIvnied-o
Thanks for posting this!
  • #138,093
  • Edited 8:43am Dec 14, 2015 4:41am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes..... {quote} Why? The short term picture in a nutshell: --> ECB flop = No more QE which its a big BUMMER for the bastards trying to fleece the pig. --> FED rate hike pretty much guarantee next week = US equites on retrace will obviously carry the whole world There is nothing else in between for the next 2/3 weeks ...Why should equities rally beyond the current range until then? {quote} Indeed. IMO we pretty much covered the range for the 25/50bps in the summer with the preemtive SEP hike leg (via China mumbojumbo). We wont open much...
Hello sisse:

I don't see how you can say a FED rate hike pretty much guarantee next week . Why do you think that ?

Seems to me like the opposite. A rate hike will only guarantee that the US economy will down farther than it already has. Equities seem be reacting to that fear already. Yellen is the first woman chair of the Federal Reserve. Does she really want to be blamed for starting the next Great Depression ? She'll be wearing hoodies and dark sunglasses every where she goes for the rest of her life lol.

A more likely scenario I think would be for equities to continue to drop right in to the Fed meeting. The big announcement is no rate hike and equities bottom and go back up. Besides that there's a presidential election next year.
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,094
  • Edited 10:52am Dec 14, 2015 5:04am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello sisse: I don't see how you can say a FED rate hike pretty much guarantee next week . Why do you think that ? Seems to me like the opposite. A rate hike will only guarantee that the US economy will down farther than it already has. Equities seem be reacting to that fear already. Yellen is the first woman chair of the Federal Reserve. Does she really want to be blamed for starting the next Great Depression ? She'll be wearing hoodies every where she goes for the rest of her life lol. A more likely scenario I think would...
I think the equities are not problem right now as far as the decline does not turn into panic-risk-sell off of huge magnitude and that has definitelly not occured so far. On contrary Its natural for them to react with decline when the monetary tightening happens.

.........on this account some excerpts from this quite good article = http://economistsview.typepad.com/ti...-thinking.html

Yellen DEC speech:
"Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession."

"Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability."

.........

So I dont think the equation is just DEC hike = another great depression. I think its more like - the longer the zero bound rates go on the bigger risk-taking and malinvestment, which may turn even into bigger problem. The only problem is the inflation, which may be slowly ticking up but who knows if its gonna last - but given the unemployment and NAIRU idea its more likely its gonna last. If not we are in some very strange global De/Inflation/secular stagnation conditions, which the FED not anyone else really economically understands. But generally the pressure is between waiting for inflation to tick up vs. not waiting too long to distort everything by lower bound rates (which may have already happened).

So while noone knows what gonna happen this summarizes it nicely (same article)

"This then becomes a story of a Fed caught between a world in which the policy necessary to meet their inflation target is inconsistent with financial stability. That is what they call caught between a rock and a hard place. And my sense is that Yellen feels the best way to slip through those cracks is early and gentle tightening."

And if yellen is gonna be consistent with what she says = we already know the answer how FED plans to "answer" this dillema.
  • #138,095
  • Dec 14, 2015 8:16am Dec 14, 2015 8:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} for us..... wonder how Russia/Venezuela/US/etc feel about it
I agree with FOOL in this one. The weakest links will be the first to break... I personally not interested at all in fading a falling knife.

--> Since we lost 39.1x is only a sucker game in my books to call the ultimate bottom as we are trading air against macro flows with nobody siting on the other side.

--> In term of the geopolitical fundamentals i think we are about to see the collapse in the dominos. The weakest links are Venezuela, Nigeria, Ecuador and the like, that produce lower quality OIL and with higher cost of production.

 

  1. They are on the brink of political and economic collapse and they will ignite the start of the end for OIL. The populist already lost election last week in Venezuela after the terrible last decade fights and inflation is already in the point of no return with the economy in turmoil.

  1. Same for Nigeria and Ecuador which is even worst as it has the USD DOLLAR as currency (so no monetary way out of a short term shock) I was reading from the Economist, the 2016 budget is made with OIL at $70 currently WTI is below $36!!! and for these countries the price of 'less quality' OIL average around $26/$28 already..

  1. The second line of dominos are a bit more complex and are lead by Russia which has a deeper resistance to the shock as the geopolitical reason of putting the US shale out of business can make Russia play ball with lower prices much longer that its reasonable and financially optimum in the short term. On the other side of the spectrum is the US which is also on the brink of bursting the overhyped shale revolution. In the case of the US as usual greed and myopic short term gains drove to over investment and high risk. A couple of Quarters hovering below $40 will pretty much put a final nail on the coffin in the sector.

  1. Finally, the puppet masters, and the only ones that probably WONT fail is the rich Oil M. East countries lead by the Saudis. That have a huge mattress on reserves, a extremely low cost of production (Saudis, Kuwait, etc they can stand as low as $14/16 a barrel and still make operational profit) that will squeeze the HELL out of everybody (including other OPEC countries) . They will keep dragging prices down until they have get rid of a good chunk of the competition and then will start pumping up the price ...


In simple words, IMO its worth to check the geopolitical dominos falling in OIL first before looking for a sustainable bottom...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,096
  • Dec 14, 2015 9:07am Dec 14, 2015 9:07am
Quoting sisse
IMO its worth to check the geopolitical dominos falling in OIL first before looking for a sustainable bottom... sisse
Good post sisse. Everyone loves to pick a bottom catch a big bounce.....for oil, anyway at least I think you have to wait/see if a run of USD strength after the Fed hikes may not send it lower. Same story for other commods....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,097
  • Dec 14, 2015 9:14am Dec 14, 2015 9:14am
Excellent post, and exactly what I was looking for.

Great information, thanks! I knew the Saudis could go low...but jeez
  • #138,098
  • Dec 14, 2015 10:44am Dec 14, 2015 10:44am
Anyone of u guys prepositioning for FED/short/mid term swing on E/U (as discussed before)?

I have taken this intraday overshoot as an opp to short for all the plays mentioned. I expect retrace back and bearish D1 close. In any case, equities have not stabilized so far/Ive never traded actual hike -pump/dump before? - so I just play small positions. Anyone willing to share ur strategy for whats going on?
  • #138,099
  • Dec 14, 2015 10:46am Dec 14, 2015 10:46am
Quoting chester123
Anyone of u guys prepositioning for FED/short/mid term swing (as discussed before)? I have taken this intraday overshoot as an opp to short for all the plays mentioned. I expect retrace back and bearish D1 close. In any case, equities have not stabilized so far/Ive never traded actual hike -pump/dump before? - so I just play small positions. Anyone willing to share ur strategy for whats going on?
Shorted 1.1045

Looking for 1.1080

Unless this gets 70 pips away, I expect to get stopped out tomorrow on whipsaw
  • #138,100
  • Dec 14, 2015 11:59am Dec 14, 2015 11:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Shorted 1.1045 Looking for 1.1080 Unless this gets 70 pips away, I expect to get stopped out tomorrow on whipsaw
haha, seems we on the same boat

P.S. anyone tracking whats going on with high yield bonds and its possible implications for FED? maybe sisse? do not have access to data or knowledge of this kind (except for zero hedge, which is the opposite of any sort of objectivity)
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