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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #13,641
  • Dec 13, 2015 7:11pm Dec 13, 2015 7:11pm
hasnt bottomed yet....30M showing bullish divergence....still waiting for 183
  • #13,642
  • Edited 7:56pm Dec 13, 2015 7:44pm | Edited 7:56pm
Following the breakdown below the ichimoku hourly resistance (184.50/40 got slammed down hard), I decided to short on the bounce back up at around 183.820. Initial target at 183.30, provided it works, followed by 182.70/60 and 182.10/90.

If we DO go down, 183 might be a zone to watch out for; my guess is that it'll either be a scrap before a bounce back up or a catalyst to jump start further movement down once it breaks.

Given the failure to look positive on the daily chart on the ichimoku cloud (seriously, it's pretty hectic) and the continued move down bit by bit per day, I'd say that the odds of hitting below are high for now...only question is when. Then again, market might surprise us with some news announcement, which could change the game depending on what it is.

Edit: Curse my cowardice. Shorting from 184.50 would have made a GREAT scalping opportunity right off the bat. Did anyone get that spike down in the first two hours of the market? I know I didn't.

Edit 2: Hard SL at 184.150. Currently glued to the screen, so manual soft SL.
  • #13,643
  • Dec 13, 2015 8:34pm Dec 13, 2015 8:34pm
Does your broker show the pre market action?? fxcm used to....oanda never....DB yes, but their spread is normally 11 pips on this pair... forexbrokersinc...yezz ....IB used to ....alipari nada .....forex.com hail no......

in the old days we were trading 2 hours earlier....
  • #13,644
  • Dec 13, 2015 9:41pm Dec 13, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Does your broker show the pre market action?? fxcm used to....oanda never....DB yes, but their spread is normally 11 pips on this pair... forexbrokersinc...yezz ....IB used to ....alipari nada .....forex.com hail no...... in the old days we were trading 2 hours earlier....
Nope. Is it worth it? Isn't spread really high?
  • #13,645
  • Dec 13, 2015 10:12pm Dec 13, 2015 10:12pm
Yep, but I jump in .....on that 115 pip drop I took away 21 pips.....
  • #13,646
  • Dec 13, 2015 11:09pm Dec 13, 2015 11:09pm
Quoting Vermillion
Following the breakdown below the ichimoku hourly resistance (184.50/40 got slammed down hard), I decided to short on the bounce back up at around 183.820. Initial target at 183.30, provided it works, followed by 182.70/60 and 182.10/90. If we DO go down, 183 might be a zone to watch out for; my guess is that it'll either be a scrap before a bounce back up or a catalyst to jump start further movement down once it breaks. Given the failure to look positive on the daily chart on the ichimoku cloud (seriously, it's pretty hectic) and...
Still in the trade. Was close to closing, though. May close depending on whether the currency pair goes down in the next hour or two.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (233).png Size: 25 KB
  • #13,647
  • Dec 13, 2015 11:29pm Dec 13, 2015 11:29pm
Hey there...is that a 4H chart....I was checking the chinkou span....
  • #13,648
  • Dec 13, 2015 11:51pm Dec 13, 2015 11:51pm
Think we could get good scalping opportunities from now till FOMC. Gonna close everything before FOMC, too much uncertainty to trade effectively.
JPY will definitely be affected.
What do you guys think about the FOMC rate announcement? I'm thinking risk-off attitude all round hence temporary (even mid-term) strengthening of JPY.
I don't even dare to look at EURUSD or GBPUSD when FOMC rate is announced. Too much anticipation always = to added volatility.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #13,649
  • Dec 14, 2015 12:01am Dec 14, 2015 12:01am
looking for that 186.55 from the daily cloud.....where there was a flat top that sent the price down.
  • #13,650
  • Edited 1:24am Dec 14, 2015 12:19am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Still in the trade. Was close to closing, though. May close depending on whether the currency pair goes down in the next hour or two. {image}
Funny peaking on the 30min. chart. Moved SL slightly up and still kept the trade. Going by gut on this; gbp/jpy can easily test 184.50/20 before going down, based on past past data and occurrences. R:R is worse than before, but hey - it's the decision I made. If I win, it's back to the pre-planned route. If not, I'll bite the losses. Might close early, but definitely not moving up the SL further.

Que sera, sera.

Update: SL triggered. OUT.
  • #13,651
  • Dec 14, 2015 12:21am Dec 14, 2015 12:21am
Quoting YvetteTeo
Think we could get good scalping opportunities from now till FOMC. Gonna close everything before FOMC, too much uncertainty to trade effectively. JPY will definitely be affected. What do you guys think about the FOMC rate announcement? I'm thinking risk-off attitude all round hence temporary (even mid-term) strengthening of JPY. I don't even dare to look at EURUSD or GBPUSD when FOMC rate is announced. Too much anticipation always = to added volatility.
The ideal situation would be, but not always practical, is to clean up all positions tomorrow NY close. And Don't open any positions until Friday NY mid-day.

Like I said, this is only ideal but not always practical. Like you said, it'd be risk off. We should not take any risk for this very big event. Well, ok, just small risk less than 4% equity is fine.

Take a holiday, and come back on Friday NY midday. With Fresh trading, fresh mind, and fresh attitude. Have fun.
  • #13,652
  • Dec 14, 2015 12:39am Dec 14, 2015 12:39am
But we should find someplace to get long with a small stop......the last two years reversed on this day.......for a month in one case and for 8 months in the other.
  • #13,653
  • Dec 14, 2015 12:56am Dec 14, 2015 12:56am
Morning
GbpJpy Weekly pivot at 184.13, and 4hr RSI just below 50. Could be setting up for an RSI rejection of 50 and price a rejection of the Weekly Pivot. This hr candle needs to close above 184.11 for a drop.

Cable is also at Weekly Pivot of 5187, with 4hr RSI trending down toward the 50.

So we could have a setup to short GbpJpy at 184.08 when London opens if we are still here.

Alternatively, Franky could take price up 10 184.38, Then we have a different scenario. Will update just before London open
Forex, awful to watch, AWESOME to play
  • #13,654
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:04am Dec 14, 2015 1:04am
Quoting Feo
Morning GbpJpy Weekly pivot at 184.13, and 4hr RSI just below 50. Could be setting up for an RSI rejection of 50 and price a rejection of the Weekly Pivot. This hr candle needs to close above 184.11 for a drop. Cable is also at Weekly Pivot of 5187, with 4hr RSI trending down toward the 50. So we could have a setup to short GbpJpy at 184.08 when London opens if we are still here. Alternatively, Franky could take price up 10 184.38, Then we have a different scenario. Will update just before London open
thanks for the weekly pivot....
  • #13,655
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:10am Dec 14, 2015 1:10am
[quote=Gbp/jpy;8642753]{quote} thanks for the weekly

Pleasure

The double horizontal lines are the weekly pivot, whilst the dotted liens are daily pvots
Attached Image
Forex, awful to watch, AWESOME to play
  • #13,656
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:16am Dec 14, 2015 1:16am
Quoting frx_trader
{quote} The ideal situation would be, but not always practical, is to clean up all positions tomorrow NY close. And Don't open any positions until Friday NY mid-day. Like I said, this is only ideal but not always practical. Like you said, it'd be risk off. We should not take any risk for this very big event. Well, ok, just small risk less than 4% equity is fine. Take a holiday, and come back on Friday NY midday. With Fresh trading, fresh mind, and fresh attitude. Have fun.
My ideas precisely. Though I'm not sure if the broker's server can react fast enough to close a trade during the spike. Good if it goes our way, bad if it delays into losing more.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #13,657
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:21am Dec 14, 2015 1:21am
Back to the trades. Not going to rule out a retest of 185 before down again, theres an expanding channel with tops at 186.5+ and bottoms at 183-. With most of the daily range along the bottom half of the channel. if it breaks the half mark at 185, we could see it try to test 186.5. And if the channel stays strong, great swing/scalp trades.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #13,658
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:30am Dec 14, 2015 1:30am
Just a reminder. On a hectic day, your SL or TP may not be honored. Or your positions will be liquidated way off your SLs. So, There is no guarantee on SLs.
  • #13,659
  • Dec 14, 2015 3:29am Dec 14, 2015 3:29am
Oh my god
hxxcps://www.facebook.com/1583551051899987/videos/1665633003691791/
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #13,660
  • Dec 14, 2015 3:57am Dec 14, 2015 3:57am
Still not making any sense of the PA this week either... I think I'm done for the year, gonna get back to it ~5-6 Jan.

Happy holidays all!
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